The Punter's In-Play Blog: All change at Torrey Pines

• Front two in search of their first PGA Tour titles

• Off the pace winners are common around the South Course

• Thomas the value with 18 to play

• Our Cheltenham offer is live! Get a completely free bet every weekend until the Festival

08:30 - February 16, 2025

With both men positioned inside the top four places at the halfway stage of the Genesis Invitational, hopes were high that Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy would be fighting out the finish around the South Course at Torrey Pines today and they are paired together in round four, but there's a sizable but.

Although Scheffler was matched at odds-on after he'd birdied the fifth to tie the lead with Davis Thompson, he never really got going and the writing was on the wall when he three-putted the par five sixth green from just 13 feet.

Both he and Rory putted poorly and having posted four-over-par and two over respectively, the pair sit tied for eighth and five off the lead with just 18 to play. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 08:20.

Patrick Rodgers -8 4.47/2
Denny McCarthy -7 5.59/2
Ludvig Aberg -6 4.216/5
Patrick Cantlay -4 21.020/1
Tommy Fleetwood -4 24.023/1
Tony Finau -5 26.025/1
Davis Thompson -4 32.031/1
Scotties Scheffler -3 14.5
Rory McIlroy -3 17.5
Justin Thomas -3 36.035/1
Maverick McNealy -3 60.059/1
Nico Echavarria -3 110.0109/1
Hideki Matsuyama -2 95.094/1
-2 and 300.0299/1 bar

We may not have got the desired final two-ball pairing of Rory and Scottie but we do have an intriguing leaderboard that's almost guaranteed to provide plenty of drama and we certainly can't dismiss the two big guns from five back if recent history is to be believed here.

Harris English converted a one-stroke 54-hole lead at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines last month, but he was the first third round leader to convert in five events there and since Justin Rose converted a three-stroke advantage in 2019, we've seen winners come from three, four and five (twice) strokes adrift.

Brandt Snedeker has won here twice, in 2012 and 2016, and he trailed by seven and six strokes respectively after 54 holes so we can't rule out an off the pace winner, although the benign weather forecast will help the frontrunners.

The surprise leader, Patrick Rodgers, has been here before. He was tied for the lead at the Farmers Insurance Open with a round to go back in 2017 but a final round of 72 around the South Course saw him finish fourth, beaten by four, and since then he's led or been tied for the lead three more times on the PGA Tour, but he failed to convert every time.

It's ten years and six days since Rodgers won his sole Korn Ferry Tour title but he was four back with a round to go on that occasion and he looks opposable today.

With rounds of 68, 70 and 71, the first-round leader, Denny McCarthy, is still on the premises but like Rodgers, he has just one Korn Ferry Tour title to his name and he's also in search of his first victory on the PGA Tour.

To his credit, he did absolutely nothing wrong when losing a playoff to Viktor Hovland at the Memorial Tournament in 2023 and he was also beaten in extra time by Akshay Bhatia at the Texas Open last year, but I can see why the man in third, Ludvig Aberg, heads the market.

Trailing Rodgers by two, the classy Swede is two clear of the rest and if one of the front three is going to prevail, he's the most likely to do so but it's extremely hard to imagine that none of the nine high class players on -4 and -3 make a big move from off the pace.

Scottie and Rory are the obvious candidates but three players in-the-mix have a habit of winning from off the pace - Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas and the defending champ, Hideki Matsuyama, who sits on -2.

In addition to winning the Nedbank Golf Challenge from six back in 2019 and three off the lead in 2021, Fleetwood finished runner-up in the 2018 US Open having sat 23^rd with 18 to play and he was beaten in extra time in the Shenzhen International ten years ago having trailed by eight so he can come with a late rally but Thomas has an even better record form off the pace.

Thomas has won three PGA Tour titles having trailed by four strokes with a round to go, he was three off the lead when he won the Players Championship in 2021 and when he won the US PGA Championship in 2022 (his last victory), he trailed by as many as seven strokes with 18 holes to play.

Generally a 22/123.00 chance and no bigger than 25/126.00 on the High Street, Thomas is my idea of the value with a round to go at 36.035/1 but don't dismiss the defending champ, Matsuyama.

The Japanese was six off the lead and trading at 170.0169/1 at Riviera last year but he went on to win by three and that wasn't a one off.

Matsuyama lost a playoff at the FedEx St Jude in 2021 having trailed by nine with 18 to play!

Trailing by six, and with a dozen men ahead of him, Matsuyama has plenty on his plate if he's to retain his title but he won't lack for belief given last year's result.

10:10 - February 15, 2025

After a tough day on Thursday, when the field of 72 averaged only 74.28 around the par 72 South Course at Torrey Pines, the sun poked out on Friday at the Genesis Invitational and the scoring improved by an average of 2.49 strokes.

Denny McCarthy, who finished birdie-eagle on day one to shoot 68, was one of only three men to break 70 on Thursday but it was a different story in round two.

As many as 11 players broke 70 and five players bettered McCarthy's 68.

Davis Thompson holds sway at halfway but having both shot five-under-par 67s on Friday, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are both inside the top four places heading into the weekend for the very first time on the PGA Tour.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:00.

Davis Thompson -8 6.611/2
Scotties Scheffler -7 2.3211/8
Denny McCarthy -6 17.5
Rory McIlroy -5 5.39/2
Ludvig Aberg -4 13.012/1
Patrick Rodgers -4 70.069/1
Nick Dunlap -3 90.089/1
Wyndham Clark -2 65.064/1
-2 and 110.0109/1 bar

Although leading, pre-event 160.0159/1 chance, Thompson, looks very short at around 5/16.00.

Since Tiger Woods kicked on to convert a two-stroke halfway lead at the Farmers Insurance Open here 12 years ago, 18 men have led or co led with two rounds to go at the South Course and Justin Rose in 2019, who led by three, is the only man to go on to win.

Thompson was an impressive winner of the John Deere Classic last year and it's only matter of time before he adds a second PGA Tour title but he's no value to do so this week with so many top-class players hot on his heels.

Scheffler shot 67 yesterday despite finding only five fairways and he's clearly Thompson's biggest danger but he's by no means the only threat.

McIlroy appears to have picked up from where he left off when winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am two weeks ago and Ludvig Aberg is a menace from four back.

It's extremely rare that we get to witness the very best in the world fighting out the finish on the PGA Tour, so this is a fabulous looking leaderboard that promises plenty, but as betting heats go it's a tough one to get involved in.

Given he's won nine of his last 18 events and that he only trails by a stroke, a strong argument can be made for taking odds-against about Scheffler, but one could equally argue that the in-form McIlroy looks a very fairly price at in excess of 4/15.00.

I'm in the Scheffler camp, with the hope that he can find a few more fairways today, but win or lose, I'm looking forward to what could be a stunning weekend at the South Course, and I'll be back again tomorrow to take a look at the state of play with a round to go.

14:10 - February 14, 2025

The opening round of the Genesis Invitational was a bit of a grind yesterday.

Wind and rain tested the field throughout the opening day, and it was reminiscent of an Open Championship on a dreich day in Scotland.

Rain or shine, the game goes on. pic.twitter.com/lQz2otEMPt

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 14, 2025

Rasmus Hojgaard and Adam Hadwin, who had both contended in Phoenix last week, shot rounds in the 80s and only 13 of the 72 players in the field at Torrey Pines broke par.

Having birdied the 17^th and eagled the last, Denny McCarthy is the early leader on four-under-par, but Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy still dominate the market.

The world number one, Scheffler, who drifted out to 9.08/1 when he missed the first fairway, was matched at as low as 2.68/5 before a disappointing finish that included a three-putt on the par five 18^th green saw him post -2 and McIlroy recovered nicely after a slow start to post a level par 72.

Trailing McCarthy by two in a tied for fourth, Scheffler is the firm favourite, shorting up from around 4.47/2 last night to 4.03/1 and McIlroy is an 8.27/1 chance with three rounds to go.

The weather is expected to be much the same as yesterday so it's going to be another day of hanging on rather than pressing forward today and I'm not in a hurry to get too involved, but I have added one more to the portfolio - Nico Echavarria.

The Colombian sits in a tie for seventh after his one-under-par 71 yesterday and he looks slightly big at a triple-figure price given how well he's been playing over recent months.

He ranked second for Driving Accuracy on day one and with the rough as thick as it is, finding the short grass off the tee at the South Course is going to be important this week.

I'll be back tomorrow once we've reached the halfway stage.

Pre-Event Picks:
Russell Henley @ 65.064/1
Keegan Bradley @ 80.079/1

In-Play Picks:
Nico Echavarria @ 120.0119/1
Scottie Scheffler @ 2.3611/8

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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