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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rahm in pole position in Mexico

Steven Rawlings
01 May 2022

Jon Rahm in action in Mexico on Thursday

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Jon Rahm has maintained his lead in Mexico but is he too short to convert at 1.68? Steve looks back on his recent record in-contention here...

"All things considered, there’s enough evidence to suggest Rahm’s a bit on the short side and he’s definitely too short for my liking."

13:05 - May 1, 2022

World number two, Jon Rahm, has led the Mexico Open at Vidanta throughout and he'll take a two-stroke lead into today's fourth and final round. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 13:00.

Jon Rahm -15 1.684/6
Cameron Champ -13 8.615/2
Kurt Kitayama -13 14.013/1
Davis Riley -12 18.5
Patrick Rodgers -12 23.022/1
Nate Lashley -12 24.023/1
Alex Smalley -11 42.041/1
-10 and 70.069/1 bar

My 240.0239/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Kurt Kitayama, was matched at a low of 7.413/2 after a brilliant start to his third round but after a five-under-par front-nine, he shot level on the back nine, and my 60.059/1 pre-event pick, Cameron Champ, was matched at a low of 2.962/1 when he led by a couple of strokes on the back-nine, but he too finished poorly, recording back-to-back bogeys at 15 and 16.

Neither Kitayama nor Champ managed to birdie the par five 18th so when Rahm drained his 12-foot birdie at the last, he ended the day as he'd started it - two shots clear of the field.

Rahm's clearly the man to beat now but with Kitayama, Champ, and Davis Riley (backed before the off at 70.069/1) all hot on his heels, I'm obviously hoping Rahm's scoring pattern continues. So far this week he's shot rounds of 64, 66 and 68. A one-under-par 70 today, may just open the door.

As Justin Ray's tweet below demonstrates, two-stroke leaders don't have the greatest of records of late on the PGA Tour and Rahm hasn't been bombproof in-contention lately either.

Jon Rahm carries a 2-shot lead into the final round of the Mexico Open.

Since 2010, players who lead by 2 through 54 holes on the PGA Tour go on to win 38.1% of the time. Just 2 of the last 14 to lead by 2 shots went on to win.
? Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 30, 2022

He came from behind to win the US Open last summer (his sole success in 2021), there are several recent examples of him underperforming with the lead, and he's only once converted a 54-hole lead or co-lead on the PGA Tour. He won the Memorial Tournament in 2020, having led by four after three rounds.

He began the final round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions tied for the lead with Cameron Smith and five clear of the remainder back in January but having been matched at a low of 1.51/2 in-running, he eventually finished second and he was matched at odds-on at the Farmers Insurance Open at the end of January when he led at halfway before finishing tied for third.

On the last occasion he held a clear lead with a round to go on the PGA Tour, at The Northern Trust last August, he finished third, and he fell from first to 12th at the Players Championship in the fourth round back in 2019.

In addition to those efforts, he also failed from the front at both the BMW Championship in 2019 and the Farmers Insurance Open in 2020 and although he was only beaten by a stroke that day, the final leaderboard was a bit misleading.

He was four-over-par through five holes and he only finished second courtesy of three straight birdies to finish when the race was already run and although he won the title, he showed his occasional fragility when he got himself in a bit of a pickle at the DP World Tour Championship in 2019...

With co-54-hole leader, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, flapping, Rahm started the fourth round really well to establish a six-stroke lead after just seven holes. He was matched at just 1.031/33 as it looked like he'd win with ease, but he played the next eight holes in two-over par and in the end, he needed to birdie the last to win by just one!

All things considered, there's enough evidence to suggest Rahm's a bit on the short side and he's definitely too short for my liking so I'm going to go into round four with my fingers and toes crossed that one of my three can capitalise should the world number two underperform in-the-mix again.

09:30 - May 1, 2022

Having made birdies at two and seven, South Africa's Oliver Bekker bogeyed the tough par four ninth in yesterday morning's third round of the Catalunya Championship, but he bounced back brilliantly after the dropped shot, birdying 10 and 12 before recording an eagle three at the 15th and he takes a two-stroke lead into today's fourth and final round. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:20.

Oliver Bekker -11 2.6213/8
Laurie Canter -9 5.04/1
Edoardo Molinari -8 13.012/1
Lorenzo Gagli -8 19.018/1
Adrian Meronk -7 13.5
Ryan Fox -7 15.014/1
Bernd Wiesberger -6 22.021/1
Pablo Larrazabal -6 25.024/1
Jeff Winther -6 60.059/1
Ivan Cantero Gutierrez -6 130.0129/1
Richard McEvoy -6 150.0149/1
-5 and 100.099/1 bar

Since 1996, 180 players have led a 72-hole DP World Tour event and 81 of them went on to win. That's a strike rate of 45%, suggesting Bekker is a fair price at around 6/4 but I'm in no rush to side with the 37 year-old Pretorian.

Bekker has won seven times on the Sunshine Tour but he hasn't tasted victory anywhere in five years so I'm happy to look for alternatives and the one I like is Bernd Wiesberger at odds in excess of 20/1.

Bernd Wiesberger at Wentworth.jpg

Trailing Bekker by five, the Austrian has plenty on his plate but if the leader does wobble and his nearest challenger, Laurie Canter, also wilts in the heat of battle, the tournament will be blown wide-open and the likes of Wiesberger and the already backed, Pablo Larrazabal, have the wherewithal to capitalise.

I'm happy to take a small chance on Wiesberger at 22.021/1 and I'll be back shortly with a look at the Mexico Open at Vidanta shortly.

10:15 - April 30, 2022

Jon Rahm backed up Thursday morning's seven-under-par 64 at the Mexico Open at Vidanta with an impressive 66 in the trickier afternoon conditions yesterday and he's most certainly the man to beat now with a two-stroke lead. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:05.

Jon Rahm -12 1.9210/11
Alex Smalley -10 16.015/1
Patrick Reed -9 16.015/1
Cameron Champ -9 17.5
Adam Long -9 24.023/1
Trey Mullinax -9 42.041/1
Andrew Novak -9 46.045/1
Brandon Hagy -9 48.047/1
-8 and 38.037/1 bar

The wind didn't pick up quite as much yesterday afternoon as it did on Thursday and those drawn AM-PM over the first two days enjoyed an advantage of 1.52 strokes.

Adam Long and Andrew Novak are within three of Rahm, having been drawn on the wrong side, but six of the top-eight began the tournament on Thursday morning, and the one they all have to beat is Rahm.

The world number two hasn't tasted success since last year's US Open so he's due one.

With his second son on the way, life is good for the 27-year-old Spaniard off the course and a relaxed and simplistic victory looks to be on the cards but remarkably, Rahm's yet to convert a 36-hole lead on any Tour.

Rahm's been tied for the lead five times in total (twice on the PGA Tour, twice on the DP World Tour, and once at the US Masters) and he's finished third, second, seventh, seventh and third, and he's zero form three when he's held a clear advantage.

The Spaniard finished only fourth at the 2017 Dell Technologies (beaten by five), having led by two at this stage and he finished third at The Northern Trust last year, having held a one stroke lead at halfway, but he caught a terrible break on the only other occasion he's held a clear lead on the PGA Tour.

Rahm stretched his two-stroke 36-hole advantage to six in round three at the Memorial Tournament last June but was forced to withdraw when he tested positive for Covid.

This looks like a tremendous opportunity for Rahm to finally kick on and collect from the front at halfway but those stats are off putting and so too is the fact that only 23% of two-stroke 36-hole leaders have gone on to win in the last 15 years.

All things considered, I can certainly leave Rahm alone at odds-on and if I was around this evening I'd look to take him on but with both pre-event picks, Cameron Champ and Davis Riley, in-the-mix, as well as my Find me a 100 Winner pick, Kurt Kitayama (Riley and Kitayama are both on -8), I'm going to leave the event alone for now.

The third round of the Catalunya Championship is well underway after the early start so they'll be done and dusted shortly after lunch today but I'm off to the Leeds v Manchester City game (previewed here) this afternoon, so I won't get a chance to update the blog again before tomorrow.

19:40 - April 29, 2022

With poor weather forecasted for tomorrow afternoon in Girona, the tee times for round three of the Catalunya Championship have been moved forward and play will start at 10:00am local time (8:00am UK time).

Sky have also moved their scheduling forward and the live coverage starts at 9:00 UK time. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:30.

Laurie Canter -7 5.59/2
Oliver Bekker -6 8.07/1
James Morrison -6 16.015/1
Ryan Fox -5 11.010/1
Daniel Gavins -5 21.020/1
Adrien Saddier -5 24.023/1
Ivan Cantero Gutierrez -5 100.099/1
Thomas Bjorn -5 110.0109/1
-4 and 25.024/1 bar

On the last occasion that the DP World Tour visited the Stadium Course at Catalunya, in 2014, the eventual winner of the Open de Espana, Miguel Angel Jimenez, beat Richard Green and the halfway leader, Thomas Pieters, in a playoff and both he and Green came from off the pace. Miguel had trailed by four at halfway in a tie for eighth and Green had been five back in 10th, but that's as far back as any of the four winners have trailed by here.

Thomas Bjorn, who's back in-contention this week for the first time in a very long time, won the Sarazen World Open in 1999, having sat second and two off the lead at this stage, Brian Davis won the Open de Espana a year later, having sat fifth and three off the lead and Thomas Levet won that title here in 2009 having led by two through 36 holes. Bjorn, Davis and Levet all led after round three and Jimenez sat second, trailing by two.

I'm not in the least bit surprised to see Laurie Canter in-contention here. He has a couple of Q-School top-20 finishes at the venue and he came close to winning at two of the tracks that I highlighted as decent corelating courses in the preview - Valderrama and Wentworth - but therein lies the issue with the 32-year-old Englishman.

laurie canter.jpg

He traded at 1.511/2 at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth last September before coming up short and a month later when he was matched at a low of 1.75/7 as he blew a three-stroke 54-hole lead in the Andalucía Masters at Valderrama. He should eventually get across the line on the DP World Tour, but he was expensive to follow in-contention way before those two latest examples and he's short enough with so much golf still to play.

The presence of James Morrison is a bit frustrating. He often pops up and contends in Spain and he was a juicy price before the off but I'm happy to leave him out now. He made a number of long par saving putts today to keep in the hunt.

With as many as 25 players within five strokes of the lead heading into the weekend this is a really tough tournament to untangle but I'm happy to chance last week's winner - Pablo Larrazabal.

Pablo was poor yesterday be he celebrated his seventh DP World Tour title and his first in Spain in style after Sunday's victory in Tarragona so a slow start wasn't unexpected. He played much better today and although he too relied on the putter on several occasions, his bogey-free three-under-par 69 was a great knock.

25/1 with five places available looks more than fair for Pablo Larrazabal with @Betfair . Played very nicely today and hangover following last week's latest win now cleared. Only four back at halfway.
? Steve Rawlings (@SteveThePunter) April 29, 2022

It's fantastic to see Thomas Bjorn bang in contention again and he's a tempting price at 100.099/1 odd. The last time the DP World Tour pitched up here, in 2014, Jimenez broke his own record for being the oldest winner on the Tour (50 years and 133 days) for a second time. It would be some story of Bjorn at the age of 51 broke it!

I'll be back in the morning with a look at the Mexico Open once they've reached the halfway stage.

08:35 - April 29, 2022

There was a scoring differential of just 0.54 strokes between the AM and PM starters at the Catalunya Championship yesterday on the DP World Tour and two of the three first round leaders, Jeff Winther and Darren Fichardt, began in the afternoon.

Oliver Bekker, who also fired a six-under-par opening 66, posted his round in the morning and he'll be teeing it up this afternoon in round two, after the wind has picked up fractionally.

As highlighted in In-Play Tactics section of the preview, what little evidence we have suggests we should probably be concentrating on the early leaders so I'm more than happy to kick things off with a small play on Winther.

The 38-year-old Dane has only ever led or co-led a stroke play event once before after the opening round on the DP World Tour and that ended nicely.

He led the Mallorca Open by a stroke after round one in October before going on to win what, to date, is his only DP World Tour title, so he'll have positive vibes about showing the way in Spain.

Winther is a best price of 14/1 on the High Street this morning so I was more than happy to take 19.5 on the exchange.

Over at the Mexico Open at Vidanta on the PGA Tour, the draw bias was far more pronounced with the morning starters averaging 69.18 compared to 71.39 shot by their afternoon counterparts.

With it's wide-open fairways, which the pre-event favourite, Jon Rahm, compared to Kapalua in Hawaii in his post-round interview, the scoring was very good before the wind picked up in the afternoon.

Rahm was one of six players to open the tournament with a seven-under-par 64 to share the early lead, but he holed a lot of footage on the greens, including this eagle two at the seventh hole, and he might be worth taking on today.

Taking advantage of the drivable 7th.

Nothing to it, @JonRahmPGA pic.twitter.com/aFUQzYCtye
? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 28, 2022

Rahm has led or co-led after round one on the PGA Tour eight times previously and he's only gone on to win once, producing finishing positions that read 3-3-1-5-7-3-9-2.

And as Justin Ray highlights below, he's only one form eight when beginning an event with a 64 or better.

This is the 9th time Jon Rahm has opened a PGA Tour event with 64 or lower. He went on to win 1 of the previous 8 instances (2018 CareerBuilder Challenge).
? Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 28, 2022

I definitely don't want to back him at around 2/1 given it won't be easy this afternoon and I'm happy to lay him at around 1.558/15 in the Top 5 Finish market.

The weather forecast suggested only a slight increase of wind yesterday and the same is predicted today but the course is so exposed and so close to the coast that the conditions were very different yesterday and of the top-20 after round one, only three teed it in the afternoon.

One of the three was one of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks, Kurt Kitayama, who's tied for the lead after round one so it's going to be a big day for him today. If he can back up his opening 64 with anything close to that he'll be bang in contention going into the weekend if the conditions today are similar to yesterday.

Given he went off at around 25.024/1, I'm happy to have a small bet on Gary Woodland at 27.026/1 this morning. Having been extremely well-backed before the off, I thought he was a fraction short but after his four-under-par 67 yesterday afternoon, if the draw bias is similar today, and he performs to the same level, once the stagger unwinds, that price might look generous.

I'll be back later today or tomorrow morning once we've reached the halfway stage of both events.

Catalunya Championship Pre-event Selections:
Adrian Otaegui @ 32.031/1
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 46.045/1

In-Play Picks:
Jeff Winther @ 19.5
Pablo Larrazabal each-way @ 25/1

Mexico Open Pre-event Selections:
Cameron Champ @ 60.059/1
Davis Riley @ 70.069/1

In-Play Pick:
Gary Woodland @ 27.026/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 pts Aaron Cockerill @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2 pts Peter Uihlein @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1 pt Kurt Kitayama @ 240.0239/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1