The Punter's In-Play Blog: Will Henley end the hoodoo?

• Henley cruises clear
• Long odds-on backers may get a bumpy ride
• Power the best alternative to the leader

13:45 - November 6, 2022

Russell Henley has been relentlessly brilliant at El Camaleón this week - shooting an impressive six-under-par 65 on Saturday after back-to-back 63s to open the event and he heads into the fourth and final round of the World Wide Technology Championship later today with a six-stroke lead.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 13:40.

Russell Henley -22 1.21/5
Will Gordon -16 25.024/1
Patton Kizzire -16 29.028/1
Seamus Power -15 32.031/1
Brian Harman -14 65.064/1
Troy Merritt -14 150.0149/1
Viktor Hovland -13 90.089/1
-13 and 300.0299/1 bar

If we look at the stats alone for 54-hole six-stroke leaders on the PGA Tour, the 1.21/5 currently on offer about Henley looks a steal for anyone that likes backing long odds-on shots.

Since 1996, when Greg Norman famously lost the US Masters having led by six, only three of 24 men have failed to convert a six-stroke lead on the PGA Tour. Sergio Garcia at the Well Fargo in 2005, Spencer Levin at the Phoenix Open ten years ago and Dustin Johnson at the WGC HSBC Champions in China in 2017.

It's far from a huge sample size but given 88% have gone on to win, 1.21/5 is a generous enough price, and it's a similar percentage over on the DP World Tour since 1996 too where (not counting majors or WGCs) 18 of 21 have gone on to win. There are a couple of factors to consider that temper any enthusiasm for piling in at that price though...

Since winning the Sony Open in 2013, having been tied for the lead with a round to go, Henley has led or been tied for the lead after 54 holes five times, and he's failed every time.

He's never led by this many strokes, but he's twice given up a three-shot advantage and when he lost in a playoff at the Sony Open in January, where he'd led by two with a round to go, he'd turned for home with a five-stroke lead and he was matched at a low of just 1.061/18.

Anyone that does decide to back Henley at 1/5 needs to be prepared that it might not be smooth sailing.

My idea of the best alternative to the leader is last week's winner, Seamus Power, who's looking to emulate Brendon Todd. He won both the Bermuda Championship and this event back-to-back in 2019.

Power hasn't been overly impressive in contention, but he'll feel like he has nothing to lose today and he looks a sporting price at 32.031/1.

09:05 - November 5, 2022

Pre-event 55.054/1 chance, Russell Henley, who was matched at a high of 75.074/1 before the off, has hit back-to-back 63s around El Camaleón Golf Club to take a three-stroke lead into the weekend at the World Wide Technology Championship and he's a warm favourite to convert. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 08:50.

Russell Henley -16 2.285/4
Will Gordon -13 11.521/2
Sam Ryder -13 14.013/1
Patton Kizzire -12 26.025/1
David Lingmerth -11 44.043/1
Brian Harman -10 23.022/1
Martin Laird -10 50.049/1
Harry Higgs -10 120.0119/1
-9 and 26.025/1 bar

Henley's brilliance has really stretched the field this week and he's now eight strokes clear of the defending champion, Viktor Hovland, and ten clear of the pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler. And that pair were both trading at single-figure prices before round two.

Henley is the tenth player to hold a clear lead at the halfway stage of the event since it began in 2007 but only two of the previous nine went on to win.

Graeme McDowell took the title in extra time having led by a stroke through 36 holes in 2015 and Matt Kucher won by one having led by two at halfway in 2018.

Henley is only the third man to lead by at least three strokes. Chris Stroud finished fourth in 2011 having led by three and Emiliano Grillo gave up a four stroke halfway lead last year when he shot 74 in round three. He eventually finished fifth, beaten by seven.

This the third time in 20 months that Henley has headed into the weekend of a PGA Tour event with a clear advantage, and he'll be hoping it's third time lucky.

The 33-year-old Georgian led the Wyndham Championship by four strokes in August last year and the Sony Open by three in January, but he came up short on both occasions.

He missed out on a six-man playoff at the Wyndham by a stroke, having been matched at a low of 1.341/3, and he lost a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama in Hawaii in January despite leading by five with nine holes to play. He hit a low of 1.061/18 there.

Since converting a two-stroke lead at the Sony Open in 2013, Henley has led or co-led six times on the PGA Tour and he's failed to convert every time, finishing fourth, third, 11th, 13th, seventh and second.

We need to take on board just how strung out the field is in behind Henley here, and that he's traded very short on the last two occasions he's led at this stage, but however you dress it up, given the tournament stats and Henley's record, he looks a bit on the short side at around 5/4.

