The Punter's In-Play Blog: Is Rose impossible to oppose?

• Englishman six clear with 18 to play

• Stats suggest Rose is fractionally short at 1.061/18

• For the latest Betfair golf odds click here

• Click here for more golf tips for upcoming tournaments

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10:10 - February 1, 2026

Justin Rose was matched at just 1.031/33 to win the Farmers Insurance Open after he'd played the first 10 holes of his third round in five-under-par yesterday.

Back-to-back bogeys followed at 11 and 12 to put a modicum of doubt into long odds-on backers but he birdied the 18^th to play the last six holes in one-under-par, and it very much looks like a done deal with 18 holes to play. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 10:00.

Justin Rose -21 1.061/18
Joel Dahmen -15 38.037/1
Si Woo Kim -13 60.059/1
Ryo Hisatsune -13 150.0149/1
Max McGreevy -12 280.0279/1
-11 and 350.0349/1 bar

If we disregard Jon Rahm's withdrawal at the Memorial Tournament in 2021, when he tested positive for Covid when six clear through 54 holes at Muirfield, five of 27 men have failed to convert a six-stroke 54 hole lead on the PGA Tour over the last 30 years.

Greg Norman famously lost the US Masters having led by six, Sergio Garcia failed to convert at the Well Fargo in 2005, Spencer Levin at the Phoenix Open in 2012, Dustin Johnson at the WGC HSBC Champions in China in 2017, and most recently, Collin Morikawa at The Sentry three years ago.

It's a small sample size but it's a strike rate of only 18.5%, so Rose lifting the trophy can't be viewed as a forgone conclusion.

I find it difficult to envisage Rose slipping up but given the market implies he has a 93% chance of converting, I feel compelled to lay him modestly at 1.071/14.

Kyle Stanley, who one week later benefited from Levin's collapse at the Phoenix Open, lost a five-stroke 54-hole lead here in 2012 and John Rollins finished second having led by three in 2009, so that's slightly against the leader.

He's a far more accomplished player now but Rose has twice squandered a three-stroke 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour (at the Travelers Championship in 2010 and the Memorial Tournament in 2015) so all things considered, I'd rather take Rose on than back him at such a short price.

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16:10 - January 31, 2026

The four-stroke halfway leader of the Bahrain Championship, Calum Hill, drifted to odds-against before he kicked off his third round and the drift was justified.

The 31-year-old started nervously, bogeying three of his first six holes to drift all the way out to 7.06/1 and odds-on backers, myself included, were in trouble.

Freddy Schott, who had begun the day in solo second, hit a low of 2.588/5 after a solid start but once the German hit the front, the birdies dried up.

Schott played the back-nine in two-over par, Hill played it in two-under, and he'll take a two-stroke lead into tomorrow's final round. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 16:00.

Calum Hill -16 2.3411/8
Freddy Schott -14 6.611/2
Patrick Reed -12 9.617/2
Grant Forrest -12 15.014/1
Sergio Garcia -12 18.017/1
Mikael Lindberg -11 36.035/1
Jorge Campillo -11 44.043/1
Nacho Elvira -11 60.059/1
Ben Schmidt -11 60.059/1
Danniel Hillier -10 55.054/1
-10 and 85.084/1 bar

Over the last 30 years, 206 men have led a 72-hole DP World Tour event by two strokes and 95 of them went on to win.

That's a decent enough 46% strike rate and it's been even better of late with seven of the last 10 to lead by two going on to win.

Hill looks fairly priced on the stats alone but today's start to round three can't be described as anything but off-putting.

As a Hill backer at halfway, I'm hoping he will have learned from the experience, and he'll be more confident tomorrow.

The concerns laid out yesterday about the man in second, Schott, remain after his back-nine today, but there are some big dangers lurking in tied third.

Sergio Garcia hasn't won on the DP World Tour since 2019, and his latest PGA Tour victory came in the US Masters in 2017, but he's won twice on the LIV Tour in the last three years, and he must be considered a threat.

Grant Forrest was an impressive winner of the Nexo Championship in August last year but last week's Dubai Desert Classic winner, Patrick Reed, is my idea of the biggest danger to the leader with 18 to play.

Mikael Lindberg, who's tied for sixth with a round to go, was the only man in the field to match Reed's six-under-par 66 today, and we can't rule out another low one from the 2018 US Masters winner tomorrow.

He struggled to get going on Thursday afternoon, posting a one-under-par 71, but a slow start was understandable given he'd won on Sunday.

Having been matched at as high as 100.099/1, Reed has climbed the leaderboard nicely after Thursday's pedestrian start and after rounds of 67 and 66 on Friday and Saturday, he's poised to go back-to-back should the front two tread water.

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14:10 - January 31, 2026

Having shot the lowest round of the day on Thursday - a 10-under-par 62 around the North Course - pre-event 80.079/1 chance, Justin Rose, fired the joint second lowest round of the day at the Farmers Insurance Open - a seven-under-par 65 around the much tougher South Course - and he now leads by four. Here's the latest state of play at 14:00.

Justin Rose -17 1.68/13
Seamus Power -13 12.523/2
Max McGreevy -11 23.022/1
Joel Dahmen -11 50.049/1
Si Woo Kim -10 19.537/2
Michael Thorbjornsen -9 38.037/1
-9 and 60.059/1 bar

A day after analysing the stats for four-stroke midway leaders on the DP World Tour, we're tasked with the same job on the PGA Tour.

As highlighted yesterday, over the last 30 years and prior to this week's Bahrain Championship, 56 players had led a 72-hole DP World Tour event by four strokes at the halfway stage and 29 of them had gone on to win - a strike rate of 52%.

It's a similar story on the PGA Tour but the conversion rate isn't quite as good.

Over the last 30 years, 59 players have led a 72-hole PGA Tour event by four at halfway but only 23 of them went on to win. That's strike rate of just 39% and looking at very recent history, five of the last six to lead by four after 36 holes have all failed to convert.

Those numbers don't look great for odds-on Rose backers, but not all four-stroke leaders are the same.

For example, the last man to lead by four was Max Greyserman at the Baycurrent Classic in Japan in October but in behind him, tied for second, were a trio of players including the man that beat him in the end, Xander Schauffele.

In contrast, Rose's lead looks much softer.

Seamus Power, the only man within five of the Englishman, is far from a great closer and the only other player within eight of the leader that's trading at less than 24.023/1, is the man that capitulated with the lead last Sunday at the American Express - Si Woo Kim.

Rose won this event back in 2019 and he's won twice since, at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2023 and the FedEx St Jude last year. He's far and away the biggest name on the leaderboard and he has a fine record when leading at halfway.

Rose finished 11^th in the Volvo PGA Championship in 2004, on the first occasion that he held a clear lead after 36 holes, but since then, he's converted three of four 36-hole leads, and he looks a fair price to go in again.

Rose is a bit too short for my liking, but I don't want to oppose him with anyone else and I'm happy to leave the event alone.

The third round of the Bahrain Championship has only just finished so I'll be back later with a look at the latest state of play there.

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19:00 - January 30, 2026

Although there a couple of groups still to finish up their second rounds in the morning, the vast majority of the field have reached the midway point of the Bahrain Championship and none of those that need to complete round two tomorrow are in-contention so here's the current state of play with prices to back at 18:50.

Calum Hill -16 1.9720/21
Freddy Schott -12 9.417/2
Ugo Coussaud -9 29.028/1
Danniel Hillier -8 22.021/1
Julien Guerrier -8 34.033/1
Alejandro Del Rey -8 40.039/1
Sergio Garcia -8 55.054/1
Casey Jarvis -8 55.054/1
JC Ritchie -8 55.054/1
Brandon Stone -8 70.069/1
-8 and 75.074/1 bar

Anyone that got up nice and early today may well have availed themselves of a nice bit of value on the leader.

Hill looked too big at odds of more than 4/15.00 deep on the back nine and he was still trading at around 6/42.50 after he'd birdied the last three holes to match Brandon Robinson Thompson's course record of 11-under-par 61, set in round one last year.

1st: birdie
2nd: par
3rd: par
4th: birdie
5th: birdie
6th: birdie
7th: par
8th: par
9th: birdie
10th: birdie
11th: par
12th: par
13th: birdie
14th: birdie
15th: par
16th: birdie
17th: birdie
18th: birdie

Calum Hill's round of 61 to tie the course record #BahrainGolfChamps pic.twitter.com/rIssXHO6LW

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 30, 2026

The market anticipated one or two players getting a bit closer as the afternoon wave kicked off but nobody else shot any better than seven-under-par in round two and Hill continued to shorten up.

The defending champ, Laurie Canter, hit a low of 7.613/2 after he reached -3 for the day and nine-under par for the tournament after six holes of his second round, but he capitulated after that, playing his last 11 holes in four-over.

Over the last 30 years, we've seen 56 players lead a 72-hole DP World Tour event by four strokes at the halfway stage and 29 of them went on to win.

That's a strike rate of 52% suggesting Hill is trading at around the right price at around 1.9720/21 but it's too big given the record of his nearest challenger and the fact that he's seven clear of all bar Freddy Schott.

The big-hitting 24-year-old German won wire-to-wire on the HotelPlanner Tour back in 2022,  but since then he's been within four strokes of the lead after two rounds of a DP World Tour event six times, sitting sixth, sixth, seventh, first, 10^th and fourth and he went on to finish 10^th, 72^nd, 37^th, 16^th, 43^rd and 15^th.

Schott is young and he could improve considerably on those performances but it's a bad enough record to suggest Hill's worth chancing at almost even money.

The Scotsman, who went off at 160.0159/1, will do very well to back up today's low round with a reasonable score tomorrow, and on the two previous occasions that he was in front at this stage, he was beaten, but he's won twice since on the DP World Tour.

He led the Mauritius Open by a stroke in 2019, before going on to finish 17^th and having been tied at the top after 36 holes of the 2021 British masters, he finished only eighth, so they're significant negatives but he still looks worth backing at his current price.

He won the Cazoo Classic in fine fashion in 2021, having sat third at halfway, and he won the Joburg Open in a playoff in March last year after he'd shot 62 on Sunday, having trailed by eight with 18 to play.

He has a bit more experience than the man sitting in second. In addition to winning twice on the DP World Tour, he also won three times on the HotelPlanner Tour in the space of a 12 months in 2018 and 2019.

Pre-event 80.079/1 chance, Justin Rose, who opened up with a 10-under-par 62 around the North Course, is still in front at the Farmers Insurance Open after five holes of his second round around the South Course but I'll take a look at that event in detail at the halfway stage tomorrow.

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