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Memorial Tournament: Worthy favourite Rahm to produce more Muirfield magic

Steven Rawlings
31 May 2022
5 min read

Jon Rahm - fancied to contend again at Muirfield

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The PGA Tour moves on to Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament and our man's back with his comprehensive preview...

"Rahm has developed a habit of winning the same event and at the same course throughout his career and compensation for last year’s cruel withdrawal is a distinct possibility."

Tournament History

First staged in 1976, the Memorial Tournament is an invitational event with only the top-75 on the previous PGA Tour season's money list guaranteed a place in the line-up.

The brainchild of 18-time major winner, Jack Nicklaus, the Memorial Tournament always attracts a seller field of 120 players and this will be the 47th edition.

Venue

Muirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin Ohio.

Course Details

Par 72, 7,533 yards
Stroke Index in 2021 - 72.75

Named after his favourite Open Championship venue and set in 240 rolling, wooded acres, Jack Nicklaus designed Muirfield Village himself and he very often tinkers with it. He did so in 2020, before the course hosted back-to-back PGA Tour events, with the Workday Charity Open preceding this event, and he made more changes again before last year's edition.

Over the last year, my @NicklausCo team and I made some major changes and slight tweaks on nearly every hole at Muirfield Village. I've outlined them all in this video. @memorialgolf pic.twitter.com/kePehQrLuT
? Jack Nicklaus (@jacknicklaus) May 31, 2021

Muirfield was built in 1974 on land acquired eight years earlier and it's a strong but fair test. The fairways are fairly generous but the rough, consisting of a blend of Kentucky bluegrass, fescue and rye, is usually pretty penal and it always strikes me how lush the whole place looks.

In addition to the Memorial Tournament, Muirfield also hosted the 1987 Ryder Cup, the 1998 Solheim Cup, the Presidents Cup in 2013 and as already mentioned, the once-only staged, Workday Charity Open in 2020.

Water comes into play on 11 holes and the smaller than average bentgrass greens are undulating and usually set at around 13 on the Stimpmeter.

Having all been replaced last year, they only ran at around 12 but now bedded in, they may well be speedy again.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting with Red Button coverage from 12:00 on Thursday before the full coverage begins at 17:00

Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2021 - Patrick Cantlay -13 (playoff) 25.024/1
2020 - Jon Rahm -9 25.024/1
2019 - Patrick Cantlay -19 19.018/1
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau -15 (playoff) 48.047/1
2017 - Jason Dufner -13 90.089/1
2016 - William McGirt -15 (playoff) 360.0359/1
2015 - David Lingmerth -15 (playoff) 640.0639/1

What Will it Take to Win the Memorial Tournament?

Patrick Cantlay has ranked fourth and eighth for Driving Distance when winning here but length off the tee isn't as advantageous as it once was around Muirfield.

The four men behind Cantlay last year ranked 44th, 15th, 33rd and 35th and the highest any of the top-seven ranked for DD in this event in 2020 was 21st but three of the top-five ranked inside the top-five for Driving Accuracy. And it was a similar story the week before in the Workday Open two years ago with five of the top-six ranking higher for DA than they did for Driving Distance.

Martin Kaymer traded at a low of 1.422/5 in 2019, before eventually finishing third, and he only ranked 51st for DD. Kyle Stanley was beaten in the playoff four years ago, having ranked only 57th for DD and the first and second four years ago, Jason Dufner and Anirban Lahiri, ranked only 28th and 35th for Driving Distance.

The two playoff protagonists six years ago, William McGirt and Jon Curran, ranked 50th and 68th and in 2015. Three of the top-five and ties, including the winner, David Lingmerth, ranked in the 60s for DD.

I'd favour accuracy over distance off the tee but the best stat to look at is Strokes Gained Tee to Green. The last five Memorial winners have ranked first, first, second, 12th and first for STGT2G.

The last three course winners, Morikawa, Rahm and Cantlay have ranked sixth, third and first for Greens In Regulation. The 2012 and 2013 winners, Tiger Woods and Matt Kuchar, also both ranked first for GIR, as did the 2017 winner, Jason Dufner.

Byeong Hun An also ranked first for GIR when beaten in extra-time four years ago and Cantlay ranked 11th when he won the event for the first time in 2019 but Adam Scott, who finished second, ranked second for GIR. The 2016 winner, William McGirt ranked seventh for GIR and the two players who ranked first and second for GIR seven years ago, Francesco Molinari and Jim Furyk, both finished inside the top-five. The average GIR ranking of the last 13 course winners is just 9.38.

Cantlay wins memorial again.jpg

Morikawa only ranked 31st for Scrambling in the Workday in 2020 but that's been a key stat. Justin Thomas, who was beaten by Morikawa in extra time, ranked second, the top-five in this event last year ranked sixth, second, 19th, third and first for Scrambling. The first three home in this event in 2020 ranked one, two and three for Scrambling.

After his 2020 success, Rahm highlighted just how good his short game had been.

"One of the best performances of my life, yesterday (Saturday) was probably one of the best rounds of my life and I finished today with some clutch up-and-downs. And as a Spaniard, I'm kind of glad it happened that way. Every shot counts, and I tried every shot and got those two last up-and-downs, as a true Spaniard would.

"My short game has been unbelievable all week. It's been so good, and I've gotten close to chipping in a couple times. You always hear about people saying champions make it happen, and at that point I made it happen."

In 2019, the first second and third ranked fifth, sixth and seventh for Scrambling and the two best scramblers, Jordan Spieth and Marc Leishman, finished seventh and fifth. And Bryson DeChambeau topped the Scrambling stats when he won here four years ago.

The two course winners in 2020 only ranked 11th and fourth for Par 4 Scoring but Cantlay ranked first last year and 11 of the last 16 Memorial winners have ranked first or second for Par 4 Scoring. That wouldn't be unusual on a par 70 track, with only two par fives, but given Muirfield is a par 72 with four, it's a stat to consider closely this week.

Although four of the last eight Memorial winners have had a Putting Average ranking of seventh or better, this is one of those rare venues where putting isn't the most important stat to consider. Players who aren't renowned for their flat-stick prowess have won or contended. Cantlay only ranked 20th last year and the first three home in this event in 2020 had Putting Average rankings of 17th, 32nd and 43rd. DeChambeau only ranked 27th when he won here four years ago and McGirt managed to win with a ranking of 55th!

Is There an Angle In?

The WGC-St Jude Invitational replaced the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in 2019 but a look back at the old leaderboards at Firestone should provide a few clues.

Tiger Woods has thrived at both venues, Hideki Matsuyama has won both events, Justin Rose has won here and finished runner-up at Firestone, the 2019 runner-up here, Adam Scott, has won at Firestone. Kyle Stanley and Zach Johnson have both finished second at both venues. Thomas is another Firestone winner to come close to winning here and a number of other players have played very well in both tournaments.

Firestone is also in Ohio but the form crosses over so well that it can't just be geographical - both venues clearly correlate nicely.

Is There an Identikit Memorial Winner?

Although the last three winners have been well-fancied, this has been a good event for outsiders and first-time winners over the years.

Bart Bryant in 2005 and Carl Pettersson in 2006 were big outsiders and the five winners before Cantlay broke his duck here in 2019 ranged from fairly tough to find to almost impossible.

DeChambeau's pre-event odds ranged between 95.094/1 and 46.045/1, Dufner was matched at 100.099/1 before the off but like the 2014 winner, Hideki Matsuyama, he went off at between 70.069/1 and 80.079/1, but the two in between that pair were huge outsiders, matched at more than 700.0699/1 before the get-go.

Tom Watson, Hale Irwin, Greg Norman, Jack Nicklaus and Patrick Cantlay have all won the tournament twice, Kenny Perry has won it three times and Tiger has claimed the title five times. Justin Rose came within a whisker of winning it a second time six years ago so past winners do well here.

Winner's Positions and Exchange Prices Pre-Round Four

2021 - Patrick Cantlay - tied for the lead 2.588/5
2020 - Jon Rahm led by four 1.341/3
2019 - Patrick Cantlay trailing by four 7.613/2
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau led by one 3.55/2
2017 - Jason Dufner trailing by four 11.521/2
2016 - William McGirt one of three tied for the lead 12.5
2015 - David Lingmerth trailing by three 20.019/1

In-Play Tactics

Jon Rahm was trading at 1.141/7 with a six-shot lead after three rounds last year before having to withdraw following a positive Covid test and that's far from the first time that there's been carnage in the market at Muirfield.

The Memorial Tournament has been a fantastic tournament to trade over the years and so too was the 2020 Workday Charity Open.

We've had six playoffs in the last nine events here now and taking on short-priced contenders is a great way to profit.

The 2020 Workday runner-up, Thomas, was matched at less than 1.11/10 on two separate occasions and he was matched at a low of 1.031/33 and Morikawa traded at a low of 1.51/2 in round four of this event last year.

It's very unusual not to see at least one player trade at long odds-on and get beat and this has been a great place to trade over the years.

Market Leaders

Having won the Mexico Open in his penultimate start, Jon Rahm finished a disappointing 48th from the wrong side of the draw last time out at the US PGA Championship. But he's a very worthy favourite here.

Rahm has developed a habit of winning the same event and at the same course throughout his career and compensation for last year's cruel withdrawal is a distinct possibility.

On the DP World Tour, the Spaniard has already won the Open de Espana, Irish Open and DP World Tour Championship twice and he's won both the Farmers Insurance Open and the US Open at Torrey Pines.

With current form figures reading 2-5-8, Rory McIlroy has to be respected but his Muirfield CV isn't spectacular. His form figures here read 10-5-MC-57-15-4-8-MC-32-18, although he has ended the first round in front here on two previous occasions, so he's a plausible back-to-lay vehicle once again and one to consider in the First Round Leader market.

Rory McIlroy on 17th at Southern Hills Day One.jpg

Course form stands up really well here so Patrick Cantlay commands respect with figures that read 35-4-11-7-32-1. But nobody has defended the title since Tiger Woods at the turn of the century, and he missed the cut in the US PGA Championship last time out, so I'm happy to swerve him.

Selection

I was more than happy to back Jon Rahm at 12.5 and the 11/1 still available with the Sportsbook in their Enhanced Win Only market is fair enough but that's it for me before the off, although I'll be back tomorrow with some outside picks in the Find Me a 100 Winner

Selection:
Jon Rahm @ 12.5

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter