- Defending champ in front at Congaree
- Rahm poised to charge from one back
- Steve's big outsider still in the hunt
- Straight hitter Kim the value from off the pace
12:20 - October 23, 2022
After a solid four-under-par 67 in challenging conditions around the magnificent and unique Congaree in round three, the pre-event favourite and defending champ, Rory McIlroy, will take a one-stroke lead into the fourth and final round of the CJ Cup. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 12:15.
Rory McIlroy -13 2.427/5
Jon Rahm -12 3.711/4
KH Lee -12 10.519/2
Kurt Kitayama -12 11.010/1
Aaron Wise -10 26.025/1
Taylor Moore -10 48.047/1
Tom Kim -9 34.033/1
Brendon Todd -9 130.0129/1
-8 and 160.0159/1 bar
Rory's record when leading through 54 holes is more than decent. He's held a clear advantage with a round to go on 17 previous occasions and he went on to win ten times but his recent efforts haven't been great.
As he does today, on the last four occasions Rory's led through 54 holes he's done so by just a stroke and he's finished fourth, first, third and sixth. He was also tied for the lead with a round to go at the Open Championship in July when he shot a disappointing 70 around St Andrews to finish third.
Attempting to defend and a likely return to the top of the world rankings with a win, are possible negatives too but on the plus side, Rory's playing some lovely golf and the conditions look like being a bit easier today with less wind.
If Rory is to come up short, the man most likely to take the title is Jon Rahm who recovered very well yesterday after a slow start.
It's never easy to back up a low round and as highlighted yesterday, Rahm's record when leading at halfway isn't great so we probably shouldn't have been surprised that he played his first 11 holes in two-over par yesterday.
Having been a 2/1 chance at halfway, Rahm drifted all the way out to 18.017/1 but he rallied superbly on the back-nine, playing his last seven holes in three-under-par and he's very fairly priced with a round to go at 3.711/4.
Alongside Rahm, and just a stroke behind Rory, my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Kurt Kitayama, who hit a low of 4.84/1 yesterday, and the two-time Byron Nelson Championship winner, K.H Lee, cant be underestimated but the one I like at a price is Tom Kim.
Congaree has got faster and firmer as the week's progressed and Kim's accuracy from the tee could be a huge asset today.
Rory ranks number one for Driving Distance for the week and his length off the tee (as well as Kitayama's) has been a huge asset but we saw the big hitters running out of fairway several times yesterday and that could be the difference today.
It's very hard to look past the market leaders but Tom Kim won the Wyndham Championship by five in August having trailed by two with a round to go and he's just close enough if the putter warms up today.
I'll obviously be cheering on Kitayama but the value now appears to sit with Rahm and Kim with a round to go.
23:10 - October 22, 2022
The scoring at the Mallorca Open was ridiculously good today and Yannik Paul looked like having a real chance of breaking 60 after he'd played his first 11 holes of round three in nine-under par.
The 28-year-old German made three eagles on the day, at holes five, eight and 11, and he was matched at a low of just 2.021/1 after his scintillating start but that was as good as it got. Being in front appeared to affect his play and he parred his last seven holes.
The pre-event second favourite, Ryan Fox, parred his first five holes in round three but he soon got going and he eventually shot a six-under-par 65 to draw alongside Paul.
Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 23:00.
Ryan Fox -16 2.767/4
Yannik Paul -16 3.6553/20
Marcus Armitage -14 12.011/1
Dale Whitnell -14 14.013/1
Richard Mansell -13 15.014/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -12 27.026/1
Jazz Janewattananond -12 55.054/1
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen -12 80.079/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -11 36.035/1
-11 and 110.0109/1 bar
Fox is definitely the man to beat. He's already bagged a couple of titles this year - the Ras Al Khaimah Classic in February and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at the start of the month.
Fox has a 50% strike-rate when leading or tied for the lead through 54 holes (3/6) and he makes much more appeal than Paul at the prices.
Tucked in behind the leaders are a trio of Englishman who will all feel that they should be closer to the front.
Dale Whitnell began the day tied for the lead but took his time to warm up, parring his first ten holes, Marcus Armitage has had a strange three days, shooting 63-73-63 and Richard Mansell, who blew a four-stroke lead at the Alfred Dunhill three weeks ago, has been up against it since he made a quadruple bogey eight on Thursday!
Mansell finished superbly today, birdying eight holes on the back-nine to break the course record (shot 61) and he might just be ready to gain redemption.
Fox is very fairly priced but given low scores are possible here, even though they'll need help from the leaders, I haven't quite given up on my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Renato Paratore, or Rasmus Hojgaard, who I also backed before the off.
Both are tied for 11th and five off the lead so they can't be ruled out entirely but the one I like at the prices this evening is Thailand's Jazz Janewattananond who sits one closer to the lead.
Having begun the week at number 127 on the Race to Dubai standings, Jazz needs a great day tomorrow to keep his card and that could go two ways.
On one hand the pressure could get to him and he performs poorly but if he gets off to a fast start and looks like keeping his card, he may well freeroll to the 18th hole and 55.054/1 looks big.
Rasmus' brother, Nicolai is another on -12 that is more than capable of putting in a charge, but he's dropped at least two shots on each of the first three days and I doubt he can afford any mistakes tomorrow.
12:20 - October 22, 2022
The in-form world number five, Jon Rahm, briefly threatened to break 60 at Congaree yesterday when his approach to the tough par four 17th very nearly dropped for an eagle two.
Rahm tapped in the birdie at 17 after that stunning approach, his tenth of the round, to hit a low of 2.111/10 as he headed to the 18th tee with a one-stroke lead but he made his first bogey of the day there after a poor approach and he now heads into the weekend tied with my 180.0179/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Kurt Kitayama. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 12:10.
Jon Rahm -11 3.02/1
Kurt Kitayama -11 11.521/2
Aaron Wise -10 10.09/1
Cam Davis -10 12.523/2
Rory McIlroy -9 5.24/1
-7 and 27.026/1 bar
The front five have opened up a bit of a gap on the remainder and it's hard to look past the two bang in-form world stars in-the-mix - Rahm and Rory - but it may well be worth doing so.
Even if we disregard the 2021 Memorial Tournament, when Rahm had to withdraw when leading due to Covid, the Spaniard's record when leading or when tied for the lead at halfway isn't spectacular.
Ignoring the Memorial debacle, and his victory in the Zurich pairs event in 2019, he's led or been tied for the lead eight times previously and he's only gone on to win once. He kicked on to win the Mexico Open, having led by two at halfway, back in May.
Rory McIlroy looks a better bet at this stage given Rahm's record but he's looking to defend the title and that always adds a little pressure so opposing the market leaders may make sense.
Kitayama has met the first lay back target of 10.09/1 (hit a low of 8.415/2) but I'm still hopeful he can contend over the weekend. As suspected, he's loving the venue and there's room for improvement with the putter as he's missed a number of putts inside ten feet.
Inside the top-five, Cam Davis looks a better bet than Aaron Wise at the prices but the one I've added modestly this morning is Tyrrell Hatton, who's one of eight players tied for sixth on -7.
Hatton sat tied for 17th and eight off the lead at the halfway stage of the Palmetto Championship here last year before rounds of 67 and 68 saw him finish second so he clearly loves the venue and he looks a fair price at 36.035/1.
19:10 - October 21, 2022
After a smart enough three-under-par 68 on Thursday afternoon at the Mallorca Open, 34-year-old, Dale Whitnell, equalled the course record set on Thursday morning by fellow Englishman, Marcus Armitage. An eight-under-par 63. And that was enough to see him head into the weekend with a one-stroke lead over the in-form Kiwi, Ryan Fox.
Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:00.
Dale Whitnell -11 5.95/1
Ryan Fox -10 3.814/5
Rasmus Hojgaard -8 7.06/1
Maximilian Kieffer -8 20.019/1
Hugo Leon -8 50.049/1
-7 and 22.021/1 bar
Matched at a low of 2.3411/8, the pre-event favourite, Rasmus Hojgaard, looked a real threat this afternoon as he set about catching morning starters, Whitnell and Fox.
He played his first 11 holes in four-under-par but played his last six in two-over, continuing his mystifying record of performing considerably poorer on Friday than he does on a Thursday.
He's clearly still in the argument but the man to beat now is New Zealander, Ryan Fox, who was helped greatly by this brilliant shot on the par four third this morning.
Fox has been quite wayward of the tee this week and at the halfway stage he ranks as lowly as 94th for Driving Accuracy but that hasn't stopped him ranking as highly as sixth for greens hit and he's very much the man to beat now.
Having backed Fox last night and Hojgaard before the off, I'm in a reasonable position heading into the weekend and I'm happy to leave things as they are for now.
Whitnell will do well to back up today's low round and his record when leading at halfway on the DP World Tour is awful.
Granted, it's only a tiny sample size, as he's only ever co-led twice - at the Cazoo Classic last year and the Soudal Open back in May - but he looks like one to take on.
He finished 13th at the Cazoo, beaten by six, and 23rd in Belgium, beaten by eight!
Whitnell will have learnt from both experiences but the pre-tournament first and second favourites are hot on his heels and he's very hard to fancy.
The second round of the CJ Cup is well underway, and I'll be back tomorrow with a look at that one once they've reached the halfway stage.
09:40 - October 21, 2022
Having written in the preview "If there's to be one factor to separate the field, I fancy it could be length off the tee" it's no surprise to see that two big-hitters - Trey Mullinax and Gary Woodland - are tied at the top after the opening round of the CJ Cup.
And three of the six players a stroke back in a tie for third on -5 - Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark and Find Me a 100 Winner pick Kurt Kitayama - rank first, second and third for the week for Driving Distance.
Whether that trend continues as the week wares on is yet to be seen but so far at least, power off the tee appears beneficial.
I backed Rory each-way to lead after round one so a small profit was made on his tied third and I also backed him before the off with a view to laying him back.
After his decent start, Rory's now the firm 4.67/2 favourite, having gone off at 8.88/1, but I'm going to hang on to the position for now. He'll need to hang around today for his price to shorten further but it's a risk I'm willing to take.
With a return to the top of the world rankings a possibility, and with the DP World Tour Championship on the horizon, Rory sounds like he's in the mood to keep playing well and he had this to say after yesterday's start.
"Maybe if I didn't have these two things to go for over the next couple of months, I would take a bit of time off, but I still feel motivated. I think playing well motivates you even more also. There's definitely no lack of that."
Tom Kim gets to play alongside Rory again today and it didn't faze him yesterday, although he did drop a shot at the last.
The pair tee off at 18:01 UK time, alongside Rickie Fowler, who shot +3 yesterday, and I fancy they might both continue to play well.
Despite his tender ago of just 20, Kim is a prestigious talent on Tour already, with two wins in his last five starts, and I'm happy to add him this morning at 14.527/2.
22:15 - October 20, 2022
Englishman Marcus Armitage, who's nicknamed the Bullet, leads after the opening round of the Mallorca Open following an opening bogey-free, eight-under-par 63 around Son Muntaner Golf Club. A new course record.
Alone in second is Dan Huizing who shot 64 and the pre-event favourite, Rasmus Hojgaard, sits tied for third alongside Lukas Nemecz and Alejandro Canizares after the trio shot 65s.
Having backed Hojgaard before the off, I'm obviously pleased with the young Dane's start, but fast starts are nothing new for him.
Hojgaard has averaged 67.27 in the 15 first rounds he's played over the last six months on the DP World Tour and that's the best on Tour but he's no certainty to kick on tomorrow.
Only once since March has he shot a better second round than first (72-71 at the European Open in June), even if he starts slowly, and his second round scoring average over the last six months is exactly 71. He ranks first for First Round Scoring Average but only 68th for round two.
The pre-event second favourite, Ryan Fox, started slowly this afternoon, bogeying the first and hitting a series of wild drives but he cleaned up his long game a bit on the back nine to post a three-under-par 68.
He looks a fair price this evening at 22.021/1 given he's no bigger than 18/1 on the High Street and that I can see him getting a shift on in the morning.
The first round of the CJ Cup is still in progress so I'll take a look at that one tomorrow.
Mallorca Open Pre-Event Selection:
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 15.014/1
In-Play Picks:
Ryan Fox @ 22.021/1
Jazz Janewattananond @ 55.054/1
CJ Cup Pre-Event Selections:
Matt Fitzpatrick @ 28.027/1
Rory McIlroy @ 8.88/1 (back-to-lay bet)
Rory McIlroy @ 19.018/1 (each-way) 1st Round Leader
In-Play Picks:
Tom Kim @ 14.527/2
Tyrrell Hatton @ 36.035/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u Renato Paratore @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Sepp Straka @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Kurt Kitayama @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
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