The first round leader, Will Gordon, backed up his opening 62 with a very respectable 67 and Sam Ryder has shot 64-65 to sit alongside him in a tie for second but the dangers to the leader may well come from further back.

Gordon is new to the PGA Tour and in search of his first victory and 32-year-old Ryder is winless on the PGA Tour after 141 starts.

Looking at the market this morning, the 2017 winner, Patton Kizzire, looks a reasonable price at 26.025/1 as an alternative to the leader and I've had a very small bet on him but it's a tricky one to call.

Henley looks short but I can see him trading much shorter, as he's done on the last two occasions that he's held a clear advantage, and we probably can't look too far down the leaderboard.

Hovland trailed by seven strokes at this stage when he won the first of his two titles in 2020 but he was inside the top-ten places and Pat Perez, who trailed by five at halfway in 2016, is the only winner to date not to be inside the top-ten at this stage. He sat tied for 11th.

09:30 - November 4, 2022

The first-round leaderboard at the World Wide Technology Championship doesn't contain too many surprises.

Although matched at odds in excess of 300.0299/1 before the off, the early leader, Will Gordon, who shot a nine-under-par 62, will have been a player many punters would have taken a close look at, me included, after last week's performance in Bermuda.

As highlighted in the preview, the first two winners of the Bermuda Championship, Brendon Todd, and Brian Gay, have both also won this event and Gordon gave himself an outside chance of winning there when he sat eighth and five off the lead with a round to go last week before a disappointing 75 on Sunday saw him slip outside the top-30.

Gordon, who won the Boise Open on the Korn Ferry Tour as recently as August, has now led after round one three times in his last 24 starts. And during that run, he's finished inside the top-ten after the opening round ten times so he's clearly one to bear in mind for future round one leader bets, although he hasn't always kicked on.

Gordon was tied for the lead at the Sanderson Farms Championship last month but finished tied for 30th so although we've seen three first round leaders or co leaders go on to win since the event started in 2007, he might be one to swerve.

Alone in second after an opening 63 is pre-event 55.054/1 chance, Russell Henley, and he's another player punters would have looked at closely before the off given his outstanding record in the Sony Open.

Henley won the 2013 edition and he was beaten in a playoff by Hideki Matsuyama there in January having traded at long odds-on.

That's another event that correlates brilliantly with this one given four players have won both events - the aforementioned Brian Gay, Patton Kizzire, Johnson Wagner and Matt Kuchar.

And just for good measure, despite being matched at a high of 550.0549/1 before the off, the 2015 Sony Open second, Scott Piercy, sits tied for third after an opening 64 yesterday morning.

The pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, and Viktor Hovland, who's bidding to win the event for a third year in-a-row, are at the head of the market ahead of Henley after both men shot six-under-par 65s yesterday morning to sit tied for seventh and they may not be too disadvantaged to be starting their second rounds later today...

World no. 2 Scottie Scheffler opened with a 6-under 65 today at Mayakoba.

It's his lowest opening round score to par on the PGA Tour in 2022.

? Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) November 3, 2022

There are lies, damn lies and there are statistics as the old saying goes and yesterday's AM-PM split had me scratching my head a little at first glance this morning.

With the course softened by rain, very little wind and placing in the fairways in operation, the morning wave averaged 69.33 and the top two on the leaderboard, as well as four of the top-six, all kicked the event off yesterday morning but the afternoon starters fared even better according the numbers - averaging only 69.09.

With consistent weather forecasted all day today, it doesn't look as though they'll be much of a difference between either side of the draw by the time we get to halfway but I'm still hopeful that my 120.0119/1 Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Harris English, who sits tied for third after an opening bogey-free 64 yesterday afternoon, can kick on this morning.

Hovland sat tied for 20th and six off the lead after the opening round before successfully defending last year but that's the furthest any winner has trailed by here and the previous four winners were all inside the top-five and within two of the lead after round one so concentrating on the leaders looks the way to go.

I was tempted to play Henley and he used to be great after a fast start. On the first four occasions he sat first or second after the opening round he went on to win - twice on the Korn Ferry Tour and twice on the PGA Tour - but on the last 14 occasions he's been first or second after round one he's failed to convert so I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see what today brings.

I'll be back again in the morning once we've reached the halfway stage.

Pre-Event Selections:
Big Guns v The Field @ 11/4 (Sportsbook)
Joel Dahmen @ 90.089/1
Cameron Champ @ 90.089/1

In-Play Picks:
Patton Kizzire @ 26.025/1
Seamus Power @ 32.031/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u Harris English @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Russell Knox @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter