Two tied at the top at Sedgefield
Glover the uneasy favourite
Henley needs to find fairways in round four
10:40 - August 5, 2023
Pre-event pick, Russell Henley, was matched at a low of 2.226/5 yesterday as he started the third round of the Wyndham Championship nicely but having played the front nine in four-under-par to make the turn with a two-stroke lead, he lost his way on the back nine.
Henley's driving was just off after the turn and missing fairways always causes issues at Sedgefield so having looked in control early on, he needed to close with back-to-back birdies to remain in touch.
Lucas Glover and Billy Horschel knocked it round in 62 and 63 strokes respectively and they head in to round four with a narrow advantage over Henley. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:30.
Lucas Glover -18 3.185/40
Billy Horschel -18 3.1511/5
Russell Henley -17 3.613/5
Byeong Hun An -15 15.014/1
Stephan Jaeger -13 55.054/1
-11 and 600.0599/1 bar
The last four Wyndham winners have all been trailing with a round to go.
Although tied for the lead at halfway, Tom Kim began round four trailing Sungjae Im by two 12 months ago, Kevin Kisner in 2021 and Jim Herman in 2020 both trailed by four, and the 2019 champ, J.T Poston, was three adrift but prior to that, 54-hole leaders had a very strong record.
Carl Pettersson was tied for the lead through three rounds when he won here in 2008, on the first occasion the tournament was staged at Sedgefield since 1976, and he was one of eight third round leaders or co-leaders to get the job done in the 11 renewals between 2008 and 2018.
And since the tournament returned to Sedgefield 15 years ago, four strokes is the furthest any winner has trailed by with a round to go so it looks like we can't look past the front four.
Lucas Glover heads the market but he's the one I fancy the least of the front three in the market. With just one win in 12 years, the 2009 US Open winner can't be described as prolific, and he was very disappointing in-contention at the Barbasol Championship in his penultimate start.
Glover shot 64 to win the John Deere Classic from four strokes adrift two years ago and if he's going to win his fifth PGA Tour title, he's going to have to do something he's never done before.
All Glover's victories have been from off the pace and on the three occasions he's led or been tied for the lead through three rounds he's finished 14th, fourth and third.
In search of his eighth PGA Tour success and with a far superior record in-contention, Horschel should be the clear favourite.
Like Glover, Horschel has the added distraction of needing to win or finish second to get into the FedEx St Jude Championship next week (connotations here) but unlike Glover, the Texan has a solid record when leading with a round to go.
Henley has converted three of five 54-hole leads or co-leads on the PGA Tour and with Henley appearing to have lost his way off the tee, he's the man to beat today.
An appears to have a bit too much to do if any of the front three turn up today and having failed to get Horschel onside yesterday at 6/17.00, I'm left hoping that Henley can get his driving back in order.
If he can start finding fairways again, and without the distraction of playoff qualification, Henley is by no means out of it but it's absolutely imperative that his driving improves.
There have been 14 scores of 61 or better since the Wyndham Championship returned to Sedgefield in 2008 so low scores are out there but you can't score from the rough and it's not a surprise to see the two men tied at the top ranking first and second for Driving Accuracy with a round to go.
11:45 - August 5, 2023
The first-round leader of the Wyndham Championship, Russell Henley, wasn't in the scintillating form he was in on Thursday afternoon, but he birdied his last two holes of round two to post a four-under-par 66 yesterday morning and for the second time in three years, he heads into the weekend with the lead at Sedgefield Country Club. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:40.
Russell Henley -12 3.3512/5
Billy Horschel -11 7.06/1
Brendon Todd -10 9.617/2
Lucas Glover -10 11.010/1
Byeong Hun An -10 11.521/2
Adam Svensson -10 12.523/2
Ludvig Aberg -8 22.021/1
J.T Poston -7 30.029/1
Stephan Jaeger -7 50.049/1
Brandon Wu -7 90.089/1
Troy Merritt -7 180.0179/1
-6 and 90.089/1 bar
Having backed the leader before the off I'm obviously hopeful he can kick on and get the job done but I'm far from convinced he's a great price this morning at just a shade over 2/13.00.
Henley was four in front here at halfway two years ago but eventually missed out on the six-man playoff by a stroke and he was beaten in a playoff at the Sony Open in January last year having led by three at halfway.
He did trade at long odds-on on both occasions and he was an impressive winner at the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico in November when he converted a three-stroke 36-hole lead in style so I certainly wouldn't describe him as flaky in-contention.
