The Punter's In-Play Blog: Novak and Griffin three clear

• Tough tournament to weigh up now

• Leaders look fairly price

• Japanese pair viable alternative to the leaders

09:15 - April 27, 2025

There's just one round to go at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and Andrew Novak and Ben Griffin have edged three strokes clear of the rest after shooting an 11-under-par 61 in yesterday's Fourball format. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:10 ahead of today's tougher Foursomes final round.

Novak/Griffin -27 1.981/1
Hisatsune/Kanaya -24 9.617/2
Knapp/Capan -24 14.013/1
Hojgaard/Hojgaard -23 15.014/1
Salinda/Velo -23 32.031/1
McIlroy/Lowry -22 8.27/1
Davis/Svensson -22 46.045/1
List/Norlander -22 50.049/1
-21 and 80.079/1 bar

This a tough event to weigh up with 18 to play.

Jonas Blixt and Can Smith successfully converted a four-stroke lead in the inaugural staging in this pairs format in 2017 and Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantley had the event all sewn up when they led by five three years ago but this is the first time that any pairing has taken a three-stroke lead into round four and three of the last four pairs to lead after 54 holes have failed to convert.

The 2018 winners, Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy, came from five back with 18 to play so there's definitely an argument for backing a pairing with ground to make up and the defending champs, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, who trail by five, are the obvious candidates but I'm happy to swerve them at just 7/18.00.

In individual stroke play tournaments on the PGA Tour this century, 120 men have led by three and 64 have gone on to win, so it could be argued that odds of around evens look about right for Novak and Griffin but it's a price I'm more than happy to ignore.

Both men have had multiple chances to get across the line in individual events without success but it's impossible to gauge how they'll contend as a pair.

If forced to make a play, I'd be backing the Ryo Hisatsune/Takumi Kanaya pairing at odds in excess of 8/19.00 but I'm more than happy to leave the event alone and wait for better opportunities.

09:00 - April 26, 2025

The third round of the Hainan Classic is ongoing but I'm ignoring that event for now to concentrate on the Zurich Classic of New Orleans where the first-round leaders, Isaiah Salinda and Kevin Velo, are still in front after the pair posted a very respectable three-under-par 69 in the much trickier Foursomes format yesterday. Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 8:50.

Salinda/Velo -17 8.615/2
Novak/Griffin -16 4.57/2
Hojgaard/Hojgaard -15 5.79/2
Bridgeman/Phillips -14 16.531/2
Hisatsune/Kanaya -13 26.025/1
Taylor/Skinns -13 70.069/1
-12 and 9.28/1 bar

As I looked at where the previous eight winners were positioned after the opening round, it makes sense to check out where they were at halfway and as you can see below, the 2018 winners, Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy, are the only victors to be more than four strokes off the lead and most winners have been up with the pace at this stage.

2017 - Jonas Blixt and Cameron Smith - Tied first
2018 - Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy - 25^th, trailing by seven
2019 - Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer - Tied first
2020 - Event Cancelled
2021 - Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith - Seventh, trailing by four
2022 - Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay - Led by a stroke
2023 - Nick Harding and David Riley - Fourth, trailing by two
2024 - Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry - Tied first

The three pairs that were beaten in a playoff sat 14^th, trailing by five, fifth and three back, and 26^th and four off the lead.

There were a couple of shocks yesterday. Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama has sat tied for third after round one but they shot 75 yesterday to miss the cut and the defending champs, Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy, let a great start slip.

Having put themselves in a commanding position after they'd played their first 12 holes in six-under-par, Lowry and McIlroy were matched at just 2.89/5 as they trailed by just two strokes but after playing their final six holes in three-over, they now sit tied for 16^th and six off the lead.

The pair are still trading at less than 9/110.00 but they have an awful lot to do today to get back on track.

We're back to the Fourball format today so the scoring will be low again and Ben Griffin and the bang-in-form, Andrew Novak, who traded at odds-on last week to win the RBC Heritage, are the team to beat according to the market.

They shot a sensational six-under-par 66 in the trickier format yesterday to get to within a stroke of the leaders, but they look short enough at 7/24.50.

Although pre-event picks, Ryan Fox and Garrick Higgo have missed the cut, I was pleased to see Brice Garnett and Sepp Straka and Nico Echavarria and Max Greyserman make it through.

Garnett and Straka sit tied for seventh and five off the lead and Echavarria and Greyserman are alongside McIlroy and Lowry in a tie for 16^th.

I should probably just leave the event alone for now and see what round three brings but the Canadian pairing of Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin look very fairly priced at around 33/134.00 given they were the only pair to match Novak and Griffin's 66 yesterday.

They sit alongside Garnett and Straka in the big group tied for seventh and I was happy to chance them modestly at 36.035/1.

16:30 - April 25, 2025

It's been a very disappointing day in China.

My two selections in the Hainan Classic, Haotong Li, and 200.00199/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Kristoffer Reitan, were still in front when the first round concluded after play resumed this morning but Li shot three-over-par in round two, and now sits tied for 27^th and six off the lead, held by Sean Crocker on -9, and Reitan, who needs to finish his second round in the morning, looks like he may even miss the cut!

Currently five-over-par through 12 holes of his second round and tied for 48^th, he needs to get his skates on tomorrow to play rounds three and four.

With both my men struggling and with no live coverage, I'm rapidly losing interest in an event mainly staged when I'm asleep!

I'll update on the event again tomorrow afternoon or evening if they catch up and get round three finished and I get involved.

09:25 - April 25, 2025

PGA Tour rookies, Isaiah Salinda and Kevin Velo, who were generally 380.0379/1 chances before the off, posted a 14-under-par 58 in round one of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans yesterday but the market favours the Hojgaard twins, Nicolai and Rasmus, who shot 59 in the Four-ball format.

The Danes sit alone in second, two clear of the rest.

Salinda and Velo's 58 was a new tournament record and they're now available to back at around 18.017/1 on the Exchange and that looks a reasonable price given two of the last three winning pairs were tied for the lead after round one.

There have been eight previous renewals in this format and the winning pairings have been position as follows after the opening round.

2017 - Jonas Blixt and Cameron Smith - Third, trailing by one
2018 - Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy - 21^st, trailing by five
2019 - Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer - 17^th, trailing by four
2020 - Event Cancelled
2021 - Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith - Third, trailing by one
2022 - Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay - Tied first
2023 - Nick Harding and David Riley - 14^th, trailing by three
2024 - Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry - Tied first

There have been three playoffs, in 2017, 2021 and 2024, and the losing playoff protagonists have sat 19^th, trailing four, third and one off the lead, and 44^th and five back, so no team has won or made it to extra time having been more than five strokes adrift through round one.

If that trend is to continue, the defending champs, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, who sit tied for 28^th and six off the lead, are too far back already but I'm far from convinced it's that simple.

Today's format is Foursomes which is far and away the tougher of the two formats used this week, when the teams play alternative shots using one ball.

The scoring will be a lot higher today and any weaknesses will be exposed.

Having backed four pairings before the off, including my Find Me a 100 Winner fancies, Matt NeSmith and Will Chandler, who were seven-under-par after eight yesterday but finished on -8, I'm tempted to leave the event alone and see what today brings but I've had a very small bet on the Hojgaard twins who are just too bit at 5.95/1.

They're bound to know each other's game better than most pairings and they're no bigger than 9/25.50 on the High Street.

I'll take another look at the Zurich at halfway tomorrow and I'll be back later today to assess the situation in China where the second round of the Hainan Classic is still ongoing.

11:20 - April 24, 2025

It's understandable that the first women's major of the season - the Chevron Championship - has been given priority, but it's very disappointing to have no live coverage on Sky of this week's DP World Tour event in China - the inaugural edition of the Hainan Classic - but it's been a nice start for Matt Cooper and I.

Matt's each-way fancy, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, is in a three-way tie for the lead with my pre-event fancy, Haotong Li, and my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Kristoffer Reitan, but the man to beat according to the market, is Denmark's Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, who could yet end up being the first-round leader.

Having been drawn AM-PM, my pair and Aphibarnrat have completed their first rounds, but Neergaard-Petersen had reached five-under-par for the day and just one off their lead with still five holes to play when play was suspended for the day due to dangerous weather.

I'm going to leave the event alone for now and see how rounds one and two pan out and I'll be back in the morning to look at the state of play on the PGA Tour, when round one of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans will be all done and dusted.

I've linked my preview and Dave Tindall's each way column for that event above and there's still time to get with Dave's first round leader fancies here.

Hainan Classic Pre-Event Selection:
Haotong Li @ 15.529/2

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Pre-Event Selection:
Max Greyserman / Nico Echavarria @ 38.037/1
Ryan Fox / Garrick Higgo @ 50.049/1
Sepp Straka / Brice Garnett @ 85.084/1

In-Play Picks:
Rasmus and Nicolai Hojgaard @ 5.95/1
Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor @ 36.035/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Column Picks:
Kristoffer Reitan @ 200.0199/1
Will Chandler / Matt NeSmith @ 500.0499/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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