The Punter's In-Play Blog: Odds-on Oosty poised to go back-to-back

• All change again at La Réserve

• Course designer clear with a round to go

• Veterans chanced from off the pace

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21:05 - December 16, 2023

The pre-event favourite, Louis Oosthuizen, made three eagles in round three at the Mauritius Open today and it really should have been four!

He missed a great chance for a three at the par five eighth hole and he also missed a short putt for par at the 17th but other than that, he was very impressive, and he heads into the final round leading by a stroke and trading at odds-on. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 20:55.

Louis Oosthuizen -14 1.684/6
Jacques P De Villiers -13 9.08/1
Laurie Canter -11 8.88/1
Jayden Schaper -10 14.013/1
Jaco Prinsloo -10 36.035/1
Pieter Moolman -9 90.089/1
Lyle Rowe -9 310.0309/1
Marcel Siem -8 65.064/1
Paul Waring -8 75.074/1
Marcel Schneider -8 150.0149/1
Darren Fichardt -8 160.0159/1
Dylan Naidoo -8 220.0219/1
-7 and 100.099/1 bar

After a wait of five years for his tenth DP World Tour title, it's odds-on that Oosthuizen will claim his 11th just six days later but I'm in no rush to back him for several reasons.

Antoine Rozner followed the best round of the day on Thursday, a ten-under-par 62, with a two-over-par 74 on Friday and Sebastian Soderberg followed his unrivalled 65 on Friday with an atrocious 77 today so it hasn't been easy to back up a low round around La Réserve Golf Links. Oosthuizen's 65 today was matched by Laurie Canter but bettered by no one and he may struggle to back that up tomorrow.

He's also not the most reliable in-contention, as his wobbly finish on Monday demonstrated.

This is a weak leaderboard, and he really should convert but we saw a few weeks ago, when Thriston Lawrence failed to convert a three-stroke lead at the Joburg Open, that funny things can happen on a Sunday.

Oosthuizen is trading at the same price as Lawrence was trading at before round four at the Joburg and his challenge unravelled quickly around Houghton Country Club.

This venue is very different to Houghton, but we've seen all week long that you don't have to be too far off your game to go astray around La Réserve and so far, the leaderboard has been extremely volatile.

Alternatives look fairly thin on the ground. Jayden Schaper looks a fair price to get off the mark from four back, but I've scanned a little further down the leaderboard and chanced a couple of longshots.

Marcel Siem, who's based at the venue, is a decent price at 65.064/1 and the veteran South African, Darren Fichardt, knows he's still in the event.

He was six back before the final round of the Joburg Open and trading at a huge price, but he was matched in running at just 4.216/5 before going on to finish second, two adrift of the winner, Dean Burmester, so I'm happy to chance him modestly too at 160.0159/1.

The leaders tee-off at 8:00 uk time tomorrow so place your bets tonight or set your alarm.

17:30 - December 15, 2023

Having been matched at as low as 2.1411/10 on Thursday, the first-round leader and defending champion, Antoine Rozner, found things far tougher today at the Mauritius Open.

After a slow start to round two, the Parisian looked like he was ready to press forward again when he birdied the par five 11th to get back in front but for the second day running, he made a mess of a drivable par four...

Having been the only player to find water off the tee on the sixth on day one, he hit his tee-shot on the 13th miles right and into all sorts of trouble.

A double-bogey eventually went down on the card, and he dropped another shot at the 16th to trail Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Sebastian Soderberg, by three.

The second round didn't quite get finished today but none of the players looking to finish their second rounds are in-contention so here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 17:20.

Sebastian Soderberg -10 5.85/1
Marcel Schneider -9 13.012/1
Jacques P De Villiers -9 50.049/1
Antoine Rozner -8 6.86/1
Paul Waring -8 14.527/2
Daniel Brown -8 16.015/1
Louis Oosthuizen -7 6.411/2
Wilco Nienaber -7 22.021/1
Jeff Winther -7 24.023/1
Pedro Figueiredo -7 90.089/1
Lyle Rowe -7 130.0129/1
Dylan Naidoo -7 130.0129/1
Marcel Siem -6 28.027/1
-6 and 40.039/1 bar

Matt's fancy, Soderberg, now heads the market and rightly so.

The conditions were considerably tougher today and the scoring average was 73.87, which was almost three strokes more than yesterday's average of 71.06, so his seven-under-par 65 was every bit as good as Rozner's round on day one.

The trouble the Swede will now have, is backing up that low round, something that Rozner struggled to do today.

The Frenchman may well bounce back tomorrow but the fact that he's played his last 22 holes in three-over-par doesn't bode well.

Last week's winner, Louis Oosthuizen, has been matched at a low of 5.14/1 but he'll be disappointed by his finish today.

Oosty dropped two strokes in his last three holes and he needed to hole a fairly lengthy putt for par at his last hole - the ninth.

Those three dominate the market and if I had to pick out one of the three it would be Oosthuizen.

He's crept into the event nicely and his course knowledge may prove to be advantageous over the weekend but I'm happy to cast the net a little wider.

Marcel Siem battled nicely today, and he looks a reasonable price at around 30.029/1, and Denmark's Jeff Winther looks dangerous from just three off the lead, but the two I'm adding are Brandon Stone, who would have been tied for the lead but for two bad holes today, and Guido Migliozzi, who shot a very respectable five-under-par 67 in round two.

Stone is a class act on his day, and he's looked close to his best this week, bar for a couple of clumsy holes.

The 30-year-old three-time DP World Tour winner double-bogeyed the seventh and the 16th holes today so he needs to keep the big numbers off the card tomorrow, but I thought he was too big at 65.064/1 given he only trails by four.

Migliozzi is a little further back, trailing by six, but with the wind due to blow again tomorrow, we may well see plenty of volatility on the leaderboard and making up ground is much easier when conditions are tough. He looks a bit big at 140.0139/1.

14:20 - December 14, 2023

Pre-event pick, Antoine Rozner, has opened his title defence at the Mauritius Open with a course record 10-under-par 62 around La Réserve Golf Links, but it could and perhaps should, have been so much better.

Beginning on the 10th, Rozner played his first 12 holes in ten under-par and once he'd birdied the par five fifth hole to get to -11, everyone awake (not me) was on 59 watch.

With the drivable par four sixth and par five eighth still to come, it certainly wasn't inconceivable that the Frenchman would break 60 but he made a complete mess of the sixth.

Averaging almost half a stroke under-par and measuring only 311 yards long, the sixth hole offered up a great chance for him to move to 12-under-par but having taken an iron for safety off the tee, the 30-year-old knocked his tee-shot into the water way left of the fairway. He was the only man to find the drink on the sixth hole all day!

He recovered well to make a bogey five there but after a birdie at the eighth, he finished his day with a bogey five at the ninth but there was no shame in that.

Holes nine, ten and 11 were the hardest three on the course today so that's worth bearing in mind if you're planning to bet in-running.

The in-form 22-year-old South African, Jayden Schaper, who also played in the morning, shot a seven-under-par 65 and that looked like being the second lowest round of the day for much of the day, until one of the latter starters, England's Paul Waring, got to within one of the leader with a bogey-free nine-under-par 63.

The pre-event favourite, and co-course designer, Louis Oosthuizen, who won the Alfred Dunhill Championship as recently as Monday, posted a respectable four-under-par 68 but the one I like after round one is the impressive young South African, Casey Jarvis, who shot a five-under-67 in the afternoon.

Jarvis has been in-contention in the last two events on the DP World Tour - sitting second at halfway in the South African Open and leading last week at Leopard Creek - so he's clearly in-form, and while he'll be disappointed by his weekend efforts (finished 52nd and seventh), he looks over-priced at odds in-excess of 40.039/1.

He'll have learnt from the last two weeks and being just off the pace early on should help him. He's no bigger than 40/141.00 on the High Street but he's just been matched at as high as 50.049/1 on the exchange.

Rozner is trading at around 9/43.25, having been matched at a low of 2.1411/10, and that looks fair enough.

He's highly likely to be trailing by the time he tees off tomorrow afternoon but given he's finished seventh, second and first at three different courses in Mauritius and that he now leads at yet another different track, he's clearly very comfortable on the island and he's most definitely the one they all have to beat.

"Good vibes" in Mauritius @AntoineRozner's title defence got under way in style. #AfrAsiaBankMauritiusOpen https://t.co/TNfKZ06ATg pic.twitter.com/ikiI73Qj1C

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) December 14, 2023

Pre-Event Pick:
Antoine Rozner @ 18/119.00 (Sportsbook)

In-Play Picks:
Casey Jarvis @ 44.043/1
Brandon Stone @ 65.064/1
Guido Migliozzi @ 140.0139/1
Marcel Siem @ 65.064/1
Darren Fichardt @ 160.0159/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
1.5u Ryan Van Velzen @ 210.0209/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1u Daniel van Tonder @ 340.0339/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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