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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Xander shoots clear at River Highlands

Steven Rawlings
24 June 2022

Xander Schauffele in action during the second round

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We've reached the halfway stage of both the Travelers Championship and the BMW International Open so our man's back with his latest in-running thoughts for the week here...

“Schauffele is definitely not too short at a shade of odds-on but I’m more than happy to leave him alone given how tough it is to front run at River Highlands.”

09:55 - June 25, 2022

Rory McIlroy was matched at a low of 1.981/1 to win the Travelers Championship after he'd played his first 11 holes of round two in five-under-par but disaster struck at both the 12th and the 15th holes. He played the two holes in a combined six-over-par!

As Rory fell away, the world number 15, Xander Schauffele, kicked on and after his second successive bogey-free seven-under-par 63, he heads into the weekend five clear of the field and trading at odds-on. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:40

Xander Schauffele -14 1.9520/21
Patrick Cantlay -9 9.08/1
Seamus Power -9 29.028/1
Cam Davis -9 36.035/1
Harris English -9 40.039/1
Kevin Kisner -9 40.039/1
Nick Hardy -9 50.049/1
Rory McIlroy -8 10.519/2
-8 and 65.064/1 bar

The last man to lead by five at halfway was Scottie Scheffler at the US Masters in April and he went on to win by three but three of the last five players to take a five-stroke advantage into the weekend on the PGA Tour have been beaten.

Sam Burns lost his way in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera last spring, Keith Mitchell finished third in the CJ Cup back in October and Seamus Power failed from five in front in this year's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in February but since 1996, five-stroke 36-hole leaders on the PGA Tour have a 72% strike-rate, suggesting Schauffele is a fair price at almost even money.

As highlighted yesterday, Schauffele won the Zurich Classic wire-to-wire alongside Patrick Cantlay in April, and he's fared quite well on his own when he's held the lead at this stage.

Xander's only converted one of six 36-hole leads or co-leads but he's never finished any worse than third and this is the first time he's led by more than three.

Schauffele won the Olympic gold medal almost a year ago having led by a stroke through rounds two and three and although it doesn't count as a converted halfway lead, he also posted the lowest 36-hole gross tally (132), and the lowest 72-hole total (265) at the Tour Championship in 2020 but Dustin Johnson won the title thanks to his head-start.

Schauffele is definitely not too short at a shade of odds-on but I'm more than happy to leave him alone given how tough it is to front run at River Highlands.

As highlighted in the In-Play tactics section of the preview, the third-round leader or co-leader has gone on to win only five times in the last 18 years and in that time, we've witnessed eight playoffs.

Having added Patrick Cantlay yesterday, who played nicely but missed three very short putts, I'm going to leave the event alone for now but one of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks, 200.0199/1 shot, Kevin Kisner, is tied second alongside Cantlay so I'm going to sit back and hope he can kick on today and eat into Xander's lead.

Over on the DP World Tour, Haotong Li still shows the way at the BMW International Open but the in-form Kiwi, Ryan Fox, returned to the track after a weather delay to shoot an eight-under-par 64 yesterday afternoon and he now heads the market. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:45.

Haotong Li -15 4.03/1
Ryan Fox -14 3.412/5
Daan Huizing -12 34.033/1
Thomas Pieters -11 9.28/1
Jordan Smith -11 9.417/2
Max Kieffer -10 40.039/1
-9 and 27.026/1 bar

I haven't been able to watch much of this event and as I'm not around tomorrow to see any of the final round I'm not going to dig too deeply but Fox looks a fair price at around the 5/2 mark.

Fox won the Ras al Khaimah Classic wire-to-wire in February and he's finished runner-up in his last two starts on the DP World Tour when he traded at odds-on on both occasions.

Fox was matched at 1.331/3 at the Soudal Open in Belgium before Sam Horsfield edged passed him to win by a stroke and he was really unlucky at the Dutch Open when a clumsy double-bogey at the 72nd hole and Victor Perez's red-hot putter denied him in another win.

Fox was matched at a low of just 1.021/50 when he stood on the 18th tee with a three-stroke lead, but he was caught by Perez and the Frenchman eventually got the better of him in extra-time.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, in common with TPC River Highlands, München Eichenried is a hard course to convert from the front too and we've seen winners come from as far as five strokes back with a round to go but since 1997, no course winner had been outside the top eight places with a round to go.

Li is playing superbly and tied for fourth, Jordan Smith and Thomas Pieters are lurking menacingly but none of them can be described as prolific and Fox looks a fair price.

In addition to backing Fox, I've also had a small bet on Daan Huizing, who appears to have found a new lease on life with his new wife, Daniëlle, on the bag. I highlighted his upturn in fortunes when he was a selection for the Find Me a 100 Winner column last time out in Sweden, when he missed the cut!

If I get a chance later, I will do a quick update on this event, but this could be my last entry this week and I definitely won't update the blog after the third round in the states so please refer to the In-Play Tactics sections of the two previews.

I'm attempting 72 holes of golf for Macmillan tomorrow, so it'll be an early night and a very early start as we're aiming to tee-off just after four tomorrow morning.

There's a link to our Macmillan page pinned to my Twitter page for anyone that would like to kindly sponsor us and Matt Cooper will be back on Monday with the De-brief as I won't have seen any of the action on Sunday.

11:30 - June 24, 2022

The second round of the BMW International Open on the DP World Tour is well underway and pre-event 85.084/1 chance, Haotong Li, has already been matched at a low of 2.35/4.

I'll take a look at that event once they've reached the halfway stage but at the time of writing, Li leads by four having backed up yesterday's course record equalling ten-under-par 62 with a very solid 67 this morning.

Over at the Travelers Championship on the PGA Tour, Rory McIlroy is tied for the lead with JT Poston, but the world number six, Patrick Cantlay, and the number 15, Xander Schauffele, are both on the premises. Here's the first-round leaderboard with prices to back at 11:25.

Rory McIlroy-8 3.55
JT Poston -8 28.027/1
Xander Schauffele -7 6.611/2
Patrick Cantlay -6 6.411/2
Webb Simpson -6 21.020/1
Martin Laird -6 46.045/1
Charles Howell III -6 50.049/1
Cam Davis -5 50.049/1
Matthew NeSmith -5 55.054/1
-4 and 24.023/1 bar

Rory McIlroy has now led or co-led after the first round a staggering 33 times during his career and this is the fifth time he's ended day one in front in his last 17 starts but can he go on to win this time?

Rory McIlroy at the Travelers.jpg

Rory's finishing positions on the last 13 occasions he's led after the opening round read 8-2-5-2-8-5-7-3-10-4-6-13-8 so backers need to think long and hard before taking odds of less than 3/1 and the 1.538/15 he's been matched at to finish inside the top-five looks short given he's failed to finish inside the top-five on four of the last five occasions he's led or co-led.

With current form figures reading 2-5-8-18-1-5, Rory is in sparkling form but add in the fact that since Kenny Perry won the 2009 edition, having led after round one by two strokes, we've seen more first round leaders miss the cut than win and he really does look short.

Since Perry's victory, as many as 24 players have led or co-led after the opening round of the Travelers Championship and the only two to win were course specialist, Bubba Watson, in 2015, and Jordan Spieth, in 2017. Jim Renner, David Mathis, and Andrew Loupe have all led after round one but not made it to round four!

Behind Rory, the market is struggling to split the Zurich Classic Pairs winners, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, but my preference is for the latter.

They opened up the Zurich in April with a round 59 and they won the event wire-to-wire but on the two occasions Xander's been within three of the lead after round one since that win he's shot 73 in round two and gone backwards (at the US PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament - finished 13th and 18th).

Cantlay's two behind Rory and one behind Xander but I quite like his chances and the 6.411/2 looks fair.

Cantlay shot 60 around River Highlands as an amateur so it's clearly a venue that suits his eye and in contrast to Xander's recent form, When Cantlay starts nicely he tends to hang around.

Cantlay's led or been within three of the lead after the opening round 17 times during his career to date and the worst he's ever finished is eighth. He's gone on to win four times and he's only twice finished outside the top-four!

He finished fifth at the Jacksonville Open ten years, having sat tied for 15th and three of the lead after the opening round and he had a poor Sunday at the Shriners in 2020 - falling from tied first to eighth having sat second after round one.

BMW International Open Pre-Event Selections:
Billy Horschel @ 14.5
Pablo Larrazabal @ 42.041/1

In-Play Picks:
Ryan Fox @ 3.412/5
Daan Huizing @ 34.033/1

Travelers Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Denny McCarthy @ 80.079/1

In-Play Pick:
Patrick Cantlay @ 6.411/2

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
1.5 pts Kevin Kisner @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
0.5 pt Nate Lashley @ 620.0619/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
0.5 pt James Hahn @ 620.0619/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
0.5 pt Hank Lebioda @ 630.0629/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 pt Victor Dubuisson @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 pt Daniel van Tonder @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1