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Schauffele wins by one in Japan
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Leader fairly priced with 18 to play
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Faint hopes remain with long-shot Forrest
09:35- October 12, 2025
After a seven-under-par 64 around Yokohama Country Club in round four, yesterday morning's in-play pick, Xander Schauffele, has won the Baycurrent Classic in Japan but I'm kicking myself for not backing Marco Penge at the Open de Espana as well, having written yesterday that I was sorely tempted to play the Englishman at around 7/24.50.
After a slow start to round three, Penge put the pedal to the medal, playing the last 12 holes in eight-under-par, and he heads in to round four leading by four. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:30.
Marco Penge -16 1.331/3
Joel Girrbach -12 23.022/1
Patrick Reed -11 13.525/2
Daniel Brown -11 23.022/1
Tom McKibbin -10 32.031/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -9 90.089/1
Grant Forrest -9 95.094/1
-9 and 60.059/1 bar
The last six men to lead a DP World Tour event by four have gone on to win and since 1996, 43 players in total have led a DP World Tour event by four, with 31 of them going on to win.
That's an impressive enough strike-rate of 72% and if we look specifically at this week's venue, Club de Campo Madrid, 10 of the 12 players to hold a clear lead with 18 to play in the last 30 years went on to convert so it's very hard to look past Penge.
I'm still hoping for a bit of a miracle with my Find me a 100 Winner pick, Grant Forrest, who has made a habit of shooting a low final round here, but it looks like a done deal now and I'm leaving the event alone.
09:10 - October 11, 2025
Pre-event 29.028/1 chance, Marco Penge, who's in search of his third DP World Tour victory of the season, leads the Open de Espana by a stroke with 36 holes to play but with 15 players within three of the lead and with the pre-event favourite and course specialist, Jon Rahm, five adrift, the event is still wide-open. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:00.
Marco Penge -9 4.47/2
Jeff Winther -8 20.019/1
Aaron Cockerill -8 30.029/1
Joel Girrbach -8 36.035/1
Patrick Reed -7 10.09/1
Joakim Lagergren -7 22.021/1
Daniel Brown -7 22.021/1
Julien Guerrier -7 28.027/1
Bernd Wiesberger -7 60.059/1
Alex Levy -7 70.069/1
Tom McKibbin -6 20.019/1
Angel Ayora -6 20.019/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -6 24.023/1
Dan Bradbury -6 50.049/1
Daniel Hillier -6 50.049/1
Andrew Wilson -6 100.099/1
Joost Luiten -5 80.079/1
Jon Rahm -4 12.523/2
David Puig -4 42.041/1
-4 and 60.059/1 bar
Including the last five editions of this event, there have been 13 previous DP World Tour events at Club de Campo since 1996, and two of the 13 course winners came from some way off the pace.
Steen Tinning won the 2002 edition of the now defunct Open de Madrid having trailed by six strokes at halfway and Ricardo Gonzalez won the 2003 edition having trailed by 11 after 36 holes, but the other 11 course winners were all inside the top eight places and within three strokes of the lead.
Last year's winner of this event, Angel Hidalgo, who led by four strokes at this stage, was the sixth of the 13 course winners this century to be leading or tied for the lead at halfway and Penge is a fair price to make it seven from 14.
I was sorely tempted to play the Englishman at around 7/24.50 but with so many players in the mix, I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see what today brings.
Over on the PGA Tour, after a very soggy third round in Japan, there's just 18 holes to play at the Baycurrent Classic.
Max Greyserman had led the tournament by four at the halfway stage, but he was one of a number of players to struggle on the back nine in round three.
Having played the first nine holes in five-under-par, Dave Tindall's each-way fancy, Si Woo Kim, who has been matched at a low of 4.57/2, shot three-over coming home, and Alex Smalley, who was matched at a low of 6.25/1 endured a shambolic finish to his third round.
Smalley's double-bogey at the par three 16th, which was followed by dropped shots at 17 and 18, had to be seen to be believed. Having missed his par save from 12 feet, he missed his bogey putt from what looked like inside a foot and it clearly rattled him.
Greyserman managed to get round in level par, thanks to some great putting, but it's his co-leader, Xander Schauffele, that's the man to beat now. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with Sportsbook prices to back at 9:00.
