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McIlroy in great form to complete career grand slam
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Koepka and Straka also fancied at juicy prices
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Tournament History
The US Masters is the first of the years four major championships and it's the only one of the four that's played at the same venue every year - the iconic and stunning Augusta National.
Augusta National was founded at the start of the Great Depression and when the first edition of what was originally called the Augusta National Invitation Tournament was staged 91 years ago, the club had just 76 paid up members.
That was someway short of the planned 1,800 and the inaugural winner, Horton Smith, along with all the top finishers, had to wait for 17 members to club together to raise the purse before he received his winnings.
Venue
Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia
Course Details
Par 72, 7,555 yards
Scoring average in 2024 - 73.9
Originally the brainchild of Bobby Jones, Augusta National was founded by him and Clifford Roberts - a wealthy New York investment banker.
Designed by Jones and Alister Mackenzie, who died before the course was finished, Augusta National was built on the site of an old nursery and all the holes are named after a tree or shrub.
Augusta officially opened in January 1933, and it's been evolving ever since and to such an extent recently that the original designers would barely recognize the place.
The Bermuda greens were changed to bent grass and the fairways were tightened at the end of the last century before a major overhaul was orchestrated by Tom Fazio in 2002, when more than half the holes were lengthened and tightened.
Prior to the off in 2023, both the 11th and 15th holes were lengthened slightly, another 35 yards were added before the off in 2023, courtesy of an extension to the par five 13th, and ten yards were added to the par five second before the off last year.
The only change to the course this year was enforced by Mother Nature with several trees having been lost to storm damage around the 16th hole.
Augusta is a long course, and it plays even longer than its already demanding yardage because the fairways are all cut in the same direction - towards the tee-boxes - so balls tend to land and stop fairly quickly.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
The Par Three Competition is live on Sky Sports from 19:00 UK time on Wednesday and live coverage of the tournament itself starts at 14:00 on Thursday UK time, with several different options behind the Red Button.
Last 12 Winners with Pre-event Prices
2022 - Scottie Scheffler -10 6.05/1
2023 - Jon Rahm -12 11.521/2
2022 - Scottie Scheffler -10 19.018/1
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama -10 70.069/1
2020- Dustin Johnson -20 9.89/1
2019 - Tiger Woods -13 22.021/1
2018 - Patrick Reed -15 70.069/1
2017 - Sergio Garcia -9 50.049/1 (playoff)
2016 - Danny Willett -5 70.069/1
2015 - Jordan Spieth -18 13.012/1
2014 - Bubba Watson -8 28.027/1
2013 - Adam Scott -9 28.027/1 (playoff)
2012 - Bubba Watson -10 55.054/1 (playoff)
What Will it Take to Win the US Masters?
To provide an at-a-glance picture of what's required at Augusta, here are the average ratings for the last 15 winners in all the traditional key stats.
Driving Accuracy - 24.97
Driving Distance - 20.73
G.I.R - 5.8
Scrambling - 9.87
Putting Average - 11.53
Although Augusta is tree-lined, Driving Accuracy is the least important traditional stat to consider.
Although you can't just spray it everywhere off the tee, the trees here are well-established and the branches are high, so errant drives aren't always punished.
Length off the tee is advantageous and historically much more important than accuracy, but it hasn't been an absolute imperative of late.
The 2023 winner, Jon Rahm, only ranked 24th for Driving Distance and Hideki Matsuyama, Tiger Woods, Danny Willett, Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel and Zach Johnson have all won here in the last 18 years with DD rankings of 47th 44th, 32nd, 52nd, 40th and 57th respectively but most victors give it a good whack.
Dustin Johnson, in November 2020, and the two winners before Tiger Woods in 2019, all ranked sixth for DD, seven of the last 17 winners have ranked inside the top-six for DD and Bubba Watson hit it further than anyone off the tee when he won his second Green Jacket 11 years ago.
The last four winners have ranked seventh, third, fifth and seventh for Greens In Regulation and the two winners before them both ranked number one for GIR.
As many as 15 of the last 18 winners have ranked seventh or better so that's obviously a key stat and so too is Scrambling.
The 2019 winner, Woods, only ranked 47th for Scrambling but the last 15 winners have still averaged only 9.87 so the ability to get up-and-down repeatedly is vital.
Patrick Reed topped the Putting Average stats in 2018 and Scheffler ranked as high as seventh last year but Matsuyama only ranked 26th in 2021 and amongst the list of winners above are a number of players that have had their fair share of woes on the greens - including Matsuyama.
The fast, sloppy, often treacherous, glass-like surfaces are hard for everyone and it almost levels the field out a bit.
To emphasize that further, the first and second in 2021, Matsuyama and Will Zalatoris, ranked 175th and 122nd for Strokes Gained: Putting on the PGA Tour that season and the two playoff protagonists in 2017, Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose, ended the 2017 season ranking 112th and 168th for SGP so although I wouldn't go out of my way to find a poor putter, it's a bit of myth that only the best putters win here.
Strokes Gained stats have only been produced for the last four editions of the US Masters but they back up the traditional stats nicely.
The last four winners have ranked either first or second for SG: Tee to Green, and the four have ranked first, sixth, sixth and fourth for SG: Approach.
Rahm ranked first for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee two years ago and Scheffler ranked second last year but he only ranked ninth when winning for the first time in 2022 and the 2021 winner, Matsuyama, ranked 17th.
The four winners have ranked only 22nd, 22nd, 13th and 23rd for SG: Putting but they ranked first, seventh, second and fourth for SG: Around the Green.
Those stats show that the secrets to success here are to find plenty of greens and to get up-and-down successfully when one is missed but what's often the most important factor is how you play the long holes...
Here are the total scores to par for the last 15 winners on the par threes, fours and fives.
Par threes -14
Par fours -10
Par fives -136
The fact that Danny Willett won here in 2016 having played the long holes in just level par is astounding and it must be viewed as an anomaly. Sergio only played them in seven-under-par in 2017 and even that was an unusually low score.
Patrick Reed smashed them up seven years ago -playing them in 13 under-par - despite failing to pick up a shot on any of the four on Sunday, and the last five winners have played them in -11, -11, -8, -10 and -9.
Playing the par fives well is extremely important and the last three winners have all ranked second for Par 5 Scoring.
Phil Mickelson played the long holes in 13-under-par in 2006 and yet his winning total was just seven-under and even when relatively short hitter, Zach Johnson, won with an over par winning total 18 years ago, he still played the long holes in 11 under-par.
The short par four third was the fourth easiest hole last year, averaging 3.93, and the par five 15th averaged over par at 5.01 but the other three longs holes - two, eight and 16 - were the three easiest on the course 12 months ago and they're the holes to pick up shots.
Angles In & Augusta Trends
Patrick Reed's course form coming into the championship, reading MC-22-49-MC, was pretty poor in 2018, and he was the first winner since Tiger Woods in 1997 to have missed the cut the previous year.
They're the only two winners not to have played rounds three and four in the year before they won since Fuzzy Zoeller won on debut in 1979 so not playing over the weekend on your previous visit is a significant negative.
Another no-no used to be backing anyone yet to break 70 around Augusta. Up until 2015, 23 of the previous 24 winners had all previously shot a round in the 60s but following Reed's win, and the victories of Jordan Spieth in 2015 and Danny Willett in 2016, three of the last ten winners had failed to break 70 before they won. And they hadn't played in the tournament as often as most winners either...
Both Spieth and Willett had only played Augusta once before they won and Scheffler, who had shot just one round in the 60s, was appearing for only the third time when he won it for the first time three years ago. And that really went against the grain given previous course form is usually vital.
Other than the first two winners of the event, Fuzzy Zoeller (in 1979) is still the only debutant to win the US Masters, and most winners have been around Augusta National enough times to get to know its unique nuisances.
On average, first time winners have played the event six times and with previous course form figures reading 27-4-9-7-5-27, that was the case with Rahm two years ago.
Although plenty of experience is a big plus and the average age of the winners is just under 32, age had been a bit of a barrier until 2019. Prior to Tiger's win at the age of 43, Mark O'Meara, who took the title at the age of 41 back in 1998, had been the last man to win in his 40s.
Strong current form crucial of late
Course form stands up well here and past winners have a fine record.
Scheffler was the only past champ in the top 10 last year but that's unusual and three of the five players to finish inside the top six behind Rahm a year earlier were former winners.
As many as 18 different players having won the title more than once, but strong current form has been key of late too.
Matsuyama managed to win four years ago despite a relatively poor start to the year. He'd finished 30th in the Valero Texas Open in his penultimate start and in ten previous starts in 2021, 15th at the WGC Workday Championship was his best finish but since Phil Mickelson won his third title 15 years ago, having produced just one top-ten from seven previous starts that year (eighth at the AT&T Pebble Beach), every winner bar Matsuyama has telegraphed their wellbeing.
Scheffler was in incredible form 12 months ago, with form figures reading 1-1-2 and he followed his second victory here with a win at The Heritage seven days later.
Incredibly, during March and April, Stephan Jaeger, who beat him by one at the Houston Open, was the only golfer to finish in front of Scheffler in five starts!
He arrived at Augusta with current for figures reading 1-7-1-55-1 before he won it for the first time in 2022 and although Rahm hadn't been at his best in his three events prior to the Masters, he had begun 2023 in fine style, winning three of his first five starts, having won two of his last three events in 2022.
As an indication of how well you usually need to be playing in the lead up to the year's first major, the top five last year had all won on either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour or both in the previous six months.
Riviera form is a huge plus
The Genesis Invitational was moved to Torrey Pines this year following the devasting wildfires in Pacific Palisades but it's usual venue - Riviera Country Club - has been a haven for Masters winners over the years and form there is a big plus.
When he won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in 2024, Matsuyama became the fifth player in 12 years to win both the Genesis Invitational and the US Masters and 14 different US Masters winners have won 24 of the 61 renewals of the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.
Scheffler was winning here for the second time 12 months ago, Dustin Johnson had previously won the US Open, and Tiger Woods won the US Masters for a fifth time in 2019 but nine of the last 15 US Masters winners were winning their first major championship and that's a general trend across all the majors.
As many as 23 of the last 37 (62%) major championships have gone to a first-time major winner so don't be surprised if we get another but do expect them to feature highly in the Official World Rankings because 50 of the last 51 majors have been won by someone inside the world's top-50. The odd man out is Phil Mickelson who defied all sorts of logic at the 2021 US PGA Championship when he won at the age of 51 - ranking 115th in the world.
Last 10 Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four
2024 - Scottie Scheffler - led by one 1.981/1
2023 - Jon Rahm - solo second, trailed by two 2.8815/8
2022 - Scottie Scheffler - led by three 1.584/7
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama - led by four 1.9420/21
2020 - Dustin Johnson - led by four 1.422/5
2019 - Tiger Woods - tied second, trailed by two 4.94/1
2018 - Patrick Reed - led by three strokes 2.265/4
2017 - Sergio Garcia - tied for the lead with Justin Rose 6.05/1
2016 - Danny Willett - tied for fifth, trailing by three 22.021/1
2015 - Jordan Spieth - led by four 1.51/2
Should we swerve last year's contenders?
Although course form stands up well and multiple winners are fairly common, Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods are the only players to win the US Masters back-to-back.
That's not a great omen for the favourite, Scheffler, but nobody had defended the Players Championship until last year, so he's used to defying the stats.
Something I've touched on in previous years, and it rings true most years, is the poor performances often put up by players that contended the year before.
A number of 2019 contenders were in-the-mix in 2020 and the winner, Dustin Johnson, had finished tied for second behind Tiger in the previous renewal but because of the pandemic, the 2020 edition was played in November and there was 19 months between the two renewals. That may have been a reason why we saw a couple of 2019 contenders back in the mix because it's been business as usual over the last four years.
Ordinarily, the contenders at the previous renewal tend to struggle and I suspect it's something to do with mindset. Having held a chance to win the year before, expectations are no doubt higher the following year and that may explain why so many fail to figure.
As a demonstration, here's the top 10s from 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, with their finishing positions the following year in brackets.
2017
1 Sergio Garcia (MC)
2 Justin Rose (12th)
3 Charl Schwartzel (MC)
T4 Matt Kuchar (28th)
T4 Thomas Pieters DNP
6 Paul Casey (15th)
T7 Rory McIlroy (5th)
T7 Kevin Chappell DNP
T9 Ryan Moore DNP
T9 Adam Scott (32nd)
2018
1 Patrick Reed (T36)
2 Rickie Fowler (T9)
3 Jordan Spieth (T21)
4 Jon Rahm (T9)
5 Rory McIlroy (T21)
5 Cameron Smith (T51)
5 Henrik Stenson (T36)
5 Bubba Watson (T12)
9 Marc Leishman (T49)
10 Tony Finau (T5)
10 Dustin Johnson (T2)
2020
1 Dustin Johnson (MC)
2 Sungjae Im (MC)
2 Cameron Smith (10)
4 Justin Thomas (21)
5 Rory McIlroy (MC)
5 Dylan Frittelli (MC)
7 Jon Rahm (5)
7 Brooks Koepka (MC)
7 CT Pan (MC)
10 Corey Conners (8)
10 Webb Simpson (12)
10 Patrick Reed (8)
2021
1 Hideki Matsuyama (14)
2 Will Zalatoris (6)
3 Xander Schauffele (MC)
3 Jordan Spieth (MC)
5 Jon Rahm (27)
5 Marc Leishman (30)
7 Justin Rose (MC)
8 Corey Conners (6)
8 Patrick Reed (35)
10 Cam Smith (3)
10 Tony Finau (35)
2022
1 Scottie Scheffler (10)
2 Rory McIlroy (MC)
3 Shane Lowry (16)
3 Cameron Smith (34)
5 Collin Morikawa (10)
6 Corey Conners (MC)
6 Will Zalatoris (DNP)
8 Sungjae Im (16)
8 Justin Thomas (MC)
10 Cameron Champ MC)
10 Charl Schwartzel (MC)
2023
1 Jon Rahm (T45)
2 Phil Mickelson (T43)
2 Brooks Koepka (T45)
4 Patrick Reed (T12)
4 Russell Henley (T38)
4 Jordan Spieth (MC)
7 Cameron Young (T9)
7 Viktor Hovland (MC)
9 Sahith Theegala (T45)
10 Scottie Scheffler (1)
10 Collin Morikawa (T3)
10 Xander Schauffele (8)
10 Matthew Fitzpatrick (T22)
Although course form is huge, coming into the event under the radar or with low expectations appears to be a plus.
In-Play Tactics
Up with the pace is the place to be at Augusta.
Scheffler sat solo second after round one 12 months ago, he was tied for the lead after round two, and he led by a stroke with 18 to play.
In 2023, despite double bogeying the opening hole, and being on the wrong side of the draw, Rahm was tied for the lead after round one and he sat second after rounds two and three, before winning by four. And a year earlier, Scheffler had sat third, trailing by two, after the opening round, before making all the running after a five-under-par 67 in round two.
Tiger sat tied for 11th and four off the lead after the opening round in 2019 but that's the only time any winner has sat outside the top-ten after round one since he sat tied for 33rd and seven off the lead 20 years ago!
Augusta National is NOT a catch-up course, and a fast start is imperative.
As many as six of the last eight US Masters winners have been leading with a round to go and seven of the last 11 have led after both rounds two and three.
Tiger and Phil Mickelson repeatedly buck the trends at Augusta and they're the only two men to win the event having finished day one outside of the top-10 since Mark O'Meara won from tied 25th and five off the pace 27 years ago.
Pace yourself and be ready for Friday night
It's very tempting to avidly watch the first day's play in its entirety but be careful not to be fatigued too soon if you're planning to trade the event.
Only one of the last 13 winners has been outside the top-six and more than three strokes back at halfway so late on Friday night is very often the best time to make a move.
The market tends to sort itself out overnight and the leading pack will generally shorten up so trading just before the end of round two, or straight after, on Friday night is a good time to strike in-running bets.
