European Masters: 28/1 Nicolai nicely priced at Crans

• GIR and Scrambling the key stats

• Debutants on a Swiss roll

• Great venue for Sunday trading

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Tournament History

Founded as the Swiss Open in 1923, the Omega European Masters has been staged at the stunning Crans-sur-Sierre course since 1939 and it's been an ever-present on the DP World Tour since its inception in 1972.

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Venue

Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland

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Course Details

Par 70, 6,808 yards
Stroke index in 2023 - 69.03

With the spectacular Crans Montana mountain range constantly in view, Crans-sur-Sierre is very easy on the eye.

The course dates right back to 1908 but it's been tweaked quite a bit of late. Significant changes came in 1999, when Seve Ballesteros oversaw a redesign, and prior to the 2013 renewal, changes were made to four holes (10, 12, 13 and 17) with the biggest coming at the par three 13th, which now has a couple of lakes in front of the green and a seating area behind it.

Further changes were made to holes one, two, four, five, nine and 14 in 2014. The fairways and fairway bunkers were remodelled on holes one, two and four. The tee was moved back by 25 yards on the par four fifth, making the hole no longer drivable, and the ninth was completely remodelled with changes to the fairway and bunkering, as well as a completely new green and green complex. The 14th hole, previously an easy par five, was reduced in length by just 38 yards and changed to a par four but it reverted back to a par five prior to the 2015 edition and it's been played as a par five ever since.

As part of a long-term project, the greens on the first, fourth and fifth holes were renovated in June last year, to provide further pin placements, and plans are afoot for further work to be carried out in the coming years.

The opening hole used to be a very easy par five but that was changed to a par four nine years ago. It was the hardest hole on the course again last year and the start here is fairly challenging with the next three holes ranking sixth, fourth and second.

The fairways are sloped, mostly tree-lined, and of average width and the greens are small and shaped like upturned-saucers. Water is in-play on six holes - 10, 12, 13, 14, 17 and 18 - while holes six and seven are short drivable par fours. Hardly anyone takes on the very narrow sixth, but the vast majority will have a go at driving the 7th. It was the easiest hole on the course last year, averaging 3.52, and there were eight eagle twos there during the week.

Crans is at altitude, so it doesn't play anywhere near as long as it's already short yardage.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Ludvig Aberg -19 22.021/1
2022 - Thriston Lawrence -18 (playoff) 44.043/1
2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard -13 55.054/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Sebastian Soderberg -14 (playoff0 540.0539/1
2018 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 (playoff) 13.012/1
2017 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -14 (playoff) 30.029/1
2016 - Alex Noren -17 (playoff) 19.018/1
2015 - Danny Willett -17 18.017/1

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What Will it Take to Win the European Masters?

The Driving stats are always a little misleading here and probably not that useful. The course is short and at altitude so there's absolutely no need to go bombing it off the tee. The driver stays in the bag for most of the holes and neither the Driving Distance nor the Driving Accuracy stats are much use, as demonstrated perfectly by the 2022 winner, Thriston Lawrence, who ranked 59^th for DD and 70^th for DA!

Last year's winner, Ludvig Aberg, ranked third for DD and 32^nd for DA but Alexander Bjork in second ranked 72^nd for DD and first for DA and Accuracy appears slightly more important than power.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ranked first for Driving Accuracy when he defended in 2018 and 16^th when he won in 2017, and the 2021 winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, ranked second for D.A.

The 2019 winner, Sebastian Soderberg, only ranked 33^rd for Greens In Regulation but the last three winners have ranked third, 11^th and third and the first and second in 2018, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Lucas Bjerregaard, ranked second and first for GIR, so that's the key stat.

Fitzpatrick only ranked 16^th for GIR in 2017 but the man who lost in the playoff for a second year running, Scot Hend, ranked number one.

Looking back, eight of the last 17 winners have ranked either first or second for GIR but had Hend won the two playoffs in 2016 and 2017, and Hojgaard and Aberg ranked second instead of third, that would have read an incredible 12 from 17.

Year after year, finding these small greens with frequency is the key to victory but if you are going to miss the odd one, getting up-and down with regularity is vital.

The last three winners have ranked only 35^th, 17^th and ninth for Scrambling but the runner-up, Bjork, ranked second last year and the two beaten playoff protagonists in each of the two previous years, Matt Wallace and Bernd Wiesberger, both topped the Scrambling stats.

As many as five of the last ten winners have ranked first, second or third for Scrambling and that trend extends further back in time with ten of the last 17 winners having ranked no worse than sixth for Scrambling.

Strokes gained figures have only been produced for the last three editions and nothing really stands out, although all four have ranked inside the top nine for SG: Tee-to-Green. Here are the last three winners with their rankings for each of the main SG categories.

2023 - Ludvig Aberg - Tee 2 App 2 ATG 31 T2G 1 P 41
2022 - Thriston Lawrence - Tee 58 App 1 ATG 22 T2G 2 P 19
2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard - Tee 2 App 5 ATG 66 T2G 8 P 12
2020 - No Event
2019 - Sebastian Soderberg - Tee 8 App 35 ATG 7 T2G 9 P 17

Stats Key
Tee = Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
App = Strokes Gained: On Approach
ATG = Strokes Gained: Around the Green
T2G = Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
P = Strokes Gained: Putting

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Is There an Angle In?

Course form holds up exceptionally well at this quirky and beautiful venue.

Matthew Fitzpatrick has figures here reading MC-2-7-1-1-69-3 and he really should have won the event for a third time last year (hit a low of [1.08) but he's still one of 12 players to win at the venue at least twice.

The 2015 winner, Danny Willett, was playing Crans for a seventh time and he'd previously finished second and fifth. The 2013 winner, Thomas Bjorn, was winning the title for a second time in three years, the 2012 winner, Richie Ramsay, has twice finished inside the top ten here since, and the 2010 victor, Miguel Angel Jimenez, has nine other top-tens to his name.

Rory McIlroy and Scott Hend haven't won the title but they've both been beaten in two playoffs so anyone that's fared well here previously needs to be considered but if recent history is anything to go by, plumping for a course debutant may well be the best tactic. The last four winners were all playing here for the first time.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

David Lipshy went off at 240.0239/1 when he won here ten years ago and Soderberg was very much a surprise winner five years ago, but the four winners before him were fairly well-fancied and the last three winners were easy enough to fancy in very open heats.

Crans-sur-Sierre has often produced a big-name winner, and the Omega European Masters has an impressive list of winners with many true greats having won here.

Thomas Bjorn, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood have all won here in the modern era and the 2015 champ, Danny Willett, joins an illustrious list of major champions to have taken this title. Sir Nick Faldo, Seve, Jose Maria Olazabal, Ian Woosnam and Ernie Els have all won here. The cream often rises to the top and concentrating hard on the market leaders usually makes sense.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Ludvig Aberg tied second - trailing by two 7.413/2
2022 - Thriston Lawrence led by three 1.9110/11
2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard tied 15^th - trailing by four 48.047/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Sebastian Soderberg tied ninth - trailing by four 100.099/1
2018 - Matthew Fitzpatrick led by two 1.738/11
2017 - Matthew Fitzpatrick tied third - trailing by four 9.08/1
2016 - Alex Noren solo second - trailing by a stroke 2.6813/8
2015 - Danny Willett tied for the lead 2.285/4

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In-Play Tactics

Ludvig Aberg won by two last year but we very often get a tight finish here and there's been a playoff in seven of the last ten renewals of the Omega European Masters.

Although the Swede won easily in the end, Matthew Fitzpatrick was matched at just 1.081/12 in-running before the wheels fell off deep into the back nine and we've seen someone trade at odds-on and get beat in each of the last three renewals.

Matt Wallace hit a low of 1.84/5 in 2022 and Bernd Wiesberger was matched at just 1.121/8 in 2021 so it's a place to take on odds-on shots in-running on a Sunday.

The 2021 winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, was matched at 150.0149/1 in-running and the 2019 champ, Sebastian Soderberg hit 1000.0999/1, and he was still trading at a triple-figure price with a round to go. Both men had trailed by four strokes with through 54 holes and Aberg was two adrift on Sunday morning but most winners are bang up with the pace from halfway here.

Fitzpatrick sat tied for 15^th and just three off the lead after day one when he won here for the first time in 2017 but like Soderberg and Hojgaard, he was five adrift at halfway and that's unusually far back for winners here.

He was trailing by five after round one in 2018 and the man he beat in the playoff, Lucas Bjerregaard, was four off the lead but they both made up ground on Friday and they sat tied for second at halfway. Aberg was three off the lead and tied fifth at halfway last year.

You generally need a fast start here and in the 23 editions since 1999, nine halfway leaders have gone on to win and two have been beaten in playoffs. A strike rate of 39% for 36-hole leaders is pretty impressive.

If you are going to get involved in-running, bear in mind that the two par fives on the back-nine, 14 and 15, are reachable in two and they offer up a great chance to score, but the par three 16^th is tough and any gains at 14 and/or 15 can soon be given back.

That's the theory, and those holes decided the event 12 months ago, but not in the expected manner...
Having just been matched at 1.081/12 when he looked like stretching his lead to three, Fitzpatrick bogeyed the par five 15^th after a very scruffy chip just seconds after Aberg had birdied the tough par three 16^th.

Ludvig knew this birdie was good #OEM2023 pic.twitter.com/FLZ3dIEBcA

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 3, 2023

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Market Leaders

Having ended 2023 ranked as the eighth best player on the planet, Matt Fitzpatrick has slipped to 27^th in the Official World Rankings after an ordinary year, where the highlights have been his two fifth placed finishes at the Players Championship and the Memorial Tournament. This week offers a great chance for him to put some gloss on 2024.

Fitzpatrick clearly loves the venue and as detailed above; he really should have won the event for a third time 12 months ago.

Last year's renewal was the final qualifying event for the Ryder Cup and, as a result, the field was slightly stronger than it is this year. Given his course form then, at odds of around 12/113.00, the two-time winner looks fairly priced, despite his ordinary recent form. His price will collapse if he starts nicely on Thursday.

Thriston Lawrence was slightly disappointing at the British Masters on Sunday, where he finished the week two strokes shy of the winner, Niklas Norgaard, but the 2022 winner is in fine fettle after his brilliant fourth in the Open Championship in July.

Prior to last week's runners-up finish at the Belfry he'd romped to a five-stroke victory in his homeland on the Sunshine Tour and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him contend again. Whether he's value to do so at 20.019/1 (half the price I took last week) is debatable though.

The 2022 runner-up, Matt Wallace, put himself behind the eight ball after round one last week, sitting tied for 125^th and nine off the lead at the Belfry following a four-over-par 76 on Thursday. However, he ended the week in eighth place after three consecutive 68s so he arrives in form.

He followed his somewhat unfortunate second placed finish (traded at a low of 1.814/5) two years ago with a tied 24^th last year when he hampered himself with a level par 70 in round one that saw him sitting tied for 85^th.

It could be argued that slow starts are a bit of a theme with the 34-year-old Englishman, given he's ended round one inside the top-30 places just twice in his 10 starts since he led the CJ Cup Byron Nelson after round one back in May, where he eventually finished fourth.

With course winners dominating the market, the 2021 winner Rasmus Hojgaard is next up following his fast finishing third at the British Masters last week. But he's been disappointing in-contention at times, after looking bombproof when he first began life on the DP World Tour, and he's missed the cut here in each of his two visits since his win on debut.

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Selections

I was happy to back Matt Fitzpatrick modestly this morning at 12.5 and I've also backed Rasmus' twin brother, Nicolai, at 29.028/1.

It's unusual to see Nicolai trading at a bigger price than his brother and he looks a value price here given his course and current form.

Having finished 29^th on debut two years ago, Nicolai finished fifth last year and, although he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship two starts ago, that's excusable given it immediately followed his seventh placed finish in the Olympics.

He finished only 14^th last time out in his homeland, in the Danish Golf Championship, but that wasn't a bad effort given he sat 91^st after a sorry 73 in round one.

Ranked at 50^th in the Official World rankings, he's 40 places higher than his twin so it's hard to make a case for him being priced up so much bigger than Rasmus here.

The 29.028/1 about Nicolai makes far more appeal than the 22.021/1 for Rasmus. I was more than happy to play him at that price.

I'll be back later today with the Find Me a 100 winner column.

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Now read more golf previews for the European Masters

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*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter

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