Valspar Championship: Bank on Bridgeman at 23/1

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What happened last week? Young capitalises on Aberg collapse.

Ludvig Aberg led the Players Championship by three strokes with 18 to play on Sunday and he still led by three when he turned for home, but disaster struck on the par five 11^th when he found water with his second shot.

A bogey six followed the penalty drop and rather than bounce back at the 12^th, he found water again, this time off the tee.

Another six went on the card, and having been matched at as low as 1.374/11, the likable Swede was out of the reckoning.

Matt Fitzpatrick led by a stroke with just two holes to play and he was matched at a low of just 1.3130/100, but his player partner, Cameron Young, stepped up to the plate with a birdie two at the iconic 17^th and the pair walked to the 72^nd tee tied at the top on 13-under-par.

Young piled the pressure on with a brilliant tee-shot and when Fitzpatrick missed the fairway, the New Yorker went odds-on for the first time.

To his credit, Fitzpatrick hit a great shot out from the trees and chipped up to within nine feet to save his par but after Young had missed his birdie putt to take the title from 15 feet the Englishman missed his par save.

Young was a 40.039/1 chance before the off and although he had a poor bank of course form, having won the Wyndham Championship last year and having finished third in the Arnold Palmer the week before, he looked a prime candidate.

Following Young's success on Sunday, we've now seen a remarkable seven different players win both the Players and the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield.

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Valspar Championship Tournament History

Having first been staged in the autumn of 2000, as an opposite field event, the Valspar Championship switched to March in 2005 to become part of the Florida Swing.

The 2020 edition was lost to the pandemic, and the 2021 edition was staged in May after the PGA Tour's resumption, but this is the fifth year running that the event is back in its now traditional March slot as the final event on the Florida Swing.

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Venue

Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida.

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Course Details

Par 71, 7,352 yards
Stroke average in 2025 - 71.87

Designed by Larry Packard, Copperhead was opened in 1974. Prior to the establishment of this event the course was restored in 1999, and it underwent a $4.5m restoration after the 2015 renewal.

All the fairways were re-grassed with Celebration Bermuda and the greens re-grassed with Tif Bermuda.

It's a tough undulating, tree-lined track with many dog-legged fairways and an unusual layout, with four par fives and five par threes.

The primary rough has exceeded three inches in each of the last five renewals and water is in play on nine holes. The smaller than average greens are usually set to run at around 12.5 on the Stimpmeter.

The four par fives (holes one, five, 11 and 14) are consistently the three easiest holes on the course and they were the only ones on the course to average below par 12 months ago. The last three holes are tough and known as the Snake Pit...

With water right and trees left, there's no bailout off the tee whatsoever at the par four 16^th and it's been the hardest hole on the course in six of the last seven renewals.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting on Thursday at 11:30.

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Last 10 Winners with Exchange Prices

2025 - Viktor Hovland -11 75.074/1
2024 - Peter Malnati -12 650.0649/1
2023 - Tyler Moore -10 75.074/1
2022 - Sam Burns -17 27.026/1 (playoff)
2021 - Sam Burns -17 80.079/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Paul Casey -8 34.033/1
2018 - Paul Casey -10 28.027/1
2017 - Adam Hadwin -14 90.089/1
2016 - Charl Schwartzel 48.047/1 (playoff)
2015 - Jordan Spieth 16.015/1 (playoff)

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What Will it Take to Win the Valspar?

The driving stats don't appear to be particularly important here.

Last year's winner, Viktor Hovland, ranked 29^th for Driving Distance and 37^th for Driving Accuracy and the last nine winners have averaged only 27.97 for SG: Off the Tee.

Hovland ranked eighth for Greens In Regulation, the first two home in 2024, Peter Malnati and Cameron Young, ranking tied sixth and 16 of the 24 course winners to date have ranked 11th or better for GIR.

The last nine winners have had an average ranking of 7.45 for Strokes Gained: Approach and 5.78 for Strokes Gained: Tee to Greeen.

Finding greens with regularity is key but a great week with the putter is usually essential.

Hovland ranked second for Strokes Gained: Putting and ninth for Putting Average and the 2023 winner, Taylor Moore, who ranked 26^th, and the 2009 winner, Retief Goosen, who ranked a remarkably 57^th, are the only two course winners to have ranked outside the top 20 for PA.

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Is There an Angle In?

This isn't your typical Floridan test so looking at results at other events in the state won't necessarily help but there are at least four courses that appear to correlate nicely so we're not short of angles in!

John Huston, K.J Choi, Vijay Singh and Jim Furyk have all won both this event and the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Lots of players have been placed at both events and some have been placed in one and won the other. The 2021 Sony winner, Kevin Na, was second here in 2014 and the multiple Sony winner, Ernie Els, traded at odds-on to win this one in 2012.

As many as four men have also won this event and the John Deere Classic - Jordan Spieth, John Senden, Sean O'Hair and Vijay Singh, and it should really be five. The 2016 John Deere Classic winner, Ryan Moore, threw this one away 11 years ago.

The 2021 John Deere winner, Lucas Glover, was fourth here in 2007, 11^th in 2024, and he sat third at halfway five years ago. And the 2024 runner-up, Cam Young, led the JDC by two at halfway in 2023.

