The Punter's In-Play Blog: Bridgeman shoots clear at Riviera

• Course debutant six clear

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09:10 - February 22, 2026

After a blistering start to round three (three-under-par through four), and an even faster start to the back nine at Riviera (played holes 10, 11 and 12 in four-under), Jacob Bridgeman, who's playing here for the first time, has moved six clear of the field with a round to go at the Genesis Invitational.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:00.

Jacob Bridgeman -19 1.241/4
Rory McIlroy -13 7.26/1
Alderich Potgieter -12 50.049/1
Aaron Rai -11 150.0149/1
Xander Schauffele -10 85.084/1
Kurt Kitayama -10 200.0199/1
-9 and 300.0299/1 bar

If we disregard Jon Rahm's withdrawal at the Memorial Tournament in 2021, when he tested positive for Covid when six clear through 54 holes at Muirfield, only five of 28 men have failed to convert a six-stroke 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour over the last 30 years.

Greg Norman famously lost the US Masters 30 years ago having led by six, Sergio Garcia failed to convert at the Well Fargo in 2005, Spencer Levin at the Phoenix Open in 2012, Dustin Johnson at the WGC HSBC Champions in China in 2017, and most recently, Collin Morikawa at The Sentry three years ago.

Justin Rose, who went on to win the Farmers Insurance Open by seven at the start of the month, was the last player to lead by six with 18 to play and he was trading at just 1.061/18 before round four so at first glance, Bridgeman looks a decent price, but I'm not convinced.

Since the turn of the century, we've seen 10 players lead here by at least three strokes with 18 to play and four failed to get home. And only one of the 10, Jon Rahm, who led by three in 2023, managed to break 70 on Sunday. The Spaniard won by two after firing 69 in round four.

Davis Love in 2001, Charles Howell III in 2003, and Bill Haas 10 years later, all failed to convert a three-stroke 54-hole lead and Justin Thomas finished runner-up in 2019 having been four clear with a round to go.

Steve Stricker, in 2010, is the only player to lead by six and he went on to win by two after shooting 70 on Sunday and Mike Weir (2004) and Dustin Johnson [2017) both shot 71 on Sunday to win by one and five respectively having led by five.

All those named had bags of experience and five of them were major champions. Bridgeman is looking to win his first PGA Tour title and his nearest challenger, Rory McIlroy, is one of the best to ever play the game so a serene passage to victory looks unlikely.

Alone in third and seven back, Alderich Potgieter, who's no bigger than 33/134.00 on the High Street, is a big price at 50.049/1 and that's mildly tempting but I'm happy to leave the event alone now and just enjoy the spectacle.

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11:45 - February 21, 2026

Previous course form is a big plus at Riviera, the venue for this week's Genesis Invitational. 

Joakim Niemann won on his fourth start here four years ago and James Hahn won here on his third Riviera start nine years ago but they're the only winners in the last 20 years to have played here less than four times previously so it's a little surprising to see two course debutants leading at the halfway stage.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:30.

Jacob Bridgeman -12 6.411/2
Marco Penge -12 7.613/2
Rory McIlroy -11 3.02/1
Xander Schauffele -9 9.417/2
Adam Scott -9 19.537/2
Min Woo Lee -8 24.023/1
Max Greyserman -8 46.045/1
Tommy Fleetwood -7 19.018/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -7 34.033/1
Wyndham Clark -7 55.054/1
Kurt Kitayama -7 60.059/1
-6 and 85.084/1 bar

It's also surprising that Rory McIlroy is yet to win at Riviera. He's contended a few times (tied for the lead through three rounds in 2020) but fourth in 2019 is still his best finish here.

With the two tied for the lead searching for their first PGA Tour titles, and the soft course conditions playing into his hands, Rory's the man to beat here at halfway but Tiger Woods drew a blank here and I just wonder if McIlroy will ever taste victory at Riviera. I'm in no rush to get with him at just 2/13.00.

Since Phil Mickelson converted a four-stroke 36-hole lead in 2008, only two halfway leaders have gone on to win - Dustin Johnson in 2017 and Niemann in 2022 - and we've seen several off the pace winners in that time.

Bubba Watson shot 64-64 over the weekend to win form tied 40^th and eight back at halfway, Hideki Matsuyama also trailed by eight at this stage two years ago, and when Max Homa won here in 2021 having trailed by six, he beat Tony Finau in extra time, who had been eight back at halfway.

I've had a tiny bet on the two-time course winner, Adam Scott, who trails by three, but other than that, I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and see where we are after round three.

Over on the DP World Tour, none of the leaders managed to get away in round three of the Kenya Open and we're left with a congested leaderboard to assess with 11 players within four of the lead.

Here's the latest state of play at 11:35.

Angel Ayora -17 2.915/8
Casey Jarvis -17 4.3100/30
Hennie Du Plessis -16 6.611/2
Davis Bryant -16 14.013/1
Francesco Laporta -15 17.016/1
Jacob Skov Olesen -14 28.027/1
Ricardo Gouveia -14 36.035/1
Anthan Kimsey -14 40.039/1
Antoine Rozner -13 50.049/1
Ryan Van Velzen -13 120.0119/1
Aaron Cockerill -13 140.0139/1
-12 and 180.0179/1 bar

Although it looks like a tight leaderboard, the stats suggest that one of the front two will be lifting a DP World Tour trophy for the first time tomorrow.

There have been 14 72-hole stroke play events staged at Karen since 2004 and only one winner, Daniel Vancsik in 2005, who had been three in front at halfway before a 75 in round three, has been outside the top two places with 18 holes to play, and he only trailed by three strokes.

That's far from a huge sample size but I'm happy to stick with yesterday's in-play pick, Angel Ayora, who, quite rightly, now heads the market.

His play this week has been exceptional and had he holed a few more putts he'd be out of sight already.

Nerves could play a part tomorrow given this is the first time he's led or co-led with 18 to play on this bigger stage but he converted his only 54-hole lead on the HotelPlanner Tour and it's only a matter of time before he wins on the DP World Tour. He's most definitely the one they all need to beat.

Although a winner on the HotelPlanner Tour and the Sunshine Tour when leading through three rounds (led by two and five strokes) on the two occasions that Casey Jarvis has led on the DP World Tour, he's failed miserably.

He shot 74 in round four of the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan in 2024 to fall from first, leading by one, to tied 18^th, and he finished third in the Mauritius Open just before Christmas, beaten by five, having been tied for the lead after 54 holes. He'd also led that event by two at halfway.

If I had to pick an alternative to Ayora, I'd probably plump for Nathan Kimsey at around 40/141.00. The Englishman has been dogged by injury over the last few years, but he's been catching the eye of late now he has a clean bill of health.

He looks a decent price but given the stats and how impressive Ayora's been over the last few days, I'm happy to stick with him.

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17:35 - February 20, 2026

They're playing catch up on the PGA Tour after poor weather caused a long delay on day one of the Genesis Invitational where yet again, Scottie Scheffler has stumbled out of the gates, playing his first 10 holes in five-over par before darkness halted play yesterday.

The majority of golf fans will have assumed his slow start in Phoenix, where he sat tied for 89^th and 10 off the lead after round one, would be a bit of a one off given we had to go back to his missed cut at the St Jude in 2022 for the last time he'd started so tardily but he trailed by 10 again last week at Pebble Beach after the opening day.

Once was a bit odd and twice was bizarre so see him start so slowly yet again, is extremely strange and he's now breaking his own unwanted records!

Scottie Scheffler's worst 10-hole starts to a PGA Tour event

Today at Riviera, +5
World no. 1 player & 4-time major champ

2014 Byron Nelson, +4
As 17 year old amateur

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) February 20, 2026

He's making a bit of a fist of it today and at the time of writing he's just finished his opening round in +3 but for now, I'm turning my attention to the DP World Tour, where we've reached the halfway stage of the Kenya Open. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:25.

Casey Jarvis -13 4.94/1
Frederic Lacroix -13 6.611/2
Angel Ayora -11 5.79/2
Hennie Du Plessis -11 9.617/2
Ricardo Gouveia -11 22.021/1
Francesco Laporta -10 25.024/1
Davis Bryant -10 50.049/1
Thriston Lawrence -9 19.018/1
Antoine Rozner -9 36.035/1
Jacob Skov Olesen -9 38.037/1
-9 and 70.069/1 bar

Although Karen is a venue where low scores are possible, and a number of players made up a lot of ground today, history tells us we should be concentrating on the leading pack.

In the last 22 years, there have been 14 72-hole events at Karen and all 14 winners have been inside the top six places at halfway and Guido Migliozzi, who won this event here on the first occasion is was promoted to the DP World Tour from the HotelPlanner Tour in 2019, is the only one of the 14 to be as far as five strokes back after 36 holes.

As many as six of the 14 were leading or tied for the lead and five of the 14 victors sat second at this stage.

South Africa's Casey Jarvis heads the market narrowly, but he was very poor in-contention at the Mauritius Open just before Christmas and he fell away on home soil on the Sunshine Tour only last week.

Sitting in sixth and only three back with 18 to play, he shot 73 in the third and final round and we may have seen a chink in the armour today too.

Already matched at a low of 2.245/4, Jarvis looked like establishing a clear advantage to take into the weekend, but he played his last five holes of round two in two-over par.

I like the chances of the co-leader, Frederic Lacroix, who was an impressive winner of the Danish Golf Championship in August 2024.

He was extremely disappointing over the weekend in this event 12 months ago when he finished 50^th having sat eighth and only two off the lead at halfway but there's still enough juice in his price of 6.611/2 given the course stats and the fact that he's the only DP World Tour winner in the top five and that he's generally a 9/25.50 chance on the High Street.

As much as I like the Frenchman's chances, the man to beat looks is the highly promising 21-year-old Spaniard, Angel Ayora, who would be clear already if he'd have putted slightly better today.

Ayora, who was a well-backed 12/113.00 shot before the off, will win soon on the DP World Tour and he looks like a player destined for the very top, so I couldn't let him go unbacked given how close he is to the lead.

Despite the course stats, pre-event pick, Thriston Lawrence, is close enough given his class and experience and I've also thrown a few pounds at Ryan Van Velsen at a triple-figure price.

I've been a fan of Van Velsen's for a few years now and I wouldn't want to miss out at such a juicy price if he did get off the mark on the DP World Tour this week.

He traded at odds-on at the Alfred Dunhill Championship in December 2024, where he finished second after finding water on the 72^nd hole, one week after I'd put him up in the Find me a 100 Column in the Nedbank at 400.0399/1.

I've had my eye on him ever since and he's capable of going low enough tomorrow to nuzzle in on proceedings given he's only four back at halfway.

With poor weather forecasted, the third round starts early tomorrow with the lice coverage on Sky Sports kicking off at 6:30 in the UK.

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