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Stats suggest Scotsman's a great price
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Trio tied for second and four back
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Odds-on Fox finishes poorly
08:20 - June 2, 2024
Having played his first five holes of round three in four under-par at the Canadian Open, my 130.0129/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Ryan Fox, led by four strokes and he met the second lay back target of even money.
Matched at a low of 1.991/1, he looked in total control of his game but after missing a 13-foot birdie putt at the eighth, he lost his way quite badly, bogeying four of his next seven holes before paring the last four to post a level-par 70.
In contrast, his playing partner, Robert MacIntyre, started poorly but a chip-in birdie at the seventh arrested his slide and he holed some monster putts on the back-nine to get back in front.
This 49-footer on 15 was the longest of three birdies in-a-row from the 14th hole and they were followed with a lengthy eagle at the 17th! Having been matched at 20.019/1 early on in round four, he now heads in to round four with a four-stroke lead.
Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:15.
Robert MacIntyre -14 2.0811/10
Mackenzie Hughes -10 9.89/1
Ryan Fox -10 14.527/2
Ben Griffin -10 15.014/1
Tommy Fleetwood -9 12.011/1
Sam Burns -9 17.016/1
Joel Dahmen -9 50.049/1
Trace Crowe -9 60.059/1
Aaron Rai -8 46.045/1
Victor Perez -8 95.094/1
Rory McIlroy -7 25.024/1
Corey Conners -7 80.079/1
Tom Kim -7 90.089/1
-7 and 200.0199/1 bar
This is the fifth staging of the Canadian Open at Hamilton this century and the last winner here, Rory McIlroy in 2019, is the only winner to be in front with a round to go but the furthest any of the four victors trailed by through 54 holes was three strokes.
Tied with Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar and trading at 2/13.00 through 54 holes, Rory shot a remarkable 61 on Sunday to win by seven but the three third round leaders before him here were all beaten.
Hidemichi Tanka was beaten by two by Bob Tway, having led by two, Justin Rose shot 74 on Sunday to tumble from one in front to 14th place, beaten by seven, in 2006, and Robert Garrigus was beaten by Jim Furyk by a stroke in 2012, having led by a shot.
Tway was three adrift in 2003 and Furyk and the 2012 winner, Scott Piercy, both trailed by two.
Since 1996, 64 players have held a four-stroke lead in a 72-hole stroke play event on the PGA Tour and 47 of them went on to win.
That's a return of 73.5% suggesting odds of around even money are very fair for MacIntyre.
Only last week, Davis Riley became the fifth in-a-row to successfully convert from four in front and I wrote in Monday's Debrief about how generously priced these clear leaders appear to be and that's the case again here.
MacIntyre was brilliant on the back-nine yesterday, and if he hits the ground running today, he won't be caught but I'm far from convinced that will happen.
The Scot was a bag of nerves early on in round three and if that happens again today, he may not be able to recover.
The stats suggest that he's a fantastic price at odds-against but I'm happy to leave him alone.
I'm hopeful (although far from confident) that Fox can bounce back and pre-event 34.033/1 pick, Sam Burns, is still on the premises but the big danger could still be Rory McIlroy.
McIlroy missed a short putt on 10 and he messed up the par five 17th but he played brilliantly yesterday and despite trailing by seven, he can't be dismissed.
McIntyre is not a player that's impressed in-contention and a super low round by the world number three may put some heat on.
I've also backed Rory's playing partner, Tom Kim, at 90.089/1. He's another player capable of ridiculously low scores, as demonstrated at the Wyndham Championship in 2022 when he shot 61 on Sunday to romp to victory.
18:50 - June 1, 2024
The third round of the European Open is all done and dusted, and we're left with an intriguing leaderboard with a round to go. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 18:45.
Laurie Canter -12 3.3512/5
Guido Migliozzi -12 3.814/5
Niklas Norgaard -11 5.79/2
Tom Vaillant -10 18.535/2
Jannik De Brun -10 25.024/1
Bernd Wiesberger -9 15.014/1
Tom McKibbin -8 30.029/1
Jayden Schapher -8 50.049/1
Ivan Cantero -8 70.069/1
Keita Nakajima -7 65.064/1
-7 and 200.0199/1 bar
As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, three of the five winners of this event here at Green Eagle have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go and Paul Casey only trailed by a stroke after three rounds when he took the title in 2019, but we've witnessed all sorts of drama here.
Alex Levy was matched at 1.011/100 before losing a playoff here in 2017 and the 2022 winner, Kalle Samooja, who won by two, was trailing by seven in a tie for 22nd with a round to go so winning from off the pace is clearly possible.
It's a tough track but low scores are achievable and they're more likely to occur from off the pace.
I've taken some huge prices about five players trailing by five and six strokes detailed below but the two players I like at the head of the leaderboard are Migliozzi and Bernd Wiesberger.
There's a tiny bit of rain in the forecast overnight but with the temperature rising this already tough track is only going to get harder and the co-leader, Migliozzi, should relish that.
The three-time DP Tour winner, came from off the pace to win at the Ryder Cup venue, Paris National, in 2022 and in two starts at the US Open, the hardest major of the four, he's finished fourth and 14th.
The Italian has never held a clear advantage through three rounds and this is only the third time he's been tied for lead the with a round to go. He won the Kenya Open in 2019, his first win on the DP World Tour, in 2019, having been tied at the top through 54 holes but he slipped from tied first to tied 28th at the British Masters last year.
Canter is trading at a shorter price than the Italian, but I definitely prefer Migliozzi's chances.
Canter is yet to win on the DP World Tour, and he's failed to convert a lead or co-lead on the DP World Tour three times. He also lost a playoff at the KPMG Trophy on the Challenge Tour in 2019 having been tied for the lead through 54 holes.
Trailing by just one, and fresh off his runners-up finish last week in Belgium, Niklas Norgaard, is well fancied at around 9/25.50 but he was extremely nervous at the start of round four last week and that's off-putting.
Sitting tied for fourth and two off the lead, Janik De Bruyn is hanging on well after his blistering start on Thursday but winning is a huge ask for the rank outsider and France's Tom Vaillant was a bit jumpy once he hit the front today.
The prolific Dane, Bernd Wiesberger, will have some positive vibes tomorrow given he fired a 64 here in 2019 to finish fifth and he might be worth chancing if he drifts a little more from the 15.014/1 he currently trades at.
11:30 - June 1, 2024
Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns dominated the Canadian Open market after the opening round but both men shot over-par rounds on Friday.
McIlroy looked out of sorts all day long and Burns, who I backed before the off at 34.033/1, started his day with a double-bogey six at the first and was up-and-down throughout the round after that, eventually posting a one-over-par 71, which one stroke better than Rory.
Dave Tindall's each-way fancy, Robert MacIntyre, posted a four-under-par 66 in the morning to hit the front but he was caught late in the day when my 130.0129/1 Find Me a 100 Winner selection, Ryan Fox, birdied the 18th to post a six-under-par 64. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:20.
Ryan Fox -10 4.67/2
Robert MacIntyre -10 4.77/2
Joel Dahmen -8 19.018/1
Mackenzie Hughes -7 10.09/1
Andrew Novak -7 21.020/1
David Skinns -7 36.035/1
Sam Burns -6 12.011/1
Selected others
Corey Conners -4 38.037/1
Tommy Fleetwood -3 46.045/1
Rory McIlroy -2 25.024/1
-6 and 50.049/1 bar
Although slightly bigger before the off, I'm not surprised to see Fox trading at fractionally shorter than MacIntyre at the halfway stage, even though the pair are tied.
The more experienced Fox has won some big titles on the DP World Tour recently (the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2022 and the BMW PGA Championship last year) and on the five occasions the two have been paired together (three times on the PGA Tour and twice on the DP World Tour), the Kiwi has come out on top.
Both are looking for their first victories on the PGA Tour and the Kiwi is arguably better placed to make the breakthrough, although MacIntyre is clearly nicely relaxed with his dad on the bag for the first time.
Looking at their records when leading or co-leading at halfway, Fox has converted four of nine 36-hole leads and MacIntyre has failed to convert on either of the two occasions that he's led at halfway.
Neither man has led or co-led on the PGA Tour and neither man has impressed over the weekend when in-the-mix on the PGA Tour either so both may be vulnerable.
Fox has never been inside the top-five at halfway but on the three occasions he's been inside the top-ten he's gone backwards over the weekend and MacIntyre finished poorly three weeks ago at the Myrtle Beach Classic after he'd sat second at halfway, shooting 68-72 over the weekend to finish 13th.
Looking at previous results at Hamilton, Scott Piercy was tied for the lead 12 years ago but on the other three occasions Hamilton has hosted the event this century, the winner has come from off the pace.
Bob Tway sat 26th and five back in 2003, Jim Furyk was fifth and one off the lead in 2006 and Rory was 13th and five off the lead here in 2019. He went on to win by seven!
If the two frontrunners are to fail, home hero, Mackenzie Hughes, is the most likely winner according to the market but he finished poorly yesterday (bogeying two of his last three holes) and he'll feel plenty of pressure over the weekend, although the death of a close friend is inspiring him.
Sam Burns looks fairly priced if he can put yesterday's rollercoaster front nine behind him, but I've backed Rory this morning at 26.025/1.
Trailing by eight, the world number two has plenty to do but he's capable of special things and he's delivered at the track over the weekend previously.
Odds of around 25/126.00 aren't terrific given he's so far back but it'll collapse if he starts well today.
09:10 - June 1, 2024
Garrick Porteous returned to the course this morning at the European Open and played his final four holes in one-under-par, so he's now moved on to eight-under-par and he's now trading at 38.037/1 to win the tournament.
The halfway leader, Laurie Canter, has shortened up fractionally to 2.285/4 and I've backed Jordan Smith at 50.049/1.
I'll be back shortly with a look at the Canadian Open where at the halfway stage, my 130.0129/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Ryan Fox, is tied for the lead with Dave Tindall's each-way fancy, Robert MacIntyre.
22:00 - May 31, 2024
After a delay on Thursday because of fog and a late start today due to a waterlogged course, we haven't quite reached the halfway stage of the European Open, but the stage is set for the weekend.
Following an extremely impressive bogey-free seven-under-par 66 around the tough and long Green Eagle Golf Course, pre-event 34.033/1 chance, Laurie Canter, has eased three strokes clear and he's the man to beat. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 21:50.
Laurie Canter -12 2.3211/8
Niklas Norgaard -9 6.611/2
Jannik De Bruyn -9 25.024/1
Garrick Porteous -7 (thru 14) 65.064/1
Tom McGibbon -6 15.529/2
Guido Migliozzi -6 27.026/1
Yuto Katsuragawa -6 32.031/1
Pablo Larrazabal -6 40.039/1
Jayden Schaper -6 40.039/1
-5 and 44.043/1 bar
As a player with a neat and tidy tee-to-green game, with an often cold putter, in search of his first DP World Tour title, Canter fits the bill at this event but I'm far from convinced he's worth siding with at less than 2.47/5.
We've had one Challenge Tour tournament here and five DP World Tour events and we're yet to see a halfway leader kick on and win.
Only one of the six course winners have been outside the top-seven places after 36 holes, but two winners have trailed by six with two rounds to go and despite his sizable lead, the leader looks a bit vulnerable, although the new irons are certainly working so far!
Canter's sole success to date was on the Japan Tour nine years and despite holding a clear 36 hole lead twice previously and three 54 hole lead or co-leads, he's yet to win on the DP World Tour.
On the last occasion he led with a round to go (led by three) at the Andalucía Masters in 2021, he shot 76 on Sunday to finish fourth - beaten by four.
This looks like a tournament in which you can take a chance on one or two chasers at a big price.
The current second favourite, Niklas Norgaard Moller, rallied brilliantly late on to finish tied for second last week but he was a bag of nerves at the start of round four and may not quite be ready to win, and the man alongside him, the first-round leader, Jannik De Bruyn, began the week trading at 900.0899/1.
His opening nine-under-par 64 was some knock and he'll be happy enough with today's level-par 73but it's difficult to imagine him being there or thereabouts on Sunday afternoon.
Garrick Porteous has four holes to finish off in the morning but three of the four are averaging over-par and he's more likely to lose ground than make it up so we can survey the current leaderboard, confident that it won't look much different when round three starts.
I'm happy with my two in-play picks from yesterday - Guido Migliozzi and Pablo Larrazabal - but the one that interests me now is the pre-event second favourite and 2017 winner, Jordan Smith, who trails by eight.
He's got plenty of traffic to pass but after an opening 74, he's back on the fringes of contention following his five-under-par 68 today so I've got my eye on the market to see if anyone offers up a price of 46.045/1 or bigger.
08:45 - May 31, 2024
Fog caused a lengthy delay to the start of this year's European Open on the DP World Tour yesterday and a flooded course has resulted in another late start today.
Pre-event 900.0899/1 shot, Jannik De Bruyn, leads by as many as four strokes after a quite remarkable nine-under-par 64 but it's England's Laurie Canter, and the defending champ, Tom McKibbin, that head the market.
Canter shot five-under-par in round one to sit tied for second and McKibbin is one of seven players that shot four-under.
There's a long way to go there, thanks to the delays, but I've already backed a couple in-running - Guido Migliozzi and Pablo Larrazabal - who both posted three-under-par 70s in round one.
I'll be back later today to see where we are but they'll do very well to catch up and reach the halfway stage.
Over at the Canadian Open, the pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, who won by seven back in 2019 on the last occasion that Hamilton hosted the event, was matched at a high of 11.010/1 after a pedestrian start to round one but he finished in style, birdying three of his last five holes to post -4 and he's back at the head of the market, trading at 3/14.00.
It looked for much of the day as though my pre-event pick, Sam Burns, would end the day tied for the lead with huge outsider, Sean O'Hair, but England's David Skinns, posted eight-under-par late in the day to pip the pair by one.
Rory and Burns now dominate the market with Tommy Fleetwood (-3) and Dave Tindall's pick, Robert MacIntyre (-5), the only other players trading at less than 20.019/1.
My two Find me a 100 Winner picks in Germany have started slowly but my 130.0129/1 fancy in Canada, Ryan Fox, sits alongside Rory in a tie for sixth so I'm going to sit on my hands here for now and see what today brings.
European Open pre-event pick:
Adrian Otaegui @ 60.059/1
In-Play picks:
Guido Migliozzi @ 30.029/1
Pablo Larrazabal @ 55.054/1
Jordan Smith @ 50.049/1
Thriston Lawrence @ 210.0209/1
Rafa Cabrera-Bello @ 210.0209/1
Dylan Fritelli @ 210.0209/1
Julien Guerrier @ 240.0239/1
Tom Lewis @ 250.0249/1
Canadian Open pre-event pick:
Sam Burns @ 34.033/1
In-Pay Picks:
Rory McIlroy @ 26.025/1
Tom Kim @ 90.089/1