The Punter's In-Play Blog: Potgieter's lead cut to one

• German a huge danger to the leader

• Leading pair likely to feel the nerves

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11:05 - February 23, 2025

 

Having led the Mexico Open by four strokes at halfway, Aldrich Potgieter, was matched at as short as 1.684/6 during the third round but a scruffy finish has opened the door for the chasers. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:00.

Aldrich Potgieter -20 2.35/4
Brian Campbell -19 3.613/5
Stephan Jaeger -17 5.49/2
Alex Smalley -15 21.020/1
Aaron Rai -14 42.041/1
Ben Griffin -14 46.045/1
-13 and 170.0169/1 bar

Potgieter looked like taking a commanding lead into today's final round when he holed a 13-footer for birdie at the par five 14^th but he finished poorly after that.

After scrambling a pair of pars at 15 and 16, and a brilliant bogey at the par three 17th, he looked odds-on to pick up a shot on the easy par five 18^th after a great drive, but he ended up having to work hard again for par.

It wasn't a great finish by any means, and it's given encouragement to the few players within range but having backed him at halfway, I'm sticking with him today.

The first three winners of the event here before him were all in front with 18 to play and he's still the man to beat.

A stroke back in second is pre-event 600.0599/1 chance, Brian Campbell, and he's done magnificently to hang on to Potgieter's coattails.

In 27 previous events on the PGA Tour, his best finish is 12^th at the John Deere Classic and having spent most of his career on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he's made 158 starts over the last ten years, he's finished second five times but never tasted victory.

The 31-year-old will do well to continue to keep his nerves in check and although he trails by three, the leader's biggest threat could well be the man in third, Stephan Jaeger.

Famed for opening the 2016 Ellie Mae Classic with a 12-under-par 58, the 35-year-old German has won five times on the Korn Ferry Tour, and he got off the mark on the PGA Tour 11 months ago at the Houston Open, when he held a host of challengers at bay, including the world number one, Scottie Scheffler.

With course form figures reading 15-18-3, Jaegar was a well-fancied 28.027/1 chance before the off and if the leader does slip up, he's my idea of the most likely winner.

I was happy to have a stakes saver on Jaegar at 5.69/2.

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16:55 - February 22, 2025

 

Pre-event 85.084/1 chance, Jacques Kruyswijk, began the third round of the Magical Kenya Open trailing the leader, John Parry, by seven and trading at 50.049/1 but he'll begin tomorrow's fourth and final leading by one. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:45.

Jacques Kruyswijk -14 2.285/4
John Parry -13 2.6413/8
Deon Germishuys -10 22.021/1
Benjamin Hebert -9 36.035/1
-8 and 70.069/1 bar

I didn't expect much from the nervy Frenchman, Benjamin Hebert, who now has plenty to do after a four-over-par 75 around Muthaiga in round three but after his immaculate performance over the first two days, I really didn't see John Parry recording an over-par round today.

Hebert, who was trading at 14/115.00 after the round, had his six on the par five fourth changed to an eight, presumably for a penalty incurred before he played his second shot from the scrub right of the fairway.

He did quite a bit of 'gardening' before hacking it out and I suspect he may have moved the ball. Either way, he has it all to do tomorrow.

I'm going to stick with Parry, who I backed at halfway, for several reasons.

The leader will need to back up today's brilliant bogey-free seven-under-par 64 and it's never easy to back up a low one.

He also has an ordinary record when leading and he's bound to feel the pressure as he looks to win on the DP World Tour for the first time.

Kruyswijk has led or been tied for the lead with a round to go on the Sunshine Tour five times previously and he only converted once, when three clear at the Cape Town Open in 2016.

I'm slightly irritated to see Deon Germishuys in third place given he was one of my Find Me a 100 Winner selections in the event 12 months ago at 190.0189/1 and I may look to back him in running but I can see Parry bouncing back tomorrow and he looks like the value with 18 to play.

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07:55 - February 22, 2025

 

Those drawn early-late at the Mexico Open have been disadvantaged with the PM-AM wave averaging 138.07 over the first two days, compared to the 139.87 averaged by the AM-PM side of the draw and the 36-hole leaderboard is dominated by those that began the event on Thursday afternoon.

Brian Campbell, who trails by four, and Isiah Salinda, who's six off the lead, are the only two players inside the top seven places at halfway that kicked off the event on Thursday morning.

Having followed Thursday afternoon's six-under-par 66 with a ten-under-par 61 on Friday morning, 20-year-old, Aldrich Potgieter, leads the event by four and I can't be the only person ruing the fact that I didn't back him before the off.

The fourth-youngest player to shoot 61 or lower, just behind Tom Kim, Patrick Cantlay and Nick Dunlap!

Highlights from Aldrich Potgieter's course record-tying 61 at Vidanta Vallarta. pic.twitter.com/Q3puEd5Zp3

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 22, 2025

With his monstrous length and his experience on paspalum greens, the powerful South African looked a perfect fit for Vedanta but I was optimistically hoping he'd be a triple-figure price before the off so I could include him in the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

He has been matched at 100.099/1, but only for a fiver after play had started on Thursday, and he was generally a 70.069/1 chance before the off, after the early 85.084/1 was gobbled up on Monday.

With the benefit of hindsight, I really should have just taken the early offerings, but the question is now - is he value to kick on and convert for his first PGA Tour title at around 2/13.00? Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:50.

Aldrich Potgieter -16 2.8815/8
Stephan Jaeger -12 7.26/1
Brian Campbell -13 18.017/1
Aaron Rai -11 11.010/1
Akshay Bhatia -10 11.010/1
Ben Griffin -10 20.019/1
Isiah Salinda -10 50.049/1
-9 and 60.059/1 bar

This is only the fourth edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta but all the evidence we have points to the leader.

The first three winners here were all in front at this stage, so the track clearly suits the frontrunners.

Jon Rahm led by two in 2022, Tony Finau was one in front and last year's winner, Jake Knapp, was tied for the lead with the eventual runner-up, Sami Valimaki.

Add into the equation that 22 of the 47 four-stroke 36-hole leaders on the PGA Tour this century went on to win and an argument could be made that he should be nearer to even money than 2/13.00.

Anyone that witnessed his fourth round at the Nedbank in December might be wary to dive in at less than 2/13.00, but this looks a very different scenario.

He led by three with a round to go there and he was matched in-running at just 1.422/5 before he stumbled late on, but he'll have learnt from that experience, and this is a far easy and more suitable course for the big hitter.

He may well get into a bit of trouble somewhere along the way over the weekend, but this is an easy track for a man with as much power as Potgieter possess and the benign weekend forecast can only help.

He may have wilted in the heat of battle in his homeland in December, but he already knows how to get the job done given he won the Amateur Championship at the age of 17 (the second youngest winner in the history of the championship) and that he became the youngest ever winner on the Korn Ferry Tour when he won the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic in January last year.

He's no bigger than 7/42.75 on the High Street and even that looks big.

Stephan Jaeger, the Wyndham Championship winner, Aaron Rai, and the pre-event favourite, Akshay Bhatia, are obvious dangers but I was happy to back Potgieter at 3.211/5 last night and he still looks fairly priced at around 2.915/8.

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16:20 - February 21, 2025

 

After chipping in for a fortuitous birdie two at the par three 16^th, Frenchman, Benjamin Hebert, who was matched at between 300.0299/1 and 450.0449/1 before the off, birdied 17 and 18 to finish his second round in style this morning at the Magical Kenya Open.

Strong birdie-birdie-birdie finish for Benjamin Hebert sets up a FIVE shot lead #MKO2025 pic.twitter.com/ApU4mn48QZ

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 21, 2025

Matched at a low of 3.052/1, he led by five as he signed for his five-under-par 66. But it's England's John Parry who leads at halfway.

Teeing off in the tricky afternoon conditions, the pre-event 44.043/1 chance set about reeling in the leader and it was impossible not to be impressed with his composed second consecutive bogey-free round around tree-lined Muthaiga.

He looked in control of his game and his distance putting on the tricky greens was exceptional. He's already been matched at as short as even money and I'm not surprised. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:10 on Friday.

John Parry -14 2.0421/20
Benjamin Hebert -13 4.77/2
Jayden Schaper -9 11.010/1
Christofer Blomstrand -8 150.0149/1
-7 and 32.031/1 bar

The first-round co-leaders, Parry and Hebert, understandably dominate the market but last year's wire-to-wire winner, Darius van Driel, is the only first round leader or co-leader to win in 16 events at Muthaiga since 1996. This is definitely a venue where ground can be made up.

Jens Fahrbring lost a playoff here in 2018, having trailed by 10 at halfway, and the 1997 and 2001 Challenge Tour winners, Jorge Berendt and Ashley Roestaff, like two of the last three winners of this event, Ashun Wu and Jorge Campillo, sat five adrift after 36 holes. But it's very hard to look past the leader and odds-against look fair.

Parry hasn't led at the halfway stage of a DP World Tour event since he let a four-stroke lead slip at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship way back in 2010. But he was tied at the top through 36 holes when he won his first DP World Tour event a month earlier. He's been in incredible form in the last 12 months, winning three times on the HotelPlanner Tour and once on the DP World Tour, when he came from off the pace to claim the Mauritius Open just before Christmas.

His confidence will be sky high and his in-contention record is far better than Hebert's.

The 38-year-old Frenchman is still in search of his first DP World Tour title, and he appears to be getting worse in-the-mix.

Since October 2023, he's been leading or within one of the lead at halfway five times on various Tours and he's finished 18^th, fifth, fourth, 48^th and 10^th. He looks opposable.

Parry is odds-on across the board so he looks a very fair price, but if there is to be another off the pace winner, the 2023 winner, Campillo, could be the one.

Sitting in a tie for 14^th and nine off Parry's lead, the Spaniard will need help from the frontrunners, but he'll draw inspiration from the fact that he sat outside the top 20 and five shots back when he won here two years go. He's no bigger than 45/146.00 on the High Street so the 75.074/1 available on the Betfair Exchange is a decent price.

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 09:40 - February 21, 2025

 

The second round of the Magical Kenya Open is underway and I'll be back later with a look at the state of play there at the halfway stage.

Morning starter, John Parry, was tied for the lead with afternoon starter, Benjamin Hebert, after yesterday's opening round.

How it stands after the opening 18 holes at Muthaiga Golf Club #MKO2025

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 20, 2025

The morning starters enjoyed an advantage of 0.77 of a stroke over the afternoon wave yesterday and at the time of writing, Hebert, has just made a late move this morning with birdies at 16 and 17. He's -4 for the day through 17 holes, -12 for the tournament, and four in front of Parry. Can the Englishman respond this afternoon?

The last three PGA Tour events, and four of the last five, have been won by a European and over at the Mexico Open, England's Harry Hall, Germany's Jeremy Paul and Norway's Kris Ventura are all tied for the lead after round one on seven-under-par.

Although representing his mother's place of birth, Ventura's father is Mexican and he was born there too, so it's something of a home event for the 29-year-old.

This is the fourth time that the tournament has been hosted at Vidanta and so far, a fast start has been key.

The inaugural winner here, Jon Rahm, won wire-to-wire, the 2023 champ, Tony Finau, sat fourth after round one but led all the way after that and last year's winner, Jake Knapp was tied for the lead at halfway, having sat tied for 15^th and four off the lead after round one.  And like the first two winners, he held a clear lead with 18 to play.

After the first day's play, there are as many as 17 players within two of the trio at the top and it's 9/110.00 the field so it's wide open.

The pre-event favourite, Akshay Bhatia, who shot five-under-par to sit tied ninth is still the man to beat according to the market and he may well have caught a break with the draw.

The afternoon wave averaged 69.18 yesterday, compared to the 70.02 by the morning starters and the likes of Bhatia and co could get a shift on early today in the benign early conditions.

Having backed Bhatia before the off, I'm going to sit on my hands for now and I'll take another look at halfway.

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Mexico Open Pre-Event Pick:
Akshhay Bhatia @ 18.017/1

In-Play Picks:
Aldrich Potgieter @ 3.211/5
Stephan Jaeger @ 5.69/2

Magical Kenya Open Pre-Event Pick:
Eddie Pepperell @ 90.089/1

In-Play Picks:
John Parry @ 2.0811/10
Jorge Campillo @ 75.074/1

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