The Punter's US Masters In-PLay Blog: Hot Hovland muscles in with a round to go

• Koepka two clear with a round to go

• Rahm hangs in despite scruffy back-nine

• Can Viktor pounce from off the pace again?

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17:40 April 9, 2023

Jon Rahm was matched at a low of 1.9420/21 to win the US Masters when he got to within a solitary stroke of Brooks Koepka after 12 holes of round three today, but he hit the skids a bit after that, playing his next four holes in two-over-par - three putting both the par five 14th and 15th holes.

Koepka has already been matched at a low of 1.758/11 but having led by three with two to play, a bogey at 17 has just closed things up with a round to go and we certainly can't dismiss the man in third - Viktor Hovland - who birdied five holes in-a-row from the 11th to throw his hat in the ring.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:30.

Brooks Koepka -11 2.26/5
John Rahm -9 2.8815/8
Viktor Hovland -8 8.27/1
Patrick Cantlay -6 22.021/1
Hideki Matsuyama -5 60.059/1
Russell Henley -5 160.0159/1
-4 and 140.0139/1 bar

Since Nick Faldo caught and passed Greg Norman in 1996, having trailed by six with a round to go, every winner of the US Masters has been within four of the lead with a round to go and six of the last eight victors were tied for the lead or leading. Advantage Koepka.

That is perhaps slightly misleading though as the last four to convert from the front led by either three or four strokes. It isn't quite as easy to get it done when the lead is only two...

Brooks Koepka: 10th player in Masters history to lead by (exactly) 2 shots entering the final round

4 of the previous 9 went on to win.

? Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 9, 2023

Tiger Woods, who sat second, trailing by two, in 2019, is the last man to win that wasn't leading after three rounds and Danny Willett won from fifth and three back as recently as 2015.

The stats tell us that Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama are too far back, but Hovland is a factor - especially when we consider that he won both the Hero Challenge in December 2021 and the Dubai Desert Classic a month later, having trailed by six with a round to go. Expect the Norwegian to go for it.

Now back on track, the fourth and final round began at 17:30 UK time and the two leaders will tee off at 19:30. I'll be back in the morning with the De-brief.

22:20 April 8, 2023

With so much rain in the forecast, it was always going to be a tough task to catch up after Friday's early suspension in play and after water had started to pool on the greens, and with no sign of the rain easing, play was abandoned for the day at the US Masters at 15:15 local time.

Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm were separated by just two strokes at the halfway stage and Rahm was matched at a low of 2.01/1 when he looked like he might cut the deficit at the par five second.

After matching pars at the first, the Spaniard hit his second shot on two into 23 feet and after Koepka had played his third to seven feet from the greenside bunker, there was a slight chance of a two-shot swing, but it wasn't to be. Rahm two-putted for birdie and Brooks sunk the seven-footer to match him.

Rahm then bogeyed the fourth after a poor tee-shot and when he three-putted the fifth to record back-to-back bogeys, Koepka's lead was doubled and he was matched at a low of 1.845/6.

Both men parred the sixth but there's a strong possibility we'll get a change at the top when play resumes tomorrow...

After a poor drive, Koepka will face an 11-foot par save on the seventh, whereas Rahm has a birdie putt from inside ten feet, so it's odds-on they go to the eighth tee separated by three.

Obviously, we'll never know what would have happened if they'd have been able to get their third rounds completed today but I suspect the suspension helps Rahm more than it does Koepka.

The pre-event 11.521/2 chance was starting to look a bit ragged after having to finish up his second round in the rain this morning and a good night's sleep will do him the world of good.

The third round will restart at 8:30 local time (13:30 UK time) and the fourth and final round is expected to begin at 12:30 (17:30 UK time) off holes 1 and 10 in pairings.

Here's the latest standings with prices to back and holes played in round three at 22:00.

Brooks Koepka -13 (thru 7) 1.9620/21
Jon Rahm -9 (thru 7) 2.8415/8
Sam Bennett -6 (thru 7) 170.0169/1
Viktor Hovland -5 (thru 7) 46.045/1
Collin Morikawa -5 (thru 7) 55.054/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -5 (thru 11 55.054/1
Patrick Cantlay -5 (thru 13) 60.059/1
-4 and 150.0149/1 bar

How the front two finish up on seven is going to have a huge bearing on how the day pans out and as a Rahm backer, I'd take the Spaniard reducing the gap to three.

Rahm has played considerably more golf than the American over the last few months and after a night's rest, Rahm will have a reasonable chance of reeling him in over 29 holes.

With much improved weather tomorrow, it's very difficult to imagine both Koepka and Rahm playing poorly enough to let any of the chasers in but I'll be back for a quick look at the state of play after three rounds tomorrow.

16:50 - April 8, 2023

It was impossible not to be impressed with how well Jon Rahm battled this morning to get to within two strokes of Brooks Koepka in the 87th edition of the US Masters and he now heads the market at halfway. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:40.

Brooks Koepka -12 2.6813/8
Jon Rahm -10 2.568/5
Sam Bennett -8 70.069/1
Collin Morikawa -6 25.024/1
Viktor Hovland -6 29.028/1
Jordan Spieth -5 32.031/1
Cameron Young -5 42.041/1
Jason Day -5 48.047/1
Sam Burns -5 55.054/1
-4 and 90.089/1 bar

Rahm finished his second round birdie-bogey-birdie-bogey and there was certainly a slight element of fortune with his birdie at the 17th. Putting from just off the green, his birdie putt was travelling when it hit the pin and dropped, and he'd have had a very testing par save had his aim not been spot on.

Having begun the day needing to make a two putt par from over 50 feet on the tenth, and with the rain falling relentlessly, Rahm will have been delighted to play his back-nine in one-under-par.

In contrast, Rahm's playing partner, Justin Thomas, shot a six-over-par 42 to miss the cut by a stroke.

The conditions really were poor, so Rahm's knock was a sensational effort and he's the correct favourite with two rounds to play.

The rain continued to fall as the players were interviewed after their rounds and it's predicted to continue all day long.

Given the conditions, the organisers have taken the sensible decision to have the groups go out in threes and off the first and the tenth.

Sepp Straka, Harold Varner and Dustin Johnson, who are all on -1 and in a tie for 28th, were the first trio off the 10th hole at 16:30 UK time and Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay and Adam Scott, who are all on -2, started on the first at 16:30.

The final three-ball will start their third rounds at 18:06 UK time.

It's very hard to see past the front two now and I'm happy to be onboard Rahm. He's already played half a round in draining conditions today and fatigue could be an issue as the day wares on but on the other hand, having experienced the very different conditions already, he may have a slight advantage over Koepka.

Hopefully, the course stands up to the relentless rain and we can get back on track, but the pace of play is going to be slow and there'll be plenty of squeegee action from the greens staff!

10:30 - April 8, 2023

After a benign and sunny morning, the rain finally arrived after lunch yesterday afternoon at Augusta and the wind picked up.

After a brief pause in play just after three, with the wind blowing hard enough to bring down trees, play was inevitably suspended for the day at 16:22 at the US Masters, with Brooks Koepka safely in the house and leading by three.

Another view of the trees falling on 17 pic.twitter.com/jR431IcdLv

? No Laying Up (@NoLayingUp) April 8, 2023

Beginning his second round just after 8:00, pre-event 55.054/1 chance, Koepka, comfortably completed his second round and he did so impressively - shooting a five-under-par 67 to back up Thursday's brilliant 65.

Pre-event 34.033/1 chance, Jason Day, was matched at a low of 5.85/1 when he gave himself a five-footer at the par four 14th to get to within two of Koepka but he missed the birdie putt there, chunked his third into the water at 15 to record a double-bogey seven before two more shots were lost coming in. No doubt slightly flustered after what had occurred on 14 and 15, the Aussie bogeyed both 16 and 18 and he now trails by seven!

Teeing off late in the day, after a steady start to his second round (six straight pars), pre-event 11.521/2 shot, Jon Rahm, made a great par at seven after a poor drive and the first weather suspension.

The horn went for the first suspension just after he'd played his third shot from the greenside bunker, so it was a fabulous finish to the day after the break. The Spaniard cooly rolled in the nine-foot par save at seven before recording back-to-back birdies at eight and nine.

The world number three trails Koepka by three with nine holes of his second round still to play and he'll return to the course this morning (weather permitting) with a daunting two-putt for par from 54 feet on the 10th green.

The world number one and defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, continued to putt poorly yesterday. He looks completely out of it after a three-over-par 75 which sees him trail by 11 and the pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, has been especially disappointing again. After rounds of 72 and 77, the world number two has missed the cut.

Here's the current standings, together with holes left to play in round two and prices to back at 10:25.

Brooks Koepka -12 2.747/4
Jon Rahm -9 3.39/4 (thru 9)
Sam Bennett -8 55.054/1
Collin Morikawa -6 21.020/1
Viktor Hovland -6 22.021/1 (thru 10)
Cameron Young -5 25.024/1 (thru 9)
Jordan Spieth -5 29.028/1
Jason Day -5 46.045/1
Sam Burns -5 55.054/1
-4 and 60.059/1 bar

With a forecast suggesting high winds and heavy rain all day long today, it's anyone's guess what's going to happen today and there's a chance that the answer is nothing.

Should play resume as planned at 8:00, Rahm and co are going to have their work cut out to remain as close as they are to Koepka and the 2.767/4 that the leader trades at currently could prove to be a great price.

On the other hand, should they manage to play all day today, the second round gets completed nice and quickly and the third round gets played, Koepka looks short enough.

Wild weather can create wild leaderboard changes and Jordan Spieth, who trails by seven, nailed it when interviewed yesterday.

"You're going to get tee balls that just - you get water balls, you're just going to have to manage a lot. In some cases, you could argue that's a good thing to have a big lead, but in other cases you could argue if he kind of falters a little and you kind of are able to shoot an under-par round somehow, you could make up a lot of strokes easily."

Another possible scenario, and one that is probably the fairest, is that we don't get any play at all today. If that happens, everything changes and Rahm and co will have caught a break.

The tournament will go into a fifth day and with benign weather predicted for Sunday and Monday - if those needing to finish up their second rounds didn't get to do so today, they'll get to play in favourable conditions early tomorrow.

With so many unknowns, I'm happy to sit on my hands today and see what happens. As a Rahm backer before the off, I'm hoping he can somehow get in the house without dropping any shots if they do play this morning, but no play today would be the ideal scenario.

If they do get to play today and they do reach the halfway stage, Koepka is going to take some catching given six of the last nine winners led at halfway.

Charl Schwartzel, who birdied the last four holes to win the 2011 edition, sat tied for 12th and six adrift at halfway but he's the only winner this century to be outside the top-seven with two rounds to play.

17:50 - April 7, 2023

In benign, dry early morning conditions, Brooks Koepka has pulled clear of the field at the US Masters and if the poor weather materialises as predicted he should end the second round in front.

At the time of writing, he's on -12 with just one hole of round two to play and he leads by three over Jason Day, who has five to play.

Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm, who were tied with Koepka after the opening round, are yet to begin their second rounds.

If we knew the weather was going to be as horrendous as forecasted, Koepka would most definitely be the play but I'm far from convinced it's going to be as awful this afternoon it was predicted to be earlier.

Koepka is currently trading at 2.962/1 but if the rain isn't too bad and the wind doesn't pick up markedly, that could look short by tomorrow.

The pre-event first and second favourites, the grand slam-seeking Rory McIlroy, and the defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, have performed poorly so far today and both are over-par and seemingly out of it. Scheffler is putting every bit as poorly as he did yesterday and Rory may not even make the cut!

