The Punter's In-Play Blog: Kim the man to beat in Korea

• Eagle at the last sees Echavarria still up by two at the ZOZO

• Yu chanced at a big price in Japan

• Kim and An tied at the top in their homeland

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11:45 - October 26, 2024

There's just one round left to play at both this week's co-sanctioned events - the ZOZO Championship in Japan on the PGA Tour and the Genesis Championship in Korea on the DP World Tour so here are the two 54-hole leaderboards with prices to back at 11:30.

ZOZO Championship
Nico Echavarria -17 2.447/5
Justin Thomas -15 2.727/4
Max Greyserman -14 6.05/1
Rickie Fowler -11 55.054/1
Kevin Yu -11 70.069/1
Nate Lashley -11 150.0149/1
-10 and 85.084/1 bar

Genesis Championship
Tom Kim -12 [3.4
Byeong Hun An -12 4.216/5
Antoine Rozner -11 9.417/2
Francesco Laporta -11 12.523/2
Ricardo Gouveia -11 32.031/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -10 17.533/2
Rikuya Hoshino -10 18.017/1
Alejandro Del Rey -10 25.024/1
Brandon Stone -9 32.031/1
Daniel Hillier -9 48.047/1
Ivan Cantero -9 90.089/1
-8 and 140.0139/1 bar

With a trio of players three clear of the remainder, the ZOZO Championship looks the easiest event to assess with a round to go so I'll start there...

My halfway pick, Justin Thomas, was matched at 1.824/5 when he hit the front on the back-nine today, but he didn't lead for long and after Thomas' spectacular eagle three at the 18^th hole yesterday, it was Nico Echavarria's turn today.

The 36-hole leader had birdied the 15^th to draw back alongside Thomas before he hit this brilliant approach at the last and after Thomas had missed his birdie putt from inside six feet, the Columbian's eagle three sees him leading by two again and he's the favourite heading into round four.

The BIG bird!
@Nicolas_Ech eagles the last to take a two-shot lead heading into the final round @ZOZOCHAMP. pic.twitter.com/vF9HnTHNJX

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 26, 2024

This is only the second time Echavarria has led through 54 holes on the PGA Tour but he made no mistake last time, winning the Puerto Rico Open in March last year by two strokes, having led by two with a round to go.

Prior to that, he'd led or been tied for the lead after three rounds three times on the Latinoamerica Tour and he went on to win twice so I don't think we can question his in-contention mettle.

Since the start of 2019, 17 of the 50 players to lead by two after three rounds on the PGA Tour have converted (34%), suggesting he's correctly priced at around 11/82.38 and he may not be under as much pressure as Thomas.

As highlighted yesterday, Thomas hasn't won on the PGA Tour for almost two-and-half years so, trailing by two, it's hard to argue that he's a great price at around 7/42.75, but it certainly isn't a two-man race.

A fortnight after he'd come from off the pace to finish second at the 3M Open, Max Greyserman traded at just 1.061/18 to win the Wyndham Championship, so he has very recent experience of being in-contention on the PGA Tour but whether he's value to overtake the two ahead of him at around 5/16.00 is debatable.

It's 55.054/1 the field after that and it's hard to see one of the front three not winning but I was happy to have a tiny bet on the recent Sanderson Farms Championship winner, Kevin Yu.

He'll be oozing confidence after his victory in Mississippi at the start of the month and having notched several 63s this season, he's not afraid to keep the pedal down if he starts nicely.

I'll be shouting on Thomas but if the front three do fail to shine, Yu could be the one to capitalise.

Over on the DP World Tour, the organisers couldn't have asked for a better scenario than having the two Korean stars - Tom Kim and Byeong Hun An - tied at the top with a round to go but with as many as eight players within two of the lead, it's far from a two-man tussle.

As he did before the off, Kim heads the market and rightly so.

He drifted back out to bigger than 8/19.00 in-running today after a bad break on the par five 15^th led to a double-bogey seven when his tee-shot bounced off a cart path and out of bounds, but he rebounded brilliantly, birdying 16 before making this fabulous eagle at the last.

Tom Kim finishes with an eagle to take the lead #GenesisChampionship pic.twitter.com/DOKKNQa1g4

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) October 26, 2024

Having sided with Kim yesterday at 11.521/2, I'm more than happy with the finish to his round and he's far more likely to close it out than his compatriot, An, who, as stated yesterday, has just one victory on the Korn Ferry Tour to his name in the last nine years.

