The Punter's In-Play Blog: Kim up by one with 18 to play

• Scheffler the worthy favourite with a round to go

• Kim bidding to become the third two-time winner in five years

• For the latest Betfair golf odds click here

• Click here for more golf tips for upcoming tournaments

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07:05 - January 25, 2026

Everyone has played a round at each of the three courses in the rotation at the American Express - the Nicklaus Course, La Quinta, and the host course, the Pete Dye Stadium Course -so we're left with an 18-hole sprint around the toughest of the three layouts - the Pete Dye Stadium Course, and Si Woo Kim leads by a stroke.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 6:55.

Si Woo Kim -22 3.6553/20
Scottie Scheffler -21 2.447/5
Blades Brown -21 13.525/2
Wyndham Clark -20 13.012/1
Eric Cole -20 20.019/1
Matt McCarty -19 32.031/1
Tom Hoge -19 38.037/1
Andrew Putnam -19 80.079/1
J. T Poston -18 80.079/1
-17 and 110.0109/1 bar

The last three, and five of the last six winners, have been either leading or tied for the lead with a round to go but this has been a great event to take on odds-on chances over the years.

Having led by four with 18 to play, Straka cruised to a two-stroke victory 12 months ago but Scottie Scheffler's close friend, Sam Burns, was matched at just 1.3130/100 when he led by two after 13 holes on Sunday in 2024 and in 14 of the last 19 renewals, we've seen at least one player trade at odds-on without winning. And in two of the last seven renewals there have been two players trade at odds-on before losing - Scottie Scheffler (1.9210/11) and Abraham Ancer (1.715/7) in 2020 and Phil Mickelson (1.695/7) and Adam Hadwin (1.081/12) in 2019. 

Following Hudson Swafford's second victory in 2022 and Rahm's in 2023, yesterday's in-play pick, Si Woo Kim, who won in 2021, is bidding to become the third man in five years to win the event for a second time, as well as the sixth 54-hole leader or co-leader to convert in the last seven years, but it's no surprise to see that it's the world number one, Scheffler, who was matched at as low as 1.695/7 during round three yesterday, that heads the market.

Kim was tied at the top five years ago but he's only one from four when holding a clear lead on the PGA Tour, whereas Scheffler has gone on to win on all nine occasions that he's either been one back or had a share of the lead entering the final round.

They're worrying stats for us Kim backers and when you dig a little deeper it looks even more ominous.

Kim won the Wyndham Championship in 2016 having led by four through 54 holes but he finished fourth in the Texas Open in 2019 after a 72 on Sunday, after he'd led by a stroke, third in the 2020 Wyndham, after he'd led by two (shot 70 on Sunday), and having led the Heritage at Harbour Town by a stroke in April last year, he shot 75 on Sunday to finish eighth.

Although Scheffler and Kim dominate the market, it's far from a two-man race. The 18-year-old phenom, Blades Brown, is alongside Scheffler in a tie for second and Wyndham Clark and Eric Cole are just two off the lead.

Having backed Kim at 5.69/2 and Clark at 22.021/1, I've got two chances going into the final round but I'm very tempted to lay my stakes back on the pair and get Scheffler onside.

Odds of around 6/42.50 about the best player on the planet look fair as he bids to make history yet again.

A win Sunday for Scottie Scheffler would be his 20th on the PGA Tour.

Only 2 players in the modern era have won 20+ PGA Tour titles including 4+ majors before age 30: Jack Nicklaus & Tiger Woods.

Scheffler would become the 3rd.

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) January 25, 2026

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19:50 - January 24, 2026

There's just one round to go at the Dubai Desert Classic and the pre-event 80.079/1 chance, Patrick Reed, is four clear of the field. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:40.