Scheffler bidding to emulate Jack
Only three men have successfully defended the US Masters title - Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods - so history is against the 5/16.00 favourite, Scottie Scheffler, who's won two of the last three editions.
Woods won his second and third titles back-to-back in 2001 and 2002, after winning his first in 1997, and Faldo won his second title 12 months after his first, but Jack won his second and third in 1965 and '66, a year after he'd finished runner-up to Arnold Palmer in 1964 ,12 months after he'd won it for the first time in '63.
Having won the title in 2022 and 2024, if Scheffler wins it this year, he'll mirror Nicklaus and that looks far more likely than it did a fortnight ago.
Following a delayed start to the year, after he'd cut his hand on Christmas Day, Scheffler hasn't hit the heights of 2024 and prior to his second-place finish in the Houston Open last week, he had 2025 form figures reading 9-25-3-11-20.
His stats have largely been ordinary and his putting numbers poor, but he ranked sixth for Strokes Gained: Putting and SG: Tee-to-Green in Houston having ranked 45th and 17th for those two metrics when finishing tied 20th in the Players Championship.
Scheffler was trading at more than 6/17.00 before his second in Houston so the market has reacted positively to the performance.
Rory perfectly primed
Hideki Matsuyama, who was a 70.069/1 chance, is the only winner in the last six years that wasn't well fancied so it's a major that tends to go to one of the market leaders but doubts surround many of the main contenders this year.
Collin Morikawa is in fine form but he's very flaky in-contention nowadays, Ludvig Aberg hasn't impressed in three starts since winning the Genesis at Torrey Pines, missing the cut in the Players and again at the Texas Open, after finishing 22nd in the Arnold Palmer, and Bryson DeChambeau hasn't won since he edged out Rory in the US Open last June.
Like Ben Hogan (1951-53), Arnold Palmer (1958-60), Jack Nicklaus (1963-65), Phil Mickelson (2004-06), Bubba Watson (2012-14) and last year's winner, Scheffler, Jon Rahm is bidding to win his second Green Jacket two years after his first but he hasn't won in seven months on the LIV Golf circuit and Xander Schauffele is still finding his feet after missing two months with a rib injury.
Without question, the most in-form player towards the top of the market is Rory McIlroy and it does feel like the stars could be aligning and that the 35-year-old may finally get to don a Green Jacket and complete the career Grand Slam.
There was a lot to like about his victories at Pebble Beach in February and at the Players last month and he'll drive down Magnolia Lane knowing he's in better shape than ever.
This is the first time in his career that he's pitched up at Augusta with two wins in the year already chalked up and I was happy to back him at more than 7/18.00.
It may well transpire that he never gets to win here but if he is going to get it done, this looks like it could be the year.
Back Rory McIlroy
Course form points to Koepka and stats suggest Straka
Although the LIV Golf Miami event is still ongoing, and the result there will influence the market here, I was happy to chance Brooks Koepka at 44.043/1 before knowing the result at Doral.
The 34-year-old five-time major champion finished tied second behind Tiger in 2019, having been tied for the lead through the first two rounds, and he led by two through rounds two and three two years ago when he was matched at as low as 1.758/11 in-running so he boasts some great course form and although the last of his five victories on the LIV Golf circuit was back in August, his scrambling and putting numbers were very good when he finished second in Singapore last time out.
Back Brooks Koepka
I was hoping that Sepp Straka would reach a triple-figure price so I could include him in the Find Me a 100 Winner column but it's not going to happen and nor should it.
Ranking seventh for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green on the PGA Tour this season, second for Greens In Regulation, and first for Par 5 Performance, the 31-year-old Austrian is a brilliant fit statistically and like seven of the previous ten US Masters winners, he's already bagged a win this season - hacking up at The American Express to claim his third PGA Tour title.
Having been born in Vienna, Straka and his family moved to Georgia when he was 14 and he and his twin, Sam, both went to the University of Georgia, so he'll feel at home this week.
His course form, reading 30-46-16, is nothing to write home about and that's a bit of a negative but his career is on an upward trajectory and he's far too big at 90.089/1 given he's now ranked the 13th best player on the planet.
Back Sepp Straka