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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Still wide-open in Texas

Steven Rawlings
03 April 2022

Dylan Frittelli - the favourite in Texas with a round to go

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There's just one to go at the Valero Texas Open but it's still wide-open with four tied at the top so read Steve's final in-running thoughts on the week here...

"As many as four men are tied at the top and there are 15 players within three of the lead."

09:55 - April 3, 2022

Golf fans and punters could be forgiven for getting ahead of themselves and shifting their attention to next week's US Masters, which I'll preview later today, but we've been served up quite a treat with the Valero Texas Open and with just one round to go, it's still a very difficult tournament to predict.

As many as four men are tied at the top and there are 15 players within three of the lead. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 9:45.

Dylan Frittelli -10 6.25/1
Beau Hossler -10 6.86/1
JJ Spaun -10 8.07/1
Brandt Snedeker -10 8.07/1
Scott Stallings -9 11.521/2
Matt Kuchar -8 21.020/1
Gary Woodland -7 22.021/1
Maverick McNealy -7 24.023/1
Si Woo Kim -7 26.025/1
Denny McCarthy -7 48.047/1
Troy Merritt -7 48.047/1
Kevin Chappell -7 50.049/1
Charles Howell -7 50.049/1
Brendon Todd -7 60.059/1
Aaron Rai -7 65.064/1
-6 and 80.079/1 bar

The stats suggest one of the front four will go on to take the title today, although with the wind picking up as the day goes on, it's going to be a tough test.

Adam Scott won the first edition of this event here from tied sixth and three off the lead and Martin Laird shot 63 in round four to win from five back nine years ago but in 11 editions of this event at TPC San Antonio, and one edition of the San Antonio Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020, seven third round leaders have converted, two players that sat second, trailing by a stroke, have gone on to win, and the 2016 winner, Charley Hoffman, sat third and just two off the lead. Off the pace winners are rare.

Dylan Frittelli, who won the John Deere Classic in 2019, heads the market but like the two maidens tied at the top - JJ Spaun and Beau Hossler - the South African doesn't have a great record when leading through 54 holes and if experience is going to count for anything, Brandt Snedeker could be the one to watch. The 41-year-old is in search of his tenth PGA Tour title and he has a decent enough record when leading through three rounds.

Here's where the four leaders have finished when they've led or been tied for the lead previously on various Tours.

Frittelli - 1-2-2-2-5
Spaun - 3-10
Hossler - 7-2-3
Snedeker - 1-3-43-1-1-6-1-2-5-1-9-1-2

Frittelli won on the Challenge Tour having led by four with a round to go nine years ago but he's been beaten on every subsequent occasion that he's led through three rounds and this is the first time that he's led on the PGA Tour through 54 holes. When he won the JDC he'd sat fifth and two back with a round to go.

Spaun would be the one I'd least expect to hold his nerve and although Hossler is yet to win, he did absolutely nothing wrong at the Houston Open four years ago when he lost a playoff to Ian Poulter on the second of three occasions that he's co-led with a round to go.

Snedeker has a mixed set of results when he's led but he has plenty of winning experience but like all the contenders, he'd love to sneak into the field next week with a win and that's a heavy burden to carry.

Of those a bit further back, Gary Woodland looks the most likely to prevail. Already in next week's field, he doesn't have that pressure to worry about and the only other player inside the top-15 that's already in next week's US Masters is Si Woo Kim.

Troy Merritt is an interesting runner given he put in quite a charge on the last occasion that Beau Hossler began round four tied for the lead - at the AT&T Pebble Beach in February.

And Kevin Streelman, who trails by four, is a big price at around 100.099/1 given he won the Travelers Championship from four back eight years ago.

I was tempted by Woodland, Merritt, and Streelman but this looks very hard to call so I'm going to stick with what I have already and sit back and enjoy the drama.

With the wind predicted to pick up, there's a chance someone could post a score form off the pace but with the course drying out and speeding up, it's very hard to see anyone shooting a low score.

We saw a 65 on Thursday and Friday but 67 was the best anyone could muster yesterday, and it won't be playing any easier today.

Like all golf fans and punters, I'm very much looking forward to next week's US Masters but this has been a very enjoyable event so far and today looks tasty.

I'll be back late this afternoon or early evening with my US Masters preview.

08:05 - April 2, 2022

The weather forecast had suggested there'd be quite a draw bias at the Valero Texas Open yesterday with Friday's early starters (those drawn PM-AM) enjoying much the better of the conditions.

The wind did get up as predicted but it wasn't as severe as expected and there wasn't an awful lot in it in the end, with those drawn PM-AM enjoying an advantage of around a quarter of stroke over the two days.

Palmer in Texas.jpg

Friday morning starter, Kevin Chappell, shot the best round of the day, a seven-under-par 65, but Texan, Ryan Palmer, who was drawn AM-PM, was one of seven players to shoot 66 yesterday, and he now leads by two. Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 8:00.

Ryan Palmer -10 6.25/1
Dylan Frittelli -8 10.09/1
Matt Kuchar -8 12.5
Kevin Chappell -8 15.5
Gary Woodland -7 9.08/1
Charles Howell -7 24.023/1
Lucas Glover -7 25.024/1
Brendon Todd -7 27.026/1
JJ Spaun -7 28.027/1
-6 and 30.029/1 bar

As highlighted in the preview, as many as 11 of the last 24 winners have been Texans and the first three in the betting this morning all have links to state.

The leader, Palmer, is a Texan, the second favourite, the 2019 US Open winner, Gary Woodland, resides in Texas, and South Africa's Dylan Frittelli went to college here. And the 2017 winner, Kevin Chappell, is also on the premises in a tie for second.

Chappell moved up more than 50 places yesterday morning but with the wind now forecasted to lay down over the weekend, it might not be so easy to make up ground and concentrating on the leaders may make sense.

There have been 11 editions of the event at TPC San Antonio and one Korn Ferry event - the San Antonio Championship in 2020 - and nine of the 12 course winners have been inside the front three at halfway.

Martin Laird trailed by five at this stage in 2013 and he was still trailing by that many after three rounds but a final round 63 saw him win by two and that's the furthest any of the 12 course winners trailed by.

Corey Conners, in this event in 2019, and Davis Riley on the Korn Ferry Tour two years ago, both trailed by four and that was how far the inaugural course winner, Adam Scott, trailed by back in 2010 but we've seen four 36-hole leaders go on to win and it's hard to envisage anyone outside the top-nine named above taking the title.

Palmer is the man to beat with a two-stroke advantage but he's not been the most reliable over the years and he hasn't won the number of titles his talent deserves.

On the first three occasions that he led at the halfway stage (once in Australia, once on the Korn Ferry Tour and once on the PGA Tour - between 2003 and 2008) he went on to win but he's since led or co-led an individual stroke play event six times on the PGA Tour without success.

He was tied for the lead after rounds two and three at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans back in 2019 before going on to win but that's a pairs event and he played alongside next week's US Masters favourite, Jon Rahm, that week.

On the last occasion he led, at the Memorial Tournament in 2020, he shot weekend rounds of 73 and 74 and he was beaten by three. And prior to that, in January 2020, he led the Farmers Insurance Open by two strokes but finished 21st!

As highlighted in the Find Me a 100 Winner column, I backed Chappell before the off at a juicy price and having backed Todd yesterday morning, I've got two live chances heading into the weekend but I have added two more.

I backed Hudson Swafford yesterday morning during the second round and that looks like a stray bullet but unperturbed, I've gone in again this morning and added one more - Brandt Snedeker.

Trailing by five in a tie for 13th, I suspect Snedeker may just be one or two strokes too far back, but he loves this course and he has a habit of winning from off the pace.

The 41-year-old has won from four, five, six and even eight adrift (twice!) at halfway so he'll believe he's in-contention even if the stats say he's up against it and I thought 130.0129/1 was a fraction big.

09:00 - April 1, 2022

In benign conditions, the scoring was decent on day one of the Valero Texas Open with the field averaging just below the par of 72 (71.84).

There was a slight bias towards the early starters with the morning lot averaging 71.53 and the afternoon wave 72.11 but with the wind predicted to rise this afternoon, the PM-AM wave look set to enjoy the better of it over the first two days combined.

Scotland's Russell Knox leads after the opening day, thanks largely to a double bogey by Rasmus Hojgaard at the ninth (the Dane's final hole of the day), but the big story was just how poorly the main contenders fared.

With the US Masters now less than a week away, the defending champion, Hideki Matsuyama shot two-over par and both Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy shot level par 72s.

Here's the first-round leaderboard with prices to back at 8:50.

Russell Knox -7 12.011/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -6 16.5
Denny McCarthy -5 19.5
Matt Kuchar -5 26.025/1
Aaron Rai -5 32.031/1
JJ Spaun -5 34.033/1
-4 and 24.023/1 bar

Russell Knox in Texas.jpg

The Valero Texas Open only moved to TPC San Antonio in 2010 so we only have 11 previous renewals to look back on here, plus one edition of the TPC San Antonio Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in July 2020, but what little evidence we do have, suggests winning from off the pace will be tough.

With the course still settling in and playing extremely soft after lots of rain, Adam Scott won the first edition played here in 2010 having sat tied for 25th and five off the lead after round one but that's the furthest any winner here has trailed by at this early stage.

The next 11 course winners were all within four strokes of the lead and inside the top-20, although strangely, all of them were trailing by at least two strokes after the opening round.

With the forecast predicting the wind to increase as the day wares on, it makes sense to focus on today's early starters and that brings in three of the four players tied for third and two off the lead - Denny McCarthy, Arron Rai and JJ Spaun - but all three are in search of their first PGA Tour wins and that's a little off-putting.

As highlighted in the preview, a good week with the putter has been key to victory here and those three all putted well in round one so it would be no surprise to see them still on the premises tomorrow morning and I've had a tiny play on Rai. The 27-year-old Englishman won the 2020 Scottish Open (a huge event on the DP World Tour) so he may just be up to taking a title of this magnitude and I thought 36.035/1 was fair.

I've also backed Brendon Todd at 80.079/1, who trails by three. He's not starting his second round until this afternoon, but I still thought that price was fair. He's one of a number of players in-contention (including the leader) with form at El Camaleon, home of the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico, and that was the course I felt correlated best before the off.

And finally, I've also thrown a few pounds at Jim Herman at a huge price. The three-time PGA Tour winner has already chalked up a Texan title in the week before the US Masters (won the Houston Open in April 2016) and although he trails by four in a tie for 30th, he does get to start early today before the wind picks up.

Pre-Event Selections:
Chris Kirk @ 50.049/1
Patton Kizzire @ 85.084/1

In-Play Picks:
Aaron Rai @ 36.035/1
Brendon Todd @ 80.079/1
Jim Herman @ 190.0189/1
Hudson Swafford @ 50.049/1
Brandt Snedeker @ 130.0129/1