Patrick Reed -14 1.4840/85
David Puig -10 6.25/1
Viktor Hovland -9 10.519/2
Andy Sullivan -9 38.037/1
Francesco Molinari -8 110.0109/1
Andrea Pavan -8 120.0119/1
-7 and 75.074/1 bar

Reed's five-under-par 67 in round three was an impressive enough knock under the circumstances but his task has been made considerably easier than it might have been as all nine players within four strokes of him at halfway shot no better than a one-under-par 71 on Moving Day and it's very hard to see him losing from here.

The last seven men to lead by four with 18 to play on the DP World Tour have all gone on to win and in the last ten years, only three of 12 men to lead by four with a round to go on the DP World Tour have been beaten.

Add in the fact that Reed has converted five of his seven 54-hole leads to date and that in 22 of the 36 editions of the Dubai Desert Classic, the third-round leader has gone on to win, and it's impossible to make a case for taking the leader on.

Odds-on punters can take odds of around 1/21.50 with confidence but I'm going to leave the event alone now.

Having backed Viktor Hovland modestly at halfway at 80.079/1, I've got someone with a bit of a chance to cheer on but it's very hard to look past Reed and he's a very fair price looking at the stats.

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10:00 - January 24, 2026

As many as 16 of the last 18 winners of this week's PGA Tour event - the American Express - have had at least one outing in Hawaii in January before winning this week's event but the lack of a recent spin doesn't appear to be hindering the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, who's tied for the lead at the halfway stage.

The American Express is staged over three different courses over the first three days before tomorrow's final round is played over the toughest of the three course - the Pete Dye Stadium Course (known previously as the PGA West TPC Stadium Course) - so where the players are drawn to play today should be significant.

Here are the averages of the three courses over the first two days.

Pete Dye Stadium Course - Par 72 - 70.45
Nicklaus Course - Par 72 - 67.1
La Quinta - Par 72 - 67.69

The Pete Dye Course is significantly tougher that the other two tracks, averaging almost three shots more than La Quita and 3.35 strokes more than the Nicklaus Course.

Playing the Pete Dye Stadium Course on consecutive days over the weekend is an advantage of sorts but those playing La Quita and the Nicklaus Course today should, in theory, fare better than those playing the host course in round three so in addition to the players score and prices to back below, I've also noted which players are playing at which course today.

Here's the latest state of play.

Scottie Scheffler -17 (SC) 2.727/4
Blades Brown -17 (SC) 32.031/1
Si Woo Kim -16 (LQ) 5.69/2
Matt McCarty -15 (SC) 42.041/1
S.H Kim -15 (SC) 80.079/1
Jacob Bridgeman -14 (LQ) 20.019/1
Wyndham Clark -14 (LQ) 21.020/1
Eric Cole -14 (LQ) 29.028/1
Richie Fowler -14 (SC) 70.069/1
Nick Taylor -14 (SC) 90.089/1
Nico Echavaria -14 (SC) 100.099/1
Ben Griffin -13 (LQ) 17.016/1
Patrick Cantlay -13 (LQ) 25.024/1
Russell Henley -13 (SC) 60.059/1
-13 and 100.099/1 bar

The first wager I tried to strike this week was on the 2021 winner, Si Woo Kim, after he caught the eye with an 11^th place finish in last week's Sony Open, but I was far too greedy, asking for odds of 50.049/1.

The 30-year-old was well-supported in the market, eventually going off at around 38.037/1 but I'm happy to chance him now at 5.69/2.

Scheffler is clearly the man to beat but Kim is the only player inside the top five at halfway that gets to play the easiest of the three courses today and the price is fair.

The 2023 US Open champion, Wyndham Clark, who also plays his third round at La Quinta, is the second of my three halfway wagers.

Clark is two strokes behind Kim and three off the lead but after rounds of 66 and 64 over the first two days, he looks nicely poised to make a charge on Moving Day and he looks over-priced at around 20/121.00 given he's no bigger than 14/115.00 on the High Street.

A shot further back, but also playing La Quinta today, the 2021 runner-up, Patrick Cantlay, is another that looks overpriced on the Exchange.

Like Clark, the 33-year-old, is no bigger than 14/115.00 so I was more than happy to take 25.024/1.

Cantlay's not easy to get across the line and he hasn't won anywhere since the 2022 BMW Championship but playing the easiest of the three courses today, he's being underestimated at halfway.

I'm not around this afternoon so I'll be back this evening with another look at the Dubai Desert Classic.

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17:40 - January 23, 2026

The second round of the American Express on the PGA Tour is underway, and I'll be back tomorrow with an initial in-running look at that event in the morning but for now I'm concentrating my efforts on the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour, where the 2023 runner-up, Patrick Reed, leads at the halfway stage.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 17:30.

Patrick Reed -9 4.03/1
Andy Sullivan -8 12.011/1
Francesco Molinari -7 22.021/1
Andrea Pavan -7 30.029/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -6 9.28/1
Tyrrell Hatton -5 10.519/2
Jayden Schaper -5 15.014/1
Oliver Lindell -5 30.029/1
Mikael Lindberg -5 50.049/1
Hennie Du Plessis -5 50.049/1
David Puig -4 20.019/1
Wenyi Ding -4 60.059/1 1
Shane Lowry -3 40.039/1
Tom McKibbin -3 75.074/1
Ewen Ferguson -3 120.0119/1
Rory McIlroy -2 15.014/1
Viktor Hovland -2 70.069/1
-3 and 100.099/1 bar

Reed heads into the weekend trading at 3/14.00 on the Exchange and that looks fair given he has a 50% strike-rate when leading or tied for the lead at halfway and that his three closest challengers are all winless over the last five years.

Alone in fifth and just three behind Reed, Nicolai Hojgaard is a fabulous desert golf exponent, and he won the DP World Tour Championship around the Earth Course in Dubai as recently as November 2023.

Hojgaard is the current second favourite and he's a tempting price at around 8/19.00 but he fluffed his lines back at the Earth Course two months ago when he blew a three-shot 36-hole lead to finish 11^th.

This a tough tournament to sort out at this stage and a strong case can be made about all the market leaders.

Trading at 9/110.00, the defending champ, Tyrrell Hatton, is another that looks fairly priced at the halfway stage after he smartened his second-round card up dramatically with a birdie from off the green at the par three 15^th, this eagle two at the 17^th, and a birdie four at the last.

World class @TyrrellHatton

The defending champion eagles the 17th to move into the top 10. #HeroDubaiDesertClassic | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/LzAwJHgEoK

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 23, 2026

Trailing by seven, Rory McIlroy has plenty to do over the weekend, but I wouldn't want to be laying him at the 14/115.00 he currently trades at.

Rory's a four-time winner of the event and he was ten strokes adrift at this stage two years ago before he defended the title to win the event for a fourth time.

I could have very easily left the event alone for now and waited to see where we are after round three but after much deliberation, I have had a couple of very small wagers.

Jayden Schaper, who ended 2025 with back-to-back victories is a 12/113.00 chance on the High Street and I thought that was slightly bigger than he should be, so I was happy to take 15.014/1.

He finished only tied 20^th at the Dubai Invitational last week after his two victories before Christmas but after rounds of 71 and 68 here, he's starting to warm up and it's well worth remembering that he shot back-to-back 64s in Mauritius before beating last week's Sony Open second, Ryan Gerard, in extra time, having sat six off the lead at halfway.

Full of confidence and clearly a player on the up, the 24-year-old South African looks a sporting bet from four adrift.

That looks a decent spot to be in at this stage given we haven't seen a 36-hole leader or co-leader win since Bryson DeChambeau six years ago and that three of the last six winners were four back at halfway.

My only other bet at halfway is a tiny one on the 2022 winner, Viktor Hovland.

The Norwegian sits alongside Rory in a tie for 20^th, seven behind Reed, so he too has plenty to do but I was happy to back him at 80.079/1.

Hovland has won three times on the PGA Tour having trailed by seven strokes at halfway so he's no forlorn hope.

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