Bermuda Championship: The Punter's Preview

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Bermuda Championship tournament history

This is the eighth edition of the Bermuda Championship - an event that began life as an opposite field event when the WGC HSBC Champions in China was still on the schedule.

The Bermuda Championship is the fourth of eight events on the FedEx Cup Fall Series so there's plenty at stake for those bobbing around the 100 mark on the standings, looking to keep their playing privileges for next season.

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Venue

Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton, Bermuda

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Course details

Par 71, 6828 yards

Port Royal is a short, wind exposed Robert Trent Jones Sr. designed course, with a number of holes perched right on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean.

Port Royal's signature hole, the 235-yard par three 16^th, with nothing but the Atlantic Ocean between the tee and the pin, is widely regarded as one of the greatest par threes in golf but it's a tough one. It was the second hardest on the course in 2022 and again last year, but it's been the toughest on the track for four of the last six renewals and it comes at the end of a tough stretch on the back nine.

Holes 12 through 16 ranked as the seventh, third, eighth, first and second hardest holes for the week 12 months ago.

The Bermuda/Zoysia mixed rough is only 2 ½ inches high but it's still tricky to navigate from and the average sized Bermuda greens only run at around 10 ½ on the stimpmeter because of the almost ever-present wind.

In addition to the first seven editions of this event, Port Royal was also the host course for the now defunct Grand Slam of Golf for six years from 2009. The tournament, which was eventually ditched in 2014, was staged to showcase the four major winners over two rounds. Here are the six winners at Port Royal.

2009 - Lucas Glover - 11
2010 - Ernie Els -5
2011 - Keegan Bradley -4
2012 - Padraig Harrington -9
2013 - Adam Scott -8
2014 - Martin Kaymer -6

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Weather forecast

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TV coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 18:00 on Thursday.

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First seven winners with pre-event Betfair Exchange prices

2019 - Brendon Todd -24 150.0149/1
2020 - Brian Gay -15 330.0329/1 (playoff)
2021 - Lucas Herbert -15 65.064/1
2022 - Seamus Power -19 27.026/1
2023 - Camilo Villegas -24 160.0159/1
2024 - Rafael Campos -19 600.0599/1
2025 - Adam Schenk -12 140.0139/1

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A statistical look at the Bermuda Championship?

The driving stats are limited and according to Rob Bolton in 2022, who writes for the PGA Tour website, only two holes in opposite directions are used to measure distance off the tee here - the par five second and the par four 12^th.

Looking back, both the first two winners ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy and when Brendon Todd won the inaugural edition, six of the top ten ranked inside the top ten for Driving Accuracy.

The 2020 winner, Brian Gay, was one of four players inside the top ten to rank inside the top ten for DA but that stat hasn't been so key over the last five years.

The 2021 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked as high as seventh for Driving Distance but neither of the two driving metrics are worth worrying about.

Last year's shock winner, Adam Schenk, ranked 20^th for Driving Distance and 23^rd for Driving Accuracy.

Starting in 2019, the seven winners to date have ranked 10^th, 15^th, 58^th, ninth, first, 51^st and 27^th for Greens in Regulation, fourth, 16^th 14^th, 46^th, 16^th, first and third for Scrambling, and third, sixth, 10^th, third, 11^th, seventh and 22^nd for Putting Average.

The 2022 winner, Seamus Power, is something of an anomaly as he only ranked 46^th for Scrambling but Detry, in second, ranked first so a great short game and a hot putter have been the keys to success here so far.

The first seven home last year ranked third, second, first, fourth, sixth, 43^rd and 55^th for Scrambling so that's probably the most important stat to concentrate on.

The inaugural winner and the 2023 winner both got to 24-under-par but when the wind blows hard, this is a tough place to play.

The wind gusted up to 40 mph during round one in 2021 and Matt Fitzpatrick described the conditions as "Brutal. The hardest wind I've ever played in." And Scotland's Russell Knox concurred, saying, "I've never experienced wind that strong."

Lucas Herbert got it to -15 that year but last year's champ, Schenk reached on 12-under-par.

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Correlating courses worth considering

There are a number of events staged at courses similar to Port Royal.

The Sony Open, the RBC Heritage and the RSM Classic are all held on coastal, wind-affected courses and the host venues, Waialae Country Club, Harbour Town Golf Links and Sea Island Resort are all Bermuda.

The 2020 winner, Brian Gay certainly boosted the links between Port Royal and those three tracks. He has three top-tens at Waialae (home of the Sony), he won the RBC at Harbour Town by a record ten strokes in 2009, and he has a fourth and a third in the RSM Classic at Sea Island.

The 2023 winner, Camilo Vilegas, has a poor record in the Sony but he was beaten in a playoff at the RSM Classic, and he has three top 10s at Harbour Town.

With top three finishes in both the Puerto Rico Open and the Corales Puntacana Championship, the 2024 winner, Rafael Campos, had performed well in a couple of other events staged at windy, exposed, coastal layouts away from the United States so they're tournaments to consider closely too but it's another overseas tournament, the World Wide Technology Championship, that's arguably the best guide given the first two winners of this event have also won at the WWTC's former host course - El Camaleon Golf Club - and the 2023 champ, Camillo Vilegas, had finished second in Mexico at the new track - El Cardonal Golf Course - the week before he won here.

Ben Griffin won the WWTC at El Cardonal last year and he has a fair bank of form here. He led the 2022 edition after three rounds before eventually finishing third, he finished 37^th a year later and he was eighth two years ago

The first 16 editions of the WWTC were staged at El Camaleon Golf Club and form there has held up really well here.

The 2020 winner, Gay, won at El Camaleon Golf Club in 2008 and Brendon Todd won there in 2019, two weeks after he'd won here.

The link was boosted again in 2021 when Danny Lee finished second here, as he was third at El Camaleon in 2014, second in 2018, and seventh in 2022.

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Bubble Boys can contend again

Only the top 100 in the FedEx Cup standings will keep their cards at the conclusion of the Fall Series and each of the last three winners here needed a high finish to keep their playing privileges.

With a top 125 finish in the FedEx Cup Standings needed to keep their cards, both Campos and Villegas were languishing in 147^th place in the standings when they won here and the third and fourth place finishers behind Villegas, Matti Schmid and Carl Yuan, were sitting 148^th and 134^th prior to the off.

As is the case this year, only the top 100 keep their cards last year and the winner, Schenk, sat 134^th in the Standings. The runner-up, Chandler Philips, had begun the week in 139^th place.

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Great tournament for veterans and outsiders

Although Lucas Herbert was only 25 when he won here, concentrating on the older pros looks like the way to go here.

Todd was 34 when he won the inaugural event, Gay won in 2020 at the age of 48, Power was 35 four years ago, Villegas was 41 in 2023, Campos was 36 two years ago and Schenk was 33 when he took the title last year.

Going into the fourth round in 2023, three of the top five were in their 40s and Stewart Cink, who eventually finished seventh, was in his 50s so this is clearly a venue that suits the veteran contingent.

The shortness of the course certainly helps the older players but another reason why they've prospered over the years is the conditions. You can't beat experience when the wind starts howling.

Power was fairly well fancied but five of the seven previous winners have gone off at a huge price, so it's been a great event for long-shots.

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Be wary of a huge draw bias

It's well worth keeping a close eye on the forecast this week as one side of the draw could be advantaged considerably.

There's very often an acute differential and in four of the last five years, the PM-Am side of the draw have enjoyed a considerable advantage.

Last year's PM-AM side of the draw averaged 3.15 strokes less than the AM-PM wave, the latter starters on day one enjoyed an advantage of 1.54 strokes over the first two days in 2023 and 1.07 strokes in 2022. And the afternoon starters on Thursday in 2021 averaged 2.88 strokes less than the day one early starters over the first two days.

Back in 2019. the AM-PM side of the draw averaged 2.76 strokes better than those that began the event on Thursday afternoon.

Villegas won from the wrong side of the draw three years ago but it's certainly something to consider before the off.

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Winner's position and Betfair Exchange price pre-round four

2019 - Brendon Todd - solo second, trailing by two 6.611/2
2020 - Brian Gay - tied fifth, trailing by three 27.026/1
2021 - Lucas Herbert - solo third, trailing by four 8.07/1
2022 - Seamus Power - tied for the lead 2.466/4
2023 - Camilo Villegas - solo second, trailing by one 6.05/1
2024 - Rafael Campos - tied for the lead 5.69/2
2025 - Adam Schenk - tied for the lead 5.49/2

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In-play trends at Port Royal

Windy conditions often result in changeable leaderboards. Last year's champ, Adam Schenk, sat tied 14^th and four adrift after 18 holes but the first six winners had all been outside the top 15 places after round one, trailing by between three and seven strokes.

The inaugural winner, Brendon Todd, who was tied for the lead at halfway, is the only winner to be trailing by less than two strokes at halfway but five strokes is the furthest any winner has trailed by after 36 holes.

Campos trailed by five at halfway in 2024, following a 65 on Friday and he was trading at 150.0149/1 before a 62 on Saturday saw him tied for the lead with 18 to play.

Last year's winner, Schenk, sat solo sixth and three back after 36 holes and he was trading at 20/121.00.

Matched in-running at a high of 840.0839/1, Gay trailed by seven in a tie for 64^th after the opening round and he was still four adrift and tied for 12^th at halfway.

Villegas shot 63 on Friday to sit fifth and three back at halfway three years ago and he trailed by a stroke through 54 holes.

Schenk and Power are the only winners to be inside the top 25 after round one so a slow start can be overcome. Power sat tied for 16^th and only three back after 18 holes in 2022 and he was only two adrift at halfway and tied for the lead through 54 holes but we still witnessed a bit of in-play drama when the man he was tied with through three rounds, Griffin, was matched at just 1.364/11 when he led by two with seven to play.

Having hit the front, Griffin bogeyed the next four holes before double-bogeying the tough par three 16^th and we've seen players trade at odds-on and get beat in two of the last three editions.

Vilegas assumed command fairly early on in round four in 2023 but the runner-up, Alex Noren, was still matched at a low of 1.84/5 in-running and so too was Justin Lower in 2024 before Campos kicked clear to win.

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