The Punter's In-Play Blog: Odds-on Berger still leads at Bay Hill

• Prolific Gotterup chanced from off the pace

• Castillo hits the front in Puerto Rico

• In-form South African up by two

• For the latest Betfair golf odds click here

• Click here for more golf tips for upcoming tournaments 

---

07:10 - Match 8, 2026

Dangerous weather caused a suspension in play at the Arnold Palmer Invitational yesterday but most of the field managed to complete their third rounds.

The halfway leader, Daniel Berger, will return at 8:00 am (13:00 in the UK) to an eagle putt from 33 feet on the par five 16^th with his playing partner, Akshay Bhatia, now within two after he got up-and-down for birdie on the same hole late last night.

The only other two still to finish their third rounds are Ludvig Aberg and Sahith Theegala, who are yet to tee-off at the par three 17^th. Rickie Fowler and Collin Morikawa, who were in the third form last group, elected to play the 18^th last night as darkness fell. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 7:00.

Daniel Berger -13 1.9720/21 (thru 15)
Akshay Bhatia -11 6.411/2 (thru 16)
Collin Morikawa -9 10.519/2
Cameron Young -9 12.011/1
Sepp Straka -9 17.016/1
Min Woo Lee -8 26.025/1
Ludvig Aberg -7 48.047/1 (thru 16)
Chris Gotterup -7 55.054/1
-6 and 120.0119/1 bar

Berger has already been matched at as short as 1.68/13 but he now looks vulnerable, despite the fact that he's highly likely to move three clear when play resumes today.

As highlighted yesterday, on the last two occasions he's held a clear 54-hole lead he's been beaten.

He failed to convert a three-stroke 54-hole lead at the Travelers Championship in 2016, and more recently, a five-stroke 54-hole lead at the Cognizant Classic in 2022. He shot 75 at the Travelers to finish fifth, beaten by three, and he finished fourth, beaten by three, after a 74 at the Cognizant Classic in round four.

I've already layed him in-running at odds-on but I've also backed two of the chasers modestly.

Chris Gotteup is in search of his fourth victory in 13 starts and he just looked too big at 60.059/1.

He won his second PGA Tour title in July at the Scottish Open and he kicked off 2026 with a victory at the Sony Open before coming from outside the top 10 to win the Phoenix Open last month.

He was tied for the lead in Scotland, two back at the Sony, and four adrift before round four in Phoenix. It all depends how Berger finishes up round three today but he's currently five back. That could strectch to six or more but he certainly knows how to get the job done should the leaders wobble.

In addition to the lay on Berger and the bet on Gotterup, I've also had a tiny wager on the defending champ, Russell Henley, who sits one behind Gotterup in a tie for ninth.

He's got plenty to do but he's a big price should the front two post over-par final rounds.

I quite liked the chances of the clear halfway leader at the Puerto Rico Open, Chandler Blanchet, but he slipped into a tie for second after a two-over-par 74 in round three and it's the pre-event 25/126.00 chance, Ricky Castillo that now leads with 18 to play.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:05.

Ricky Castillo -12 3.613/5
Matt Schmid 11 7.26/1
John Parry -11 7.613/2
Blades Brown -11 9.28/1
Chandler Blanchet -11 11.010/1
Davis Thompson -10 13.012/1
Jeremy Paul -10 25.024/1
-9 and 40.039/1 bar

The Puerto Rico Open has been in existence since 2004 and only two winners, Derek Lamely in 2010 and Alex Cjeka in 2015, have been outside the top three places with 18 to play. And they were both only fifth and three back.

This is clearly a tough place to play catch up and four of the last six winners were leading through 54 holes. This year's third round leader, Castillo, looks fairly price at around 5/23.50.

Davis Thompson, who fired his way into the mix with a seven-under-par 65 yesterday, is an interesting runner but I'm happy to play the leader at the industry-wide best price of 5/23.50 with the Sportsbook.

---

16:55 - March 7, 2026

The third rounds have started at the two events on the PGA Tour - the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Puerto Rico Open - and I'll be back tomorrow with a look at those two, but the Joburg Open on the DP World Tour has finally reached the 54 hole stage.

After the weather delay on Friday, Saturday was a very long day at the Joburg Open and the third round has only just finished.

The Exchange market is still settling itself down so here's the 54-hole leaderboard with Sportsbook prices at 16:50.

Hennie Du Plessis -14 13/102.30
Casey Jarvis -12 4/15.00
Dan Bradbury -12 6/17.00
Alex Fitzpatrick -12 13/27.50
Brandon Robinson-Thompson -12 9/110.00
Nathan Kimsey -10 25/126.00
Adrian Otaegui -10 33/134.00
Jack Hawksby -10 70/171.00
Daniel Van Tonder -9 50/151.00
David Revetto -9 90/191.00
Jayden Schapher -8 50/151.00
Patrick Reed -8 55/156.00
-8 and 125/1126.00 bar

The in-form Hennie Du Plessis shot 29 on the back-nine in round three to post an eight-under-par 62 to hit the front but it's a competitive looking leaderboard.

Du Plessis, who's played nicely in-contention over the last fortnight, finished third in the Kenyan Open and second in the South African Open so he's probably due to win his first DP World Tour event but there are dangers aplenty, including the winner of both the last two events, Casey Jarvis, who trails by just two.

Jarvis is bidding to become only the third man in history to win three events in-a-row on the DP World Tour so he's highly likely to feel the pressure as he bids to put his name alongside Seve Ballesteros and Sir Nick Faldo.

Also in the thick of it is the 2022 winner, Dan Bradbury, and on the fringes of contention are the pre-event favourite, Jayden Schapher, who won twice before Christmas, and Patrick Reed, who won once in January and once in February.

There are plenty of players in-the-mix with strong claims and we also have to consider that this is a venue at which you can come from off the pace with 18 to play.

There haven't been many events staged here on the DP World Tour but Nick Price was five back after 54 holes in 1997, Justin Rose was four adrift in 2002, and Mark Foster was four off the lead in 2003 but last year's winner of this event, Callum Hill, trumps them all.

Having been matched at 990.0989/1 in-running, he was a 400.0399/1 chance when he trailed by eight with a round to go!

Good luck if you're getting involved but my sole selection before the off, Daniel Van Tonder, and my Find me a 100 Winner pick, Adrian Otaegui, are both on the premises so I'm leaving the event alone now.

---

09:00 - March 7, 2026

After poor weather put pay to play on day two of the Joburg Open yesterday afternoon, the second round is yet to be completed. Those drawn AM-PM are just finishing up their second rounds this morning so for now I'm going to concentrate on this week's two PGA tour events - the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Puerto Rico Open - which have both reached the halfway stage.

Here are the two 36-hole leaderboards with prices to back at 8:50.

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Daniel Berger -13 2.427/5
Akshay Bhatia -8 15.529/2
Collin Morikawa -7 9.89/1
Ludvig Aberg -7 11.010/1
Sahith Theegala -7 27.026/1
Rickie Fowler -6 32.031/1
Xander Schauffele -5 30.029/1
Russell Henley -5 40.039/1
Rory McIlroy -4 17.016/1
Cameron young -4 55.054/1
Chris Gotterup -4 75.074/1
Scottie Scheffler -3 15.014/1
-4 and 180.0179/1 bar

Puerto Rico Open

Chandler Blanchet -13 2.68/5
Gordon Sargent -9 17.016/1
Ricky Castillo -8 9.617/2
Jesper Svensson -8 16.015/1
Blades Brown -8 22.021/1
Jeremy Paul -8 29.028/1
Matt Schmid -7 23.022/1
John Parry -7 24.023/1
Beau Hossler -7 30.029/1
Jimmy Stanger -7 46.045/1
John Daly II -7 150.0149/1
-6 and 70.069/1 bar

With Daniel Berger leading by five at Bay Hill and Chanler Blanchet up by four in Puerto Rico, plenty of punters may be tempted to double up the two on the Sportsbook.

Berger is an 11/102.11 chance and Blanchet is 11/82.38 so the double is (as near as damn it) 4/15.00.

Looking back at the PGA Tour over the last 30 years, five-stroke 36-hole leaders have a 64.5% strike rate, and four stroke leaders go on to win 40% of the time.

Those stats would suggest that Berger is too big at odds-against and that Blanchet is a fair price on the Exchange but of the two, I definitely prefer the frontrunner in Puerto Rico.

Bay Hill is a tough place to lead and if we disregard Tiger Woods' incredible record (he converted all three of his halfway leads at Bay Hill) we're left with a gloomy picture for Berger backers.

As many as 16 different players have held a clear lead at halfway in the last 30 years and only four of them went on to win.

Berger's lead is substantial but in the last four years we've seen Shane Lowry and Viktor Hovland both fail to convert two stroke leads, the two men to lead here by three, Rocco Mediate and Morgan Hoffman, both failed to convert and Adam Scott finished third in 2014 (beaten by two) having led by seven at halfway!

Add in to the equation that Berger failed to convert a three-stroke 54 hole lead at the Travelers Championship in 2016, and more recently, a five-stroke 54-hole lead at the Cognizant Classic, in 2022, and it's quite clear why he's weak in the market, despite his huge lead.

I'm more than happy to swerve Berger but alternatives are tough to spot and I'm happy to sit on my hands for now.

The best players on the plant, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, trail by ten and nine strokes respectively but they're definitely not out of it.

Scottie won the 2022 edition having trailed by eight at halfway and Rory won from six adrift here in 2018.

Everything depends on how Berger handles the heat over the weekend, and I suspect we might be evaluating a much tighter looking 54-hole leaderboard.

Blanchet is a far more tempting proposition than Berger and odds in excess of 6/42.50 look very fair about the improving 30-year-old, who won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, but clear 36-hole leaders in Puerto Rico have only a 25% strike rate.

The only two men to lead by three or more, Matt Jones in 2012 (led by three) and Carson Young in 2023 (led by four) finished fifth and third respectively, beaten by five and four strokes, so it's not an easy place to convert and it's fascinating leaderboard below Blanchet.

In Gordon Sargent and Ricky Castillo, we have two former world number one amateurs on the premises and the 18-year-old phenom, Blades Brown, who shot 60 at The American Express in January, is in-contention too.

There are four experienced Europeans that have made their way over from the DP World Tour in the mix, as well as Jon Daly's son, John II, who's playing in his first PGA Tour event, but the one I like for a modest halfway play is the vastly experienced 30-year-old, Beau Hossler, who sits tied for seventh and six off the lead.

He'll need help form the leader but I though he was a fair price at 30.029/1.

Hossler is yet to win on the PGA Tour and it's now eight years since Ian Poulter beat him in extra time at the Houston Open, but he also lost a playoff at the Sanderson Farms as recently as October 2024 and he looks an interesting runner her heading into the weekend.

---

Now read more Golf tips and previews here.