The Punter's In-Play Blog: Scottish Open champ the value with 18 to play

• Riley up by two with 18 to play

• Stats against the frontrunner

• Matsuyama chanced from off the pace

11:10 - January 18, 2026

Following rounds of 67, 64 and 67, pre-event 500.0499/1 chance, Davis Riley, leads the Sony Open by two strokes with 18 holes to play. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 11:00.

Davis Riley -12 4.131/10
Chris Gotterup -10 6.25/1
Harry Hall -10 6.411/2
Kevin Roy -10 13.012/1
Ryan Gerard -9 13.012/1
Nick Taylor -9 13.525/2
John Parry -9 19.018/1
Corey Connors -8 20.019/1
Patrick Rodgers -8 42.041/1
Adam Svensson -8 46.045/1
Si Woo Kim -7 42.041/1
Seonghyeon Kim -7 140.0139/1
Hideki Matsuyama -6 75.074/1
-6 and 200.0199/1 bar

This is the third time Davis Riley has held a clear advantage with a round to go and he's fared well previously.

He lost a playoff to the defending champion, Sam Burns, at the 2022 Valspar Championship, after he'd led by two with 18 to play, but he went on to win the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge by five strokes, having led by four.

The 29-year-old is the eighth man to take a two-stroke lead into the final round at Waialae this century and Jerry Kelly (2002), Jimmy Walker (2015) and Matt Kuchar (2019) all went on to win but Arron Baddeley lost a playoff to Ernie Els in 2002 and the last three to lead by two, Branden Steele (2021), Russell Henley (2022) and Hayden Buckley (2023) all got beat. Although all three traded at odds-on during round four.

The late Grayson Murray was tied for the lead with a round to go two years ago but six of the last eight 54-hole leaders have been beaten.

That's not a great stat for Riley backers but coming from way off the pace looks tough given every winner in the last 30 years has been inside the top six places and within four of the lead.

Those stats suggest that the 2022 winner, Hideki Matsuyama, has too much to do from six back but I was happy to chance him modestly at a huge price.

The Japanese won the Genesis Invitational by three in 2024 having trailed by six with 18 to play and he lost a playoff at the St Jude Invitational in 2021 having trailed by nine with a round to go!

Trailing by three and tied for fifth, yesterday's in-play pick, Ryan Gerard, is nicely poised for a final day charge but the one I like towards the head of the market is last year's impressive Scottish Open winner, Chris Gotterup, who sits tied for second alongside the first round leader, Kevin Roy and Cornishman, Harry Hall.

Hall's a classy player and a PGA Tour winner (won the 2024 ISCO Championship in a playoff) but I really can't see why the Sportsbook have him trading at a shorter price than Gotterup.

With two PGA Tour titles already in the bag, the world number 28 looks more likely to convert here than the world number 61, Hall, and he trades at a shorter price on the Exchange, so the industry-best 11/26.50 looks tasty.

21:30 - January 17, 2026

With just 18 holes to play at the Dubai Invitational the pre-event 300.0299/1 chance, Nacho Elvira, leads by two. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:20.

Nacho Elvira -8 4.03/1
Shane Lowry -6 5.69/2
Marcus Armitage -6 10.09/1
Dylan Frittelli -6 14.527/2
Rory McIlroy -5 4.84/1
David Puig -4 18.535/2
Thorbjorn Olesen -4 22.021/1
Jacques Kruyswijk -4 70.069/1
-3 and 60.059/1 bar

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, 54-hole leaders have a great record at Dubai Creek but I'm more than happy to take on the frontrunning Spaniard, Elvira.

The 38-year-old has an impressive 60% strike rate when leading with a round to go but that doesn't tell the whole story.

He won the first four events in which he led or was co-leading with 18 to play but they were all on the HotelPlanner Tour and although he's won twice when leading on the DP World Tour, he's been far from convincing.

Elvira won the Cazoo Open at Celtic Mannor in a playoff, having led by six, and he won the Soudal Open in 2024 by a stroke having led by four with a round to go.

Trailing by two, Shane Lowry is a huge danger, but he hasn't won an individual event since he edged out Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm by a stroke at the BMW PGA Championship in 2022.

Marcus Armitage is the same age as the leader, and he's won only once before, and Dylan Frittelli is a tempting price at fractionally bigger than Englishman but I'm happy to take a chance on Rory.

Having already been matched at odds-on as early as Friday, Rory lost his way a bit in round two but after a quite remarkable par save on the final hole today he trails by just three strokes and he's the value with 18 to play.

Rory McIlroy with an incredible recovery shot from the rocks at 18 #EmiratesFlyBetterMoments | @emirates pic.twitter.com/MqzMkUSyd7

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 17, 2026

Rory is trading at around the same price he was at the start of the week and that looks very fair given the calibre of the leading pack.

Over on the PGA Tour, Dave Tindall's each-way fancy, and Matt Cooper's pick for the Find Me a 100 Winner column, Seonghyeon Kim, is tied for the lead at the halfway stage of the Sony Open but the one I like at this stage is Ryan Gerard.

Last year's Barracuda Championship winner hit the headlines just before Christmas when he travelled all the way to Mauritius in a last-ditch attempt to get into the top 50 in the world to secure a place in the US Masters.

Requiring at least a tied fourth in the Mauritius Open, Gerard was beaten in a playoff by Jayden Schaper at the second extra hole when the young South African eagled the par five 18^th but he must be over the moon to have made the journey worthwhile and after a pedestrian start on Thursday, he's bang in-contention at halfway in Hawaii.

Trailing by two in a tie for 10^th after rounds of 69 and 64, the 26-year-old looks a sporting price with two rounds to play.

I'll be back tomorrow with a detailed look at the Sony Open with a round to go.

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