Find Me a 100 Winner: Recent winners chanced in Scotland

Steven Rawlings
06 July 2022
4 min read

Haotong Li - fancied to contend again in Scotland

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With the 150th Open Championship just over a week away, the world's elite play this week's Scottish Open but will we get another shock winner at the Renaissance Course? Steve Rawlings thinks we might...

"I’m happy to focus all my attention on the Scottish Open, where outsiders have fared really well of late."

Back Kalle Samooja Top 20 finish @ 13.012/1

The PGA Tour and the DP World Tour join forces this week for a pair of co-sanctioned events - the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Course in Scotland and the Barbasol Championship at the Keene Trace Golf Club in Kentucky.

There have been six editions of the Barbasol, which I've previewed here, and so far, we've seen only one triple figure priced winner - Jim Herman in 2019.

With the world's elite in Scotland ahead of next week's Open Championship, the Barbasol can't be described as a strong event, and it's a tricky tournament to get to grips with so I'm happy to focus all my attention on the Scottish Open, where outsiders have fared really well of late.

With their attention focused on next week, it's very difficult to know just how hard the world's best are going to contend this week and last year's Open winner, Collin Morikawa, demonstrated perfectly that a poor week in the Scottish isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Morikawa was never in the hunt, finishing tied for 71st in Scotland before winning the Open at Royal St Georges and he's far from the first Open winner to concentrate on honing the links game in this event ahead of the world's biggest event. And that may well explain why three of the last four winners have been huge outsiders.

With all that in mind, I've picked out four recent winners that could outshine the star names this week, starting with China's Haotong Li.

Hot Haotong can go in again

Winning back-to-back is unusual and not an easy task but last month's BMW International Open winner, Haotong Li, has already done it twice, so the fact that this is the 26-year-old's first start since his victory in Germany isn't necessarily a negative.

As highlighted in the preview, the stats at previous renewals around the Renaissance Course tell us that putting is the most important aspect of a player's game around this venue so the fact that Haotong ranked second for Putting Average and 12th for Strokes Gained Putting in Germany is another plus and we know he's a fine links exponent too. Li finished third in his first Open Championship appearance back in 2017.

2 pts Haotong Li @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Links lover, Olesen, primed to contend once more

Denmark's Thorbjorn Olesen finished nicely at the Irish Open last week, firing a six-under-par 66 to finish eighth and that was his best performance since he won the British Masters back in May.

A readjustment following his first victory in four years was totally understandable and it would be no surprise to see him build on last week's effort, when he topped the Strokes Gained Putting stats.

THORBJORN OLESEN August 2018.jpg

The prolific Dane won the third of his six DP World Tour titles at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and he has a pair of top-12 finishes in the Open Championship, so we know he's a fine links exponent and odds in excess of 200.0199/1 look generous.

1 pts Thorbjorn Olesen @ 260.0259/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

In-form Grace impossible to ignore

However you view the whole LIV Golf debacle there's very little doubt that it's all very depressing and damaging for the game.

Billy Horschel certainly won't be pleased to see four LIV players in the field after an appeal against their ban was lifted earlier in the week and a number of players have had their say too, including Rory McIlroy here.

"There's a lot of guys that are hypocrites, that aren't telling the truth, that are lying about some things that I can't stand to just sit here and be diplomatic about it"

Seven-time PGA Tour Champion, Billy Horschel speaks about the LIV Tour events pic.twitter.com/3iyq9HR3VD
? Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) July 5, 2022

A number of LIV players have been in Ireland playing in the JP MacManus Pro Am (won by Xander Schauffele) without any issues but the four players suddenly in the field here - Justin Harding, Adrian Otaegui, Ian Poulter and Brenden Grace - may receive an icier welcome.

The four have been allocated pairings at the beginning of the AM and PM sides of the draw and some are viewing that as a big negative but I'm not so sure. I'm also far from convinced the Tour could do anything different given their late inclusion.

LIV golfers didn't fare well in the recent US Open and the unwanted four are going to need a serious bunker mentality to cope with the flak this week. They're going to be up against from all fronts but I can't ignore how well links specialist, Branden Grace, is playing to dismiss his chance out of hand.

It's 10 years since Grace won the Volvo Golf Champions event around the Fancourt links and since he held of Olesen to win the Dunhill Links Championship. It's nine years since he was beaten in a playoff in this event by Phil Mickelson and it's five years since he became the first man in history to shoot 62 in a major when he fired an eight-under-par 62 around Royal Birkdale in the 2017 Open Championship.

Grace is an undisputed links specialist, and he arrives in form having won last week's LIV Golf Invitational Portland event

.
1pt Branden Grace @ 260.0259/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Hot-putting Kalle worth chancing

Given how great a tournament this has been for outsiders, I've thrown a few pounds at the Hojgaard twins, South Africa's Tristan Lawrence, who contended strongly last week, and one of last week's selections, Andy Sullivan, at huge odds but my last official pick for the column is the recent European Open winner, Kalle Samooja, who's ordinarily a fine putter.

Ironically, he won from off the pace in Germany last month thanks to his tee-to-green game and despite a cold putter but that just shows how high his ceiling might actually be.

Samooja has a fine record around desert tracks, that often play links-like, and he was ninth here two years ago when woefully out of form. He's a huge price given he's a recent winner and I'm also happy to play him at a double-figure price to finish inside the top-20.

0.5 pt Kalle Samooja @ 740.0739/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 pt Kalle Samooja Top 20 finish @ 13.012/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter