The Punter's In-Play Blog: Kirk leads with 18 to play

• Poor putting hinders world number one again

• Kirk has a fair record when leading

• Former winners look dangerous from just two adrift

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08:40 - January 7, 2024

The pre-event favourite and world number one, Scottie Scheffler, led The Sentry by a stroke at halfway and he's been matched at a low of 2.56/4 but his putting woes returned on Saturday and he goes into today's fourth and final round trailing pre-tournament longshot, Chris Kirk, by three. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:30.

Chris Kirk -21 5.49/2
Akshay Bhatia -20 10.519/2
Xander Schauffele -19 6.25/1
Jordan Spieth -19 7.613/2
Byeong Hun An -19 14.527/2
Scottie Scheffler -18 8.27/1
Jason Day -18 25.024/1
Sahith Theegala -18 25.024/1
Harris English -18 34.033/1
Collin Morikawa -17 28.027/1
Patrick Cantlay -17 28.027/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -17 42.041/1
JT Poston -17 80.079/1
Tyrrell Hatton -16 110.0109/1
Brian Harman -16 170.0169/1
Sepp Straka -16 240.0239/1
-15 and 140.0139/1 bar

After yesterday's seven-under-par 66 that saw him hit the front, Chris Kirk was more than aware of the task in hand now.

"You certainly can't protect anything out here, that's for sure," Kirk said. "When it's a shootout like this and the scores are really low, you just stay aggressive and just go do your thing."

And with the wind predicted to die down today, scoring is going to be super low again in round four.

Kirk has a very solid record when leading. He converted a two-stroke lead at the Honda Classic last February (now known as the Cognizant Classic) and he's converted four of eight 54-hole lead or co-leads throughout his career. He's three from six on the PGA Tour.

That will stand him in good stead going into round four and looking at past results, ten of the 17 men to hold a clear advantage with a round to go went on to win but they've all been further clear.

Kirk is the fifth man to lead here by a solitary stroke with one round to go and none of the previous four converted.

It would be a big surprise to see fellow outsider, Akshay Bhatia, kick on and win given how poor the record of debutants is here, but past winners, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth, and the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, must be considered huge dangers, from two and three strokes back.

Scheffler's putting was poor again yesterday and having ranked 10th for Putting Average and 18th for Strokes Gained: Putting at halfway, he now ranks 24th and 36th for those two metrics after three rounds.

I was hopeful that the work he'd done with putting guru, Phil Kenyon, and the change in putter, had done the trick, but looking at those figures it doesn't look great.

So far this week, Scheffler ranks number one for Greens In Regulation and third for SG: Tee to Green so there's nothing wrong with his approach play.

Hopefully he can free up on the greens today now that he's chasing but I'm hopeful more than confident.

Having backed Spieth after round one and Scheffler before the off, I'll take my chances with that pair in round four, without adding anyone else.

Schauffele is a huge danger but he's often a weak finisher and those on -17 probably have slightly too much to do.

Jon Rahm won from seven back last year and Schauffele trailed by five in 2019 but they both had a lot of help from the clear leaders that messed up. Collin Morikawa was six clear 12 months ago and Gary Woodland had led by three in 2019.

08:50 - January 6, 2024

For the second day running in Maui, the wind failed to pick up and scoring was super-low yet again at The Sentry on day two.

Having averaged only 68.83 on Thursday, the scoring improved again yesterday. All 59 players in the field broke the par of 73 and the average score was more than five and a half strokes under-par at 67.47!

The first and the eighth are the only two holes to average over-par over the first two days and we look like getting a winning score of at least -30.

Early starter, Tyrrell Hatton, who had sat tied for 25th and five off the lead after round one, hit the front early on yesterday when he posted an 11-under-par 62, thanks in part to this remarkable eagle three at the par five finishing hole, but with the birdies flying in all over the Plantation Course, it was always fairly likely that he wasn't going to end the day in front.

What a finish @TyrrellHatton couldn't help but smile after his eagle on 18 @TheSentry. https://t.co/5Mrn8npolI pic.twitter.com/x69OMatrRo

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 5, 2024

As it transpired, the pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, was the only man to pass him so here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:40.

Scottie Scheffler -16 3.02/1
Tyrrell Hatton -15 11.521/2
Sungjae Im -15 13.012/1
Brendon Todd -15 32.031/1
Viktor Hovland -14 9.417/2
Collin Morikawa -14 11.521/2
Byeong Hun An -14 34.033/1
Chris Kirk -14 50.049/1
Jordan Spieth -13 26.025/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -13 29.028/1
Brian Harman -13 46.045/1
Sahith Theegala -13 50.049/1
Sepp Straka -13 55.054/1
Akshay Bhatia -13 90.089/1
-12 and 36.035/1 bar

It's an incredibly bunched leaderboard at the halfway stage with as many as 14 players within three of the leader, Scheffler, but given the benign conditions and the previous results here, it really does look highly likely that the winner is listed above.

The wind is predicted to pick up fractionally today but they're going to continue to shoot ridiculously low scores and passing such a deep bunch of quality players looks virtually impossible.

Last year's winner, Jon Rahm, sat sixth and five off the lead at halfway, having been tied for the lead after round one, but the two winners before him, Cameron Smith and Harris English, were both leading at halfway and we have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the only course winner (Sergio Garcia) not to be inside the top-ten at halfway.

Just like the 2005 winner, Geoff Ogilvy, who sat ninth at halfway, Sergio trailed by seven but every other Sentry winner since the tournament switched to the Plantation Course back in 1999 has been inside the top-six places and within five strokes of the lead at halfway.

Having backed Scheffler before the off, and having watched him putt a bit better yesterday, I'm more than happy to stick with him but I can see why he's still trading at 2/13.00.

The world number one ranks only 10th for Putting Average and 18th for Strokes Gained: Putting but he also ranks second for Greens In Regulation and first for the crucial stat - SG: Tee to Green, and if he plays like he has over the first two days, he's most definitely the one they all need to beat.

Of his closet challengers at halfway, Sungjae Im looks fairly priced at around the 12/113.00 mark and I've had a tiny wager on him but there are dangers aplenty and Scheffler will need to keep holing his fair share of putts if he's to stay out in front.

Course specialist, Collin Morikawa, who's putting very nicely so far, and Viktor Hovland are very obvious dangers and the only one that looks a little on the shot side, price wise, is Hatton.

He wasn't convinced by the state of his game when interviewed after round two, despite his low round, and that was demonstrated on the course with this bit of poor behaviour that won't endear him to many of his peers.

It isn't funny, is just poor behaviour... but is Hatton so is funny. https://t.co/oUqrDmp3lg

? Pablo Larrazabal (@plarrazabal) January 6, 2024

12:25 - January 5, 2024

Despite a bogey five at the par four 16th, after he hit the lip of a fairway bunker with his second shot, pre-event 80.079/1 chance, Sahith Theegala, ended the first day in front at The Sentry following a nine-under-par 64 around the Plantation Course at Kapalua.

On a largely benign day on Maui, the scoring was as good as expected and there are as many as 11 players within two of the leader, including all the well-fancied players before the off so it's a tough event to call.

Leaderboard after Round 1 @TheSentry

1. @SRTheegala (-9)
T2. @Collin_Morikawa (-8)
T2. @CamiloVillegasR
T2. Sungjae Im
T2. @JDayGolf
T2. Viktor Hovland
T7. @XSchauffele (-7)
T7. @Patrick_Cantlay
T7. @GrilloEmiliano
T7. @JordanSpieth
T7. Scottie Scheffler

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 5, 2024

The world number one and pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, still heads the market after a seven-under-par 65 but he'll feel like he left a few out there.

As highlighted in the preview, I felt that putting would be the key to how Scheffler fares this week and throughout 2024 and he'll feel slightly frustrated that he missed a few short ones.

Scheffler failed to birdie the par five ninth, when he missed from just four feet, and having been matched at a low of 4.94/1 in the early hours, he three-putted the par five finishing hole.

Scheffler ranks only 31st for Putting Average and 27th for Strokes Gained: Putting after day one so he'll need to improve over the next three days with the flatstick if he's to justify favouritism.

Theegala could be fractionally over-priced given the last three winners were all leading or co-leading after round one and most winners here start fast.

Sergio Garcia in 2002, Stuart Appleby in 2005, and Xander Schauffele five years ago, all overcame slow starts but the other 22 winners at this venue have been no more than three strokes off the lead after the first round.

Since Appleby won from off the pace in 2005, as many as 16 of the 18 Sentry winners have been inside the top five places and within two of the lead after round one.

Geoff Ogilvy was only three off the lead after round one when he won in 2010 so although we've seen a couple of clear leaders mess up in round four, Kapalua is a very hard place to make up ground and we should be concentrating on the top-11 on the leaderboard.

Making up ground here is tough, and it will be even tougher this year with the likes of Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and former winners, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth, all within two.

Although the leaderboard is jampacked with top-class players and it's clearly a tough tournament to call, I'm happy to add to my sole pre-event selection, Scheffler, with the 2016 winner, Spieth, and huge outsider, Camilo Villegas, who sits tied for second and just one off the lead.

Spieth didn't just win here eight years ago, he absolutely romped home, winning by eight in 30-under-par and he played nicely yesterday after a poor start.

The 30-year-old hit a high of 90.089/1 when he double-bogeyed the third hole but he played his last 14 holes in nine-under-par to end the day just two adrift and I can see him making a fast start today alongside Scheffler with their early start given how well they played together yesterday afternoon.

A pairing that goes right at it @JordanSpieth and Scottie Scheffler knock it close @TheSentry. pic.twitter.com/J8prYHclok

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 5, 2024

I didn't bother with the Find Me a 100 Winner column this week given the woeful record of longshots at The Sentry, but I can't let Villegas go unbacked after his immaculate putting display yesterday.

The Columbian did us a huge favour when he won the Bermuda Championship at 160.0159/1 for the column in November so I'm more than happy to throw a few pounds in his direction at 70.069/1 this morning after his nice start yesterday.

Pre-Event Pick:
Scottie Scheffler @ 7.87/1

In-Play Picks:
Jordan Spieth @ 20.019/1
Camilo Villegas @ 70.069/1
Sungjae Im @ 13.525/2

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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