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Matsuyama's record suggests he'll be tough to beat
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Hovland chanced at a juicy price
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09:00 - February 8, 2026
The two-time former winner, Hideki Matsuyama, has hit the front with a round to go at the Phoenix Open but with four players a stroke behind in tied second and a further four two back in a tie for sixth, we look set for an exciting finish at TPC Scottsdale. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:50.
Hideki Matsuyama -13 4.131/10
Si Woo Kim -12 6.86/1
Maverick McNealy -12 7.413/2
Nicolai Hojgaard -12 10.519/2
Ryo Hisatsune -12 15.529/2
Matt Fitzpatrick -11 16.015/1
Jake Knapp -11 16.531/2
Michael Thorbjornsen -11 17.533/2
Akshay Bhatia -11 25.024/1
John Parry -10 90.089/1
Viktor Hovland -9 70.069/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -9 90.089/1
Chris Gotterup -9 90.089/1
Min Woo Lee -9 110.0109/1
Pierceson Coody -9 120.0119/1
Scottie Scheffler -8 32.031/1
-8 and 280.0279/1 bar
Brooks Koepka won the 2021 edition of the Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale from five back with 18 to play and Kyle Stanley trailed by eight back in 2012 but he was helped considerably by the collapse of the six-stroke third round leader, Spencer Levin, who shot 75 on Sunday. Most of the winners here are much closer to the lead.
The last 30 winners at TPC Scottsdale have sat tied eighth or better with a round to go and 24 of them sat tied fourth or better.
Koepka and Stanley are the only two winners to be more than four strokes off the lead and 26 of the last 30 winners have been within three with 18 to play. Not great stats for Scottie Scheffler fans. He looks to have too much to do from five adrift.
A case can be made for any of the eight players within two of the leader and the tournament is clearly wide open with 18 to play but I'm happy to stick with yesterday's in-play pick, Matsuyama.
We need to go all the way back to Kenny Perry in 2009 to find the last player to convert a one-stroke 54-hole lead at Scottsdale and the last six to lead by one through three rounds have all been beaten.
That's a negative for the leader and so too is his tee-game.
After three rounds, Matsuyama ranks as poorly as 52nd for Driving Accuracy and 62nd for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee so he clearly needs to improve with his driver but he's still the most likely winner given his incredible record when leading after three rounds.
Matsuyama finished second at the Japan PGA Championship having led by four with 18 to play back in 2013 but he's been immaculate ever since.
Since that day, he's held a clear lead with 18 to play all over the world on various Tours and in events ranging from standard Japan Tour events, through PGA Tour events and WGC events, to the US Masters in 2021, and he has a 100% record, converting all 10 of his 54-hole leads.
That's a ridiculously strong record and one that will give the 33-year-old belief when he steps onto the first tee.
Matsuyama is a perfectly fair price at 3/14.00 given his incredible record when leading but I have chanced one from slightly off the pace - the world number 16, Viktor Hovland.
Trailing by four, Hovland has it all to do but he won the Dubai Desert Classic four years ago having trailed by six with 18 to play and he shot 62 in round four of the BMW Championship to win by two having trailed by three in 2023.
Hovland ranks number one for Putting Average after three rounds, and he looks a sporting bet at 70.069/1.
Back Viktor Hovland
17:10 - February 7, 2026
After a bogey-free two-under-par third round at the Qatar Masters, the first and second round leader, pre-event 18.017/1 pick, Patrick Reed, leads by two with a round to go but it really should have been three. He missed a birdie putt from inside four feet at the last. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:00.
Patrick Reed -14 1.875/6
Jacob Skov Olesen -12 10.09/1
Daniel Hillier -11 8.615/2
Angel Ayora -11 9.617/2
Oliver Lindell -10 26.025/1
Joakim Lagergren -10 46.045/1
Gregorio De Leo -10 70.069/1
David Micheluzzi -10 90.089/1
Calum Hill -9 75.074/1
Antoine Rozner -9 90.089/1
-9 and 120.0119/1 bar
According to the market, Daniel Hillier is the biggest danger to the leader but as highlighted yesterday, his record in-contention isn't great, and he was disappointing for much of round three before birdies at 15 and 16 tidied up a scruffy card so I'm far from convinced he's one to go to war with.
Yesterday's in-play pick, Jacob Skov Olesen, also finished nicely with a five-under-par back nine but he shot one-over on the front and it will be interesting to see how he handles playing with the prolific leader in the final two-ball tomorrow.
The 2024 Amateur Champion loves a links like test, and he looks like a winner-in-waiting but he's yet to win as a pro and that has to be considered a bit of a negative.
Of the closest challengers, the 21-year-old Spaniard, Angel Ayora, arguably has the most scope and may well transpire to being Reed's biggest challenger, but he's putted poorly over the last two days and that could cost him.
After ranking ninth for Putts Per GIR when shooting 66 on Thursday, he's ranked 56th and 48th in rounds two and three.
Of those sitting in a tie for fifth and four back, two look worth siding with modestly.
Joakim Lagergren lost his way a bit after hitting the front after six holes today but he's clearly enjoying the venue, and he could well bounce back tomorrow.
When he was beaten by Rory McIlroy in a playoff at the Irish Open last year, he shot 66 on Sunday having trailed by four with a round to go. He'd led the event at halfway by a stroke before a 73 on Saturday saw him slip down the leaderboard. Could lightning strike twice after today's 73 at Doha?
He also lost in a playoff here in 2017 when he shot 66 on Sunday having trailed by five with a round to go.
Back Joakim Lagergren
I've also had a tiny bet on the 2024 BMW International Open runner-up, David Micheluzzi, who just looks too big at the price.
The Aussie shot 65 on Sunday at the Dubai Desert Classic on Sunday last year to climb into eighth place from outside the top 30 so he may not be the forlorn hope the market suggests but when all is said and done, it's very hard to look past the leader and he looks very fairly priced.
Back David Micheluzzi
Ernie Els won the 2005 edition of the Qatar Masters having sat tied 10th and five back with a round to go and four Doha winners have trailed by three strokes, but every other winner has been within two with a round to go and third round leaders have a very good record.
As many as 16 of the 26 winners have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go (62%) and it's impossible to argue with Reed's record given he's converted six of eight clear 54-hole leads previously and that he also won the LIV Golf Dallas event last year having led with 18 to play.
12:00 - February 7, 2026
The pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, recovered nicely in round two of the Phoenix Open yesterday after an horrific start on Thursday.
Matched at as short as 2.9215/8 when he birdied his first hole of the week, the world number one has been matched at as high as 80.079/1 but after a six-under-par 65 on Friday afternoon, which was eight strokes better than Thursday morning's horror show, he still trails by seven. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 11:50.
Ryo Hisatsune -11 7.26/1
Hideki Matsuyama -10 3.8514/5
Chris Gotterup -8 12.523/2
Pierceson Coody -8 19.018/1
Si Woo Kim -7 15.014/1
Sahith Theegala -7 22.021/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -7 24.023/1
Akshay Bhatia -7 46.045/1
John Parry -7 70.069/1
Maverick McNealy -6 36.035/1
Jake Knapp -6 38.037/1
Scottie Scheffler -4 11.010/1
-6 and 50.049/1 bar
Given he trails by as many as seven strokes, with plenty of traffic to pass, Scheffler looks short at just 10/111.00, but he was nine back at halfway when he won the event for a first time four years ago and he's not the only winner to be off the pace at halfway.
Since 2017, three men have lost in extra time having trailed by six at halfway, the 2020 and 2021 winners, Webb Simpson and Brooks Koepka, trailed by four and five strokes and Koepka was seven back at this stage when he won the first of his two titles in 2015.
Add in the fact that the 2010 and 2012 winners, Hunter Mahan and Kyle Stanley, were both seven adrift at halfway and it's quite clear that we can take a chance on someone off the pace at this stage.
With that in mind, I've chanced a couple of players trailing by six in a tie for 19th at huge odds.
Norway's Kristoffer Reitan finished second at the Hainan Classic in April last year on the DP World Tour having sat tied for 27th and six back at halfway and he won the Soudal Open a month later having trailed by nine with 18 to play! And just to show that wasn't a complete fluke, he finished second in the Austrain Open the following week having trailed by eight with a round to go.
Back Kristoffer Reitan
I was happy to throw a few pounds at Reitan at a big price, and I was equally happy to chance Brian Campbell at even bigger given he won twice on the PGA Tour last year in low scoring events - the Mexico Open and the John Deere Classic.
Back Brian Campbell
Although it's a tournament in which we can clearly speculate at halfway, I can't get away from the two-time winner, Hideki Matsuyama, who looks a very fair price at almost 3/14.00.
Back Hideki Matsuyama
His fellow countryman, Ryo Histasune, can't be dismissed given he's in superb form and that he's already won the Open de France on the DP World Tour, but Matsuyama is clearly the man to beat.
The prolific 2021Masters winner is bidding to win his 12th PGA Tour title, his 22nd worldwide title and his third Phoenix Open.
He trailed by three at this stage when he won here for the first time 10 years ago and he was trailing by a stroke when he defended in 2017, so he'll be comfortable enough where he sits this time around.
17:40 - February 6, 2026
The second round of the Phoenix Open is underway and currently live on Sky Sports, and I'll be back tomorrow with a look at that event once they've reached the halfway stage but for now, I'm going to concentrate on the Qatar Masters on the DP Tour, where the in-form American, Patrick Reed, leads. Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 17:30.
Patrick Reed -12 2.8415/8
Joakim Lagergren -11 11.010/1
Daniel Hillier -10 6.05/1
Richard Sterne -10 27.026/1
Angel Ayora -9 11.521/2
Matt Wallace -9 13.525/2
Ewen Ferguson -9 21.020/1
Jacob Skov Olesen -8 55.054/1
Kata Kaneko -8 75.074/1
Jesper Svensson -7 55.054/1
Grant Forrest -7 55.054/1
Hennie Du Plessis -7 60.059/1
-7 and 90.089/1 bar
Leading by a stroke, Reed looks a fair price at around 15/82.88, although he may get bigger before he tees off tomorrow.
He led the Dubai Desert Classic by the same margin at the same stage two weeks ago and he drifted form 3/14.00 to 7/24.50 in-between rounds two and three before going on to win by four.
As highlighted in the preview, Reed ticked a lot of boxes before the off and having won the Dubai Desert Classic comfortably two weeks ago, before trading at odds-on in Bahrain last week where he was beaten in extra time, despite starting the tournament slowly (sat 58th after round one and 22nd at halfway, trailing by 10), he may prove tough to beat.
Following his victory in Dubai, Reed has now won six of the 12 72-hole events he's led or co-led at halfway, as well as winning the 54-hole LIV Golf Dallas event last year, where he led after two rounds.
It's difficult to see Reed failing due to pressure but he may suffer some mental fatigue over the weekend, and clear 36-hole leaders have a poor record at Doha.
We've had a clear leader at halfway 20 times since the tournament was first played in 1998 and 16 of them got beat so this isn't an easy place to make the running.
Henrik Stenson, who was tied for the lead after round one 20 years ago is the only wire-to-wire winner in the events history and when Paul Lawrie converted a 36-hole lead for the second time (won the 1999 edition by seven having led by two at halfway), in 2012, the event was reduced to 54 holes.
The only other man to kick on and win having held a clear advantage at halfway is Adam Scott, 2002.
That's not great news for Reed backers but it is perhaps worth noting that Lawrie, Stenson and Scott, like Reed, are all major champions.
Louis Ossthuizen, in 2009, is the only major winner to lead at halfway at Doha and lose.
The market is possibly being a bit dismissive of the man in second, Joakim Lagergren, given he's performed admirably in contention of late.
The diminutive Swede, who had his caddie's strength to the thank for his par at the second today, pushed Rory McIlroy all the way in the Irish Open last year, before eventually losing in a playoff, but this is the seventh time he's entered the weekend trailing by one and so far he's finished fourth, fourth, 12th, third, fifth and 31st.
Daniel Hillier is the man the market considers to be the biggest danger to Reed, but his record in-contention is pretty poor.
When he won the British Masters in 2023 (his sole DP World Tour title to date) he began round four in 11th place, three off the lead, and trading at 90.089/1 so expectations weren't high.
He's been leading or within two strokes of the lead at halfway 13 times and second (once) is his best finish.
He led here by two in 2023 after 36 holes and finished 16th and as recently as last October he finished 38th at the Genesis Championship having been tied at the top after 36 holes.
He may well perform far better this weekend and claim his second title, but he makes no appeal at 5/16.00.
It's only a matter of time of time before the hugely promising Spanish youngster, Angel Ayora, wins his first title. He looks a fair price at more than 10/111.00 and the former winner, Ewen Ferguson, is an interesting contender given he sat tied fifth and three off the lead when he won here in 2022.
I'm a little bit miffed not to be onboard Denmark's Jacob Skov Olesen from the get-go given I mentioned him in the Find Me a 100 Winner column, so I've had a small bet on him at halfway at 60.059/1 but other than that, I'm going to see what tomorrow brings.
Back Jacob Skov Olesen