Brooks is very nearly in for the day, and he'll be hoping the wind and rain arrive soon but it's going to be quite a change in the weather as it looks fine at present.

10:40 - April 7, 2023

The US Masters favourite, Rory McIlroy, teed it up at Augusta National for the 15th time yesterday and for the 13th time on day one, he failed to break 70.

Matched at a low of just 7.06/1 before the off, hopes were high that the world number two could finally complete the major grand slam this year but after a level-par 72 to begin the 87th edition of the US Masters, Rory is going to have to defy the stats if he's to join the five greats to have achieved the feat - Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods.

Trailing by seven in tie for 37th, Rory is now trading at 29.028/1 but that looks short given multiple Masters winners, Nick Faldo (1990) and Tiger Woods (2005), are the only two victors to trail by seven after the first round.

As highlighted yesterday, up with the pace is the place to be at Augusta. The last 17 winners, and 70 of the 86 previous champions, were all inside the top 11 after 18 holes but I'm not convinced we can boldly put a line through the four class acts siting tied for 13th and just four off the lead. In fact, I've backed two of them...

Despite Rory's slow start, it really is a quality leaderboard after the opening day with ten of the top-16 having already won a major. Here's the first-round leaderboard with prices to back at 10:10.

Jon Rahm -7 4.57/2
Brooks Koepka -7 8.615/2
Viktor Hovland -7 13.012/1
Jason Day -5 16.531/2
Cameron Young -5 21.020/1
Scottie Scheffler -4 7.06/1
Xander Schauffele -4 28.027/1
Sam Burns -4 36.035/1
Shane Lowry -4 46.045/1
Adam Scott -4 95.094/1
Gary Woodland -4 120.0119/1
Sam Bennett -4 550.0549/1
Jordan Spieth -3 28.027/1
Tony Finau -3 34.033/1
Collin Morikawa -3 38.037/1
Justin Rose -3 65.064/1
-2 and 29.028/1 bar

The first thing to bear in mind this morning is the appalling weather forecast.

Play has been moved forward by half-an-hour today but it's hard to believe we won't get a disruption in play over the next 48 hours and a Monday finish can't be ruled out.

Today should begin nicely enough but the rain is predicted to start before lunchtime, and it doesn't look like stopping before Sunday! Add in some blustery winds this afternoon and we look set for a turbulent time.

On paper, the early starters should enjoy the better of it today and if it pans out like that, Brooks Koepka could be the man to back this morning.

The four-time major winner, who now plies his trade on the LIV Golf Tour, will begin his second round at 8:18 which is almost two hours before the defending champ and second favourite, Scottie Scheffler, and exactly five hours before the new favourite, Jon Rahm.

Having been in the wilderness for the first part of 2023, Koepka won the LIV Golf League Orlando event last week (his second LIV victory) so he came into the event hot and he tends to hang around when he starts nicely.

On the last six occasions that he's led or co-led after round one he's finished first or second and that includes here back in 2019 when he finished tied for second behind Woods, having sat tied for the lead through rounds one and two.

He opened last week's event with a 62 before firing rounds of 67 and 69 to win but his price this morning looks fair and no more today.

After his bizarre double-bogey start yesterday, Rahm is the man to beat according to the market this morning and I'm not about to disagree with it.

Inspired by Seve's famous "I miss. I miss. I miss. I make." quote as he wondered to the second tee, Rahm bounced back brilliantly.

No player on record has double bogeyed the first hole and gone on to win #theMasters pic.twitter.com/ZcwRapNIu7

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 6, 2023

Rahm has an impressive bank of Augusta form figures reading 27-4-9-7-5-27 and yet he's only once before finished inside the top-12 after round one and yesterday's 65 is four shots better than he's ever managed on a Thursday here previously.

The Spaniard hit all 18 fairways and all but one of the 18 greens in regulation and if he can continue like that, he'll romp home.

