The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rome revived for Lowry and Straka

• Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka lead the Truist Championship

• Justin Thomas is set to chase them to the line

• Mackenzie Hughes prowling in the Myrtle Beach Classic

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10:30 - May 11, 2025

There's more than a touch of Friday morning in Rome about the leaders of the Truist Championship heading into the final round. It was during Europe's 4-0 sweep of the foursomes of the 2023 Ryder Cup that Sepp Straka and Shane Lowry combined so well, but this Sunday they go up against one another.

Here are the leaders and prices at 10:30:

Sepp Straka -14 2.9215/8
Shane Lowry -14 2.747/4
Justin Thomas -11 7.413/2
Keith Mitchell -11 18.017/1
Hideki Matsuyama -10 19.018/1
Nick Taylor -8 160.0159/1
Sam Burns -8 190.0189/1
Sungjae Im -8 180.0179/1
Tony Finau -8 260.0259/1
Rory McIlroy -8 65.064/1
-7 and 380.0379/1 bar

Straka is in familiar territory of sorts because he led The American Express in January (and won it) and also led the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February (he played the final round with Lowry and Rory McIlroy - the latter won it). His only other 54-hole lead was on the Korn Ferry Tour and he slipped to third.

Lowry has been leading after 54 holes eight times and has three wins. His near misses somewhat resonate this week: the US Open at Oakmont (a track a little similar to this week), the Turkish Open (currently taking place on the DP World Tour) and the Cognizant Classic (an event Straka pinched off him). 

Lowry has stressed that the fairways are wide this week and that once you hit them you can attack. He's leading the field for Accuracy and SG Approach. Straka has thrived by saving par and putting superbly. I'd give Lowry the edge but I continue to think Thomas is being overlooked and have bitten.

Justin Thomas posted a 4-under 66 in Round 3 of the @TruistChamp

Now at 11-under, he's just three shots off the lead heading into the final round. Watch the best moments from his round below. pic.twitter.com/gYcZoBRLAF

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 11, 2025

He's got a bit of a free swing at this after his RBC Heritage victory, can have fun trying to apply pressure, and he's a golfer who can go low. He opened that win at Harbour Town with a 61 and he thrashed a second round 62 at the Players Championship.

Three of his last four wins have seen him eat up the leaders: he won the 2020 St Jude from four shots back, the 2021 Players Championship from three back, and the 2022 PGA Championship from seven back.

Steve will be back tomorrow with the Debrief and my PGA Championship profiles are up on the site - enjoy the second major of the year!

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10:30 - May 11, 2025

The "other" Young - Carson rather than Cameron - thrashed a 7-under-par 64 to hit top spot in the Myrtle Beach Classic on 13-under 200 at The Dunes. He's one clear of Harry Higgs and two ahead of Mackenzie Hughes heading into the final round.

Here are the leaders and prices at 10:30:

Carson Young 13- 3.6553/20
Harry Higgs -12 7.613/2
Mackenzie Hughes -11 6.411/2
Victor Perez -10 18.017/1
Ryan Fox -10 15.014/1
Davis Shore -10 32.031/1
Norman Xiong -10 23.022/1
Danny Walker -10 15.014/1
-9 and 23.022/1 bar

Young has little experience of 54-hole leads. He had one on the Canadian Tour in 2021 and another late last season in the WWT Championship - both shares of the lead - and he was second both times (the latter was one of his three career PGA Tour top five finishes). 

He's had just one finish better than T40 in his last 10 starts when T10 at the Puerto Rico Open. 

Carson Young making waves in his home state

After a 7-under 64 in the third round, highlighted by a 30-yard flop shot eagle on the par-5 15th, he's leading the tournament at 13-under par pic.twitter.com/Ml1XuPmCXg

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 10, 2025

Higgs also has just the three top five finishes: second at Port Royal in 2019 (an RTJ course like this week), second at Jackson in 2020 and fourth in the PGA Championship in 2021 (an event which takes place next week, of course). He was also a two-time winner last May on the Korn Ferry Tours.

As we've already discussed this week, Hughes looked a good fit before the off and has proved it. A couple of bogeys on the front nine stalled him but he got them back after the turn. There's not a massive amount in this market but anything at 6.05/1 and above looks good to me - I've added him to the in-play picks.

Steve Rawlings' Find Me a 100 Winner pick at 720.0719/1 Will Chandler hit the top briefly but has been backed at a low of only 13.525/2 which feels cruel. He's still only four back so there's still hope of a wonderful coup. 

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16:30 - May 10, 2025

A course-record equalling 9-under-par 62 has earned Englishman Brandon Robinson-Thompson a 54-hole total of 14-under 199 and a three-shot lead heading into the final round of the Turkish Open at Regnum Carya. 

Here are the leaders and prices at 16:30:

Brandon Robinson-Thompson -14 2.466/4
Haotong Li -11 8.07/1
Robin Williams -11 17.533/2
Jorge Campillo -11 9.28/1
Martin Couvra -10 18.535/2
Mikael Lindberg -10 40.039/1
Matthew Jordan -10 17.533/2
Jordan Smith -10 12.523/2
Todd Clements -9 60.059/1
Tiger Christensen -9 140.0139/1
Ewen Ferguson -9 42.041/1
Joost Luiten -9 34.033/1
-8 and 80.079/1 bar

The Isle of Wight man is well travelled having played in South America, the Caribbean, the States, and on British and Middle East mini tours. A hot run on the Clutch Tour in the summer of 2023 morphed into a weekend of action at the Open and a breakthrough victory on the Challenge Tour a week later.

He graduated from the second tier last year and has four top 10s on the DP World Tour in the last eight months. He's won on the Clutch, MENA and Europro Tours when leading heading into the final round and his record on the Challenge Tour is not bad. He led last year's Irish Challenge by one before finishing third, then led the Scottish Challenge by four and polished off the win by eight. 

This will be a tougher task but he's giving off chilled vibes, stressing how much he's enjoying the week in a swanky hotel with his wife.

A stunning finish to tie the course record 62 @BRTtoursauce leads the way in Türkiye! #TurkishAirlinesOpen pic.twitter.com/6T962Pbqc7

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) May 10, 2025

Li is 0-for-3 at winning from second with 18 holes to play and was leading, or sharing the lead, in seven of his eight wins but the exception saw him come from two shots back.

Campillo is 1-for-9 at winning from second at this stage. His other two wins came when he was leading.

Williams has four wins in South Africa and they all came when he was leading with 18 holes to play. He's only once been second at this point, when ultimately sixth in last year's Challenge Tour Open de Portugal.

Couvra went backwards in round three as we suggested he might. A bounce back is a distinct possibility but will it be enough to nab the win?

Lindberg might be an interesting case. He's won six times on the third tier Nordic League and twice on the Challenge Tour. One of those wins saw him make up four shots in the final round.

His best golf during his first crack at the DP World Tour came at Eichenried, The K Club, Wentworth, The Belfry and Bernardus which might explain why he likes this week's tree-lined test.

Ewen Ferguson is another tree-hugger but I'll add a small stake on Lindberg. Someone has to win and among the chasers are many who could have won more than they have.

I'll be back in the morning with the Stateside pre-final round positions.

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09:20 - May 10, 2025

There's a bit of a PGA National/Honda Classic theme to the first page of the leaderboard in the Truist Championship. Keith Mitchell is setting the pace and he won at PGA National in 2019. Shane Lowry is second and has come mighty close to winning on the Florida track. Third placed Sepp Straka pipped him in 2022. And even Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy, the top two names of those in a tie for fourth, have won the Honda Classic.

Here are the leaders and prices at 09:20:

Keith Mitchell -12 4.94/1
Shane Lowry -11 4.84/1
Sepp Straka -10 8.27/1
Justin Thomas -7 16.531/2
Rory McIlroy -7 8.415/2
Collin Morikawa -7 14.527/2
Akshay Bhatia -7 46.045/1
Si Woo Kim -7 38.037/1
Patrick Cantlay -7 19.018/1
-6 and 95.094/1 bar

It's a fourth career halfway lead for Mitchell and he's converted one. He's a fine striker of the ball but hasn't won as often as he might have. This is a great opportunity but I wouldn't been keen to back him at the prices. 

Lowry has taken to the traditional layout which is no great surprise. He loves Wentworth, he was second in the US Open at Oakmont and has been eighth at Bethpage which, like this week's layout, was designed by AW Tillinghast.

He's in a terrific run of form with in 15 top 20s in his last 18 starts - and in one of the exceptions he had a decent tilt at the Masters. He just needs a win to add lustre and will fancy his chances. 

53 feet away?

No problem for @ShaneLowryGolf

Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/X1r8sDYMSD

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 9, 2025

Straka is 11-for-13 at recording top 30s in 2025, he won The American Express and a Signature Event victory would be a step up for him, but one that increasingly looks within his capability. 

The trio have clean air between them and the chasers. Lowry would be my pick but I don't necessarily see value in the price. I'm slightly surprise that RBC Heritage winner Justin Thomas is 16.015/1. He's very capable of a low round and I'd have him shorter but he's not quite into pick territory.

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09:20 - May 10, 2025

In the Myrtle Beach Classic there are 21 players within four shots of the lead and 33 within five. Pre-tournament favourite Mackenzie Hughes continues to lead, however. 

Here are the leaders and prices at 09:20:

Mackenzie Hughes -10 4.47/2
Cristobal Del Solar -10 17.533/2
Danny Walker -9 10.09/1
Harry Higgs -9 18.535/2
Nick Watney -9 55.054/1
Will Chandler -9 27.026/1
Davis Shore -9 21.020/1
Norman Xiong -8 27.026/1
-7 and 16.015/1 bar

The Canadian Hughes has a handy record with a 36-hole lead on the PGA Tour. He's had three, converted two into wins and was third on the most recent example (last year's Valspar Championship). 

The wonderfully named Cristobal Del Solar, who sounds like he was sailing round the world in Vasco da Gama's day, is a rookie in entirely new territory. A dozen starts into the season he's got one top 50, when T12 in the Zurich Classic. 

He won on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and has four wins on the LatinoAmerica Tour. Three of the latter included halfway leads but the two times he fond himself in this position on the second tier last year the same thing happened.

Both times he'd gone low through two rounds, and both times he carded a Saturday 71 to fall out the top 10. 

Leaderboard after Round 2 @MyrtleBeachCl

T1. Mackenzie Hughes (-10)
T1. Cristobal Del Dolar
T3. Davis Shore (-9)
T3. Danny Walker
T3. Harry Higgs
T3. Nick Watney
T3. Will Chandler
8. Norman Xiong (-8) pic.twitter.com/af0Nrm3l2P

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 9, 2025

Steve's Find me a 100 Winner pick Will Chandler continues to give followers a terrific run for their money.

I quite like Kevin Yu who was fourth in the event last year and has been third at Port Royal which is another Robert Trent Jones design. He was also a winner at Jackson Country Club at the end of last year. Irritatingly, the market likes him too. He's currently 7-under and 16.015/1. 

The market doesn't rate the chance of five-time tour winner Nick Watney's chances of reviving his career and with good reason: he hasn't had a top 10 since October 2021. 

I'll be back this evening for a pre-final round update of the Turkish Open. 

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17:25 - May 9, 2025

When it was announced that the Turkish Open was returning to the DP World Tour schedule, Haotong Li probably smiled. When he noticed that it was returning to Regnum Carya that grin probably widened to a point from which it's never returned.

And his second round of 6-under 65 might well have left his jaw in need of treatment from the team of physios. He doesn't lead, but the Chinese pre-tournament favourite (and Steve Rawlings' pick) is right in contention and one of the men to beat this weekend.

Here are the leaders and prices at 17:25:

Martin Couvra -11 3.412/5
Wilco Nienaber -9 8.27/1
Haotong Li -8 5.69/2
Yannik Paul -7 15.014/1
Robin Williams -7 29.028/1
Todd Clements -7 25.024/1
Tiger Christensen -7 55.054/1
Joost Luiten -6 19.018/1
Ewen Ferguson -6 23.022/1
Mikael Lundberg -6 85.084/1
Guido Migliozzi -6 20.019/1
Jorge Campillo -6 24.023/1
Clement Sordet -6 65.064/1
-5 and 22.021/1 bar

Li finished second on the course in 2016 and then in 2018 he lost in a play-off. Throw in victory at the Qatar Masters in February and two top 10s followed a first round lead last time out, and he made a compelling favourite - but it doesn't always work out so simply.

It still might not, of course. Golf is a fickle game and Li is a fickle golfer, but anyone who backed him before the off, or before today's play, can lay him at considerably lower odds.

The leader, the French youngster Martin Couvra, has been mightily impressive so far with 12 birdies against one bogey (on Thursday). A rookie this season he has four top seven finishes including fifth last time out.

He was a fast-finishing winner on the Challenge Tour in 2023 but the three times he's hit top spot on his own in pro level golf he's blinked. In a 2022 Alps Tour event a 65 got him the pre-final round lead, a 75 lost it. On the Sunshine Tour in early 2024 a first round 61 nabbed the lead, a 71 lost it. In his next start he hit the 36- and 54-hole lead on the Challenge Tour in India, and slipped to fifth in the final round. 

If he's good enough, these will be vital learning experiences. Just bear them in mind. He's still raw.

Finishing in style

Martin Couvra gets his fifth and final birdie of the day at the last to lead by three. #TurkishAirlinesOpen pic.twitter.com/SpJaLtxjcE

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) May 9, 2025

Nienaber has long been considered one-to-watch and I was at the Fairhaven Trophy last weekend (a boys event run alongside the Lytham Trophy) where members still talk in awe of his hitting as a young teenager.

He's won the Dimension Data Pro-Am on the Sunshine Tour twice, most recently in February, and he thrashed a third round 64 in Abu Dhabi on the Challenge Tour last time out. 

As a big hitter, conventional wisdom says he needs a wide course but his best DP World Tour efforts so far have come between the trees at Hanbury Manor, Valderrama, Randpark and Galgorm Castle so this week's layout suiting him makes some sense.

I'll return tomorrow morning with the Stateside halfway positions.

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09:20 - May 9, 2025

There's been no sign of a sticky wicket at the Philadelphia Cricket Club in the Truist Championship with 64 of the 70-man field breaking par and 44 of them shooting 67 or lower. 

Here are the leaders and prices at 09:20:

Keith Mitchell -9 10.519/2
Denny McCarthy -8 16.531/2
Rickie Fowler -7 65.064/1
Collin Morikawa -7 7.26/1
Sepp Straka -7 15.529/2
Akshay Bhatia -7 25.024/1
Sam Stevens -6 55.054/1
Joe Highsmith -6 110.0109/1
Keegan Bradley -6 32.031/1
Shane Lowry -6 23.022/1
-5 and 11.010/1 bar

Keith Mitchell is a Thursday machine currently. Playing the back nine first he was level-par through five holes but then went bogey-free and birdie-bonkers through his next 13 holes to card 32-29=61.

In his last six individual starts his 18 hole position has been 5-61-1-1-2-2 and now he's added another 1 although this was his first solo advantage.

In terms of finishing position in the same stretch, it reads 42-MC-54-18-12-2 which indicates progression and there are only two ways to go from "2" which is play-off defeat or victory. The market, however, knows he has just one win on tour (the 2019 Honda Classic) and that his best finish from his five previous first round leads (solo or shared) is fifth in the 2023 Genesis Invitational.

Rory McIlroy carded a 4-under 66 and can be backed at 11.010/1. On the same score Ludvig Aberg is now 30.029/1 and Justin Thomas 30.029/1.

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09:20 - May 9, 2025

There was a fast start from the pre-tournament favourite Mackenzie Hughes in the Myrtle Beach Classic. An 8-under 63 gives him a one-shot lead and draws him into 4.84/1 from the 25.024/1 you get on Wednesday.

Here are the leaders and prices at 09:20:

Mackenzie Hughes -8 4.84/1
Seamus Power -7 11.521/2
Will Chandler -7 36.035/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -7 7.613/2
Andrew Putnam -6 22.021/1
Ryan Fox -6 20.019/1
Alejandro Tosti -6 19.018/1
Christobal Del Solar -6 100.099/1
-5 and 25.024/1 bar

Hughes was third at the RBC Heritage last month and has wins at Sea Island and Jackson Country Club so looked a good fit for this seaside test - and so it has proved. 

It's his sixth PGA Tour first round lead. Of the first five, three were shared and he drifted from the picture. His first solo lead concluded with the RSM Classic win in 2016 and his second saw him finish third in the 2020 Travelers Championship. 

The market is not too interested in Will Chandler but he was second at Metedeconk National last August which, like The Dunes, is a Robert Trent Jones design and he was sixth in the Phoenix Open. He was one of Steve's Find me a 100 Winner picks at 720.0719/1 so we'll keep an eye on him. 

I'll be back this evening with a halfway update from the Turkish Open.

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18:50 - May 8, 2025

Remember the bizarre scenes back in 2012 when the Turkish Golf Federation organised a swanky exhibition event with what then seemed to be quite a large purse? Tiger Woods was among those invited causing all sorts of chaos and excitement on the first tee which culminated with the Federation President headbutting a local journalist.

A year later Woods finished third in the first edition of this now reinstated tournament and his impact, to some extent at least, has echoed down the years.

After 18 holes at Regnum Carya three young golfers are tied for the lead and two of them are named after the greatest golfer of the modern era. France's Martin Couvra (22) was the first to hit the clubhouse on 6-under 65 but he was soon joined by Germany's Tiger Christensen (22) and the South African Robin Tiger Williams (23).

Here are the early pacesetters and prices at 18:50:

Martin Couvra -6 11.010/1
Tiger Christensen -6 100.099/1
Robin Williams -6 22.021/1
Joost Luiten -5 9.08/1
Brandon Robinson-Thompson -5 15.014/1
Daniel Gale -4 65.064/1
Yannik Paul -4 25.024/1
Todd Clements -4 46.045/1
Gregorio De Leo -4 44.043/1
-3 and 18.535/2 bar

Of the three leaders, Williams is the most experienced with two wins on the Sunshine Tour and five top 20s on the DP World Tour including second in the 2024 SDC Championship.

Couvra won on the Challenge Tour last year and has impressed as a rookie this season logging five top 15 finishes including a third top five last time out in the Hainan Classic.

Christensen is the son of musicians who sometimes appear under the stage names Jasper Forks and Rollergirl. He turned pro after winning a card at Q School and this is his second opportunity since then (he made the cut in the Mauritius Open). If he rode this wave and lifted the trophy it would be a tremendous tale, but the market doesn't believe in fairytales. He's still available at three figures.

Steve's pre-event pick Haotong Li finished second on debut at the course in 2016, lost a play-off two years later and is a winner this season who has retained his form. He was clear favourite before the off, priced 16.015/1, and after a 69 he is still 19.018/1.

It's a raw leaderboard at the moment with 43 players within four shots of the lead. I'll be back in the morning with a look at the Truist Championship and Myrtle Beach Classic.

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Turkish Open Pre-event selections:
Haotong Li @ 18.017/1
Jacques Kruyswijk @ 75.074/1

Truist Championship Pre-event selections:
Jason Day @ 75.074/1  *non-starter

Myrtle Beach Classic Pre-event selections:
Joel Dahmen @ 65.064/1
Chan Kim @ 75.074/1
Max McGreevy @ 60/161.00

Find Me a 100 Winner column picks:
Brian Harman @ 100.099/1
Dylan Naidoo @ 400.0399/1
Will Chandler @ 720.0719/1

In-play selections:
Turkish Open - Mikael Lindberg @ 40.039/1
Truist Championship - Justin Thomas @ 7.413/2
Myrtle Beach Classic - Mackenzie Hughes @ 6.411/2

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