11:00 - July 10, 2022
With the front three at halfway all firing over-par rounds yesterday, world number 11, Xander Schauffele, has put himself in pole position at the Scottish Open, despite dropping shots at his last two holes. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:50.
Xander Schauffele -7 2.1411/10
Rafa Cabrera-Bello -5 15.014/1
Jordan Spieth -4 7.87/1
Jordan Smith -4 16.531/2
Ryan Palmer -4 23.022/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -3 11.521/2
Cameron Tringale -3 44.043/1
Alex Smalley -3 60.059/1
Joaquin Niemann -2 50.049/1
Max Homa -2 60.059/1
Branden Grace -2 70.069/1
Gary Woodland -2 85.084/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -2 90.089/1
Kurt Kitayama -2 120.0119/1
Alex Bjork -2 160.0159/1
Joohyung Kim -2 170.0169/1
Patrick Cantlay -1 100.099/1
Tommy Fleetwood -1 120.0119/1
Rickie Fowler -1 220.0219/1
Thomas Detry -1 280.0279/1
Level par and 400.0399/1 bar
Schauffele was matched at a low 1.548/15 before he bogeyed 17 and 18 yesterday and those dropped shots have kept the event alive. Given his current form, a four-stroke lead may have given him the breathing space to relax but he's far from a shoo-in now, despite his incredible current form.
After winning the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Patrick Cantlay in April, Schauffele maintained a high level of form before winning the Travelers Championship two weeks ago (his first solo PGA Tour title since he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January 2019) and he won the 36-hole JP McManus Pro-Am as recently as Tuesday so he's in search of his third win in-a-row.
Schauffele's nearest challenger, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, is bidding to become just the third man in history to win the Scottish Open for a second time and he looks readily opposable.
Rafa's far from reliable in contention and the same can be said of Jordan Smith in a tie for third. The Englishman has been contending all season long but he's still in search of his second DP World Tour title and his first in five years.
The 2017 Open winner, Jordan Spieth, who tidied his card up very nicely yesterday with eagles at 10 and 15 is the clear and obvious danger to the leader and the brand-new US Open winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, looks a fair price at 11/1 with the Sportsbook to bounce back after yesterday's level par 70 but if the leader stutters, this event could be wide open.
All week long we've seen plenty of change on the leaderboard and an off the pace winner can't be ruled out, despite the easing of the wind today.
Bernd Wiesberger won from the front here in 2019 but the man he beat in the playoff, Benjamin Herbert, was matched at a low of 1.021/50 and he began round four tied for 13th and seven off the lead! And had Herbert prevailed, the last five Scottish Open winners would have won from off the pace...
Last year's winner, Min Woo Lee, shot 64 in round four to beat Thomas Detry and Fitzpatrick in a playoff, having trailed by three with round to go, the 2020 winner, Aaron Rai, was tied 10th and five adrift before round four, Brandon Stone trailed by three in a tie for 11th in 2018 and Cabrera-Bello was four back with a round to go when he took the title in 2017.
As many as four of the last five renewals have been won by someone closing with a round of 64 or better (Stone shot 60!) and the last three renewals went to extra time. A facile trouble-free canter to the line by Schauffele is probably unlikely.
With all that in mind, anyone under-par is still in it, and we could be in for a treat.
I've got a few on the fringes of contention, including my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Brenden Grace, so I'm going to leave the event alone for now and sit back and enjoy it.
After the weather delay on Friday, the Barbasol Championship is a bit of a mess with the leaders having only played three holes of the third round. I'm happy to leave that event alone too now but I'll be back later today with my Open Championship preview.
08:45 - July 9, 2022
We've reached the halfway stage of the Scottish Open and the draw has levelled out a bit after the opening round.
Thursday's afternoon starters were disadvantaged by as much as 3.21 strokes on day one, but the course played slightly easier yesterday morning than it did in the afternoon, so the PM-AM starters have only averaged 1.85 more than their AM-PM counterparts.
Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 08:40.
Cameron Tringale -7 5.95/1
Gary Woodland -4 13.525/2
Doug Ghim -4 30.029/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -3 6.611/2
Xander Schauffele -3 6.611/2
Jordan Smith -3 21.020/1
Kurt Kitayama -3 42.041/1
Joaquin Nieman -2 18.535/2
Tyrrell Hatton -2 19.537/2
Rickie Fowler -2 44.043/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -2 42.041/1
Rafa Cabreara-Bello -2 110.0109/1
-1 and 24.023/1 bar
Cameron Tringale has maintained his three-stroke lead despite a dodgy spell in the middle of round two which saw him record four bogeys in-a-row.
To his credit, he composed himself after that poor run - playing the final eight holes in level-par (one bogey - one birdie) but he still makes no appeal with two rounds to go.
Tringale is yet to win on the PGA Tour, and he's never been convincing in-contention. He led the Texas Open by two strokes back in April but shot 73-72 over the weekend to finish ninth - beaten by ten strokes!
Tringale's poor record in-the-mix isn't the only thing that puts me off the leader. As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, up with the pace is usually the place to be in tournaments played on links layouts but that's not been the case in this one...
Bernd Wiesberger won the 2019 edition here at the Renaissance having been tied for the lead at halfway, but the man he beat in a playoff, Benjamin Herbert, who traded at a low of just 1.021/50, had trailed by six in a tie for 30th at halfway and four of the last five event winners have been outside the top-20 and at least six strokes adrift at this stage.
Those stats suggest we can scan some way down the leaderboard and if Tringale flops the tournament is going to be blown wide-open. Take out the leader and there are as many as 28 players within four strokes. And given the last five renewals, we probably shouldn't dismiss anyone on +1 or even +2.
The brand-new US Open champ, Matt Fitzpatrick, and the man Dave Tindall's excellent 10-year trends piece highlights as the most likely winner of next week's Open Championship, Xander Schauffele, are vying for favouritism with Tringale but the value towards the top of the leaderboard may sit with the two-time Alfred Dunhill Links winner, Tyrrell Hatton, who played very nicely yesterday until he tripped up at the tough 18th, where he made double-bogey six.
I've had a small bet on Hatton at 19.018/1 and given the event's recent record, I've also thrown a few pounds on three players with work to do...
The 2016 winner, Alex Noren, who trails by eight on +1, and the 2020 runner-up, Tommy Fleetwood, who trails by nine on +2, have both won events from miles off the pace before and sitting alongside Fleetwood, the bang in-form Ryan Fox, who rallied from off the pace in Ireland to finish second only last week (traded at odds-on having trailed by five with a round to go), is also a big price.
Over at the Barbasol Championship, a lengthy weather delay yesterday means some players still have two thirds of their second rounds to play so I'm going to leave that one alone for now and I'll take another look after round three.
08:35 - July 8, 2022
The second round of the Scottish Open is underway, and this morning's starters have a mountain to climb in tricky, blustery conditions.
As many as 32 of the 38 under-par rounds shot yesterday were made by the early starters and there was a disparity in the scoring between the AM and PM starters of a colossal 3.21 strokes.
I backed afternoon starter, Stewart Cink, at 200/1 when he was two-under-par for the day, and he got to three-under with three to play but he bogeyed the last three holes! And that was fairly typical in the tough conditions.
Kurt Kitayama, who shot a four-under-par 66, ended the day as the only afternoon starter inside the top-14 and Jordan Smith (-2) was the only other late starter inside the top-26 but he's already dropped a couple of shots this morning!
As highlighted in the Find Me a 100 Winner column, I threw a few speculative pounds at the Hojgaard twins, who are both inside the top-seven and ties after round one, so I'll be cheering them on this afternoon, but this looks a tournament to treat with caution at present.
Over at the Barbasol Championship, Canada's Adam Svensson, cruised through to take up the running yesterday afternoon with a ten-under-pat 62 and he's trading at just over 3/1 this morning.
A well-supported 30.029/1 chance before the off, the three-time Korn Ferry Tour winner has a touch of class but he looks one to swerve at the price.
The Barbasol has only been in existence since 2015 but we've see ten of 11 first round leaders or co-leaders fail to kick on and win (Troy Merritt, who led by three in 2018 is the only one to win) and Svensson's record when leading after round one is abysmal.
He's led or co-led three times (once on the Canadian Tour, once on the Korn Ferry and once on the PGA Tour) and his finishing positions read 18-67-43!
All that put me off Svensson and the one I like this morning is the experienced two-time PGA Tour winner, Kevin Streelman, who sits four behind Svensson on -6.
Streelman drifted from 30.029/1 to 40.039/1 before the off but given he's no bigger than 14/1 on the High Street, I was very surprised to be able to back him at 20.019/1.
He's hardly prolific but this is a very inexperienced looking leaderboard and that's just too big given the circumstances.
18:25 - July 7, 2022
The first round of the Scottish Open is drawing to a close and the early starters have definitely had a result.
At the time of writing, only one of the afternoon starters, outsider, Kurt Kitayama, is within five of the lead and inside the top-six places and he and Stewart Cink, are the only afternoon starters inside the top-15.
The PGA Tour maiden, Cameron Tringale, who teed-off at 9:05, shows the way after firing an impressive course record equalling nine-under-par 61 but I'm happy to take him on.
Tringale, a pre-event 340.0339/1 shot is now just a shade over 5/1 but he makes no appeal whatsoever. The 34-year-old has had plenty of chances on the PGA Tour, but he's flattered to deceive every time.
The weather forecast suggests Kitayama and Co aren't going to get any better conditions in the morning, with the wind predicted to blow throughout the day and I'm more than happy to continue to be cautious.
I took a bit of the 200/1 available about Cink before he birdied the 13th hole to get within six of the lead and I'm happy to back Kitayama at 55.054/1, but other than that, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now.
There's a very long way to go and we could be surveying a very different landscape at halfway after the field have been buffeted by the wind all day tomorrow.
Over at the Barbasol Championship in Kentucky, Portugal's Ricardo Gouveia, currently leads on -8 after an opening 64 but the scoring is ridiculously easy, and he may yet get headed before the day's done.
I've made a move there too, backing Michael Kim in-running at 42.041/1, and I'll have another look at that one in the morning once they've finished the opening round. Kim's in the house on -7.
Scottish Open Pre-Event Selection:
Jack Senior Top-20 Finish @ 11/1 (Sportsbook)
In-Play Picks:
Kurt Kitayama @ 55.054/1
Stewart Cink @ 200/1 (Sportsbook)
Tyrrell Hatton @ 19.018/1
Tommy Fleetwood @ 220.0219/1
Alex Noren @ 240.0239/1
Ryan Fox @ 260.0259/1
Barbasol Championship Pre-Event Selections:
James Hahn @ 80.079/1
Michael Thompson @ 80.079/1
In-Play Picks:
Michael Kim @ 42.041/1
Kevin Streelman @ 20.019/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 pts Haotong Li @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1 pts Thorbjorn Olesen @ 260.0259/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1pt Branden Grace @ 260.0259/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
0.5 pt Kalle Samooja @ 740.0739/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 pt Kalle Samooja Top 20 finish @ 13.012/1
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