The Punter's In-Play Blog: Leader survives a demanding day in the mountains

• Hot putter keeps Wallace on track

• Stats suggest leader is fairly priced

• Can Wallace become the first of three to convert a four-stroke lead at Crans?

09:55 - September 8, 2024

The combination of strong winds and some tough pin placements caused a bit of chaos around Crans in round three of the European Masters yesterday.

Only three men posted a below par round, the leader, Matt Wallace, was able to maintain his four-stroke lead, despite shooting a three-over-par 73, and the field averaged more than four strokes over par!

Wallace's performance was extremely impressive. It would have been very easy for the once temperamental golfer to have lost the plot in the demanding conditions but he hung on brilliantly and kept his score respectable with a brilliant performance with the putter.

Here' s the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:50

Matt Wallace -11 1.422/5
Alfreda Garcia-Heredia -7 27.026/1
Henrik Norlander -6 20.019/1
Andrew Johnston -6 20.019/1
Alex Fitzpatrick -5 28.027/1
Jason Scrivener -5 46.045/1
Edoardo Molinari -5 65.064/1
Cedric Gugler -5 170.0169/1
-4 and 38.037/1 bar

Just seven days after Nicklas Norgaard won the British Masters at the Belfry, to become the 41^st player to convert a four-stroke lead on the DP World Tour since 1996, Wallace bids to emulate the Dane and become the 30^th of 42 to convert.

With a strike rate of more than 70% for four-stroke leaders, it's very hard to look past the leader and having survived yesterday's brutal conditions, he really should get the job done today.

The early scoring is already better than yesterday and although there's some rain in the forecast, the wind has died down and Wallace looks fairly priced at around 2/5 but if he does go on to win, he'll be the first of three to have successfully converted a four-stroke 54 hole lead at Crans.

Patrick Sjoland was beaten by Sven Struver in extra time in 1998 and a promising young player called Rory McIlroy was edged out by Jean-Francois Lucquin in a playoff in 2008. Both men had led by four with a round to go so that will give encouragement to the chasers and those that want to take on the leader at odds-on.

07:30 - September 7, 2024

Matt Wallace has shortened up in the outright market overnight and that's understandable given the numbers. He's now a 1.758/11 chance to win the tournament but I was happy to lay him modestly in the Top 5 Finish market at long odds-on.

If he's going to get beat, and I'm far from convinced he will, he could do so in spectacular fashion and three of the last 15 players to lead a 72 hole event on the DP World Tour by four strokes at halfway have finished the week outside the top five, so 1.121/8 is arguably on the short side for Wallace to finish inside the top-five.

18:45 - September 6, 2024

Momentum is a huge factor in golf and one shot can be a turning point.

The two-time winner and pre-event favourite at this week's European Masters, Matthew Fitzpatrick, was matched at a low of 6.05/1 yesterday morning before he missed a birdie putt at his final hole (the ninth) in round one from inside six feet and he was visibly frustrated when he missed his birdie putt at the third hole from eight feet this afternoon.

The frustration bled into his long game and he bogeyed three of his next four holes before eventually ending the day on the cut line on -1, fully 13 strokes off the leader.

In contrast, Matt Wallace hit poor approach shots on both the fourth and fifth holes before chipping in for birdies at both and that set the tone for the day.

Back-to-back chip-ins for @mattsjwallace #OEM2024 pic.twitter.com/yMDK70NZcX

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 6, 2024

The Englishman went on to fire an eight-under-par 62 to lead by four and he's the only man in the field yet to make a bogey this week.

Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 18:30.

Matt Wallace -14 1.845/6
Alex Fitzpatrick -10 9.89/1
Jordan Smith -9 13.012/1
Henrik Norlander -9 23.022/1
Andrew Johnston -8 36.035/1
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen -8 80.079/1
Alfreda Garcia-Heredia -8 120.0119/1
-7 and 26.025/1 bar

Having looked at where the last ten winners were sitting after round one, it makes sense to now look at where they were at the halfway stage...

2013 - Tied for the lead
2014 - Fifth and three back
2015 - Led by a stroke
2016 - Fourth and one back
2017 - Third and five back
2018 - Second and two back
2019 - 12^th and five back
2020 - No Event
2021 - 14^th and five back
2022 - Second and one back
2023 - Fifth and three back

As highlighted yesterday, in the 23 editions since 1999, as many as nine halfway leaders have gone on to win and two have been beaten in a playoff but on closer analysis, it hasn't been an easy place to make the running lately.

We need to go back eight years to find the last 36-hole leader to go on to win, and three of the last six winners were trailing by as many as five strokes at this stage, but I have no appetite for taking on Wallace.

Since 1996, there have been 36 players lead by four at halfway on the DP World Tour and 23 of them went on to win.

That's strike rate of 64% and if we bear in mind that some of those four-stroke leaders wouldn't have been as well-fancied before the off as Wallace was here, the leader looks very fairly priced.

I'm never in a rush to back an odds-on shot and certainly not with two rounds to go, so I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and see what tomorrow brings.

21:15 - September 5, 2024

Having written in the preview that I wasn't keen on the price about Matt Wallace because he'd been starting slowly of late, the law of sod dictated that he'd then spend most of day one at the top of the European Masters leaderboard.

After a blustery, cool, wet start, the morning starter looked like ending the day in front after he'd posted an excellent six-under-par 64 in tricky conditions and when the early afternoon starters didn't really shine, he was matched at a low of 1.75/7 to end the round in front but conditions improved late in the day as the temperature rose and those that took the odds-on soon knew they were in trouble.

.@mattsjwallace setting the pace with a bogey-free 64 #OEM2024 pic.twitter.com/D0TSUZRbMB

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 5, 2024

Alfredo Garcia-Heredia and Alex Fitzpatrick both eased past the Englishman with a pair of 63s and three players drew alongside him.

The afternoon starters averaged 69.18, compared to the 70.47 averaged by the early starters, and it will be interesting to see how far back Wallace is when he tees off in round two tomorrow afternoon.

Wallace heads the market at 6.611/2 with Alex Fitzpatrick trading at 8.27/1 and he's a point shorter than his brother, Matt, who posted four-under in the cooler morning conditions but I wouldn't be in a rush to side with the younger brother.

Since Ernie Els won here in 2003, having been tied for the lead after round one, as many as 36 players have led or co-led after the first round but more have missed the cut than won!

Thriston Lawrence went on to win two years ago, after being tied for the lead following a 62 on day one, but 12 months later, co-leaders, Nacho Elvira and John Axelsen, followed their 63s on Thursday with a pair of 75s on Friday to miss the cut.

Here's where the last ten winners were sitting after round one...

2013 - Fifth and three strokes back
2014 - 28^th and five back
2015 - Third and two back
2016 - 40^th and five back
2017 - 14^th and three back
2018 - 37^th and five back
2019 - Third and one back
2020 - No Event
2021 - 33^rd and eight back
2022 - Tied for the lead
2023 - Seventh and one back

I was slightly tempted by both Richie Ramsay and Alex Bjork, who shot five-under and four-under respectively today, but all things considered, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and see what tomorrow brings.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, in the 23 editions since 1999, as many as nine halfway leaders have gone on to win and two have been beaten in a playoff so concentrating on the midway pacesetters may well be the best way to play the event.

European Masters Pre-event Picks:
Matt Fitzpatrick @ 12.5
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 29.028/1

*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter