21:00 - September 4, 2026 - Lawrence a fair price to rack up the hat-trick
The defending champion, Thriston Lawrence, who also won the event in 2022, was matched at just 2.265/4 after he'd birdied six holes in-a-row midway through his second round at the Omega European Masters to get to -13 for the week but he finished his round with six straight pars so his halfway lead is just two.
Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 20:50.
Thriston Lawrence -13 3.814/5
Nacho Elvira -11 9.28/1
Jeremy Paul -11 29.028/1
Keito Nakajima -10 9.417/2
Paul Casey -9 27.026/1
Ashun Wu -9 40.039/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello -9 44.043/1
Eugenio Chacarra -8 21.020/1
Thomas Detry -8 26.025/1
Angel Ayora -8 26.025/1
-8 and 36.035/1 bar
Here's a list of where the last 12 winners were positioned at the halfway stage of this event and it's immediately apparent that 36 hole leaders don't have a terrific recent record.
2013 - Tied for the lead
2014 - Fifth and three back
2015 - Led by a stroke
2016 - Fourth and one back
2017 - Third and five back
2018 - Second and two back
2019 - 12th and five back
2020 - No Event
2021 - 14th and five back
2022 - Second and one back
2023 - Fifth and three back
2024 - Led by four strokes
2025 - Third and two back
In the 25 editions since 1999, 10 halfway leaders have gone on to win and two have been beaten in a playoff but on closer analysis, it hasn't been an easy place to make the running lately.
Matt Wallace went on to win a playoff after he'd led by four at the this stage two years ago but he was the first 36-hole leader to win in nine years and three of the last eight winners were trailing by as many as five strokes at this stage.
When Lawrence won here for the first time, in 2022, he trailed by a stroke, and he was two adrift last year, but he's held a two-stroke lead at this stage of a 72-hole event elsewhere a couple of times previously.
He finished third at the Eye of Africa PGA Championship on the Sunshine Tour after he'd led by two after 36 holes, back in 2020, and he went on to win the South African Open by a stroke in 2022, after he'd led by two at halfway.
Looking back at the DP World Tour over the last 10 years, 25% of two-stroke leaders have gone on to win, suggesting that Lawrence isn't a great price at less than 3/14.00 but there are several reasons to think the 3.929/10 available on the Betfair Exchange is fair and it was a price I was happy to take.
I was tempted to play Japan's Keito Nakajima before the off and I can see why he's vying for second favouritism at the halfway stage, but I was unwilling to back him because of his poor numbers on the greens.
The best Nakajima has ranked for Putting Average in his last 10 starts is 24th and although he's ranked highly for Strokes Gained: Putting a couple of times, his work on the greens was a big concern so it's no surprise to see him ranking only 27th for PA at halfway.
In contrast, in addition to ranking third for Greens In Regulation and first for Scrambling, Lawrence ranks eighth for PA and if he continues to perform like that, around a venue that he clearly loves, he's going to be tough to beat.
His two closest rivals, Nacho Elvira and Jeremy Paul, were both outsiders before the off and the prolific Lawrence looks very fairly priced at halfway.
Back Thriston Lawrence