The Punter's In-Play Blog: Si Woo sets the pace at Harbour Town

• Calamitous start to round four in China

• Chasers chanced in the RBC Heritage

• Leader looks fairly priced at the Corales

---

08:00 - April 20, 2025

Play is underway in the fourth round of the Volvo China Open, and that event is currently live on Sky Sports.

It's been a calamitous start by all the leaders and it's impossible to call as they make the turn, but my attention is now drawn to the two PGA Tour events - the RBC Heritage and the Corales Puntacana Championship - where there's just one round to go at each tournament.

I'll start with the main event, the RBC Heritage, where the 2018 runner-up, Si Woo Kim, has hit the front. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:40.

Si Woo Kim -15 4.3100/30
Justin Thomas -14 4.03/1
Andrew Novak -14 8.07/1
Maverick McNealy -13 10.09/1
Tommy Fleetwood -12 15.014/1
Brian Harman -12 21.020/1
Scottie Scheffler -11 11.521/2
Russell Henley -11 36.035/1
Patrick Cantlay -10 48.047/1
Keegan Bradley -10 170.0169/1
Mackenzie Hughes -10 190.0189/1
Cam Davis -10 230.0229/1
-9 and 240.0239/1 bar

The last two Heritage winners, Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick, both led by a stroke with 18 to play and Stewart Cink also won from the front four years ago but he was five strokes clear.

Webb Simpson was tied for the lead with three others after 54 holes when he won here five years ago so four of the last five winners were leading or tied for the lead after 54 holes but off the pace winners are common at Hilton Head.

Trading at 22.021/1 and trailing by three in a tie for ninth, Jordan Spieth shot 66 in round four in 2022 before beating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff and prior to Simpson's victory in 2020, we hadn't seen a 54-hole leader convert since 2012. And like Spieth three years ago, the winner had come from outside the final pairing every time.

CT Pan, in 2019, was the seventh winner in-a-row to come from at least a couple of strokes adrift and although he was quite close to the lead compared to some winners, he was still unfancied and a 36.035/1 chance after three rounds.

Since Carl Pettersson converted from the front in 2012, and prior to Webb's win in 2020, the winners had trailed by four, four, four, three, four, six and two strokes.

In addition to the seven results before 2020, Brandt Snedeker beat Luke Donald in a playoff in 2011, having trailed by six after 54 holes, but Cink easily trumps them all.

Back in 2004, when wining the second of his three titles, he came from an incredible nine shots back to win!

With that in mind, I'm happy to throw a few pounds at a couple of players from five back - the US Ryder Cup captain, Keegan Bradley, and the two-time Rocket Mortgage Classic winner, Cam Davis, who's simply too big at 250.0249/1.

In search of his eighth PGA Tour title, and his fourth in four years, Bradley has won three times previously from off the pace on a Sunday and he too looks too big at getting on for 200/1201.00.

Over at the Corales Puntacana Championship, the 36-hole leader, Joel Dahmen, has maintained his advantage of three strokes following a one-under-par 71. Here's the latest state of play there with prices to back at 7:45.

Joel Dahmen -17 2.01/1
Chan Kim -14 8.27/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -14 9.417/2
Garrick Higgo -14 10.09/1
Vince Whaley -13 19.018/1
Jeremy Paul -13 23.022/1
Ben Martin -13 30.029/1
Keith Mitchell -12 26.025/1
-11 and 80.079/1 bar

Dahmen, whose sole victory to date on the PGA Tour was in this event four years ago, is the 120^th player to take a three-stroke lead into the final round of a 72-hole stroke play PGA Tour event this century and he's bidding to be the 65^th to convert.

That's a strike rate of 54%, suggesting Dahmen's a fair price at even money but if the recent trend is anything to go by, he's a great price.

Since Taylor Pendrith shot 76 to finish fifth at the 2021 Bermuda Championship, 10 of the 12 players to lead by three went on to take the title.

Dahmen was tied for the lead in 2023 before he shot 70 in round four to win by a stroke and if he can post another two-under-par again today that may well be enough.

This is the tenth edition of the Corales and Dahmen is bidding to become the fifth winner to be leading or tied for the lead with a round to go but the in-running trends aren't straightforward.

The last three clear 54-hole leaders have all been beaten and Billy Horschel was three off the lead with 18 to play when he won 12 months ago, although he was the first winner to be any further than two adrift through 54 holes so we're yet to see anyone take the title from well off the pace.

Dahmen looks fairly priced at worst but I can watch him win at that price having missed the 7/18.00 on Friday (see Friday's post below) so I'm going to continue to cheer on my pre-event fancy, Garrick Higgo, who sits tied second and I haven't given up on my 240.0239/1  Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Ben Martin, who sits tied for fifth and four behind Dahmen.

---

11:10 - April 19, 2025

The third round of the Volvo China Open has just finished and having looked like developing into a three-man tussle on Sunday between home hero, Haotong Li, the recent Indian Open winner, Eugenio Chacarra, and the first round leader, Tapio Pulkkanen, who birdied the first three holes in round three to hit the front, we have a tight-looking leaderboard to assess with 18 to play.

Li has been matched at a low of 2.01/1, Chacarra 2.68/5, and Pulkkanen 3.412/5 but all three trade at much bigger prices now nine players are within four of the lead with a round to go.

The exchange market is still sorting itself out so here's the 54-hole leaderboard with the Sportsbook prices to back at 11:00.

Haotong Li -12 23/103.30
Eugenio Chacarra -12 13.525/2
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -11 9/25.50
Yannik Paul -10 9/110.00
Tapio Pulkkanen -10 9/110.00
Zecheng Dou -10 19/210.50
Jordan Smith -9 10/111.00
-8 and 60/161.00 bar

Although his play was a bit scrappy on the back nine today, I was happy to play Li at in excess of 5/23.50 on the Exchange given he has the support of the home crowd and that he has a very decent record when leading.

He's led or been tied for the lead on various Tours 12 times previously and he's gone on to win on seven occasions.

Li converted a two-stroke lead as recently as February at the Qatar Masters, he won the BMW International Open in extra time in 2022 on the previous occasion that he led with round to go on the DP World Tour, and he converted from the front at the prestigious Dubai Desert Classic back in 2018.

He came form behind to win this event in 2016 (won by three), but he was only two adrift with 18 to play and he was in search of his first victory on the DP World Tour, so the pressure he would have felt then would have been akin to leading a DP World Tour event on foreign soil.

Alongside Li, Chacarra is the biggest danger to the favourite but he's attempting to win back-to-back events and he's struggling with a thumb injury that affected his driving quite badly in round three.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat hasn't won for seven years but he beat Li in a playoff in China at the now defunct Shenzhen International ten years ago and he lost a playoff in Singapore a little over 12 months ago so he can't be ruled out.

Yannik Paul, who was matched at as short as 5.04/1 this morning, is hard to fancy after watching him miss a short birdie putt on 17 that would have seen him tie the lead before he made a meal of the last to record a bogey six and Pulkkanen is just too erratic to trust in-contention.

Zecheng Dou, who's a three-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, is still in it after his lucky break on 18 and England's Jordan Smith will be better suited to chasing than frontrunning so there are plenty of contenders.

Zecheng Dou gets a lucky break and is forced to play from a bridge #VolvoChinaOpen pic.twitter.com/0Z2fh7Zz18

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) April 19, 2025

This is the first time the Enhance Anting Golf Club has been used for a major tournament so we have no in-running trends to consider and we may well get someone win from off the pace but all things considered, Li looks fairly priced at anything over 2/13.00 given his record when leading.

Over on the PGA Tour at Hilton Head, the defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, was matched at just 2.226/5 to win the RBC Heritage when he birdied two of his first three holes in round two yesterday, but it all got a bit scruffy after that and he trails the first-round leader, Justin Thomas, by four at halfway. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:05.

Justin Thomas -12 3.7511/4
Russell Henley -10 7.613/2
Si Woo Kim -10 16.015/1
Tommy Fleetwood -9 13.012/1
Andrew Novak -9 34.033/1
Scottie Scheffler -8 5.85/1
Mackenzie Hughes -8 70.069/1
Collin Morikawa -7 17.016/1
Wyndham Clark -7 55.054/1
Maverick McNealy -7 60.059/1
Brian Harman -7 65.064/1
J.T Poston -7 65.064/1
Patrick Cantlay -6 42.041/1
-6 and 120.0119/1 bar

I appreciate that this tournament may have changed somewhat, now that it's a Signature Event, but Thomas' position looks precarious if history is anything to go by.

Stewart Cink was five clear at halfway when he won here four years ago, and Webb Simpson had led by a stroke when he took the title 12 months earlier but 12 of the last 14 winners were trailing by at least two strokes at halfway.

Scheffler sat tied for 10^th and three off the lead 12 months ago and the 2023 champ, Matt Fitzpatrick, had been tied for 18^th and six off the lead.

Those results are fairly typical here and year after year we see winners at Hilton Head come from off the pace after rounds two and three.

It's hard to belief looking at the quality names at the head of affairs but if history is to be believed, there's a chance that the winner isn't even listed above.

One such name is the 2023 winner, Fitzpatrick, who sits on -6, and I've backed him at a triple figure price, as well as the recent Valero Texas Open winner, Brian Harman, at 65.064/1.

Harman ranks third for Scrambling and fifth for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at the midway point and Fitzpatrick ranks fourth and eighth for those two metrics.

They've been the two key stats at this venue of late so I'm happy to play those two at juicy prices and reassess tomorrow.

Over at the Corales Puntacana Championship, yesterday's line on Joel Dahman has come back to haunt and I am indeed questioning why I didn't back him at 7/18.00, now that he leads by four at halfway.

Here's the latest state of play there with prices to back at 11:05.

Joel Dahman -16 2.447/5
Michael Thorbjornsen -12 11.010/1
Charley Hoffman -12 13.012/1
Garrick Higgo -12 13.525/2
Keith Mitchell -11 11.521/2
Chan Kim -11 16.015/1
Dylan Wu -11 38.037/1
Matt Wallace -10 25.024/1
-10 and 34.033/1 bar

The last player to lead by four at the halfway stage of a PGA Tour event was Harman two weeks ago and he went on to win by three, despite shooting 72-75 over the weekend.

Following Harman's victory in Texas, 22 of the 50 players to lead a PGA Tour event by four strokes at halfway this century have now won.

That's a strike rate of 44% but if we take the imperious Tiger Woods out of those stats, the percentage drops from 44% to 38% and the leader starts to look fairly priced at best.

Looking specifically at this event, Dominic Bozzelli won the inaugural edition in 2016, having sat fifth and four off the lead at halfway, and Nate Lashley won the second edition having sat eighth and five back a year later.

Having been a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2016 and '17, it was elevated to PGA Tour status in 2018, and the first six PGA Tour winners were all within three strokes of the lead after 36 holes.

Of the six winners, three of them were in front at halfway, although both Matt Wallace in 2023 and Hudson Swafford in in 2020, lost their leads in round three before bouncing back in round four to win.

It appeared that the first two editions, on the Korn Ferry Tour, may have been anomalies and up with the pace was the place to be, but Billy Horschel won by two strokes 12 months ago having sat 12^th and seven off the lead at halfway.

All things considered, this is a tough event to evaluate and having missed the price on the leader yesterday, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and shout on my pre-event pick, Garrick Higgo, who sits in a tie for second.

---

09:00 - April 18, 2025

I can't be the only golf fan feeling somewhat fatigued after the conclusion of last week's incredible US Masters.

The whole week was absorbing enough but Sunday's finale was almost unbelievable, and I don't think I've yet processed Rory's performance on Sunday in full.

From the double-bogey start, the awful pitch on two, that was followed by the brilliant chip on three that lead to a birdie to turn the whole day around, to the the imperious tee-shot on four. We than witnessed that remarkable break on five off the tee, the outrageous and reckless nine-iron through the trees on seven, and the brilliant birdie on nine. And that's just his front nine!

Getting up early on Thursday to watch the live coverage of the DP World Tour in China, around a course I've never seen before, was never going to happen and I can't pretend to have been overly enthusiastic about either of the PGA Tour events before the off either.

How do you follow last week's brilliance so soon? It was always going to be tough, but Rory's finish appears to have inspired some of the best players in the field at all three of this week's tournaments and all three are intriguingly poised already.

The second round of the Volvo China Open is well underway and I may be back later today to take a detailed look at halfway, but the home hero, Haotong Li, who won his national title eight years ago, has shot around the Enhance Anting Golf Club in style with an eight-under-par 63 this morning to hit the front.

Closing in on Li is the hugely promising Spaniard, Eugenio Chacarra, who won the Indian Open at the end of March, and the first-round leader, Tapio Pulkkanen, is currently alongside Li with nine to play. The event is live on Sky Sports.

Over on the PGA Tour, despite disappointing efforts at Augusta, Justin Thomas, Russell Henley and my 120.0119/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Wyndham Clark, have all bounced back brilliantly, to sit inside the top-four after round one of the RBC Heritage, but it's the defending champion and world number one, Scottie Scheffler, that's the man to beat after round one.

Thomas shows the way after a course record equalling ten-under-par 61 that should have been a 60. He missed from five feet for birdie at the last.

He's three clear of Henley and Scheffler on -7 and my man, Clark is alone in fourth on -6.

Thomas' lead of three strokes is the biggest this century around Harbour Town after round one but the 17 players that have led by one or two don't have a great record with only Peter Lonard, 20 years ago, going on to win. And he was a fortunate winner in the end.

Darren Clarke had led by six at halfway but shot 73-76 over the weekend to finish second.

I'm leaving that event alone for now, but I have got involved at the Corales Puntacana Championship, where the 2021 winner, Joel Dahman, leads by two after he shot a course record 10-under-par 62 yesterday afternoon.

A new course record @CoralesChamp @Joel_Dahmen leads by two in Puntacana! pic.twitter.com/wHbpiyhMmf

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 17, 2025

Dahmen is sharing favouritism with his good friend and pre-event favourite, Keith Mitchell, who sits alongside the 2023 winner, Matt Wallace, and my pre-event pick, Garrick Higgo, in a tie for second on eight-under-par.

Brice Garnett won the 2018 edition of the Corales wire-to-wire when it was still a Korn Ferry Tour event but the other four players to hold a clear lead after round one have all been beaten.

Dahmen is a class act and if he can back up yesterday's super 62 when he tees it up early in round two, I could be looking back at halfway and wondering why I didn't back him at around 7/18.00 but the one I like is last year's Myrtle Beach Classic winner, Chris Gotterup, who romped home by six at Myrtle Beach last May.

Gotterup, who was on my shortlist before the off, may have more scope than some of the frontrunners and trailing by just three, he's an interesting runner at around 20/121.00. 

---

Volvo China Open Pre-Event Selection:
Romain Langasque @ 48.047/1

In-Play Pick:
Haotong Li @ 3.613/5

Corales Puntacana Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Garrick Higgo @ 60.059/1

In-play Pick:
Chris Gotterup @ 21.020/1

RBC Heritage Pre-Event Selection:
Sepp Straka @ 40/141.00

In-Play Picks:
Brian Harman @65.064/1
Matt Fitzpatrick @ 130.0129/1
Keegan Bradley @ 180.0179/1
Cam Davis @ 250.0249/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Column here

---

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

---

Now read more golf previews and tips here