Of the three players tied for the lead, Viktor Hovland is the one I fancy the least. He scrambled and putted brilliantly yesterday but he currently ranks 166th on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 79th for SG: Putting.

Yesterday was the first time the Norwegian has broken 70 around Augusta and in three previous visits here, he's yet to finish inside the top-20.

The defending champion, Scottie Scheffler couldn't have scored much worse than his four-under-par 68 yesterday and if the putter warms up, he has an outstanding chance of becoming just the fourth man in his history to successfully defend but that's a big if.

Scheffler's putting often holds him back and he doesn't look a great price.

The WGC Match Play finalists, Sam Burns and Cameron Young, who both missed the cut here 12 months ago on their only previous appearances, have started nicely, and so too has Xander Schauffele, who has Masters form figures reading 50-2-17-3-MC.

Jason Day's fine form has continued and fellow Aussie, Adam Scott, is a big price to win his second Masters title, ten years after his first, but I've backed three different major winners in-play this morning - starting with the Augusta specialist - Jordan Spieth.

Sitting on three-under-par in a tie for 13th, the 2015 winner is fractionally too far back according to recent history, but he should be a lot closer to the lead and if he can stop making daft decisions, I can see him being there or thereabouts at the end.

Spieth's decision to go for the green from the pine straw on the par five 13th looked a daft one at the time and so it proved. Instead of setting up an eagle opportunity, Spieth's approach found Raes Creek, leading to double-bogey seven, and he admitted it was poor judgement after his round.

"It was a really bad decision," Spieth admitted. "Instead of lining up to cut it to the middle of the green, I lined up to cut it to the pin from the middle of the green hoping it would come out flat and straight and just trying to kind of feed one in for eagle versus just being okay with having an inside 10 feet for birdie. Just a mistake I don't normally make out here that was really frustrating."

Alongside Spieth and with improving Augusta numbers reading 44-18-5, Collin Morikawa looked a reasonable price at 40.039/1.

Like Spieth, Morikawa has an early tee time today and if a draw bias does materialise in favour of those drawn PM-AM, the two-time major champ looks over-priced.

And finally, if it does turn into a wet and windy war of attrition over the next three or even four days, few are better equipped than the 2019 Open Champion, Shane Lowry, who's silky skills on and around the greens saw him finish third 12 months ago.

The Irishman looked very fairly priced at 48.047/1.

17:40 - April 5, 2023

The pre-event third favourite, Jon Rahm, could barely have started the 87th edition of the US Masters any worse - four-putting the opening hole to record a double-bogey six - and he's been matched at a high of 26.025/1.

To his credit, the Spaniard responded brilliantly with back-to-back birdies at two and three, as his playing partner, Cameron Young, began with three birdies on the spin to take the early lead.

Rahm backers can take heart from Cam Smith's performance 12 months away. He opened last year's renewal with a double-bogey but went on to shoot a four-under-par 68 to end the day in solo second, just one off the lead.

Rahm has added another birdie at seven but he'll need to keep the pedal down as a slow start here is usually disastrous.

16 of the last 17 Masters champions were at/within 4 shots of the lead after round 1.

? Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 6, 2023

Since Phil Mickelson sat tied for 15th and five back in 2004, Tiger Woods, in 2005 and 2019, is the only player to win the US Masters having been outside the top-10 after round one and no US Masters winner has trailed by any more than seven strokes after the opening round. Nick Faldo in 1990 and Tiger Woods in 2005 are the only two victors to trail by seven after the first round.

It's highly unlikely that we'll be witnessing win number six for Woods this year though. At the time of writing, he's two-over-par through eight and six behind the early pacesetter Viktor Hovland, who's playing some gorgeous golf.

Already matched at a low of 10.09/1, the pre-event 50.049/1 chance has a tiny putt at nine to get to five-under.

16:45 - April 5, 2023

The 87th edition of the US Masters is now less than 24 hours away so I thought I'd kick the blog off with a little look at the weather, the draw, and of course, the betting.