The 2024 runner-up, Adam Schenk, who was matched at a low of 2.01/1, has JDC form figures reading MC-6-4-W-4 and the 2017 John Deere winner, Bryson DeChambeau, only finished 27th here on debut eight years ago and he withdrew in 2019 on his only other appearance but even he has form at both courses given he won the 2014 All-American Athlete Conference Championship at Copperhead, and I see that Brett Quigley, who never got to win on the PGA Tour, finished second in both events, so that's definitely a tournament to consider.

Schenk subsequently lost a playoff in the Charles Schwab in 2024, an event won by Sam Burns the year before, and they're two of a number of players to have played well both here and at Colonial Country Club and last but not necessarily least, form at TPC River Highlands, home of the Travelers Championship, also crosses over regularly.

Young shot 59 at TPC River Highlands, just a few months after finishing second here and Jordan Spieth links all five venues nicely. Third place is his best finish at the Sony Open so far, but he's won here, at Colonial, at TPC River Highlands and twice at Deere Run.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Course form stands up ridiculously well here and in its relatively short history, we've now seen four men win the event twice and a number of winners have also finished runner-up. The 2015 winner, Spieth, traded at a low of 2.1211/10 in 2023 before eventually finishing third and last year's winner, Hovland, had finished third on debut in 2021.

Burns, Casey, Choi and Goosen have claimed the prize on multiple occasions and Choi is one of five winners to have also finished second. He finished runner-up behind Jim Furyk in 2010 and Furyk himself subsequently finished second in 2012. Sean O'Hair, John Senden (twice) and VJ Singh have all also won the event and finished second and Patrick Reed, who was second to Casey in 2018, has finished runner-up twice.

Overseas players have a strong record and an American has won only half of the first 22 editions of the event.

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Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2025 - Viktor Hovland tied for the lead 4.84/1
2024 - Peter Malnati tied second - trailing by four 15.014/1
2023 - Tyler Moore tied fourth - trailing by two 13.012/1
2022 - Sam Burns tied third - trailing by three 4.94/1
2021 - Sam Burns - tied for the lead 3.814/5
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Paul Casey - led by a stroke 3.55/2
2018 - Paul Casey T11th - trailing by five 120.0119/1
2017 - Adam Hadwin - led by four strokes 1.51/2
2016 - Charl Schwartzel - solo eighth - trailing by five 32.031/1
2015 - Jordan Spieth - solo second - trailing by a stroke 3.185/40 

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In-Play Tactics

Having trailed by six strokes after round one nine years ago, Adam Hadwin hit the front at halfway and he extended his lead to four with a round to go, Casey was in front before round four in 2019, Burns was tied with Keegan Bradley with a round to go in 2021, and Hovland was tied with recent PGA Tour winners, Jacob Bridgeman and Nico Echavaria, and one ahead of another recent winner, Ricky Castillo, but straightforward front-running winners aren't commonplace here.

Jim Furyk was three clear through 54 holes before winning in 2010 but he's the only other winner to hold a clear lead going into the final round and 12 of the last 18 winners have come from behind.

Having sat second at halfway, trailing Corey Conners by two, Casey began the final day trading at 120.0119/1 in 2018, after a poor back-nine on Saturday had seen him drop outside the top ten. Casey recorded the win having made just 21 putts in round four, but he was far from the first winner to come from off the pace...

The 2016 winner, Charl Schwartzel, who was matched in-running at a high of 90.089/1, trailed by four after rounds one and two and he was a 32.031/1 chance on Sunday morning, as he trailed by five. The 2015 winner, Spieth, was matched at a high of 30.029/1 after a slow start in 2015 and the runner-up, Patrick Reed, hit a high of 150.0149/1 after he struggled at the beginning of the week. Spieth sat tied for 38th and five off the lead after round one and Reed trailed by seven in a tie for 80th but as many others have done before them, they were able to make up the lost ground.

Having hit a high of 290.0289/1, John Senden was still tied for 35th and fully eight shots back at halfway 11 years ago, Mark Calcavecchia, the 2007 winner, was ten back after round one and still six back at halfway and although he was tied for the lead after round three, Kevin Streelman was eight behind after day one and still seven behind at halfway 12 years ago.

Luke Donald won a four-man playoff here in 2012 and he and his playoff protagonists had all started slowly. They were five, six, six and eight strokes back after round one and still three, three, four and seven back at halfway, so don't give up hope if your picks don't really spark on Thursday or Friday. This is a course where ground can be made up over the weekend.

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Bank on Bridgeman

Having been matched at 29.028/1, when the market first opened, the bang in-form 26-year-old Jacob Bridgeman has been well supported and I'm not in the least bit surprised.

After winning his first PGA Tour event at Riviera last month, a week after finishing eighth at Pebble Beach, Bridgeman has finished 18^th in the Arnold Palmer and tied fifth last week at the Players so he arrives in tip-top form.

Bridgeman ranked first for both Putting Average and Strokes Gained: Putting at both Riviera and Sawgrass and, having finished fifth in the John Deere Classic last year and fourth in the Sony Open in January, he has form at a couple of correlating courses. We shouldn't be surprised by that given he was third here 12 months ago.

He's a rock solid candidate and a fair price.

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