The Punter's In-Play Blog: Is Rickie ready to win again?

• Fowler favourite with a round to go

• Play brought forward in Detroit

• Canadians chanced to edge out the leader

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09:20 - June 2, 2023

The threat of lightning caused a delay of an hour and a half during the third round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic yesterday, when the leaders had played just four holes, and the threat of more bad weather has resulted in today's final round being brought forward several hours.

The field will play in three-balls instead of two-balls and the leading trio will tee-off at 13:55 UK time, just 35 minutes after the leaders have teed off in round four of the British Masters, so it's going to be hectic afternoon/evening!

It's impossible to know how players will react to a weather delay but it's fair to say yesterdays hindered my man, Taylor Moore, but helped the pre-event 17.533/2 chance, Rickie Fowler.

The hooter went off just after Moore had eagled the par five fourth and hit a splendid tee on the par three fifth, but he struggled to get going when play resumed.

Moore was matched at a low of 4.3100/30 when he rolled in his birdie at five but that was as good as it got for the 80.079/1 chance as his putting touch deserted him. In contrast, Fowler birdied six of his last eight holes and he's now the man to beat with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:10.

Rickie Fowler -20 2.0421/20
Adam Hadwin -19 5.49/2
Taylor Pendrith -18 9.89/1
Aaron Rai -17 17.016/1
Peter Kuest -17 42.041/1
Collin Morikawa -16 17.016/1
Taylor Moore -16 32.031/1
Dylan Wu -16 55.054/1
Carl Yuan -16 65.064/1
Justin Lower -16 85.084/1
-14 and 200.0199/1 bar

Up with the pace is the place to be here if the first four editions are anything to go by.

Cam Davis sat tied third and one adrift with a round to go in 2021 and Bryson DeChambeau came from three adrift to win in 2020 but he sat second, and he was aided greatly by the 54-hole leader, Matthew Wolff, who shot a disappointing 71 on Sunday.

The other two winners were in front after three rounds. The inaugural winner, Nate Lashley, was six clear and last year's winner, Tony Finau, was tied with Taylor Pendrith.

Fowler was matched at odds-on last night (1.981/1) after he finished his round with a birdie and Pendrith bogeyed the last but he's drifted slightly since then and I'm not surprised.

Fowler has led 12 times worldwide and he's gone on to win four times. That's not a bad strike rate but on the four occasions he's won, he's led by four, four, four and two strokes and on the last eight occasions he's led or co-led he's shot rounds of 74, 74, 71, 73, 74, 71, 70 and 75. Only twice has he shot rounds in the 60s when in front and they were in Korea and Abu Dhabi on low-scoring layouts.

In addition, a week after falling from tied first to fifth at the US Open (shot 75), he fell from tied fourth to 13th at the Travelers Championship last week, when he shot 69 in round four after a sensational 60 on Saturday.

With just one win on the PGA Tour (the 2019 Phoenix Open) in the last six years, I'm happy to take him on at around even money.

Adam Hadwin, who sits alone in second and just one back, needs to back up yesterday's course record equalling nine-under-par 63, and that won't be easy, but given the stats, and given I'm already on Pendrith, who's alone in third and two off the lead, I'm happy to get him onside at 5.59/2 and take Fowler on with the Canadian pair rather than lay the leader.

It's going to be tough for anyone any further back to take the title given the set-up and that looks the best way to take on the leader.

20:10 - June 1, 2023

On a tricky and blustery day at the Belfry, the pre-event favourite and first round leader, Justin Rose, disappointed with a two-over par 74 in the third round of the British Masters today and so too did the likes of Antoine Rozner, Thorbjorn Olesen and Yannik Paul, who have all gone from being bang in-the-mix to almost certainly out of it.

On a day when a four-under-par 68 was the best anyone could muster, my 660.0659/1 Find Me a 100 winner pick, James Morrison, is one of six men tied for the lead after a two-under-par 70 and so too is my 65.064/1 halfway fancy, Guido Migliozzi, who was one of the eight to shoot 68. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 20:00.

Joost Luiten -7 7.06/1
Guido Migliozzi -7 7.06/1
Andy Sullivan -7 8.88/1
Niklas Norgaard -7 9.08/1
Oliver Wilson -7 16.015/1
James Morrison -7 16.015/1
Max Kieffer -6 12.011/1
Romain Langasque -5 23.022/1
Justin Walters -5 40.039/1
Bryce Easton -5 60.059/1
Justin Rose -4 23.022/1
-4 and 44.043/1 bar

We can expect plenty of drama tomorrow if the last three events here are any sort of gauge...

The UK Championship produced a dramatic finale in 2020 with Martin Kaymer trading at a low of 1.341/3 and Justin Walters touching evens before both were beaten by Rasmus Hojgaard in a playoff, and Guido Migliozzi traded at a low of 1.251/4 in regulation play in 2021, before three-putting the 17th hole. And even though last year's winner, Olesen, began round four with a commanding three-stroke lead, we witnessed all sorts of shenanigans on the back-nine on Sunday.

In search of his first win in four years, Olesen struggled badly in round four and having been matched at a low of 1.75/7, the Dane drifted all the way out to 44.043/1 as it looked like he'd thrown the event away.

Rickie Ramsay was matched at a low of 1.42/5 before he double-bogeyed the 72nd hole and Sebastian Soderberg was matched at just 1.061/18 as he sat in the clubhouse on -9 but incredibly, having finished round three with an eagle at 17 and a birdie at 18, for the second day in-a-row, Olesen finished his round in style, eagling 17 from 30 feet to tie Soderberg, before birdying the last from 36 feet to pass him!

There must be a strong possibility that one of the six players tied for the lead shoots a low enough final round to take the title tomorrow but six of the last eight course winners came from behind, trailing by two, three (x3), four and five strokes, so it can't be described as frontrunners course.

Just one week after trading at a low of 1.42/5 at the BMW International Open, where he missed a tiny par putt at the 71st hole before losing by a stroke to Thriston Lawrence, Joost Luiten has put himself back into contention, and he's vying for favouritism with a round to go but he's not the only one in-contention in search of immediate redemption.

Max Kieffer hit a low of 3.711/4 when he got to within one of Luiten but he blew his chance when he hit a poor drive into the water at the drivable 16th.

Given he ranks fourth for Greens In Regulation and first for Scrambling after three rounds (the two important stats at the Belfry), Niklas Norgaard is a very obvious candidate and so too is the three-time DP World Tour winner, Guido Migliozzi, who plays with Luiten in the final two-ball but I'm happy to leave the event alone now and just cheer on Migliozzi and Morrison.

Rose is one of 12 players tied for 11th and three off the lead and none of them can be discounted but with the weather forecast suggesting a very similar day to today, scoring is likely to be tough again and they'll need help from the leaders.

08:50 - June 1, 2023

Having been matched at as low as 2.68/5, when none of the early starters made a significant move in round two of the British Masters, afternoon starter and round one leader, Justin Rose, drifted out to above 7/18.00 when he played his first ten holes of round two in four-over-par.

The pre-event favourite didn't make his first birdie until he hit a fabulous tee-shot on the tough par three 12th and that seemed to ignite him. He played his last seven holes in three-under-par to climb back to the top of leaderboard and to cement his place at the head of the market. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:40.

Justin Rose -6 3.953/1
Antoine Rozner -6 10.519/2
Thorbjorn Olesen -5 12.011/1
Yannik Paul -5 12.523/2
Niklas Norgaard -5 23.022/1
Andy Sullivan -5 26.025/1
James Morrison -5 50.049/1
Oliver Wilson -5 80.079/1
John Gough -5 90.089/1
Robert MacIntyre -4 19.018/1
Ewen Ferguson -4 34.033/1
Ryo Hisatsune -4 50.049/1
Alex Bjork -3 30.029/1
-3 and 44.043/1 bar

With as many as nine players within a stroke of the lead and 20 players within three of Rose and co-leader, Antoine Rozner, this is a wide-open affair.

The last two course winners, Richard Bland and Thorbjorn Olesen, were on the premises throughout, but Rasmus Hojgaard sat tied for 24th and seven off the lead when he won the UK Championship here in 2020 and Angel Cabrera and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano both won here this century having sat outside the top-ten at halfway.

Those stats suggest we can scan some way down the leaderboard so I certainly haven't given up on pre-event fancy, Richie Ramsay, who sits tied for 21st and four off the lead, and I've added one more in-play pick - the 2021 runner-up, Guido Migliozzi.

The Italian is amongst the group tied for 13th and just three off the lead and I thought he was a fair price at 65.064/1.

Over on the PGA Tour, my sole selection, 80.079/1 chance, Taylor Moore, who was also one of Dave Tindall's each-way selections, is tied for the lead with Canada's Taylor Pendrith, but the well-fancied trio of Rickie Fowler, Ludvig Aberg and Collin Morikawa are on the premises too. Here's the halfway leaderboard at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with prices to back at 8:45.

Taylor Moore -13 8.27/1
Taylor Pendrith -13 10.519/2
Rickie Fowler -12 5.04/1
Ludvig Aberg -12 9.08/1
Collin Morikawa -11 8.415/2
Adam Schenk -11 20.019/1
Aaron Rai -11 21.020/1
Justin Lower -11 65.064/1
Cam Davies -10 25.024/1
Sepp Straka -10 29.028/1
Adam Hadwin -10 36.035/1
-10 and 60.059/1 bar

This is only the fifth edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club, so we don't have much evidence to look back on but being up with the pace is usually the place to be at a low-scoring birdie-fest like this, and that's been the case so far here.

The inaugural winner, Nate Lashley, won wire-to-wire, the 2020 winner, Bryson DeChambeau, sat third and just one off the lead at this stage and last year's winner, Tony Finau, sat second and one off the lead at halfway.

The 2021 winner, Cam Davies, sat sixth at halfway but he only trailed by two and the two men he beat in the playoff, Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merritt, sat first and third.

The leaderboard contains well-tipped up players and players with course form already in the bank so there are no big surprises.

Co-leader, Taylor Pendrith, who has a brilliant bank of form at Donald Ross tracks, finished runner-up 12 months ago, Taylor Moore was sixth here on his only previous visit, and the 2021 winner, Cam Davies is just three off the lead.

Although he's playing some superb golf at present, I always want to be against Rickie Fowler in-contention, but I was very tempted to get Morikawa onside.

His second round last week at the Travelers Championship, that wasn't quite enough to see him make the cut, was extremely eye-catching and he's carried that form forward, but the one that represents value at this stage has to be the co-leader, Pendrith.

The Canadian, who clearly loves the layout, is no bigger than 8/19.00 on the High Street and generally a 7/18.00 chance, so 10.519/2 is more than fair.

He's never won on the PGA Tour and he's not been convincing in-the-mix yet. He lost a three-stroke 54-hole lead at the Bermuda Championship back in 2021 and having been tied for the lead here through 54 holes 12 months ago, he shot a disappointing 72 in round four here but I'm happy to chance him modestly at what looks a generous price.

It blew a gale when he lost his swing in Bermuda and Tony Finau was unbeatable here last year (won by five) so excuses can be made.

It's never easy to back up a low round so Andrew Landry will have his work cut out after yesterday's nine-under-par 63, but given he's a two-time PGA Tour winner, who very rarely contends, and that he trails by only three strokes, I was more than happy to take a small chance on him at a monster price.

He may well tumble down the leaderboard after shooting the lowest round of the week so far but if he can back up yesterday's brilliance, 190.0189/1 is a ludicrous price about a proven winner.

17:55 - May 29, 2023

The first round of the British Masters is still ongoing and the afternoon starters at the Rocker Mortgage Classic are yet to start the event but I've already made a move on the DP World Tour so I thought I'd kick the blog of nice and early.

The pre-event favourite, Justin Rose, has kicked off the British Masters at the Belfry with a seven-under-par 65 and regardless of whether Spain's Sebastian Garcia catches him to deny first round backers or not (currently one behind Rose with four to play but in the water on the sixth), the veteran Englishman looks too short at 2.89/5 with so long to go.

Rose has led or co-led after the opening round 25 times across the world since 1999 and he's only gone on to win on four occasions.

The last time he failed to kick on and take the title was at the US Masters last year and prior to that it was at the US Open and the Charles Schwab Challenge so it goes without saying that this is a far easier opportunity, but I still feel he's a bit on the skinny side given how hard it to lead here.

We've seen 14 players lead or co-lead after round one at the Belfry this century and only two have gone on to win.

Thorbjorn Olesen won wire-to-wire last year, but he was matched at 44.043/1 during round four and he needed both a miracle finish (eagle-birdie) and others to falter.

In addition to opposing Rose, I've also had a small wager on Ewen Ferguson, who was very close to the top of my shortlist before the off.

If I'd have backed a third player before the off on Tuesday it would have been him and had he drifted to a triple-figure price earlier than late on Wednesday he would have been a selection for the Find Me a 100 Winner column so when he was four-over-par after just four holes this morning, I thought I'd caught a bit of a break.

Unsurprisingly, the Scotsman was matched at 700.0699/1 after his awful start but he kicked on nicely after the awful start, playing the remaining 14 holes in seven-under-par!

He trails Rose by four but I was happy to get him onside at 55.054/1.

British Masters Pre-Event Selections:
Jorge Campillo @ 55.054/1
Richie Ramsay @ 65.064/1

In-Play Trades:
Justin Rose layed @ 2.89/5
Ewen Ferguson backed @ 55.054/1
Guido Migliozzi @ 65.064/1

Rocket Mortgage Pre-Event Selection:
Taylor Moore @ 80.079/1

In-Play Picks:
Taylor Pendrith @ 10.519/2
Andrew Landry @ 190.0189/1
Adam Hadwin @ 5.59/2

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
1.5 u C.T Pan @ 200.0199/1 (Non-Runner)
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 u Garrick Higgo @ 210.0209/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
0.5 u Angel Hidalgo @ 420.0419/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
0.5 u James Morrison @ 660.0659/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

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