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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Campillo fairly priced in Qatar

Steven Rawlings
27 October 2023

Jorge Campillo - the narrow leader in Qatar

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The third round is almost complete at Doha and Spain's Jorge Campillo is nicely poised to win the title for a second time...

Former winner leads with a round to go
MacIntyre the danger to the 2020 champ
Frontrunners have a strong record at Doha

18:00 - October 28, 2023

Much to Jorge Campillo's frustration, the hooter blew to suspend play at the Qatar Masters while he was playing the par three 17th, meaning he couldn't tee-off on 18 to get round three finished and it looked like a premature decision.

It's always tricky to know just how dark it is when watching on TV, but it certainly looked like there was enough light left for Campillo's group to get done.

While Campillo complained, Sami Valimaki birdie the 18th to get to within one of the Spaniard and Robert Macintyre birdied the 16th to repair some of the damage done at 15, where the Scotsman had just racked up a double-bogey six.

Round three will resume at 7:40 (local time) tomorrow morning and the fourth round will begin at 8:45. Here's the current state of play with prices to back and position through round three where applicable at 17:50.

Jorge Campillo -16 (thru 17) 2.8815/8
Sami Valimaki -15 5.85/1
Robert Macintyre -14 (thru 16) 5.39/2
Sean Crocker -13 21.020/1
Nacho Elvira -13 26.025/1
Scott Jamieson -13 27.026/1
Thomas Aiken -13 (thru 17) 28.027/1
Daniel Hillier -11 (thru 15) 28.027/1
Ewen Ferguson -11 46.045/1
Jordan Smith -11 50.049/1
Matt Wallace -11 65.064/1
Tom McKibbin -11 80.079/1
Tapio Pulkkanen -11 120.0119/1
-10 and 150149/1 bar

The last two course winners at Doha - Ewen Ferguson (2022) and Justin Harding (2019) - both trailed by three with a round to go and Sergio Garcia was also three adrift after 54 holes in 2014 but Doha isn't an easy place to play catch up when conditions are good.

Ernie Els, way back in 2005, is the only winner in the tournament's entire history to trail by more than three strokes with a round to go and clear 54-hole leaders have a 66% strike-rate.

Valimaki will be very happy to have got done today but I'm in no rush to side with the Fin. He was tied for the lead with a round to go before winning the Oman Open in extra time in 2020 but he's been beaten twice when trailing by a solitary stroke with a round to go on the DP World Tour since, at the Cyprus Open in 2020 and the Joburg Open in November last year and he was disappointing when tied for the lead after three rounds at the Czech Masters at the end of August when he finished fourth, beaten by five.

It's a shame they didn't get done today as the picture is murky now and a lot will depend on how Campillo and Macintyre finish up their third rounds in the morning, but I can't help but think the value sits with the Spaniard at almost 2/13.00, although Macintyre looks a big danger.

The Scot kicks off his day with a straightforward tee-shot into the gettable par three 17th and he's birdied the 18th in both rounds one and two.

He could make up the two strokes he currently trails Campillo by or he could lose ground but if he closes to within one, it will be a repeat of how the pair stood after three rounds at the Kenya Open back in March.

On that occasion the market made the Spaniard the narrow favourite at 3.3512/5, with MacIntyre trading at 3.8514/5, and the market got it right.

Campillo shot 66 to take the title as the Scot fell to tied seventh with a lacklustre final round of 70 and that was the second time that Campillo had converted a one-stroke lead on the DP World Tour.

The Spaniard beat David Drysdale in a protracted playoff in this event at Education City in 2020, after he'd led by a stroke with a round to go, so assuming he doesn't do anything daft at 18 in the morning, and that he leads with a round to go, he's looking to convert his third 54-hole lead in-a-row.

Given ten of the previous 15 clear 54 hole leaders at Doha went on to win and that Campillo is looking to convert his third 54 hole lead in-a-row, at almost 2/13.00, the Spaniard looks the best bet with a day to go.

15:50 - October 27, 2023

Darkness has put pay to play at the Qatar Masters where two of the three co-leaders still have at least a third of their second rounds to play.

My two pre-event picks - Rasmus Hojgaard and Matt Wallace - have been matched at as low as 5.85/1 and 11.010/1 respectively but I really don't know why.

Drawn PM-AM, they were both always up against it after yesterday's poor weather in the afternoon and getting up in the early hours today to finish off their first rounds before playing their second, couldn't have helped any.

Wallace told Sky Sports that he was up at 3:00 so it was a long day and it's probably all been for nothing.

Having hit the front on seven-under-par after nine holes of his second round, Hojgaard lost his way badly on the front nine (his second nine), shooting a two-over-par 38, and although he currently sits in a tie for 24th and just five off the lead, he's going to be miles behind by the time round two has been completed.

South African veteran, Thomas Aiken, who was a 1000.0999/1 chance before the off, is the only player currently in the top-six to have already finished his second round and the fact that you can back him at more than 40.039/1 tells you all you need to know.

He's likely to be three or more strokes off the lead by the time the stagger unwinds.

Robert Macintyre at the Made In Himmerland 23.jpg

Robert Macintyre, who sits just one off the lead after nine holes of round two, heads the market but he's very closely followed by fellow Scot and defending champ, Ewen Ferguson, who will return to the course in the morning to face a 22-foot putt for an eagle on the 10th hole to lead alone.

The British Masters winner, Daniel Hillier, is tied for the lead alongside Aiken and Spanish outsider, Santiago Tarrio, and he's the only other player trading at a single-figure price but he too could hit the front on his own first thing in the morning. The New Zealander has eight feet for a birdie at the 12th.

The Scottish duo deserve to dominate the market given they sit one off the lead with still nine to play but I've taken a small chance on Thriston Lawrence at 24.023/1.

The prolific South African sits on seven-under-par after 11 holes of round two so he does need to finish his second round off nicely to justify that price being value, but I thought he was worth chancing given how often he wins once he gets a sniff.

15:40- October 26, 2023

Play was suspended at the Qatar Masters this afternoon when a dust storm caused poor viability and very soon after play resumed the threat of lightning caused another delay.

Unable to resume again, play has now been suspended for the day and round one will resume at 6:30 local time tomorrow morning.

It's hard to tell whether the afternoon starters have caught a bit of a break by getting to finish off their opening rounds in the morning but even if they have, it still looks like they've got the rough end of the stick.

In calm conditions, the early starters were able to post low scores today and Dave Tindall's 66/167.00 first round leader fancy, Scott Jamieson, and the British Masters winner, Daniel Hillier, are tied at the top after opening seven-under-par 65s and they look like staying there given everyone inside the top-18 completed their first rounds this morning before the wind whipped up.

Scott Jamieson in Spain.jpg

After a disappointing week in Andalucia, when a pre-event selection for yours truly for the second event in-a-row, Robert Macintyre has started nicely to sit tied for third on -6 and the Scots are dominating the leaderboard after day one.

A stroke behind Jamieson and alongside Macintyre is the defending champ, Ewen Ferguson, and the veteran, Stephen Gallacher, so four of the top-six are Scottish but it's Macintyre that heads the market at 8/19.00.

Pre-event joint favourite, Jordan Smith, and the 2009 Qatar Masters winner, Alvaro Quiros, are the only two afternoon starters within for strokes of the lead (both sit on -3) and Smith is currently trading at around 12/113.00.

Whether he can kick on before the wind gets up tomorrow remains to be seen but after today's loss of play, he may well end up finishing round two in the worst of the weather tomorrow afternoon so with so much up in the air, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and see how the stagger unwinds.

I strongly suspect that today's early starters will finish up being on the correct side of the draw but it may be too early to tell and I'm more than happy to see where we are at the close of play tomorrow.

Having won from behind at the Belfry at the beginning of July, co-leader, Hiller, has no concerns about playing rights for next season but languishing at number 119 in the Race to Dabai Standings, Jamieson needs a great week to keep his card.

As highlighted in the preview, this is the last counting event of the season and anyone outside the top-116 in the standings will lose their playing privileges for next season.

Unfortunately, both my pre-event picks were assigned what looks like the wrong side of the draw. Matt Wallace looks in big trouble on +2 after nine holes but Rasmus Hojgaard is on one-under-par after 10 holes so I haven't given up on him just yet.

As for the Find Me a 100 Winner picks, Daniel van Tonder started nicely. He birdied the first three holes this morning and he was four-under-par after eight holes but that was as good as it got.

He was assigned the seemingly favourable AM-PM draw but his birdie at the 8th was his last of the day and after back-to-back bogeys on the back-nine he finished his opening round on -2.

Qatar Masters Pre-event Selections:
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 34.033/1
Matt Wallace @ 38.037/1

In-Play Pick:
Thriston Lawrence @ 24.023/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
1u Jeong weon Ko @ 350.0349/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
0.5u Deon Germishuys @ 600.0599/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
0.5u Daniel van Tonder @ 680.0679/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
0.5u Ockie Strydon @ 1000.0999/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Campillo fairly priced in Qatar

Former winner leads with a round to go

MacIntyre the danger to the 2020 champ

Frontrunners have a strong record at Doha

18:00 - October 28, 2023

15:50 - October 27, 2023

15:40- October 26, 2023

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