07:40 - October 9, 2022
An immaculate bogey-free six-under-par 65 in round three on Saturday has seen the pre-event favourite and world number six, Jon Rahm, hit the front at the Open de España. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:20.
Jon Rahm -16 1.715/7
Min Woo Lee -15 5.24/1
Eddie Pepperell -13 23.022/1
Louis De Jager -13 30.029/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -13 30.029/1
Matthieu Pavon -13 34.033/1
Marc Warren -13 50.049/1
Stephen Gallacher -13 60.059/1
-12 and 60.059/1 bar
It's very hard to look past Rahm. There have been ten tournaments staged at the Club de Campo Villa de Madrid since 1996 and seven of the ten winners were in front with a round to go.
The last four course winners led through 54 holes and Rahm's record when leading after three rounds is perfectly fair too.
The Spaniard has only a 50% strike rate when leading after three rounds but he can't be blamed for one of his three losses. He led the Memorial Tournament by six after 54 holes in June last year but had to withdraw due to a positive Covid test.
Rahm is looking to win his third Open de España and that's arguably the only negative. The prospect of matching the legendry Seve Ballesteros' record in the tournament will add a bit of a pressure but all things considered, he looks a fair price at around 1.75/7.
Min Woo Lee is the obvious danger and I'll be cheering on my halfway pick, Eddie Pepperell, who trails by three after missing a short birdie putt on the 18th hole in round three, but I've resigned myself to a Rahm victory.
Over at the Shriners Children's Open, the 2017 winner and pre-tournament favourite, Patrick Cantlay, began yesterday's third round with six straight threes and he kept the peddle down all day.
The world number four turned in 29 and after a run on the back nine that saw him make five birdies in six holes form the 12th, he stood over a 24-footer for birdie on the 18th green to post his first ever 59 to break the course record.
He gave the putt a great go but hit it fractionally firm, so had to settle for a second career 60 (also shot 60 at the Travelers Championship in 2011 when still an amateur) and a share of the 54-hole lead as my pre-event pick, Tom Kim, shot a bogey-free 62 to sit alongside Cantlay. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:20.
Patrick Cantlay -19 2.166/5
Tom Kim -19 3.1511/5
Mito Pereira -16 24.023/1
Matthew NeSmith -16 26.025/1
Sungjae Im -15 22.021/1
S.H Kim -15 70.069/1
-14 and 70.069/1 bar
As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, three of the last four winners were in front after 54 holes and 10 of the last 16 winners have been leading or co-leading with a round to go so it's hard to imagine one of the front two not going on to win.
The more experienced Cantlay began the week at the head of the market and he's still the man to beat but I'm hopeful that Kim can get the better of him today.
The pair met twice at the recent Presidents Cup - in the fourballs on Thursday, when Cantlay and Xander Schauffele got the better of Kim and Hideki Matsuyama (3&2) and again on the Saturday when Kim got his revenge alongside Si Woo Kim, beating Cantlay and Schauffele 1up.
Kim won the Wyndham Championship in fantastic style in August, shooting 61 on Sunday to win by five and he's the only man in the field to be bogey-free this week.
There's a chance that either or both may struggle to back up yesterday's low rounds, but the stats suggest one of them will prevail and we may well get to witness quite a shootout.
This is Cantlay's fifth appearance at TPC Summerlin and he's contended every time.
He won here on debut back in 2017 in a playoff having trailed by four with a round to go and on the three subsequent times he's played in the event he's been beaten having been closer to the lead through 54 holes.
He finished second when defending in 2018, having sat fourth and two back with a round to go, and he lost a playoff to Kevin Na in 2019 having trailed by two through 54 holes, so he did little wrong on those occasions but he performed really poorly on Sunday when he played here in 2020.
Cantlay went into the final round tied for the lead alongside Martin Laird and trading at 2.8615/8 but he never got going and he eventually finished eighth after a 73 on Sunday.
There's a very slight chance that Cantlay has a few negative vibes following his flop here two years ago and I'm more than happy to stick with Kim, whose been completely fearless whenever we've seen him so far.
09:30 - October 8, 2022
We've reached the halfway stage of both the Open de España and the Shriners Children's Open so here are the two leaderboards with prices to back at 9:20.
Open de España
Paul Waring -12 10.09/1
Stephen Gallacher -12 22.021/1
Hennie Du Plessis -11 10.519/2
David Drysdale -11 44.043/1
Jon Rahm -10 2.767/4
Min Woo Lee -10 12.011/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -10 20.019/1
Matthieu Pavon -10 22.021/1
Darius Van Driel -10 46.045/1
Eddie Pepperell -9 24.023/1
-9 and 50.049/1 bar
Shriners Children's Open
Mito Pereira -12 7.06/1
Robby Shelton -11 15.014/1
Tom Kim -10 8.27/1
Si Woo Kim -10 11.010/1
Maverick McNealy -10 16.015/1
Cam Davis -9 19.018/1
Kevin Streelman -9 42.041/1
Chad Ramey -9 85.084/1
Patrick Cantlay -8 9.417/2
Max Homa -8 20.019/1
-8 and 26.025/1 bar
Having traded at odds-on as early as Thursday morning, Jon Rahm looked like he was going to lose touch with the leading pack at the Open de España yesterday afternoon.
After back-to-back bogeys at 10 and 11, the world number six, who's bidding to win the tournament for a third time, was matched at a high of 6.411/2.
Disgruntled and muttering about being unable to focus, his backers must have thought they were in trouble, but a player of Rahm's ability is always capable of turning things around quickly and that's exactly what he did.
Birdies at 12, 13 and 14 followed the pair of dropped shots and after another birdie at 16, he looked highly likely to close to within a stroke of the lead when he hit his approach to four feet at the last. Rahm unexpectedly missed the putt but he's the firm favourite at halfway and he looks a fairer price this morning at around 7/4 than he did yesterday at evens.
Looking at past results, it's a bit of a mixed bag here. In the ten events staged since 1996, four winners have led or co-led at halfway and eight of the ten have been within three of the lead and inside the top-eight places, but it is possible to win from off the pace. Steen Tinning won the Open de Madrid from tied 18th and six off the lead and Ricardo Gonzalez took that title 12 months later having trailed by 11 strokes in a tie for 28th!
Given the strength of the leaderboard, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Rahm kick on and win but the one I like at this stage is Eddie Pepperell, who trails by three.
At the halfway stage, the Englishman's stats are incredibly good. He ranks only 120th for Driving Distance but he ranks tenth for Driving Accuracy and first for Greens In Regulation, Scrambling and Sand Saves. Unsurprisingly he's ranking number one for Strokes Gained Approach and as high as sixth for SG tee-to-Green.
Pepperell's putting figures aren't great so far which is why he's not leading the tournament but a small improvement with the flatstick will see him fly over the weekend so the 24.023/1 on offer looks fair.
Over at the Shriners, my pre-event pick, Tom Kim, is yet to drop a shot and he was matched at a low of 3.412/5 when he reached 10-under-par for the tournament after just nine holes of his second round but that was as good as it got for the young Korean. He parred his way in after that and he now trails Chile's Mito Pereira by two.
Pereira heads what's a very open market and he looks a fair price at 6/1 given nine of the last 15 winners have been in front after 36 holes.
The last three winners were all in front at this stage and I'm more than happy to get the Chilean onside at 7.06/1 when he's no bigger than 5/1 on the High Street.
Pereira is yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he came very close at the US PGA Championship in May, when he was matched at a low of 1.271/4 before he drove into a stream on the 72nd hole.
Understandably, it's taken him a bit of time to recover from such a finish, but the 27-year-old has won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour and it's a matter of when not if he wins on the PGA Tour.
13:25 - October 7, 2022
As is so often the case at this event, darkness fell before the first round of the Shriners Children's Open could be completed but that didn't affect most of the leaders.
Tom Hoge leads after he shot an eight-under-par 63 yesterday morning and nobody that started in the afternoon bettered six-under.
The defending champ, Sungjae Im, heads the market after finishing his first round with three straight birdies to tie the best round from the afternoon (a six-under-par 65) and he'll be kicking his second round off shortly.
I'll be back tomorrow morning with a detailed look at the halfway stage, but I have added one in running - Joel Dahmen.
Dahmen was one of numerous outsiders I looked at in the Find Me a 100 Winner column. He's been playing fabulously tee-to-green but putting poorly.
He continued to play some incredibly good golf yesterday and even holed one or two putts so after a five-under-par 66 in the afternoon, I was more than happy to add him at 95.094/1.
23:35 - October 6, 2022
Prior to the off, punters had to decide whether odds of around 5/2 were too short for the two-time winner of the Open de España, Jon Rahm, and after just one round the new conundrum is whether odds of around evens are fair when he doesn't even lead.
Ashun Wu, Darius Van Driel and Kiradech Aphibarnrat set the early running after the trio posted eight-under-par 63s but sitting in a tie for fourth, alongside Matthieu Pavon and Joakim Lagergren, Rahm is clearly the man to beat.
The world number six was matched at as low as 1.9520/21 after he played his first nine in five-under-par but we've been here before. He traded at a low of 1.645/8 after just eight holes last year, when bidding to win the title for a third time in-a-row, but he eventually finished 17th and I'd rather be a layer at the odds on offer at present.
Rahm won the Mexico Open wire-to-wire on the PGA Tour back in May but he's not absolutely bombproof when he gets off to a fast start.
This is the tenth time in his career that Rahm's opened with a round of 64 or better and on the nine previous occasions, he only went on to win twice.
He's led or been within a stroke of the lead 20 times previously and he's only gone on to win four times. And when he won in Mexico in May, he ended a run of nine defeats in-a-row when he'd led or been within just a stroke of the lead after round one.
Another factor to consider is how far back some of the winners have come from here. The two playoff protagonists last year both trailed by six in a tie for 21st and as highlighted in the preview, Ricardo Gonzalez, in 2003, and Richard Sterne a year later, both won the Open de Madrid at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid having sat outside the top-20 and trailing by six after the opening round.
All things considered, Rahm looks a bit too short to me so I'm happy to lay him modestly in the win market and I've put a lay in place in the Top-5 market at 1.251/4.
Open de España Pre-Event Selections:
Adri Arnaus @ 22.021/1
Thriston Lawrence @ 46.045/1
In-Play Trades:
Jon Rahm layed at 2.1211/10
Eddie Pepperell backed @ 24.023/1
Shriners Children's Open Pre-Event Selection:
Tom Kim @ 28.027/1
In-Play Picks:
Joel Dahmen @ 95.094/1
Mito Pereira @ 7.06/1
Back 2u Renato Paratore @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Garrick Higgo @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1u Chesson Hadley @ 250.0249/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
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