The Punter's In-Play Blog: Olesen chanced from way off the pace

• Smith still heads the market in Paris

• Leaders have a poor record at Le Golf National

• Olesen backed at a huge price

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21:45- September 23, 2023

Jordan Smith began the third round of the Open de France leading by three strokes but Scotland's Ewen Ferguson has reeled him in and the pair are tied with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:30.

Jordan Smith -13 2.568/5
Ewen Ferguson -13 3.814/5
Kazuki Higa -12 9.617/2
Yannik Paul -11 7.413/2
Ryo Hisatsune -9 32.031/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -8 46.045/1
Julien Brun -8 75.074/1
Richard Mansell -8 110.0109/1
Zander Lombard -8 110.0109/1
Adrian Otaegui -7 110.0109/1
Lukas Nemecz -7 560.0559/1
-6 and 110.0109/1 bar

The front two understandably dominate the market but 54-hole leaders don't have a great record at Le Golf National.

Only three of the last 12 editions have been won by the third-round leader or co-leader and we've seen plenty of winners come from some way back.

Last year's victor, Guido Migliozzi, who was matched at a triple-figure price before the final round, was the third winner to trail by at least five strokes since 2014 and we lost the 2020 and 2021 editions to the pandemic!

We've seen winners come from two, three, four, five and seven adrift at Paris National and when Graeme McDowell defended the title nine years ago, he trailed by eight with a round to go!

I'm happy to be onboard Ferguson and I haven't completely given up on pre-event pick, Hojgaard, who parred or birdied 17 of the 18 holes he played today.

The Dane was matched at a low of 5.24/1 after four birdies in-a-row from the fifth today and he looked like heading into round four bang in-contention when he went to five-under-par for the round with a birdie at the par five 14th but big numbers are always possible here and he followed that birdie four with a quadruple bogey eight at the 15th after putting two balls in the water.

Trailing by five, Hojgaard looks a reasonable price at 46.045/1, the classy Tom Kim, who trades at a triple-figure price, can't be ruled out, even though he trails by seven, and I was more than happy to take the 275/1276.00 on the Sportsbook about Thorbjorn Olesen, who sits alongside Kim on -6.

19:25- September 22, 2023

My pre-event pick, Rasmus Hojgaard, started nicely early this morning and he was matched at a low of 7.87/1 when he played his first six holes in three-under-par but three bogeys in-a-row around the turn halted his progress, and he eventually posted a two-under-par 69.

The pre-event favourite, Tom Kim, was matched at just 2.3811/8 after he returned to the head of affairs after a nice start to round two but a poor finish sees him go into the weekend trailing by seven!

Trouble is never too far away around Le Golf National and the 21-year-old Korean played his last three holes in five-over-par.

With Kim faltering, Jordan Smith struck the front and despite an awful par putt miss on the 16th green, he'll head into the weekend leading by three. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:20.

Jordan Smith -12 2.466/4
Ewen Ferguson -9 10.09/1
Yannik Paul -7 13.5
Rasmus Hojgaard -7 15.014/1
Ryo Hisatsune -7 23.022/1
Julien Brun -7 26.025/1
Richard Mansell -7 42.041/1
Zander Lombard -7 46.045/1
Matthew Southgate -6 32.031/1
Andrew Wilson -6 80.079/1
Kazuki Higa -6 100.099/1
Tom Kim -5 15.5
-5 and 28.027/1 bar

Jordan Smith finds himself in front at halfway for the second time in two weeks and he'll be hoping to fare considerably better this time around.

He was tied for the lead with Shubhankar Sharma at the midway point of the Irish Open a fortnight ago but weekend rounds of 73 and 74 saw him end the week in 12th place. And that was after he'd been matched at 2.021/1 on Friday before he double bogeyed the 17th hole in round two.

He was very impressive when winning the Portugal Masters this time last year but after his poor performance a fortnight ago, and bearing in mind that -that victory in Portugal was only his second on the DP World Tour and his first in five years, I'm more than happy to swerve him here.

He's often been disappointing in-contention and after his flop in Ireland, the win in Portugal could transpire to be a bit of a one-off and when we add in the poor record of halfway leaders here, he looks even more opposable.

Smith is the 15th person to hold a clear lead at the Open de France at halfway this century and only two of the previous 14 went on to win. Of those 14, three have led by three or more strokes and all three finished second.

Scotland's Ewen Ferguson started his second round by double bogeying the opening hole but he bounced back spectacularly after that and after a tap in birdie at the tough 18th, he' posted a four-under-par 67 to get to within three of Smith, despite the awful start.

Despite being a best price of 8/19.00 on the High Street, he was matched at as high as 12.011/1 after he'd finished his round and anything in double-figures looks fair. I was more than happy to get him onside at 11.010/1.

The 27-year-old won twice last year, and he's been generally more resolute in contention than the leader of late.

It's certainly not a two-man race and as Kim demonstrated perfectly today, things can happen fast here. Just ask Rasmus Hojgaard!

The Dane was six clear at halfway 12 months ago but he made an eight on the par three second on Saturday!

Hojgaard rallied well after that to finish second and he's certainly in with a chance this year too if he can avoid a disaster.

I'll take another look after round three tomorrow night or early on Sunday morning.

22:25- September 21, 2023

The pre-event 12.011/1 favourite, Tom Kim, sits alone atop of the Open de France leaderboard after a seven-under-par 63 on Thursday morning that looked better and better as the day wore on.

Playing in continual rain in Paris, the early starters endured the worst conditions and when the rain stopped in the afternoon the scoring improved markedly.

The final three-ball will need to come back in the morning to finish their first rounds off but with almost the entire field in the house, the PM starters have averaged 70.36 compared with the 72.06 averaged in the morning.

Kim was matched at a low of 2.962/1 this morning but as the afternoon wave made headway, he drifted out to more than 3/14.00 and at the close of play his price has settled at around 3.814/5. Whether that's a fair price or not is debatable.

We haven't seen a first-round leader win for eight years but we lost two editions to the pandemic and between 2003 and 2015, as many as five first round leaders or co-leaders went on to win.

The weather looks good in the morning so those that began the event this afternoon will get a chance to post a score before Kim kicks off round two and with that in mind, it's hard to see him shortening up.

My pre-event pick, Rasmus Hojgaard, who really should have won last year after opening the event with rounds of 62-65 to lead by six at halfway, has shown that debut performance was no fluke and he trails the leader by two after a five-under-par 66.

Alongside Rasmus is Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Adrian Otaegui, and 22.021/1 looks a fair price for the Spaniard given he's no bigger than 16/117.00 on the High Street and like Hojgaard, he's an early starter in the morning.

With as many as 26 players within three strokes of the lead, it's a wide-open event so I've only had a very modest wager on Otaegui and I'll be back again tomorrow with a look at the state of play at halfway.

Open de France Pre-event Selection:
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 60.059/1

In-Play Pick:
Adrian Otaegui @ 22.021/1
Ewen Ferguson @ 11.010/1
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 275/1276.00 (Sportsbook)

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2u Callum Shinkwin @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1u James Morrison @ 240.0239/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
0.5u Nacho Elvira @ 570.0569/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

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