Rocket Mortgage Classic: Birdie-fest expected in Detroit

• Hot putters likely to fight out the finish

• Sedgefield form worth pondering

• Up with the pace the place to be

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Tournament History

The Rocket Mortgage Classic replaced the National, formerly the Quicken Loans National, on the PGA Tour schedule four years ago.

It was the first PGA Tour event to be staged in Michigan since the final edition of the Buick Open at Warwick Hills back in 2009 and it's the first PGA Tour event to ever be played in Detroit.

The first three editions were staged at the end of June or the start of July but last year's edition was shuffled back to the end of July.

Venue

Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, Michigan.

Course Details

Par 72, 7,370 yards

Stroke Index in 2022- 70.4

There are two courses at the Detroit Golf Club, the North and the South. Both were designed by Donald Ross and the tournament is predominantly staged at the longer North, although the third hole is the par four first hole on the South Course.

Detroit's fairways are tree-lined and the small Poa Annua greens usually run at around 12 ½ on the Stimpmeter.

Detroit is not a stern examination by any means. Tony Finau won with a 262 -26 total last year and the 2020 scoring average of 70.06 was the lowest among all par 72s during the 2019-20 season. The cut was five-under-par!

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Weather

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 17:00 on Thursday.

First Four Winners with Exchange Prices

• 2019 - Nate Lashley -25 1000.0999/1
• 2020 - Bryson DeChambeau -23 6.05/1
• 2021 - Cam Davis (playoff) -18 120.0119/1
• 2022 - Tony Finau -26 19.018/1

What Will it Take to Win?

With only four editions to evaluate, it's hard to say how much use the stats are but here's the top-three and ties at the first four renewals with all the traditional stats - Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, Greens In Regulation, Scrambling and Putting Average.

2019

• 1 Nate Lashley -25 DD 43 DA 11 GIR 4 SC 3 PA 2
• 2 Doc Redman -19 DD 34 DA 47 GIR 18 SC 8 PA 16
• T3 Wes Roach -18 DD 30 DA 28 GIR 25 SC 5 PA 13
• T3 Rory Sabbatini -18 DD 43 DA 1 GIR 47 SC 25 PA 4

2020

• 1 Bryson DeChambeau -23 DD 1 DA 58 GIR 13 SC 29 PA 7
• 2 Matthew Wolff -20 DD 5 DA 25 GIR 54 SC 61 PA 1
• 3 Kevin Kisner -18 DD 39 DA 16 GIR 39 SC 13 PA 2

2021

• 1 Cam Davis -18 DD 7 DA 29 GIR 24 SC 16 PA 15
• T2 Troy Merritt -18 DD 48 DA 1 GIR 24 SC 30 PA 2
• T2 Joaquin Niemann -18 DD 24 DA 37 GIR 24 SC 1 PA 22

2022

• 1 Tony Finau -26 DD 34 DA 3 GIR 1 SC 1 PA 35
• T2 Patrick Cantlay -21 DD 5 DA 38 GIR 33 SC 11 PA 7
• T2 Taylor Pendrith -21 DD 22 DA 16 GIR 8 SC 58 PA 2
• T2 Cameron Young -21 DD 7 DA 18 GIR 17 SC 5 PA 6

And here are the top-three and ties with the Strokes Gained stats - SG: Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green and SG: Putting.

2019

• 1 Nate Lashley -25 TEE 31 APP 6 ATG 13 T2G 3 PUTTING 2
• 2 Doc Redman -19 TEE 25 APP 18 ATG 11 T2G 10 PUTTING 11
• T3 Wes Roach -18 TEE 32 APP 9 ATG 5 T2G 1 PUTTING 31
• T3 Rory Sabbatini -18 TEE 9 APP 25 ATG 39 T2G 14 PUTTING 10

2020

• 1 Bryson DeChambeau -23 TEE 1 APP 51 ATG 26 T2G 4 PUTTING 1
• 2 Matthew Wolff -20 TEE 13 APP 16 ATG 37 T2G 10 PUTTING 5
• 3 Kevin Kisner -18 TEE 24 APP 10 ATG 48 T2G 13 PUTTING 11

2021

• 1 Cam Davis -18 TEE 34 APP 9 ATG 5 T2G 4 PUTTING 22
• T2 Troy Merritt -18 TEE 23 APP 33 ATG 29 T2G 17 PUTTING 2
• T2 Joaquin Niemann -18 TEE 7 APP 24 ATG 31 T2G 7 PUTTING 8

2022

• 1 Tony Finau -26 TEE 2 APP 6 ATG 9 T2G 1 PUTTING 15
• T2 Patrick Cantlay -21 TEE 10 APP 8 ATG 17 T2G 7 PUTTING 12
• T2 Taylor Pendrith -21 TEE 7 APP 5 ATG 52 T2G 8 PUTTING 10
• T2 Cameron Young -21 TEE 3 APP 45 ATG 2 T2G 4 PUTTING 24

The stats don't tell us an awful lot but unsurprisingly, given the event is essentially a straightforward low scoring birdie-fest, putting has been key.

The first two winners ranked first and second for Strokes Gained Putting and four of the top-five in the Putting Average rankings finished inside the top-five and ties at both of the first two renewals. Merritt ranked second for both SGP and PA when finishing second in 2021 and Taylor Pendrith, who finished tied second 12 months ago, ranked second for PA.

Is There an Angle In?

Form at Donald Ross courses often transfers well so check out results at East Lake, home of the Tour Championship, Sedgefield Country Club, which hosts the Wyndham Championship, and Aronimink, which staged the BMW Championship in 2018, won by Keegan Bradley, as well as the National way back in 2010 and 2011.

This year's US PGA Championship was staged at Ross-designed Oak Hill so that's an event to consider and form at the Knoxville Open on the Korn Ferry Tour came to the fore last year.

Stephan Jaeger, who won the Knoxville Open at the Ross-designed Holston Hills in 2018 (also second in 2021) finished fifth and the 2016 Knoxville Open winner, J.J Spaun, finished eighth, but the Wyndham Championship is arguably the best tournament to ponder.

Sedgefield specialist, Webb Simpson, led here at halfway in 2020, the 2021 Wyndham winner, Kevin Kisner, clearly loves it here, one of the Tour's lesser lights, Doc Redman, has form at both venues, and Tom Kim won the Wyndham last year, one week after finishing seventh here.

The Country Club of Jackson - home to the Sanderson Farm Championship may also be worth a close look.

Although they fell away a bit over the weekend, three SFC winners were in the top-ten at the halfway stage in the first edition of this event - Cameron Champ, Ryan Armour, and the 2103 Knoxville Open winner, Peter Malnati, - and the runner-up at the SFC back in October, Nick Watney, who very rarely contends nowadays, sat second after round one here in 2019.

Cameron Young boosted the link last year when he finished second in this event, nine months after finishing runner-up in the Sanderson Farms.

The composite used at Jackson for the SFC was designed by Dick Wilson so it didn't come up in my initial research four years ago (looking at other Donald Ross courses) but it was extensively remodelled in 2008 by John Fought - a designer described as being heavily influenced by Ross - so form there might be worthy of close inspection.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

We've only had four editions and it's been a mixed bag so far. The first and third editions were dominated by outsiders but the 2020 winner, Bryson DeChambeau, has won eight times on the PGA Tour (including the 2020 US Open) and three of the top-four last year can be described as top-class.

Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

• 2020 - Nate Lashley - Led by six 1.222/9
• 2020 - Bryson DeChambeau - T2 and three off the lead 3.55/2
• 2021 - Cam Davis - T3, trailing by a stroke 8.07/1
• 2022 - Tony Finau - Tied for the lead 1.865/6

In-Play Tactics

This will be a low scoring event and making up lots of ground will be tough.

Lashley won the first edition wire-to-wire, DeChambeau and Cam Davies were never far away and Finau almost led from start to finish.

DeChambeau sat tied for fourth and one off the lead after round one, tied third and still just one back after round two and he sat tied for second with a round to go. Davies trailed by five in a tie for 21^st after round one but he sat sixth and two back at halfway and he was just one off the lead with a round to go. Finau was leading after rounds one and three, he sat second at halfway but was only one adrift of Taylor Pendrith and those two were tied for the lead after round three and the pair were four clear of the rest.

The two players that Davis beat in extra time two years ago - Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merritt - were always in the van too. Niemann was tied for the lead after rounds two and three and Merritt was tied third and one back at halfway and tied with Nieman after 54 holes.

Concentrating on the leaders from very early on will probably play dividends.

Market Leaders

The market is struggling to split the bang-in-form, Rickie Fowler, and the defending champions, Tony Finau, with the former just shading favouritism.

A week after leading the US Open with a round to go (finished fifth), Fowler shot 60 from off the pace in the third round of the Travelers Championship. In search of his fourth top-ten finish in-a-row on the PGA Tour, Fowler's 69 on Sunday saw him end the week in 13^th place but it's never easy to back up a super low round and he's trending in the right direction.

Fowler has course form figures reading 46-12-32-MC.

Finau was very impressive when he won the Mexico Open in April but he hasn't backed that up at all, putting up form figures reading 23-72-MC-32-45, and on the four occasions that he made the cut after his victory there he's ranked only 52^nd, 73^rd, 59^th and 62^nd for Strokes Gained Putting so he makes very little appeal.

Collin Morikawa missed the cut at the Travelers last week but that was all down to his lacklustre start on Thursday. He followed an opening 74 with a brilliant 63 on Friday but it wasn't quite enough to see him start on the weekend. He's making his course debut this week and he'll be very keen to get going after last week.

Justin Thomas has been playing poorly for some time, but he caught the eye last week when he finished ninth at the Travelers, thanks largely to a 64 on Friday and 62 in round three.

If he builds on last week he's likely to contend but one swallow doth not a summer make and like Morikawa, Thomas is playing here for the first time, so I'm happy to swerve him.

Selection

I'm in complete agreement with Dave Tindall re the chances of Taylor Moore, and he's a great price on the exchange at 80.079/1.

As Dave highlights, he has form at Donald Ross designed tracks (including his sixth her on debut 12 months ago) and if he can find some improvement with the flatstick, I can see him contending.

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