The Open Betting Tips

How To Bet on Golf

Steve Rawlings Golf Previews

Golf Each-Way Tips

Long Odds Golf Tips

Each-Way Calculator

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Ferguson fairly priced to win again

Steven Rawlings
04 September 2022

Matthew Southgate in action in round three

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

It's tight at the top in Denmark with four men sharing the 54-hole lead and our man's back with his final in-running thoughts for the week here...

11:00 - September 4, 2022

Matthew Jordan was the big mover at the Made in HimmerLand yesterday but his nine-under-par 62 wasn't quite enough to see him reach the summit.

Jordan climbed from tied 29th to fifth, a shot shy of the lead held jointly by four players. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 10:50.

Matthew Southgate -17 5.14/1
Francesco Laporta -17 6.25/1
Oliver Wilson -17 8.415/2
Ross McGowan -17 9.617/2
Matthew Jordan -16 7.06/1
Ewen Ferguson -15 11.010/1
Tom Lewis-15 15.5
Justin Walters -15 18.5
-13 and 34.033/1 bar

All six previous winners sat first or second with a round to go so we should be concentrating hard on the leaders but none of them make much appeal...

Oliver Wilson looked all set to show the way with a round to go but having been matched at a low of just 3.185/40 the pre-event 320.0319/1 chance bogeyed the last two holes and its fellow Englishman, Matthew Southgate, that heads the market with 18 to play.

At 33, Southgate is still in search of his first title on any tour and he's not for me at 4/1. This is the third time he's been tied at the top with a round to go on the DP World Tour (finished ninth and second) and he also failed to convert a two-stroke lead on the Challenge Tour back in 2011.

After a run of second place finishes, Oliver Wilson finally got off the mark on the DP World Tour at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2014 and he won a couple of times on the Challenge Tour in 2018 so he does know what it feels like to get across the line but he's hard to fancy after yesterday's iffy finish.

Francesco Laporta also has a couple of Challenge Tour wins, he won his two titles in 2019, but he's yet to win at this level and having not finished inside the top-ten all year, it might be tough for him to kick on and collect today.

He finished nicely yesterday, with birdies at 14, 15 and 17 but he bogeyed four holes earlier in the round, and that was two more than he made over the first two days. Has he had his purple patch?

Ross McGowan has been in front from the get-go and of the leading four, he's the one that might just be being underestimated by the market. The 40-year-old has a couple of DP World Tour titles to his name and he looks a fair price to secure his third.

Trailing by just a stroke, at only 26, Matthew Jordan, is the youngest man in the top-five and like Laporta and Southgate, he too is in search of his first DP World Tour title.

Jordan has been in-contention a couple of times without converting. He was tied for the lead at the Qatar Masters before finishing fifth in March and he finished fourth in the Omega European Masters last year having began round four just a shot back.

He shot 76 in round four in Qatar so that was a disappointing effort and he may struggle to back up yesterday's low one.

After his hole-in-one at the 16th yesterday, pre-event pick, John Catlin, is just about still in it (trailing by four in a tie for ninth) but the one I like is my in-play pick after round one - Ewen Ferguson.

Shot of the day goes to @JohnCatlin59 with this ace at 16! #MIH22 pic.twitter.com/fH7EBpgQtB
? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 3, 2022

Ferguson was the man to benefit from Jordan's poor finish in Qatar, winning his first title from three strokes back and he won the ISPS Handa World Invitational from the front last month, leading by three with a round to go.

It's a tight leaderboard and a tough tournament to call but he's the only one in the mix with very recent winning form and he looks a fair price at 10/1 to chalk up the hattrick.

19:40 - September 2, 2022

We've reached the halfway stage of the Made in HimmerLand and pre-event 1000.0999/1 chance, Ross McGowan, still holds sway. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:30.

Ross McGowan -15 11.010/1
Richard Mansell -14 3.9
Francesco Laporta -14 9.08/1
Marcus Helligkilde -12 10.09/1
Ewen Ferguson -12 14.013/1
Tom Lewis -12 21.020/1
Soren Kjeldsen -12 30.029/1
Robert MacIntyre -11 16.015/1
John Catlin -11 19.018/1
Matthew Southgate -11 30.029/1
Oliver Wilson -11 60.059/1
-10 and 40.039/1 bar

The first three in the market before the off, last week's playoff protagonists in Switzerland, Thriston Lawrence and Matt Wallace, and Spain's Adri Arnaus, have all missed the cut and we have a 1000.0999/1 chance in front at halfway so the Made in HimmerLand is a tricky puzzle to solve.

Lawrence and Arnaus were never at the races, but Wallace reached seven-under-par for the week after five holes of his second round this afternoon. He was matched at a low of just 11.521/2 but he fell apart after that, playing his last 12 holes in five-over-par!

McGowan is bidding to emulate both last year's winner, Bernd Wiesberger, and the 2015 winner, David Horsey, and win the event wire-to-wire and the inaugural event winner, Marc Warren, is the only winner not to be inside the top-six places at this stage.

Warren trailed by seven in a tie for 13th in 2014 but the last five event winners have trailed by no more than four strokes, suggesting it's not easy to win here from off the pace but it's definitely possible to go low this week and make up plenty of ground. Just ask James Morrison...

After his opening level-par 71 yesterday afternoon, Morrison checked out of his hotel and booked a flight home before surprising himself with a course record equalling nine-under-par 62 this morning. Instead of going home he's moved up 82 places into a tie for 17th!

Given the lack of depth at the top of the leaderboard, I'm happy with the position of yesterday's in-play pick, Ewen Ferguson, and pre-event fancy, John Catlin, who were both picked out by Matt Cooper before the off and I've now also added the home hero, Rasmus Hojgaard, who must have been disappointed with today's one-under-par 70 that's seen him slip down the leaderboard to sit alongside Morrison.

Rasmus has plenty to do but he's more than capable of going super low over the weekend and I thought 44.043/1 was perfectly fair.

Richard Mansell is the warm favourite, and he wouldn't be winning out of turn. He came into the week with current form figures reading 20-4-23-3 but he's yet to win on the DP World Tour and on the only previous occasion he was within a stroke at halfway - at the Soudal Open in May - he finished 23rd.

There's been a bit of money for Francesco Laporta this evening and that makes a lot of sense. Having signed off last week's Omega European Masters with a 64 to finish 16th, he's posted two more to put himself in-contention here.

Laporta found form at the end of last year, leading through three rounds at both the BMW PGA Championship (next week's event) and at the Dubai Championship in November but he finished sixth and second and like Mansell, he's still in search of his first DP World Tour event.

I'm not around tomorrow evening so I'll be back on Sunday morning with a look at the 54-hole leaderboard.

18:30 - September 1, 2022

A Dane is yet to win the Made in Himmerland and when I first posted, less than two hours ago, an Englishman, a Scotsman and a South African were tied at the top of the leaderboard on -8 but it's been all change since.

Rasmus Hojgaard and Marcus Helligkilde have finished their opening rounds and joined the trio on -8 but England's Ross McGowan has passed them all - finishing his round on the front nine with an eagle at eight and birdie at nine to post a nine-under-par 62!

It's a packed leaderboard behind McGowan and it's a frustrating situation all round.

McGowan has nudged Dave Tindall's first round leader pick, Matthew Southgate, out of a tie for first and he was a selection of mine in the Find Me a 100 Winner column at a massive price only last week!

McGowan is trading at in excess of 40.039/1 and that's not surprising given he finished 24th in the Open de Espana last October on the last occasion he led after round one on the DP World Tour but it might be worth bearing in mind that on the two previous occasions he led after round one on the Challenge Tour he finished second and first.

Half of the six winners of this event were in front after round one and JB Hansen won here on the Challenge Tour in 2015 having led after day one so there's definitely an argument to be had in favour of McGowan.

16:35 - September 1, 2022

The first round of the Made in HimmerLand is still in progress but at the time of writing, one of Dave Tindall's first round leader selections, 100/1 shot, Matthew Southgate, is tied at the top with one of Matt Cooper's each-way fancies, 40/1 chance, Ewen Ferguson, and pre-event 150.0149/1 chance, Justin Walters.

Ewen Ferguson in Ireland.jpg

Although early days, it might be worth getting involved in-running, and concentrating on the early pacesetters.

When J.B Hansen won here on the Challenge Tour he was in front after round one and five of the six winners of this event at the venue were within three of the lead after round one.

Marc Warren won the inaugural edition having sat tied for 14th and five off the lead but like Hansen, three of the six winners of this event at HimmerLand have been leading after round one.

Given he's already won twice on the DP World Tour this year and that he won the ISPS Handa World Invitational wire-to-wire last month, Ferguson is arguably the best equipped of the leaders and I'm happy to have a small be on him at 14.5.

Pre-Event Selections:
Matt Wallace @ 27.026/1
John Catlin @ 48.047/1
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 60.059/1

In-Play Picks:
Ewen Ferguson @ 14.5
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 44.043/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u J.B Hansen @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
1u each-way Alejandro Canizares FRL @ 100/1 (Sportsbook)
Back 1u Alejandro Canizares @ 240.0239/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4