The Sentry: Bank on Burns to kick the year off in style

• Hot putting the key to success at Kapalua

• Sony Open form a big plus

• Read Andy Swales' course and current form stats piece here

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Tournament History

The PGA Tour returns on Thursday with its traditional annual opener - The Sentry - formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

The tournament was first staged in 1953 and between 1986 and 2013 it was the season opener but in 2013 the PGA Tour switched to a wraparound format, with each season starting in the autumn, so it appeared around a quarter of the way through the season, but for the second year in-a-row, The Sentry now kicks off the new season.

The Sentry used to be a limited field event restricted only to those that had won on the PGA Tour in the previous calendar year, but there was a change to the qualifying criteria last year, when the name of the tournament was changed from the Sentry Tournament of Champions to The Sentry.

The event is open to all the 2024 PGA Tour tournament winners (including the recent Fall Series winners), plus any players that finished in the top 50 of the final 2024 FedEx Cup standings.

The Sentry is also the first of eight Designated Events on the PGA Tour.

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Venue

Plantation Course at Kapalua, Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii

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Course Details

Par 73, 7596 yards
Stroke index in 2024- 68.36

Designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, the Plantation Course opened in 1991 and it's the only par 73 on the PGA Tour rota.

It's a long but wind-exposed course with big elevation changes, wide and severely sloping fairways and large Bermuda greens that usually run at just 10 on the stimpmeter.

Unless the wind really blows, the scoring has always been super-low here but prior to the 2020 edition, the designers returned to undertake what was described as an extensive refinement and with the help of some strong winds, it appeared to do the trick, with Justin Thomas winning the title for a second time with a -14 total.

It was business as usual in 2021 though, with the two playoff protagonists, Harris English and Joaquín Niemann, reaching 25-under-par and after rain had softened the course in the lead up three years ago, in a benign and almost windless week, Cam Smith smashed the tournament record, winning in a whopping 34-under-par. That was the lowest 72 hole to-par score in the history of the PGA Tour.

The last two winners haven't gone quite as low (-27 and -29) but it's an easy track for the best players in the world if the wind doesn't blow too hard.

This will be the 27th staging in-a-row at Kapalua.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 18:00 on Thursday in the UK.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Prices

2024 - Chris Kirk -29 230.0229/1
2023 - Jon Rahm -27 8.415/2
2022 - Cam Smith -34 26.025/1
2021 - Harris English -25 42.041/1 (playoff)
2020 - Justin Thomas -14 7.06/1 (playoff)
2019 - Xander Schauffele -23 30.029/1
2018 - Dustin Johnson -24 9.417/2
2017 - Justin Thomas -22 23.022/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Sentry?

As demonstrated by last year's winner, Chris Kirk, who ranked 40^th for Driving Distance and 30^th for Driving Accuracy, neither driving metric has been essential over the years although I'd narrowly favour length over accuracy.

Kirk only ranked 19^th for Greens In Regulation and the four winners before him ranked seventh, third and third.

Kirk ranked sixth for Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and the four winners before him ranked third, third and 13^th so approach play is important but given how low the scoring is most years, this tends to turn into something of a putting competition.

Scrambling used to be a really important stat and Kirk ranked number one last year, but a strong putter has been the most important asset of late.

Kirk ranked third for Putting Average and only 11^th for Strokes Gained: Putting but the 2023 winner, Jon Rahm, ranked first for PA and second for SG: Putting and the seven winners before Kirk all ranked first or second for Putting Average and as many as 17 of the last 19 winners have ranked inside the top four for PA.

Only three of the last 12 winners have ranked first for Par 5 Scoring but half of them have ranked first for Par 4 Scoring.

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Is There an Angle In?

Next week's event, the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club, offers up the best angle in.

Kirk may have gone off at huge price, but the clues were there. He has four top five finishes at Waialae and he's twice finished runner-up there.

The 2023 winner, Rahm, has never played in the Sony but following Smith's win here in 2022, we've now witnessed six men this century win both The Sentry and the Sony Open.

In addition to Smith, Vijay Singh, Jim Furyk, Ernie Els, Zach Johnson and Justin Thomas have all won both events in the last 20 odd years and following Smith's success at St Andrews in 2022, all six are also major champions.

In addition to the six that have won both events, there's plenty of other evidence to show the two tournaments correlate strongly.

In addition to Kirk, the 2021 winner, English, finished inside the top ten in the event for three years in-a-row between 2013 and 2015 and the man he beat in extra time, Joaquin Niemann, followed up his runner-up finish here with another second at Waialae a week later.

Brandt Snedeker finished third here and second at the Sony a week later in 2016 and that was a year after Jimmy Walker had finished second here before defending the title at Waialae (traded at just 1.091/11 here before getting beat).

Back in 2015, Zach Johnson offered some insight as to why Sony Open winners do well here when he said that although the tracks are very different in style, the winds are very similar, and he felt they played alike as a result.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

The 2020 playoff was contested by three former winners, defending champions often fare well and multiple event winners are relatively common.

Kirk had course form figures reading 7-16-14-24, Rahm had finished second twice before he won two years and Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, and Steve Stricker really should have won this at least twice (Stricker arguably three times).

Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and Tiger Woods have all doubled up fairly recently. Geoff Ogilvy won the event back-to-back in 2009 and 2010 and Stuart Appleby won it three times in-a-row between 2004 and 2006.

Course experience is very important, and debutants have a poor record. Sergio Garcia and the shock 2008 winner, Daniel Chopra, are the only first timers to win here but one look is very often all you need.

Both of the 2021 playoff protagonists were playing the Plantation Course for only the second time and that's something of a trend now given five of the last 11 winners were playing in the event for just the second time.

Harris English, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele all won on their second start here and having finished 17^th and 24^th on his two previous visits, Smith didn't boast an abundance of track form either when he took the title three years ago.

Prior to Smith's success, the previous 11 winners had all been American but that was quite a strange run given that prior to 2011 an overseas player had won for nine years in-a-row.

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Bigger field may result in more longshot winners

Longshots have had a dreadful record in The Sentry since it moved to the Plantation Course so Kirk winning at such a big price last year could very easily be a one-off, but I'm not convinced.

Up until last year, the only way to qualify for The Sentry was to win an event on the PGA Tour in the previous calendar year but now that the qualifying criteria has changed, to include any player that finished in the top 50 of the final FedEx Cup standings, we may see a change to the profile of the winners here.

There were far more triple-figure priced contenders with a genuine chance of winning last year and another outsider winning this year is a distinct possibility.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Chris Kirk - led by one stroke 5.85/1
2023 - Jon Rahm - T5 - trailing by seven 29.028/1
2022 - Cam Smith tied for the lead 2.6613/8
2021 - Harris English tied for the lead 3.412/5
2020 - Justin Thomas alone in 2^nd - trailing by one 3.02/1
2019 - Xander Schauffele T4 - trailing by five 20.019/1
2018 - Dustin Johnson led by two strokes 1.625/8
2017 - Justin Thomas led by two strokes 2.265/4

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In-Play Tactics

Kirk was the fifth man to lead by a stroke through 54 holes since the event was first staged at the Plantation Course, but he was the first to go on to win.

Kirk's victory was straightforward after he'd posted a five-under-par 31 on the front-nine but we've seen a couple of strange finishes here recently.

Jon Rahm trailed Collin Morikawa by seven strokes with a round to go in 2023 and the pre-event 8.415/2 favourite was matched at as a high as 120.0119/1 after he'd bogeyed the opening hole in round four but with the leader stumbling (matched at a low of 1.021/50 and for 52k at 1.031/33, the Spaniard eventually won by two!

It was a similar story in 2019 when Xander Schauffele also won from off the pace and the 2021 runner-up, Joaquin Niemann, very nearly did too, but it's a venue that tends to favour the frontrunners as a rule.

Schauffele had been six off the lead in a tie for 19^th after round one and although he was only sixth at halfway and fifth with a round to go, he trailed by five after both rounds two and three and he was matched in-running at a high of 390.0389/1 before shooting what was then a course record equalling 62 in round four to win by a stroke, despite also bogeying the opening hole in round four.

Although Rahm was trailing by seven after three rounds he'd been tied for the lead after round one and most winners here start fast.

Garcia in 2002, Appleby in 2005 and Schauffele six years ago, all overcame slow starts but the other 23 winners at this venue have been no more than three strokes off the lead after the first round.

Since Appleby won from off the pace in 2005, only one of the 19 winners has trailed by more than three strokes after round one (Schauffele sat tied for 16^th and six off the lead in 2019) and 16 of the 19 winners have been inside the top five places and within two of the lead so even though we've seen a couple of clear leaders mess up recently, Kapalua is a very hard place to make up ground.

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Market Leaders

With the likes of Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry all swerving the event, and with Scottie Scheffler out until The American Express after injuring his hand while cooking Christmas dinner, the field isn't as strong as it could have been.

The 2019 winner, Xander Schauffele, is the favourite but he's not for me.

We haven't seen him since he finished down the field at the ZOZO Championship in October and his course form is nothing to write home about since he finished second when defending the title five years ago.

Schauffele finished fifth in 2021, but he withdrew from the tournament after the first round in 2023 and he was only 12^th in 2022 and 10^th last year.

With course form figures reading 21-1-22-3-1-3-5-25, the second favourite, Justin Thomas, is in search of his third win at Kapalua but he hasn't won anywhere since coming from way off the pace to win the 2022 US PGA Championship and he was disappointing on Sunday last time out when finishing second to Nico Echavaria at the ZOZO Championship.

The third favourite, Collin Morikawa, really should have won here two years ago and he's starting to be a bit frustrating to follow.

His sole success since winning the Open in 2021 was at the ZOZO Championship in 2023 and he could finish only 54^th in the that event when defending on his latest start.

Prior to that, he'd finished second to Scheffler at the Tour Championship, where he shot the lowest 72-hole total, and he has course from figures here that read an impressive 7-7-5-2-5 so he's highly likely to be in-the-mix again but can he get his head in front?

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Bank on Burns to kick the year off in style

I'll be back at some point, either this year or next, with the Find Me a 100 Winner column, but for now I'm playing just one before the off - Sam Burns.

The 28-year-old has played here three times previously and he doesn't have a great record.

After finishing 19^th on debut in 2022, when he shot a nine-under-par 64 in round two, he's finished only 32^nd and 33^rd but he's such a good putter that I'm happy to chance him at a juicy price.

We haven't seen Burns since he finished 13^th at the Tour Championship but he was in fine fettle before that, finishing fifth at the St Jude and second at the BMW Championship.

He hasn't won since he walloped Cam Young 6&5 in the final of the last edition of the WGC - Match Play in March 2023 but that was his fifth victory in less than two years and it's only a matter of time before he wins again.

Ranking second for Putting Average and 25^th for Par 4 Performance last season on the PGA Tour, he looks an ideal candidate for Kapalua and sooner or later he's likely to play well here.

He's ranked second, second, first, first and 11^th for Putting Average in his last five starts and I was happy to chance him modestly at 32.031/1.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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