In contrast, the 22-year-old, Kim, has won at least one tournament in each of the last five years and he has an excellent record when leading or co-leading through 54 holes.

He's led or co-led after 54-holes 11 times, and he's gone on to win on six occasions. And on the three occasions that he's led or been tied for the lead on the PGA Tour, he's won twice and lost in a playoff.

Kim is relishing playing in his homeland for the first time in more than two-and-half years and a third victory on home soil looks likely. He's the man to beat and he's a fair price at over 2/13.00 but the stats suggest that it's not an easy place to convert from the front.

Including the four editions of the Shinhan Donghae Open, played here between 2011 and 2014, the six editions of this event in it's previous incarnation, before it merged with the Korea Championship this year, and last year's once only staged Korea Championship, as many as seven of the 11 course winners have been trailing with a round to go.

The furthest anyone has trailed by is seven strokes (Sungjae Im in 2019) but I suspect the weather was poor that year and all 11 winners have been inside the top five places.

The four to convert from the front were clear - leading by three, four, six and eight strokes - so the stats appear to be against the front two.

Following today's seven-under-par 65 (the equal best of the day), Frenchman, Antoine Rozner, will accompany the Koreans in tomorrow's final three-ball and the three-time DP World Tour winner is the man most likely to win should the front two underperform but he was particularly poor in-contention at the Italian Open in June.

He was matched at as low as 1.538/15 when he led by a stroke with six to play but he finished poorly after that to finish fifth.

I haven't given up on pre-event pick, Brandon Stone, who trails by three in a tie for ninth and if there's to be a ludicrous stats-defying off the pace winner, Guido Migliozzi, who trails by five, is capable of something special.

He won the Open de France with a closing round of 62 from five adrift two years ago and for small stakes at a huge price, he's an interesting runner after today's 66 but all things considered, I can't see any reason to desert the prolific Kim.

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12:05 - October 25, 2024

The first-round leader, Taylor Moore, was matched at 3.613/5 to win the ZOZO Championship when he played his first eight holes of round two in four-under-par but he disembarked from the birdie bus after that and played his last ten holes in one-over-par and after back-to-back six-under 64s, it's Moore's college buddy, Nico Echavarria, that shows the way at halfway. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:45.

Nico Echavarria -12 6.411/2
Justin Thomas -10 4.57/2
Taylor Moore -10 9.417/2
Eric Cole -9 12.011/1
Seamus Power -9 12.011/1
C.T Pan -9 15.014/1
Max Greyserman -8 18.017/1
Rickie Fowler -8 20.019/1
-7 and 40.039/1 bar

After this spectacular approach to the par five 18^th to set up an eagle finish, Justin Thomas is the man to beat according to the market and it's hard to disagree.

220 yards 3 feet@JustinThomas34 closes with an impressive eagle to move 2 back of the lead @ZOZOCHAMP. pic.twitter.com/HR6UlEv6zN

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 25, 2024

It's nearly two-and-half years since Thomas won his last PGA Tour event, the US PGA Championship, but there are similarities between Thomas and last year's victor, Collin Morikawa, and he has a tremendous record when heading east from his homeland.

Morikawa had gone more than two years in-between wins when he took the title 12 months ago and like Thomas, his previous victory had been a major - the 2021 Open Championship.

Thomas' first victory on the PGA Tour was at the now defunct CIMB Classic in Malaysia (an event he defended the following year) and he won the CJ Cup in Korea in 2017 and 2019 so he's clearly comfortable playing in these co-sanctioned events away from the States.

With all the pre-event market leaders flopping over the first two days. This is far from a strong leaderboard, and I was happy to play Thomas modestly at 4.67/2.

Over on the DP World Tour, one group is yet to finish round two of the Genesis Championship in Korea but that doesn't affect the leaderboard, so here's the current state of play heading into the weekend, with price to back at 11:55.

Byeong Hun An -11 2.3611/8
Francesco Laporta -9 13.012/1
Casey Jarvis -9 16.015/1
Johannes Veerman -8 14.013/1
Rikuya Hoshino -8 15.529/2
Ivan Cantero -8 50.049/1
Ricardo Gouveia -8 65.064/1
Tom Kim -7 11.010/1
-7 and 70.069/1 bar

This is a slightly irritating leaderboard to look at.

Due largely to their positions on the Race to Dubai Standings, the likes of Casey Jarvis, Francesco Laporta, Johannes Veerman and even Ivan Cantero, were carefully considered before the off at very nice prices.

Whether positioned in the standings with a chance to advance to the playoffs or to keep their playing privileges, plenty of players have contended from their prospective precarious place in the standings but it's the two pre-event favourites that still dominate the market. And it's the pre-event favourite, Tom Kim, that I like at halfway.

The pre-tournament second favourite, Byeong Hun An leads by two and he's the 6/42.50 favourite with two loops of the Jack Nicklaus layout to play but that looks very short for someone with just one win on the Korn Ferry Tour to his name in the last nine years.

I watched An finish his second round and he holed some lovely putts to keep pushing ahead but his last two holes were a bit scruffy and he's one I'm happy to oppose at such a short price.

I've got a very small lay bet matched at long odds-on in the Top-5 market and I'm happy to lay more but my main focus is on Tom at 11.521/2.

Given Tom went off at 10.09/1 before the off, and that's he's trading at no bigger than 15/28.50 on the High Street, I'm very surprised to see him trading at such a big price at the halfway stage.

To a large degree, the presence of An at the top of the leaderboard explains the big price but I have little confidence in the leader, especially if the putter goes cold.

The flatstick is usually An's weakness so there's every chance he can't maintain his brilliance on the greens and with so much being played for by the other contenders, a freewheeling Kim at a double-figure price makes plenty of appeal.

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15:10 - October 24, 2024

Having started on the 10th in round one of the ZOZO Championship, pre-event 120.0119/1 shot, Taylor Moore, birdied three of his last four holes to post a seven-under-par 63 at Narashino Country Club and leading by one over Eric Cole, Max Greyserman and Nico Echavarria, he heads the market at 9.417/2.

Most of the pre-tournament market leaders disappointed to varying degrees, and Justin Thomas, who shot four-under-par, is the only one of the main protagonists inside the top 15 after round one but he wasn't strongly fancied before the off, trading at around 26.025/1.

Xander Schauffele was the warm favourite before the off but after a calamitous eight on the ninth hole, following some questionable decision making after an errant drive, he sits in a tie for 70^th and ten off the lead.

Relatable

Xander Schauffele laughs off a tough break after his tee shot wedges against a tree root. pic.twitter.com/4REO4G8Q2h

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 24, 2024

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, what little evidence that we have suggests that you can't come from too far back at this venue but I'm happy to sit on my hands for now.

The fact that it's 8/19.00 the field tells you all you need to know about how competitive the event is and I'm happy to wait and see what tomorrow brings.

The market leaders fared much better in round one of this week's DP World Tour event - the Korea Championship - where the high-profile Korean pair, Byeong Hun An and Tom Kim, both started nicely.

An shot a five-under-par 67 to sit tied second and Kim shot 68 after a dodgy start to his round.

As highlighted in the preview, this is the last counting event of the season so anyone outside the top 70 won't qualify for the first playoff event - the Abu Dhabi Championship - and only those inside the top-114 on the standings will keep their cards.

I concentrated hard on those just outside the top 70 and the top 114 but I wish I hadn't been quite so picky given Ivan Cantero, who was trading at between 500.0499/1 and 600.0599/1 before the off, leads after round one.

The Spaniard began the event sitting at 107 in the standings but whether he can keep rolling over the next three days to win his highly unlikely and he's still a 42.041/1 chance.

I was tempted to leave this one alone for now too but the up-and-coming Japanese player, Keita Nakajima, looks a fair price at 28.027/1.

He won four times on the Japan Tour between September 2021 and November last year and he was an impressive winner of the Indian Open on the DP World Tour at the end of March.

He's got a nice early tee-time tomorrow and he trails by only three after round one.

The forecast predicted a bit of draw bias at the start of the week, with the wind forecasted to be stronger in the morning tomorrow than in the afternoon but that's all changed now and we look set for a benign day throughout.

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ZOZO Championship Pre-Event Picks:
Hideki Matsuyama @ 11.521/2
Beau Hossler @ 48.047/1

In-Play Picks:
Justin Thomas @ 4.67/2
Kevin Yu @ 70.069/1

Korea Championship Open Pre-Event Pick:
Brandon Stone @ 46.045/1

In-Play Picks:
Keita Nakajima @ 28.027/1
Tom Kim @ 11.521/2

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