The rains fell in the days before the off 12 months ago, causing a slightly delayed start, but it's due to hit us a bit later this year and unfortunately, there is a threat of thunder.

Tomorrow looks like being a dry day with only light winds - although it's predicted to be somewhat gustier first thing - before the rain arrives on Friday.

The wind is anticipated to be light again on day two - although it is forecasted to pick up slightly as the day wares on.

The rain is predicted to be light on Friday until the evening and then we look all set for a very wet day on Saturday before the front moves on before Sunday's fourth and final round.

As always, forecasts can only be used as a guide but if the weather does pan out as expected, there should be a slight advantage to those drawn PM-AM and that's nothing new at Augusta...

Ordinarily, I prefer my picks to be assigned an AM-PM draw and Tiger Woods, who tees of at 10:18 on Thursday and 13:24 on Friday, will be glad of the break in-between rounds, given his age and injuries, but an early start on day one has been quite a hindrance here of late.

Playing in the 10th group out on Thursday morning two years ago, Hideki Matsuyama had an early tee-time on day one. He kicked off the championship at 9:48 but incredibly, he's the only winner in the last 12 years to kick off the event before 11:00am.

Patrick Reed, in 2018, was the first player in eight years to go on to win having been drawn AM-PM but like Tiger Woods in 2019, and Scottie Scheffler 12 months ago, Reed began his first round late in the morning on Thursday.

Reed teed off at 11:15, Woods began the championship at 11:04 and Scottie started last year's renewal at 11:26 on Thursday.

The well-fancied third favourite, Jon Rahm, has been assigned an AM-PM draw, and he tees off tomorrow at 10:42. That looks like a sizable disadvantage if recent history is anything to go by.

Rory McIlroy has hardened up at the head of the market - now trading at 8.615/2 on the Betfair Exchange - and Scottie Scheffler is a solid 9.08/1 chance. Both have been assigned the potentially advantageous late-early draw.

Playing in the penultimate three-ball alongside Sam Burns and Tom Kim, Rory tees off at 13:48, 12 minutes after Scheffler, Max Homa and the amateur, Sam Bennett.

Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau are last out at 14:00, which is 19:00 UK time.

Dave Tindall has had a look a the First Round Leader market here, but again, concentrating on the latter starters makes sense.

The 2020 edition was a very different renewal. Played in November following the pandemic, with reduced daylight and cooler conditions, we had a two-tee start (players began on the first or the 10th hole) but two of the three co-leaders began in the afternoon and Paul Casey, who was tied for the lead alongside Dylan Frittelli and the wire-to-wire winner in 2020, Dustin Johnson, is the only first round leader/co-leader to have a morning tee time in the last six years.

The defending champion, Jordan Spieth, led the 2016 edition, having been drawn early, but eight of the next nine players to lead or co-lead after round one since have teed it up in the afternoon.

Somewhat typically, both of my pre-event picks - Rahm and Sungjae Im - have been assigned AM-PM draws, and so too have all three of my Find Me a 100 Winner selections. Not a great start to the week!

Looking at the market, Tony Finau, who I backed ante-post at 50/1 last summer, has been surprisingly strong and there's been a steady stream of cash for the 2020 champ, Dustin Johnson, but fellow LIV rebel, Cam Smith, is particularly weak.

The reigning Open champ was trading at 23.022/1 this time last week. He's now out to 32.031/1.

Away from the Outright Market and the First Round Leader market, Matt Cooper has had a good look at the first round three-balls here and I've trawled through the plethora of side markets here.

Pre-Event Picks:
Jon Rahm @ 11.521/2
Sungjae Im @ 55.054/1
Tony Finau - ante-post @ 50/1

In-Play Picks:
Jordan Spieth @ 28.027/1
Collin Morikawa @ 40.039/1
Shane Lowry @ 48.047/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 pts Patrick Reed @ 100.099/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2 u Kurt Kitayama @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2 u Danny Willett @ 280.0279/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter