The Punter's In-Play Blog: Finau four clear in Houston

Finau impossible to oppose in Houston

Tony takes a four shot lead into round four

Finau looking to win his third title in seven starts

15:25 - November 12, 2022

The final round of the Houston Open has already started and the leaders tee off shortly but it's looking like a done deal anyway. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:15.

Tony Finau -15 1.162/13
Ben Taylor -11 16.531/2
Wyndham Clark -8 44.043/1
Justin Rose -8 44.043/1
Tyson Alexander -8 160.0159/1
-7 and 100.099/1 bar

The last two players to lead by four with a round to go both failed to convert - Scott Piercy at the 3M open in July and Chesson Hadley at the Palmetto Championship in June last year - but as Justin Ray points out below, they have an understandably strong record and nine of the previous ten all went on to win.

Having backed Finau after the opening round, I'm not laying anything off, even though he's very short and I'm confident he'll convert.

Having won the Puerto Rico Open back in 2016, it took Finau more than five years to win his second PGA Tour title and he messed up a number of chances before finally winning again at the Northern Trust last year but he's been a different animal in-contention this year and he looks a good thing to make it three wins in seven starts.

17:35 - November 12, 2022

Following weather disruptions at both the Nedbank Golf Challenge and the Houston Open, we're finally back on track in South Africa and Texas.

Having returned to Sun City to finish up round two early this morning, with the leaders having only played three holes of round two, after a long and grueling full day's play today, the pre-event second favourite, Thomas Detry, is tied at the top with Rasmus Hojgaard. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:10.

Thomas Detry -9 4.57/2
Rasmus Hojgaard -9 4.67/2
Branden Grace -8 6.611/2
Thriston Lawrence -8 9.617/2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -7 10.519/2
Luke Donald -7 44.043/1
Tommy Fleetwood -6 19.018/1
Ryan Fox -6 22.021/1
Shubhankar Sharma -6 65.064/1
-5 and

As highlighted in the preview, the last four Nedbank winners have trailed by six, three, three and six strokes with a round to go and this looks tough to call.

The front two can barely be separated in the market but my preference would be with the 21-year-old three time DP World Tour winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, although on the three occasions he led or been tied for the lead he's finished sixth, third and second.

Thomas Detry came into the event in fine form and after a 73 in round one, he's done remarkably well to hit the front but he's still in search of his first DP World Tour win. He's been tied for the lead after three rounds twice before on the DP World Tour, finishing fourth and second, although he did convert a four-stroke lead at the Bridgestone Challenge on the Challenge Tour back in 2016.

There's a trio of South Africans lurking and of the three, I like Thriston Lawrence the best, although the other two, Branden Grace and Christiaan Bezuidenhout, have both won at the Gary Player Country Club previously.

Grace, who now plies his trade on the LIV Tour, won this event in 2017 and Bez won the South African Open here in 2020.

The pre-event favourite and defending champion, Tommy Fleetwood, trails by only three strokes and he's trading quite a bit shorter than he was at this stage in 2019 when he won from six adrift, having been a 90.089/1 chance through 54 holes.

Fleetwood is poor in-contention, and he may even be a bit too close to the front to relax tomorrow so I'm happy to swerve him and Ryan Fox, who led after round one, is just missing too many fairways.

Having just about recovered from the disappointment of watching my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Guido Migliozzi, play himself out of the event with a ten at the par four 17th in round two, I'm happy to stick with Hojgaard, who I backed yesterday morning, but I wouldn't put anyone off taking a chance with one or two chasers from off the pace once the market settles.

There are seven players tied for tenth and just five off the lead any one of them could cut through the field and take the title.

Over at the Houston Open, Tony Finau was one of those drawn PM-AM that was able to get their second rounds completed before the hooter went off yesterday afternoon and that could prove to be hugely beneficial.

The world number 15 had finished his first round off in fine style on Thursday afternoon and he played even better yesterday, following Thursday's five-under-par 67 with a sensational 62.

Being able to sleep in and prepare for today's third round in a relaxed and leisurely fashion must be preferential to coming back to the course early to finish off your second and that side the draw has caught a break to the tune of 2.5 strokes. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back 17:15.

Tony Finau -13 1.784/5
Alex Noren -9 10.09/1
Patrick Rodgers -9 11.521/2
Tyson Alexander -8 80.079/1
Trey Mullinax -7 50.049/1
James Hahn -7 60.059/1
Carl Yuan -7 65.064/1
-6 and 50.049/1

As the third round is already in progress (the leaders tee off shortly), I haven't got time to have a detailed look at the current state of play but I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and see what round three brings anyway.

I'm obviously happy to have got Finau onside yesterday as he looks to be playing to the level that saw him secure back-to-back victories in July.

13:55 - November 11, 2022

As suspected, there'll be no more play in South Africa today.

12:20 - November 11, 2022

I was going to continue to sit on my hands at the Houston Open and see what today brings but I've changed my mind.

My sole pre-event pick, Joel Dahmen, started nicely enough with a three-under-par 67 to sit tied for 13th and my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Mackenzie Hughes, posted a four-under-par 66 to sit tied fifth and just one off the lead.

Their second rounds start soon, at 13:24 UK time, and there'll be alongside the new tournament favourite and co-leader, Tony Finau, who I've added to the portfolio at 6.05/1.

Finau was generally a 5.59/2 chance after he drained this monster at the ninth to close out his first round but he's been drifting all morning and I thought he was just a fraction too big at 6.05/1.

Finau is highly unlikely to make any more monsters today (also holed from 59 feet at the second!) but the early starters today may just catch a break and I want him onside.

The forecast suggests wind and rain will build as the day wares on and those drawn PM-AM may get the better of it.

Over on the DP World Tour, the Nedbank Championship has been suspended due to thunder and lightning with the leaders having played just three holes.

Rasmus Hojgaard has played six holes of his second round, and he's birdied three of them to get to within two of the lead. And so well did he hit the ball this morning that he should have been even further under-par. He missed very makeable birdie putts on two and five.

In contrast, although he's only played three holes, the leader, Ryan Fox, has been all over the place off the tee and he'll be glad of the pause in play.

There's obviously a chance that Rasmus returns to the course in a very different mindset and that he doesn't play anywhere near as nicely but I'm happy to play him at 8.07/1 for small stakes.

We're yet to get an announcement about the resumption of play so it's just a case of wait and see for now.

16:45 - November 10, 2022

Round one of the Nedbank Golf Challenge, which I previewed here, is all done and dusted, and we have a somewhat surprising leader after the first half of the day's action...

According to the guys on Sky Sports today, the Gary Player Country Club is not one of Ryan Fox's favourite tracks and the fact that he'd never broken 70 there in three previous visits certainly suggests they weren't making it up.

His best finish in the Nedbank Challenge in three attempts is 50th place and after eight holes today, there wasn't much happening to suggest he was about to turn that all around.

The pre-event 27.026/1 chance, who drifted out to a high of 38.037/1 in running, birdied the par five second but followed it with a bogey at three and when he stood on the par five ninth tee, he looked all set for an ordinary performance on day one.

The leaders weren't getting away, but on level par for the day, Fox didn't really look like troubling them until three birdies in-a-row from the ninth kicked started his tournament.

A par at the tricky 12th was followed by another birdie at 13 before this spectacular eagle at 15 saw him hit the front and he didn't look back after that, eventually posting a sensational eight-under-par 64 after back-to-back birdies at 17 and 18.

Fox wasn't the only player to light it up on day one.

The Ryder Cup captain, Luke Donald, rolled back the years to fire a brilliant bogey-free seven-under-par 65 to make a mockery of his pre-event price of 500.0499/1 and my Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Guido Migliozzi, will join them in tomorrow's final three-ball after a bogey-free five-under-par 67. Here's the first-round leaderboard with prices to back at 16:40.

Ryan Fox -8 3.3512/5
Luke Donald -7 21.020/1
Guido Migliozzi -5 21.020/1
Min Woo Lee -4 12.011/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -4 26.025/1
Richard Bland -4 46.045/1
-3 and 16.015/1 bar

With a win here, Fox can go to the top of the Race to Dubai Standings ahead of next week's final event of the season - the DP World Tour Championship - and that's one of the reason's I'm happy to leave him alone.

Given his previous at the track, there's a strong chance that today's brilliance was something of a purple patch and now he's in front, he might get ahead of himself and start thinking about the riches on offer heading into next week.

This is the 11th time Fox has led or co-led after round one in his career and he has a 20% strike rate so far.

He won both the Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge on the Challenge Tour back in 2015 and the Ras al Khaimah Classic in February wire-to-wire but since that victory he's led twice on the DP World Tour - at the British Masters and the Irish Open - and he's finished eighth and second.

He was also very disappointing last time out in Mallorca when he shot 74 on Sunday to finish fourth having been tied for the lead with a round to go.

Add in the fact that the last six men to hold a clear lead after round one at the Nedbank have all been beaten and Fox starts to look a bit short.

Over at the Houston Open, which I've previewed here, the morning wave are getting close to the house and the pre-event favourites are really struggling.

Scottie Scheffler, who traded at odds-on in the event 12 months ago, is over-par, and Sam Burns, who led the event after rounds two and three two years ago, looks badly out of sorts and having been matched at as low as 13.525/2 before the off, he's already been matched at 880.0879/1!

Nedbank Golf Challenge Pre-Event Selections:
George Coetzee @ 55.054/1
Ewen Ferguson @ 95.094/1

In-Play Bet:
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 8.07/1

Houston Open Pre-Event Selection:
Joel Dahmen @ 65.064/1

In-Play Pick:
Tony Finau @ 6.05/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2u Guido Migliozzi @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 &10u @ 2.35/4
1u Oliver Wilson @ 360.0359/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
2u Mackenzie Hughes @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4