Find Me a 100 Winner: Five long-shots to back from 99/1 to 799/1

• Forrest kicks off Steve's long odds quintet at fair price of 99/1100.00

• Fichardt is vastly over-priced for Madrid glory at 799/1800.00

• Read Steve's Open de Espana preview here

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One of last week's picks, 280.0279/1 chance Jacob Skov Olesen, finished tied for fifth in the Alfred Dunhill Links and he was matched at a low of 11.010/1 in-running, but that was a bit disappointing given he trailed by just two with a round to go. It was a fairly close call, so fingers crossed we can get even closer this week.

As was the case last week, I've got just one pick on the PGA Tour this week, in the Baycurrent Classic in Japan, but I've got four long-shot fancies in the DP World Tour event.

As highlighted in my preview, the Open de Espana has been a very good event for outsiders.

Since Miguel Angel Jimenez won his 21^st and final DP World Tour title in this tournament 11 years ago in Girona, the event has been won by either this week's favourite, Jon Rahm, who has triumphed three times, or a long-shot priced at odds in excess of 110.0109/1. Last year's edition was won by Spain's Angel Hidalgo who went off at as high as 420.0419/1.

It's now 10 years since James Morrison won at 500.0499/1 and three of the last four winners have gone off at a triple-figure price. I'm kicking off my portfolio of four in Madrid with a Scotsman who's twice finished with a flourish in Madrid to be placed.

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Open de Espana bet #1 - Back Grant Forrest @ 100.099/1

Given he won the Nexo Championship as recently as August, that he finished 11^th last week in the Alfred Dunhill Links, and that he's twice finished third at this venue - the Club de Campo Villa de Madrid - I really didn't expect Scotland's Grant Forrest to drift out to 100.099/1 so I couldn't leave him out now that he has.

He finished third here in 2021, after playing the last seven holes in seven-under-par and, having sat tied for 22^nd and 10 back after 54 holes last year, shot a 64 on Sunday which saw him finish third again.

The venue clearly suits his eye and he looks a fair price at 100.099/1.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

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Open de Espana bet #2 - Richard Sterne @ 240.0239/1

My second selection, Richard Sterne, is an equally straightforward pick. He won the first of his six DP World Tour at this venue way back in 2004 and arrives in form having finished third behind Tyrrell Hatton at the weather-shortened Alfred Dunhill Links on Sunday.

The 44-year-old South African was tied for the lead with 18 to play but playing Carnoustie in the final round was always going to put him at a disadvantage over MacIntyre, who's third and final round was played out at the easier St Andrews.

Sterne hasn't won anywhere since 2013 but he's been dogged with chronic hip issues for years and he went two years without playing at all between December 2022 and December 2024.

Most of this year has been a struggle and, until he finished 46^th in the European Masters at the end of August, he'd missed the cut in 12 of the 17 events he'd played in. So the fact that he's now finished 15^th in the Irish Open, 17^th in the Open de France and third last week in his last three starts bodes well.

In his pomp, he reached as high as 29 in the Official World Rankings, he would very often hold his form once he found it, and to varying degrees, he's telegraphed all his victories on the DP World Tour so this run of form is eye-catching.

Sterne won his last title, the Joburg Open, a week after finishing runner-up in the Dubai Desert Classic, he won the Wales Open in 2007 having finished third at Wentworth the week before and he won back-to-back events back in 2008 after finishing sixth in Hong Kong.

Richard Sterne secured his playing rights for 2026 thanks to a T3 finish

He jumped 50 places from outside the provisional cut-off to inside the top 70 on the Race to Dubai.#DunhillLinks pic.twitter.com/KLnOt8fx5s

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) October 6, 2025

His third-place finish on Sunday has secured his card for next year so he can relax this week and build on his impressive recent run.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

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Open de Espana bet #3 - Back Pablo Larrazabal @ 520.0519/1

The 42-year-old Spaniard, Pablo Larrazabal, is another veteran with course form who has recently performed well.

Larrazabal finished third here on debut in the Madrid Masters back in 2008 and he's always made the cut in his five appearances in this event, finishing 20^th in 2021 and 2023 and 29^th last year when not playing particularly well.

It's now two years since he won his ninth and final DP World Tour and he hasn't been firing on all cylinders since he was beaten in a playoff in Bahrain back in February. He's a ridiculously big price, however, given how prolific he is and given he sat fifth and just two off the lead at the halfway stage of the prestigious BMW PGA Championship three starts ago.

A 76 in round three destroyed his chances that week but he bounced back with a 68 on Sunday so he's shown signs of a recovery recently and he's over-priced at a venue where the experienced veterans can compete.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

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Open de Espana bet #4 - Back Darren Fichardt @ 800.0799/1

 

When Sterne won the Open de Madrid here in 2004, he sat tied for third and one off the lead after three rounds and the two men ahead of him were England's Paul Broadhurst and fellow Pretorian, Darren Ficahrdt, who eventually went on to finish sixth.

Now 50, Fichardt has been playing on the Legends Tour, where he's already finished second twice, but given he finished fourth in the South African Open back in March, and as high as fifth in the BMW at Wentworth just last month, he may not quite be done at this level yet.

It's only two years since he won on the Challenge Tour and his exploits at Durban Country Club (a similar venue to this) in March, and at Wentworth last month, suggest he's vastly overpriced this week. I was more than happy to chance him modestly.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

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Baycurrent Classic bet - Back Brian Campbell @ 420.0419/1

As highlighted in the preview, this week's PGA Tour event, the Baycurrent Classic, takes place at a new venue so we're in the dark to a certain extent but one man looks a bit big if accuracy off the tee transpires to be as important as I suspect it may be.

A two-time winner this year on the PGA Tour, at the Mexico Open in February and the John Deere Classic in July, Brian Campell has been matched at as high as 500.0499/1 this week. That seems a bit crazy for a player who, as well as winning twice this year, consistently ranks inside the top 10 for Driving Accuracy.

He was somewhat fortunate to claim his first title when his tee shot in extra-time rebounded back off a tree, but he was an impressive victor around the tree-lined Deere Run layout in July.

Luckiest break ever?!

Brian Campbell's ball bounces off the trees and stays in bounds on the second playoff hole! pic.twitter.com/KWBMbGtaKE

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 23, 2025

He's not in great form but he won in Mexico with form figures reading W-51-MC and at the John Deere Classic after a missed cut in the Charles Schwab Challenge, another withdrawal, this time at the Memorial Tournament, and a weekend off at the US Open, where he shot rounds of 79 and 78. Unlike Sterne, he can't be described as someone who telegraphs his wellbeing.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

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Now read up on Open de España 2025 course and current form stats

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