The Punter's In-Play Blog: Wide open at Deere Run

• Outsider, Todd, shows the way at Deere Run

• Late Spanish stumble sees MacIntyre head the market

• Poston and Ramsay both fancied

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07:10 - July 9, 2023

Alex Smalley, who had begun the third day of the John Deere Classic trailing the halfway leader, Cameron Young, by seven strokes, was the biggest mover on 'Moving Day', firing a nine-under-par 62 and having sat tied for 29th at halfway, he heads into round four tied for second, just one stroke behind the leader, Brendon Todd. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 07:00.

Brendon Todd -16 5.39/2
Denny McCarthy -15 5.14/1
Adam Schenk -15 6.611/2
Alex Smalley -15 7.26/1
Peter Kuest -14 19.537/2
Cameron Young -13 17.016/1
Chris Kirk -13 26.025/1
Lucas Glover -13 32.031/1
Mark Hubbard -13 32.031/1
J.T Poston -13 34.033/1
William Mouw -13 60.059/1
Jonas Blixt -13 85.084/1
Kevin Roy -13 100.099/1
Sepp Straka -12 70.069/1
Grayson Sigg -12 130.0129/1
-11 and 220.0219/1 bar

Lucas Glover, who's back in-contention again this year, caused a bit of a surprise two years ago - winning from four adrift and tied 12th with a round to go - and we have to go all the way back to 1981 to find the previous player to win this title from outside the top-ten with a round to go but that doesn't mean we haven't witnessed plenty of drama over the years.

Jordan Spieth was six back and tied for ninth with 18 to play ten years ago before he birdied five of the last six holes to claim his first title and Bryson DeChambeau trailed by four before he got off the mark on the PGA Tour in 2017.

We've also seen a couple of other winners come from four off the pace at Deere Run this century and Sean O'Hair sat five off the lead in 2005 so although last year's winner, J.T Poston, won wire-to-wire (three clear through 54 holes), a winner from off the pace is certainly possible.

A new putter and a change of caddie has done the trick for the pre-event 100.099/1 chance, Todd, so far but he's well aware that he needs to keep the pedal down today and he's there to be shot at.

Todd won the Byron Nelson Championship in 2014 having been tied for the lead and he successfully converted a one-stroke 54-hole lead at the World Wide Technology in Mexico in 2019 but on the last three occasions he's led with a round to go, he's finished fourth, 11th and 15th.

He played brilliantly yesterday but his score was helped considerably by an eagle at two and this incredible birdie at the 16th and he looks vulnerable now.

Getting to the top in style

45 feet for birdie gives Brendon Todd the solo lead @JDClassic! pic.twitter.com/RTOLYNeHGZ

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 8, 2023

With as many as 13 players within three of Todd, it's a very tricky puzzle to solve but I'm happy to chance a couple more after a few stray bullets - the defending champ, Poston, and the halfway leader, Young.

Poston won here very easily 12 months ago and he clearly loves the venue so I was happy to take 36.035/1, and Young looks a reasonable price to bounce back today.

Matched at just 3.02/1 when he hit the front, Young just never got going in round three and he hit a stinker from a fairway bunker into the water on the par four 18th that led to a double-bogey six to finish.

A level-par 71 would not have been what Young expected when he set out on his third round but now out of the lead, I can see him playing much better today.

He's the class act on a largely inexperienced leaderboard and it would be no surprise to see him go low today to finally claim his first PGA Tour title.

I thought he was short enough at 20/121.00 before the off but 16/117.00 when trailing by just three with a round to go makes plenty of appeal.

Over on the DP World Tour, Spain's Nacho Elvira was matched at just 2.186/5 when he led the Made In HimmerLand by three after a par four at the 17th hole but after an interminable wait on the treacherous 18th tee, as Ross Fisher, who had been matched at just 4.131/10 after a fast start to round three, overcomplicated what looked like a straightforward drop.

The wait did the Spaniard no good at all, and he too found water off the tee, which led to a double-bogey six. He still leads with a round to go but he's lost his place at the head of the market. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:05.

Nacho Elvira -13 4.3100/30
Robert MacIntyre -12 2.767/4
Richie Ramsay -11 5.79/2
Daan Huizing -9 25.024/1
Marc Warren -9 36.035/1
Alexander Bjork -8 26.025/1
Marcel Siem -8 40.039/1
Kalle Samooja -8 46.045/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -8 50.049/1
David Micheluzzi -8 60.059/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -7 65.064/1
-7 and 100.099/1 bar

The front three dominate the market and that makes sense.

We've seen eight tournaments staged here in the last nine years and no winner has come from any further back that two strokes after three rounds.

Thomas Pieters and Julian Suri won here in 2016 and 2017 having sat second with a round to go, trailing by one and two strokes respectively, but the other six winners were all leading or tied for the lead with a round to go.

That's not great news for Richie Ramsay who sits third, or anyone below him, including Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Daan Huizing, who trails by four, but despite the stats, Ramsay looks the value with 18 to play.

Ramsay ranked only 95th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee in round one but he's ranked third and 11th in rounds two and three, and that's quite an achievement given he only ranks 65th for Driving Distance through 54 holes.

If he can keep hitting it straight again in round four, with lift clean and place still in operation, he's going to give himself plenty of chances on what's going to be the second benign day in-a-row. Odds of almost 5/16.00 are very fair.

10:10 - July 8, 2023

Matched at a low of 2.01/1 early on Friday morning, Robert MacIntyre threatened to establish a commanding lead at the Made In HimmerLand but he failed to make another birdie after the 17th (his eighth hole of the day) and he bogeyed the seventh so we have a much tighter leaderboard than looked likely yesterday morning and McIntyre isn't even leading anymore. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:00.

Nacho Elvira -9 7.87/1
Robert MacIntyre -8 3.412/5
Ross Fisher -7 11.010/1
Richie Ramsay -6 11.010/1
Marc Warren -6 28.027/1
Marcel Siem -5 18.017/1
Daan Huizing -5 30.029/1
Freddy Schott -5 60.059/1
Daniel Brown -4 60.059/1
Jordan Smith -3 27.026/1
-3 and 50.049/1 bar

Having layed Macintyre at just the right time yesterday, I've been in two minds as to what to do next. Do I keep with my position or back him back for a free bet?

One the one hand, this is a DP World Tour event and crazy finishes with huge market moves are commonplace, but on the other, this track tends to favour frontrunners.

Only last week we witnessed all six co-leaders after 54-holes in the British Masters dropping away before Daniel Hillier won from miles off the pace, having been matched on the back-nine on Sunday at 500.0499/1.

And we saw plenty of in-play shenanigans in this event last year. Ewen Ferguson, who withdrew on Thursday morning this year, was matched at a low of 1.251/4 before one of last week's beaten third round leaders, Oliver Wilson, holed two putts from outside 60 feet on the back-nine to deny him.

I'm going to stick with what I have and see how today develops but I was sorely tempted to back MacIntyre back.

The 2014 winner, Marc Warren, who's on the premises again this year, trailed by seven in a tie for 13th at this stage, but the seven course winners since have all been inside the top-10 at halfway.

Richie Ramsay and Marcel Siem look the biggest dangers to the leaders but with low scores already being shot on a benign day in Denmark, someone closing in from off the pace as the leaders start to get jittery can't be ruled out. It is 'Moving Day' after all.

Over on the PGA Tour, ten years after Jordan Spieth got off the mark at the John Deere Classic, the highly talented pre-event favourite, Cameron Young, has hit the front. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:05.

Cameron Young -13 3.211/5
Adam Schenk -11 8.615/2
Brendon Todd -11 14.013/1
Garrick Higgo -11 17.016/1
Denny McCarthy -10 9.617/2
Ludvig Aberg -10 11.521/2
William Mouw -10 50.049/1
Kevin Roy -10 95.094/1
Mark Hubbard -9 34.033/1
Chris Kirk -8 40.039/1
-8 and 60.059/1 bar

This is a frustrating leaderboard containing four players that have very recently been Find Me a 100 Winner selections at far bigger prices than they went off this week - with the exception of last week's fancy, Garrick Higgo, who was a 150.0149/1 shot here, compared to the 210.0209/1 I took last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic - where he finished 33rd.

Young really should take all the beating from here but I'm more than happy to swerve him at just 2/13.00 given he's already finished runner-up six times and that we've seen winners here from some way off the pace recently.

As highlighted yesterday, a slow start can be overcome at Deere Run and three of the last ten winners were as far as five adrift at this stage.

One of the three was South Africa's Dylan Frittelli and I'm happy to back Higgo at 17.016/1 to emulate his fellow countryman.

Higgo won the Palmetto Championship two years ago on his very first appearance on the PGA Tour and prior to that he'd won three times in eight months on the DP World Tour with winning scores ranging from -19 to -27.

He loves a low-scoring birdie-fest and he clearly knows how to win so while it's a bit frustrating that he didn't contend last week, I'm happy to chance him here at halfway, despite his slightly scruffy finish to round two.

Higgo was matched at a low of 7.26/1 before he finished his second round bogey-birdie-par-bogey.

The 17.016/1 looks more than fair though given he's generally a 12/113.00 shot on the High Street.

10:15 - July 7, 2023

The second round of the Made In HimmerLand is well underway in Denmark and Scotland's Robert MacIntyre is the clear leader.

With just seven holes to play of his second round, the 26-year-old leads by two but there's a very long way to go and I've layed him at an average of 2.111/10.

I took the plunge after he'd birdied the 17th hole, his eighth of the day and that looks like it may have been well timed given he's not picked up another shot since.

I'll be back later today or first thing in the morning with a look at the state of play at halfway.

Over on the PGA Tour, huge outsider, Jonas Blixt, leads the John Deere Classic by two strokes after a nine-under par 62 that defies logic.

The 39-year-old was matched for plenty at 1000.0999/1 before the off but he'd missed his last three cuts on three separate Tours - the PGA, the DP World and the Korn Ferry Tour - and it's ten years to the day since he last won an individual event on the PGA Tour.

Blixt won the now defunct Greenbrier Classic a decade ago, just nine months after he won the Fortinet Championship and his only win since is the Zurich Classic, which he won with his partner, Cam Smith, in 2017.

I'm happy to back the Swede modestly at 38.037/1 given he does at least know how to win, and he was some player ten years ago.

In addition to winning twice on the PGA Tour, he finished fourth in the 2013 US PGA Championship and second in the Masters in 2014, and J.T Poston won here wire-to-wire 12 months ago so that price is perhaps slightly generous.

The tiny bet on Blixt aside, I'm happy to wait and have a proper look at the event at halfway, but I wouldn't put anyone off backing an outsider or two from off the pace.

Poston may have won from the front last year but since Steve Stricker won here in 2008, having sat tied for 80th and seven adrift, we've seen other winners here trailing by four, five, six, seven and even eight strokes after round one.

Jordan Spieth sat tied for 101st after the opening round ten years ago, when he won the title for the first time, so if your pre-event picks have started poorly, don't give up on them yet.

Made In HimmerLand Pre-Event Selections:
Matthew Jordan @ 65.064/1
Ewen Ferguson (non-runner)

In-Play Trade:
Robert MacIntyre layed @ 2.111/10
Richie Ramsay @ 5.95/1

John Deere Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Adam Hadwin @ 36.035/1
Taylor Moore @ 40.039/1

In-Play Picks:
Jonas Blixt @ 38.037/1
Garrick Higgo @ 17.016/1
Cameron Young @ 17.533/2
J.T Poston @ 36.035/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2.0 u Rafa Cabrera Bello @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.5 u Chad Ramey @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
0.5 u Andrew Landry @ 500.0499/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter