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Comprehensive preview of this year's US Masters
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McIlroy and Scheffler head the market but look too short
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Two bets at 11.521/2 and 55.054/1 to go with 50/1 ante-post punt
Tournament History
The US Masters is the first major championship of the year so it's the first opportunity of 2023 for the LIV golfers to play alongside the rest of the world's elite.
The US Masters is the only one of the four majors that's played at the same venue every year - the iconic and stunning Augusta National.
Augusta National was founded at the start of the Great Depression and when the first edition of what was originally called the Augusta National Invitation Tournament was staged in 1934, the club had just 76 paid up members. That was someway short of the planned 1,800 and the inaugural winner, Horton Smith, along with all the top finishers, had to wait for 17 members to club together to raise the purse before he received his winnings.
Venue
Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia.
Course Details
Par 72, 7,545 yards
Scoring average in 2022 when 7,510 yards - 73.95
Originally the brainchild of Bobby Jones, Augusta National was founded by him and Clifford Roberts - a wealthy New York investment banker.
Designed by Jones and Alister Mackenzie, who died before the course was finished, Augusta National was built on the site of an old nursery and all the holes are named after a tree or shrub.
Augusta officially opened in January 1933, and it's been evolving ever since and to such an extent recently that the original designers would barely recognise the place.
The Bermuda greens were changed to bent grass and the fairways were tightened at the end of the last century before a major overhaul was orchestrated by Tom Fazio in 2002, when more than half the holes were lengthened and tightened.
Prior to the off last year, both the 11th and 15th holes were lengthened slightly (details here), and the changes made a difference.
The par four fifth had been the hardest hole on the course for the previous editions but 11 was the toughest in 2022 - averaging 4.48 - and for the first time since 1965, there were no eagle threes recorded on the 15th.
Another 35 yards have been added this time around, courtesy of an extension to the par five 13th.
Now measuring 7,545 yards, it's a long course and it plays even longer than its already demanding yardage because the fairways are all cut in the same direction - towards the tee-boxes - so balls tend to land and stop fairly quickly.
TV Coverage
The Par Three Competition is live on Sky Sports from 19:00 UK time on Wednesday and live coverage of the tournament itself starts at 14:00 on Thursday UK time, with several different options behind the Red Button.
Last 12 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2022 - Scottie Scheffler -10 19.018/1
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama -10 70.069/1
2020- Dustin Johnson -20 9.89/1
2019 - Tiger Woods -13 22.021/1
2018 - Patrick Reed -15 70.069/1
2017 - Sergio Garcia -9 50.049/1 (playoff)
2016 - Danny Willett -5 70.069/1
2015 - Jordan Spieth -18 13.012/1
2014 - Bubba Watson -8 28.027/1
2013 - Adam Scott -9 28.027/1 (playoff)
2012 - Bubba Watson -10 55.054/1 (playoff)
2011 - Charl Schwartzel -14 90.089/1
2010 - Phil Mickelson -16 11.010/1
What Will it Take to Win the US Masters?
To provide an at-a-glance picture of what's required at Augusta, here are the average ratings for the last 15 winners in all the key stats.
Driving Accuracy - 27.1
Driving Distance - 19.27
G.I.R - 6.33
Scrambling - 9.07
Putting Average - 11.27
Although Augusta is tree-lined, Driving Accuracy is the least important stat to consider. The trees are well-established, and the branches are high so errant drives aren't always punished. Length of the tee is advantageous and historically much more important than accuracy, but it hasn't been an absolute imperative of late.
Hideki Matsuyama, Tiger Woods, Danny Willett, Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel and Zach Johnson have all won here in the last 16 years with DD rankings of 47th, 44th, 32nd, 52nd, 40th and 57th respectively but most victors give it a good whack.
Scottie Scheffler ranked only 16th last year but Dustin Johnson, in November 2020, and the two winners before Tiger Woods in 2019, all ranked sixth for DD, seven of the last 15 winners have ranked inside the top-six for DD and Bubba Watson hit it further than anyone off the tee when he won his second Green Jacket in 2014.
Matsuyama only ranked seventh for Greens In Regulation in 2021 but the next three on the leaderboard ranked second, first and fourth and eight of the top-10 in the GIR rankings finished inside the top-10. Collin Morikawa, who finished tied for 18th, and Tommy Fleetwood, who finished tied for 46th, were the two who didn't.
The last two winners, Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama, have ranked fifth and seventh for Greens In Regulation but the two winners before them both ranked number one for GIR and 13 of the last 16 winners have ranked seventh or better so that's obviously a key stat and so too is Scrambling.
The 2019 winner, Woods, only ranked 47th for Scrambling but the last 15 winners have still averaged only 9.07 so the ability to get up-and-down repeatedly is vital.
Patrick Reed topped the Putting Average stats in 2018 and Scheffler ranked as high as fourth last year but Matsuyama only ranked 26th in 2021 and amongst the list of winners above are a number of players that have had their fair share of woes on the greens - including Matsuyama.
The fast, slopey, often treacherous, glass-like surfaces are hard for everyone and it almost levels the field out a bit.
To emphasise that further, the first and second in 2021, Matsuyama and Will Zalatoris, ranked 175th and 122nd for Strokes Gained Putting on the PGA Tour that season and the two playoff protagonists in 2017, Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose, ended the 2017 season ranking 112th and 168th for SGP so although I wouldn't go out of my way to find a poor putter, it's a bit of myth that only the best putters win here.
Strokes Gained stats have only been produced for the last two editions for the US Masters but they back up the traditional stats nicely.
The last two winners have both ranked second for SG: Tee to Green, they ranked sixth and fourth for SG: Approach, only ninth and 17th for SG: Off the Tee, and 13th and 23rd for SG: Putting but they ranked second and fourth for SG: Around the Green and as Dave Tindall highlights in his 10 year trends piece, seven of the top 11 finishers in 2021 ranked in the top 10 for SG: ATG and eight of the top 11 were in the top 12 for ATG last year.
Those stats show that the secrets to success here are to find plenty of greens and to get up-and-down successfully when one is missed but what's often the most important factor is how you play the long holes...
Here are the total scores to par for the last 15 winners on the par threes, fours and fives.
Par threes -9
Par fours -19
Par fives -129
The fact that Danny Willett won here in 2016 having played the long holes in just level par is astounding and it must be viewed as an anomaly. Garcia only played them in seven-under-par in 2017 and even that was an unusually low score.
Patrick Reed smashed them up five years ago -playing them in 13 under-par - despite failing to pick up a shot on any of the four on Sunday and the two winners before Scheffler both played them in 11 under-par.
Scheffler only played them in -8 but that was only bettered by Cam Smith (-9) so it looks like the changes to the 15th had quite a say.
Phil Mickelson played them in 13-under-par in 2006 and yet his winning total was just seven-under and even when relatively short hitter, Zach Johnson, won with an over par winning total 16 years ago, he still played the long holes in 11 under-par.
If you're only going to look at just one stat before the off, Par 5 performance would be the one I'd suggest.
Watch Our Masters Pod!
Sky Sports' Sarah Stiker quizzes Sporting Life's Ben Coley and our very own Dave Tindall on the best bets for Augusta success.
Angles In & Augusta Trends
Patrick Reed's course form coming into the championship, reading MC-22-49-MC, was pretty poor in 2018, and he was the first winner since Tiger Woods in 1997 to have missed the cut the previous year.
They're the only two winners not to have played rounds three and four in the year before they won since Fuzzy Zoeller won on debut in 1979 so not playing over the weekend on your previous visit is a significant negative.
Another no-no used to be backing anyone yet to break 70 around Augusta. Up until 2015, 23 of the previous 24 winners had all previously shot a round in the 60s but following Reed's win, and the victories of Jordan Spieth in 2015 and Danny Willett in 2016, three of the last eight winners had failed to break 70 before they won. And they hadn't played in the tournament as often as most winners either...
Both Spieth and Willett had only played Augusta once before they won and Scheffler, who had shot just one round in the 60s, was appearing for only the third time 12 months ago. And that really went against the grain given previous course form is usually vital.
Other than the first two winners of the event, Fuzzy Zoeller (in 1979) is still the only debutant to win the US Masters and most winners have been around Augusta National enough times to get to know its unique nuisances. On average, first time winners have played the event six times.
Although plenty of experience is a big plus and the average age of the winners is 32, age had been a bit of a barrier until 2019. Prior to Tiger's win at the age of 43, Mark O'Meara, who took the title at the age of 41 back in 1998, had been the last man to win in his 40s.
Hot recent form a big plus
Course form stands up really well and past winners have a fine record, with as many as 17 different players having won the title more than once, but over the last decade, strong current form has often counted for plenty.
Matsuyama managed to win two years ago despite a relatively poor start to the year.
He'd finished 30th in the Valero Texas Open in his penultimate start and in ten previous starts in 2021, 15th at the WGC Workday Championship was his best finish but since Phil Mickelson won his third title in 2010, having produced just one top-ten from seven previous starts that year (eighth at the AT&T Pebble Beach), every winner bar Matsuyama has telegraphed their wellbeing.
Scheffler arrived at Augusta with current for figures reading 1-7-1-55-1.
Riviera form a huge pointer
Following DJ's victory in 2020, a total of 12 Masters Champions have now won 24 editions of the Genesis Invitational and Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Sam Snead, Ben Hogan and Tom Watson have all won multiple PGA Tour events at both Riviera and Augusta, so the courses obviously correlate nicely.
DJ had previously won the US Open and Tiger Woods won the US Masters for a fifth time in 2019 but nine of the last 12 US Masters winners were winning their first major championship and that's a general trend across all the majors.
As many as 20 of the last 29 (69%) major championships have gone to a first-time major winner so don't be surprised if we get another but do expect them to feature highly in the Official World Rankings because 42 of the last 43 majors have been won by someone inside the world's top-50. The odd man out is Phil Mickelson who defied all sorts of logic at the 2021 US PGA Championship when he won at the age of 51 - ranking 115th in the world.
Think twice about backing one of last year's contenders
Although course form stands up well and multiple winners are fairly common, Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods are the only players to win the US Masters back-to-back and something I've touched on in previous years is the poor performances often put up by players that contended the year before.
A number of 2019 contenders were in-the-mix in 2020 and the winner, DJ, had finished tied for second behind Tiger in the previous renewal but because of the pandemic, the 2020 edition was played in November and there was 19 months between the two renewals. That may have been a reason why we saw a couple of 2019 contenders back in the mix because it's been business as usual over the last two years.
Ordinarily, the contenders at the previous renewal tend to struggle and I suspect it's something to do with mindset. Having held a chance to win the year before, expectations are no doubt higher the following year and that may explain why so many fail to figure. As a demonstration, here's the top-10s from 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021 with their finishing positions the following year in brackets.
2017
1 Sergio Garcia (MC)
2 Justin Rose (12th)
3 Charl Schwartzel (MC)
T4 Matt Kuchar (28th)
T4 Thomas Pieters DNP
6 Paul Casey (15th)
T7 Rory McIlroy (5th)
T7 Kevin Chappell DNP
T9 Ryan Moore DNP
T9 Adam Scott (32nd)
2018
1 Patrick Reed (T36)
2 Rickie Fowler (T9)
3 Jordan Spieth (T21)
4 Jon Rahm (T9)
5 Rory McIlroy (T21)
5 Cameron Smith (T51)
5 Henrik Stenson (T36)
5 Bubba Watson (T12)
9 Marc Leishman (T49)
10 Tony Finau (T5)
10 Dustin Johnson (T2)
2020
1 Dustin Johnson (MC)
2 Sungjae Im (MC)
2 Cameron Smith (10)
4 Justin Thomas (21)
5 Rory McIlroy (MC)
5 Dylan Frittelli (MC)
7 Jon Rahm (5)
7 Brooks Koepka (MC)
7 CT Pan (MC)
10 Corey Conners (8)
10 Webb Simpson (12)
10 Patrick Reed (8)
2021
1 Hideki Matsuyama (14)
2 Will Zalatoris (6)
3 Xander Schauffele (MC)
3 Jordan Spieth (MC)
5 Jon Rahm (27)
5 Marc Leishman (30)
7 Justin Rose (MC)
8 Corey Connors (6)
8 Patrick Reed (35)
10 Cam Smith (3)
10 Tony Finau (35)
Last Ten Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2022 - Scottie Scheffler - led by three 1.584/7
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama - led by four 1.9420/21
2020 - Dustin Johnson - led by four 1.422/5
2019 - Tiger Woods - tied second, trailed by two 4.94/1
2018 - Patrick Reed - led by three strokes 2.265/4
2017 - Sergio Garcia - tied for the lead with Justin Rose 6.05/1
2016 - Danny Willett - tied for fifth, trailing by three 22.021/1
2015 - Jordan Spieth - led by four 1.51/2
2014 - Bubba Watson - tied for the lead with Jordan Spieth 4.67/2
2013 - Adam Scott - solo third - trailing by a stroke 5.14/1
In-Play Tactics
Up with the pace is the place to be at Augusta. DJ led or co-led after every round in 2020, Spieth also won wire-to-wire in 2015 and six of the last nine winners have led after both rounds two and three. Scheffler sat third, trailing by two, before making all the running after a five-under-par 67 in round two.
Tiger sat tied for 11th and four of the lead after the opening round in 2019 but that's the only time any winner had sat outside the top-ten since he sat tied for 33rd and seven off the lead way back in 2005.
Augusta National is NOT a catch-up course and a fast start is imperative.
Tiger and Phil Mickelson repeatedly buck the trends at Augusta and they're the only two men to win the event having finished day one outside of the top-10 since Mark O'Meara won from tied 25th and five off the pace 25 years ago.
The weather wasn't great on Friday afternoon last year and the PM-AM side of the draw averaged 0.41 strokes better than their AM-PM counterparts but that didn't stop Scheffler, who's 67 on Friday afternoon to seize the initiative, was a great knock.
As many as four of the last five winners have now had a morning tee-time on Thursday but (weather permitting) I'd still just favour an afternoon start on Thursday...
The 2020 winner, Dustin Johnson, was drawn in the afternoon on day one and he was the eighth winner to be assigned a PM tee-time in 10 years. Tiger Woods was drawn late in the morning (11:04) for his opening round in 2019 and Patrick Reed was the first winner in eight years to be drawn in the morning on day one in 2018, but he too teed off late in the morning, at 11:15.
Pace yourself - it's a long week
It's very tempting to avidly watch the first day's play in its entirety but be careful not to be fatigued too soon. Scheffler was the sixth halfway leader to win in nine years and those that stuck with it until late on Friday last year were best positioned to get onboard at an attractive price in-play.
Market Leaders
Augusta Form: 20-MC-15-40-25-8-4-10-7-5-21-5-MC-2
2023 Form: 1-32-29-2-MC-3
Major Count: - Four
Last year's runner-up finish is officially Rory Milroy's highest finish at Augusta but it's far from the closest he's come to winning the event.
After opening with a pair of 73s 12 months ago, Rory began the weekend tied for 23rd and 10 strokes off the lead and he still trailed by 10 with a round to go following a 71 on Saturday.
Tied for ninth and trading at in excess of 400.0399/1 on Sunday morning, McIlroy was never really in the hunt and the margin of his defeat (three strokes) was deceptive. Scottie Scheffler four-putted the last to record a double-bogey six and Rory produced this bit of magic on the 72nd hole.
He came very close to winning the title way back in 2011 before a back-nine collapse saw him finish 15th and he's had other chances too.
He's very well suited to the venue and his driving was much-improved at the WGC Match Play last time out but with a couple of PGA Championship titles, an Open Championship and a US Open win to his name, this is the one he needs to complete the major grand-slam and he's well aware of that.
Without a major victory in nine years, it's impossible to argue a case for him being a decent price given he went off at more than 20/1 last year.
Augusta Form: 19-18-1
2023 Form: 7-11-1-12-4-1-4
Major Count: - One
Having defended his Phoenix Open title in February and won the Players Championship last month, the defending champ traded at odds-on to defend his WGC Match Play title last time out, so the world number one arrives in great form but as already highlighted, defending champions have a very poor record.
Jordan Spieth finished second when defending in 2016 and he really should have won given he led by five with only nine holes to play (matched at a low of just 1.091/11) but three of the last six defending champions have missed the cut and Spieth's the only one to finish inside the top-12 since Tiger finished third way back in 2006. It really is a big negative.
Augusta Form: 27-4-9-7-5-27
2023 Form: 1-1-7-3-1-39-W-31
Major Count: - one
Having signed off 2022 with wins in Spain and Dubai, he kicked off the year in fine style with back-to-back victories in the Tournament of Champions and The American Express and he added another comfortable win at Riviera in February but he's just lost his way fractionally after leading the Arnold Palmer Invitational by a couple of strokes after round one.
After an opening 65, the Spaniard finished 39th at Bay Hill before having to withdraw at the Players after the opening round the following week due to illness. And he didn't set the world alight last time out, losing two of his three group matches at the WGC Match Play and he's the big drifter at the head of the market.
Having been matched at a low of 8.07/1, he's now out to 11.521/2 and that's only two ticks shorter than the price he went off at last year.
With four top-tens bookended by a pair of 27th placed finishes, Rahm has a very respectable bank of form and if he's fit and firing and back in the form he was a month ago, he's a great price.
Augusta Form: 2-1-2-11-3-21-46-3-MC
2023 Form: 13-MC-63-6-MC-4-19-3-31
Major Count: - Three
Anyone believing in omens or maybe even divine intervention will be onboard the 2015 winner given the below but he's not for me.
Spieth has been in more consistent form of late but I'm not entirely sure he'll ever get over his collapse here in 2016 and he's not the reliable contender in contention he once was. Absolutely loves it here but I'm happy to swerve him.
Augusta Form: 55-5-51-2-10-3
2023 Form: MC-5-24
Major Count: - One
With an impressive bank of Augusta form, the reigning Open Champ, Cam Smith, is the shortest contender in the field that now plies his trade on the LIV Golf Tour.
Currently playing in the LIV Golf Invitational Orlando, along with former Masters winners, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson and Patrick Reed, Smith has looked a shadow of the player that won the 150th Open at St Andrews - although in fairness, he's not played much.
This will be just his fourth start of the year so he's likely to be undercooked and he also needs to get over his finish 12 months ago when he found Rae's Creek off the tee on the 12th when still in with a shout.
Selections
I'll be back later in the week with a look at the outsiders with the Find Me a 100 Winner column, and I'll also get stuck into the side markets at some point but for now my only two picks before the off are Jon Rahm and Sungjae Im.
The front two in the market are half the price that they went off at 12 months ago, whereas Rahm is just two points shorter, and yet, he's played some of the best golf of his career over the last six months.
As highlighted earlier, a fast start is key here so he was very upset after round one 12 months ago when he felt the luck wasn't with him.
"Played great golf, got four mud balls. What am I going to do about that? That's what it is. It's bad luck, and that's what p****s me off. That's all I can say."
He knew he was too far back after his opening 74 and I'm happy to dismiss it.
The 2020 winner, Dustin Johnson, is a tempting price at over 30.029/1. Playing LIV Golf is a negative, as it simply isn't as competitive as the PGA Tour, but DJ's such a laid back individual that I'm not sure that's as much as an issue with him as it would be with the others.
DJ finished sixth at the Open in July not long after making the switch and I can see him contending but my only other pre-event pick is Sungjae Im.
Having finished second to DJ on debut in November 2020, it was no surprise to see him miss the cut the following April but he clear likes the venue and he's playing quite nicely this year.
Im led after round one 12 months ago, in just his third appearance, and he was still in third place with a round to go before a sorry 75 on Sunday saw him slip to eighth.
In search of his first major and ranking highly for all the right stats, the world number 18 ticks plenty of boxes and he's simply too big at 55.054/1.
I also backed Tony Finau ante-post at 50/1 last summer and he's quite a bit shorter now but I'm not convinced he's playing anywhere near well enough.
Selections:
Jon Rahm @ 11.521/2
Sungjae Im @ 55.054/1
Tony Finau - ante-post @ 50/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter