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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Hot Horschel impossible to oppose

Steven Rawlings
04 June 2022

Billy Horschel in action in round three

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Billy Horschel has cruised five clear of the field at the Memorial Tournament but is he a fair price to convert?

"All things considered, 1.558/15 about the leader is an excellent price for those that don’t mind backing a long odds-on shot."

10:30 - June 5, 2022

A quite brilliant bogey-free seven-under-par 65 around Muirfield Village has seen pre-event 90.089/1 chance, Billy Horschel, move five strokes clear of the field with a round top go at the Memorial Tournament. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:25.

Billy Horschel -13 1.558/15
Cameron Smith -8 8.88/1
Aaron Wise -8 18.5
Daniel Berger -7 30.029/1
Jhonattan Vegas -7 50.049/1
Francesco Molinari -7 55.054/1
Patrick Cantlay -6 32.031/1
Joaquin Niemann -6 50.049/1
Davis Riley -6 60.059/1
-6 and 95.094/1 bar

Daniel Berger, who's currently tied for third, will enter today's final round knowing that there's a chance Billy Horschel comes back to the field.

Berger led the Honda Classic by five with a round to go back in February but after a 74 on Sunday he finished the week in fourth place. The previous nine players to lead by five on the PGA Tour had all gone on to win though and since 1996, 25 of the 30 players to hold a five-shot lead with a round to go have won. That's a strike-rate of 83%.

This is the fifth time that Horschel has led or co-led with with a round to go and he has a 50% strike-rate.

He finished second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational a week after Berger's defeat at the Honda, having been tied for the lead with a round to go, and he finished third at the Texas Open back in 2013 having led by two but he converted from the front at both the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship back in 2014.

If Horschel is to mess up, course specialist, Patrick Cantlay, is a plausible alternative at a nice price but all things considered, 1.558/15 about the leader is an excellent price for those that don't mind backing a long odds-on shot.

19:35 - June 4, 2022

Last week's Dutch Open winner, Victor Perez, began the third round of the Porsche European Open trailing by two but after a birdie at the opening hole, he was in front after his tee-shot on the par three second found the bottom of the cup.

First ace on Tour for @v_perez2 #PEO2022 pic.twitter.com/rQMAIhZWE7
? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) June 4, 2022

Perez followed the hole-in-one with a bogey at five and a birdie at nine and when he turned for home leading by three strokes, he was matched at a low of 2.0811/10 but it all got a bit scruffy after that and he eventually needed a lengthy par save on the 18th to take a lead into tomorrow's fourth and final round. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:30.

Victor Perez -5 3.3512/5
Julien Brun -4 5.95/1
Joakim Lagergren -4 10.519/2
Haotong Li -3 9.89/1
Will Besseling -3 11.010/1
Justin Walters -2 25.024/1
Jordan Smith -1 21.020/1
Richard Mansell -1 34.033/1
Niklas Norgaard Moller -1 60.059/1
Daan Huizing -1 100.099/1
Tommy Fleetwood Par 28.027/1
Par and 80.079/1 bar

The Nord Course at Green Eagle is very long and it's producing something of a grind of a tournament. Saturdays are nicknamed 'Moving Day' as it's often the day we witness plenty of change on the leaderboard ahead of Sunday's final round but today was just a monotonous slog with only two players - Justin Walters and Tommy Fleetwood - breaking 70. They both shot three-under-par 69s.

Looking at the four events staged here previously that were played over four rounds (the ECCO Tour Championship on the Challenge Tour in 2010 and three editions of this event) nobody has won from off the pace.

Casey won from third and a stroke back in 2019 and the other three were leading or tied for the lead but last year's renewal was reduced to a 54-hole event over three days after the UK had been put on Germany's Covid 'red list' and Marcus Armitage won having sat tied for 11th and four of the lead after round two. And I can see someone winning from off the pace again this year.

Now leading, the in-form, Perez, is definitely the most likely winner and I'm glad I got him onside before round three, but he looked a bit laboured on the back-nine today and he might just be vulnerable.

The pre-tournament favourite, Tommy Fleetwood, will be favoured by coming from off the pace and he's worth a small play. He lost a playoff at the Shenzhen International in 2017 having trailed by eight with a round to go, he won the Nedbank from six back through 54 holes in 2019 and he shot 63 in the final round of the 2018 US Open to finish second from six back.

08:00 - June 4, 2022

We've reached the halfway stage of both the Porsche European Open and the Memorial Tournament. Here are the two leaderboards with prices to back at 7:50.

Jordan Smith -6 3.259/4
Victor Perez -4 7.26/1
Julien Brun -3 16.5
Niklas Norgaard Moller -3 28.027/1
Joakim Lagergren -3 42.041/1
Haotong Li -2 25.024/1
Julien Guerrier -2 40.039/1
Rasmas Hojgaard -1 20.019/1
Marcus Armitage 30.029/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -1 36.035/1
-1 and 40.039/1 bar

Cameron Smith -8 4.47/2
K.H Lee -7 16.5
Denny McCarthy -7 23.022/1
Cameron Young -6 12.011/1
Davis Riley -6 15.014/1
Billy Horschel -6 17.016/1
Luke List -6 29.028/1
Jhonattan Vegas -6 32.031/1
Rory McIlroy -5 9.89/1
-5 and 30.029/1 bar

Halfway leader, Jordan Smith, is bidding to win the Porsche European Open around the Porsche Nord Course at Green Eagle for a second time, having beaten Alex Levy in a playoff back in 2017 but I'm happy to take him on.

That's Smith's sole success to date and last week's winner, Victor Perez, looks the value at halfway.

Smith trailed by two strokes at halfway when he won here five years ago and Perez looks nicely poised in the Englishman's slipstream this time around.

Perez putted incredibly well on Sunday last week to cruelly deny Ryan Fox and his putter is yet to warm up in Germany given he ranks 32nd for Putting Average and 68th for Strokes Gained Putting.

Perez owes his lofty position to his accurate driving, neat iron play and his scrambling skills so if he can maintain his form from tee-to-green and start holing a few putts, Smith could be in trouble.

Playing with the confidence of last week's victory, the Frenchman is a very fair price at anything over 6/1 and I'm happy to get him onside.

Over at the Memorial Tournament, it's a little frustrating to see Cameron Smith on top of the pile.

I really fancied his chances in the US PGA Championship last time out where he ranked first for Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and on Approach but the thing he's most renowned for, his putting, let him down.

Smith lost nearly four strokes to the field and he ranked 76th for SG Putting at Southern Hills but the wand's working again at Muirfield Village and he's the man to beat at halfway.

Looking back at previous renewals, we've seen four winners come from off the pace at halfway this century but only one in the last 12 years.

Jim Furyk and K.J Choi both trailed by seven strokes in 2002 and 2007 and Tiger Woods was six back at tied for 24th in 2009 but the only off the pace winner since was Willian McGirt in 2016, who trailed by six in a tie for 22nd.

Kevin Na was beaten in a playoff in 2014, having trailed by nine at halfway but those four named are the only winners since this century that can be described as having won from off the pace.

The late Bart Bryant is the only other winner not to be inside the top-five place at halfway but he was only seventh and two off the lead and other than Hideki Matsuyama, who sat fourth and five strokes adrift, every other winner has been within three of the lead at this stage.

Smith is most definitely the man to beat but I'm just happy to swerve him.

At odds in excess of 3/1 I was tempted to get him onside. He's already won both the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Players Championship in impressive fashion this year and a third title would be far from a surprise but his tee-to-green game is a slight worry.

At the halfway stage, Smith ranks 95th for Driving Accuracy and 76th for Greens in regulation and he knows that needs to improve.

"I think I'm just happy with the way I stuck in there," Smith said after round three. "Really happy with where my short game's at. I feel like I'm rolling the ball really good. Just need to sort out that longer stuff."

The market considers Rory McIlroy as the most likely winner should Smith fail to kick on but from tied ninth and three back, McIlroy has plenty on his plate and the dangers to them both are plentiful.

It's only a matter of time before the likes of Cameron Young and Davis Riley break through and from five and six strokes back, course specialists, Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm, are still dangerous.

I'm going to wait and see what today brings but I have had a very small bet on Shane Lowry at 44.043/1. He shot a disappointing level par 72 yesterday morning and he trails by five in a tie for 17th but he's another that's more than capable of going in the right direction on Moving Day and I thought that was a fair price given he's 33/1 chance on the High Street.

09:00 - June 3, 2022

The second round of the Porsche European Open is underway where China's Haotong Li just heads the market after an opening five-under-par 67 yesterday morning.

In all likelihood, Li will have lost his early lead by the time he tees off this afternoon (tied with pre-event 610.0609/1 shot, Joakim Lagergren after round one) and it will be interesting to see how he fares.

He began last week's Dutch Open nicely but after sitting solo second at halfway he lost his way over the weekend to finish tied for 37th!

I'm in no rush to get involved in Germany and I'm also happy to sit on my hands at the Memorial Tournament where as many as six players are tied for the lead after round one.

My solo selection before the off, Jon Rahm, played in the afternoon and he was a bit disappointing, finding water a couple of times on his way to shooting a level-par 72.

Rahm went from being under-par for the day to over-par with a double-bogey at the par five 11th but he looked like he'd bounced back nicely with birdies at 12, 14 and 15 and I went to bed early, happy that he'd put himself nicely in the picture, only to wake up this morning to see he bogeyed 17 and 18 and he looks up against it now.

William McGirt won the Memorial Tournament having trailed by six in a tie for 44th after round one in 2016 and Hideki Matsuyama trailed by seven after round one before winning the 2014 edition but looking all the way back to 1996, every winner has shot an under-par round on day one.

Playing alongside Rahm, Shane Lowry caught the eye on the back-nine, shooting an impeccable four-under-par 32 to get to -3 for the tournament and as a winner at Firestone, a course I highlighted as one that correlates nicely with Muirfield Village in the preview, he was on the radar before the off, but I'm happy to hang fire for now and see what today brings.

Cameron Smith had some very ordinary form at Muirfield reading MC-65-MC-MC-68-MC prior to this week but playing in the easier morning conditions, he's one of those tied for the lead after day one and he's the only man trading at a single-figure price this morning.

Porsche European Open Pre-Event Selections:
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 29.028/1
Pablo Larrazabal @ [42.0]

In-Play Picks:
Victor Perez @ 7.613/2
Tommy Fleetwood @ 30.029/1

Memorial Tournament Pre-Event Selections:
Jon Rahm @ 12.5

In-Play Pick:
Shane Lowry @ 44.043/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 pts Guido Migliozzi @ 100.099/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2 pt Anirban Lahiri @ 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1pt Kurt Kitayama @ 580.0579/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1 pt Nate Lashley @ 650.0649/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1