Xander Schauffele -12 6/52.20
Max Greyserman -12 11/43.75
Si Woo Kim -9 12/113.00
Michael Thorbjornsen -9 14/115.00
Garrick Higgo -9 16/117.00
Byeong Hun An -9 18/119.00
Nico Echavarria -9 22/123.00
Min Woo Lee -8 30/131.00
Sahith Theegala -8 40/141.00
-7 and 80/181.00 bar
There have only been three events staged at Yokohama Country Club - the Japan Open back in 2018 and the 2023 and 2024 editions of the Yokohama Minato Championship on the Japan Tour - so we don't have a big enough sample size to draw too many conclusions but for what it's worth, all three course winners were sitting first of second with 18 to play.
The forecast suggests a better day tomorrow and with the course softened, we can expect the scoring to be low, which should suit the frontrunners.
Greyserman didn't impress in round three and at odds-against, Schauffele looks fairly priced.
After a slow start on Thursday, the two-time major winner has played nicely over the last two days, and he's most definitely the man to beat.
Having suffered with a rib injury at the start of 2025, Schauffele's last victory came in the Open Championship last year, but this looks like a golden opportunity for him to return to the winning ways.
He's led or been tied for the lead with a round to go 14 times in total during his career and he's only gone on to win six times, but he's been far better in-contention in recent years, converting five of his last eight 54-hole leads.
He won Olympic gold in Japan four years ago and a second victory on Japanese soil looks likely.
Back Xander Schauffele
The market is still sorting itself out on the Exchange, but anything around 2.47/5 looks very fair.
11:55 - October 10, 2025
We've reached the halfway stage of the Baycurrent Classic and punters appear to have a decision to make. Back the four-stroke leader at odds of around 9/43.25 or exercise caution. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard in Japan, with prices to back at 11:40.
Max Greyserman -12 3.1511/5
Xander Schauffele -8 5.59/2
Alex Noren -8 9.28/1
Alex Smalley -8 18.017/1
Si Woo Kim -7 15.529/2
Sahith Theegala -7 32.031/1
Nico Echavarria -7 34.033/1
Brian Campbell -7 90.089/1
-6 and 36.035/1 bar
It's not easy to take a wide margin lead into the weekend and only one of the last five men to lead by four strokes at halfway in a PGA Tour event has gone on to win (Brian Harman at the Texas Open in April) and he only shot 72-75 over the weekend.
In total, 51 players have led a PGA Tour event by four strokes at halfway this century and 22 of them went on to win.
That's a strike rate of 43% but if we take the imperious Tiger Woods out of those stats, the percentage drops from 43% to 37% and the leader starts to look fairly priced at best at just over 2/13.00.
Greyserman, who was generally a 75.074/1 chance before the off, has plenty of experience now and he wouldn't be winning out of turn.
He traded at as short as 1.061/18 during round four of last year's Wyndham Championship, won by Aaron Rai, and he hit 1.261/4 in this event a few months later when he led by a stroke with just three holes to play before finishing tied for second behind Nico Echavarria.
This is the first time he's held a clear lead at halfway but he finished fourth at last year's World Wide Technology Championship after being tied for the lead at this stage and in addition to getting beat at the Wyndham, having led with 18 to play, he was tied for the lead after 54 holes in the Simmons Bank Open on the Korn Ferry Tour two years ago where he shot 79 in round four to finish tied for 44th!
He's come a long way in the last two years, he sounds confident, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him close out this time around but he's short enough for me.
Trailing by four, Xander Schauffele is the very obvious danger after he matched Greyserman's eight-under-par 63 today but the one I like at the prices is the defending champ, Echavarria.
Sitting alongside my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Brian Campbell, in a tie for fifth, the Colombian looks worth a tiny wager at 33/134.00 given he's generally a 25/126.00 shot on the High Street.
It may be a good week for B.B writers. Also in the mix and on the same score (-7) are two of Dave Tindall's each-way picks - Si Woo Kim and Sahith Theegala.
Back Nico Echavarria
Over on the DP World Tour, round two of the Open de Espana is well underway and I'll be back to look at that one at the halfway stage but at the time of writing, it's a wide-open affair with 16 players seperated by three strokes at the top of the leaderboard.
The live coverage starts on Sky Sports at 12:30.