Henley absolutely loves it at Sedgefield and if he can get a few birdies on the easier front nine today he may well kick on and emulate last week's winner, Lee Hodges, who won the 3M Open wire-to-wire.
After yesterday's career-best 62 in round two, Billy Horschel, who also has plenty of course form in the bank already, is the very obvious danger to Henley and I was sorely tempted to get him onside at odds of around 6/17.00.
Billy's return to form is admirable given only two months ago he shot 84 in round one of the Memorial Tournament when defending and it just shows what a gutsy competitor he is.
Henley will do well to shake Horschel off if he can follow up yesterday's low round but as always, that's a big if. It's never easy to back up a low score and that's one of the reasons I'm not getting him onside.
I've also looked at his record when sitting this close to the lead at halfway and it wasn't as good as I thought it might be. Horschel has sat second at halfway seven times on the PGA Tour and the only time he went on to win was at the Byron Nelson Championship in 2017 when he trailed Jason Kokrak by as many as five strokes at halfway.
This is far from a two-man race and looking at the results here since the event returned to Sedgefield in 2008, a couple of winners have been trailing by a significant number of strokes at halfway.
Tom Kim was tied for the lead at this stage 12 months ago but when Henley failed from the front two years ago Kevin Kisner won from seven adrift and 12th place and the 2020 winner, Jim Herman, sat tied for 36th and five back.
We've also seen a couple of players make it to a playoff having trailed by as many as seven, eight, nine and even ten strokes but they've needed help from the leaders and in-between 2008 and 2019, all 12 winners were inside the top-ten and within three of the lead at halfway and half of them were in front at this stage.
Dave Tindall's each-way fancy, Brendon Todd, is the biggest danger to the front two according to the market but he's not for me at less than 10/111.00. He had a great chance to win the John Deere Classic last month, but he threw the event away with some poor play under pressure.
Of the four players within two of Henley on -10, Adam Svensson is the one I came closest to backing at around 12/113.00 but after much deliberation, other than throwing a few pounds at Troy Merritt at a huge price, I'm going to leave the event alone for now and see what today brings.
Merritt was a disappointing pick last week in the 3M Open so it would be irritating to see him win unbacked and he looked overpriced anyway at 180.0179/1.
10:15 - August 4, 2023
According to the stats, there was only a very small advantage to the latter starters on day one of the Wyndham Championship, with the PM wave averaging 69.82, compared to the 70.13 averaged in the morning, but it looked far more pronounced to the eye.
With no wind and the course softened by a day of rain, the very late starters were popping in birdies all over the course and at the end of the day, the top four on the leaderboard, five of the top-six, and 12 of the top-15 had begun the event on Thursday afternoon.
Adam Scott, who sits tied for fifth and three off the lead and Thomas Detry and Ludvig Aberg, who both sit tied for seventh and four back, are the only three inside the top-15 places after round one that begun the event yesterday morning.
Pre-event pick, Russell Henley, leads after a very impressive bogey-free 62 and that's the second time in three years that he's opened with an eight-under-par 62 around Sedgefield Country Club.
He led by two here in 2021 and by four at halfway after a 64 in round two. He was still three in front after three rounds, and he was matched in-running at a low of just 1.341/3 before running out of steam in round four.
Henley dominated the World Wide Technology Championship in November, winning by four after sitting second after round one (trailing by one), and he traded at long odds-on at the Sony Open last year having trailed by a single stroke after round one (lost in a playoff), so his recent record suggests he'll hang around and clear first round leaders have a decent record here.
Since the Wyndham Championship returned to Sedgefield in 2008, eight players have held a clear lead after round one and three of them went on to win - Arjun Atwal (2009), Camilo Villegas (2014) and Brandt Snedeker, who was four strokes clear after shooting 59 on Thursday!
Course form tends to hold up nicely at Sedgefield and the leaderboard already contains players that have either won here previously or players that should have done.
Like Henley, Adam Scott traded at long odds-on here in 2021. He was matched at just 1.261/4 when he stood over a four-foot putt in extra time that would have given him the title, and one of Dave Tindall's each-way fancies, J.T Poston, is also in the top-five. He who won here in 2019.
Sitting in a tie for second is Byeong Hun An, who was third here in 2019, and the Canadian, Adam Svensson, who looks a reasonable price at around 12/113.00.
Svensson has only finished 31st and 78th on his two previous visits but he shot 61 in round two when playing here for the first time in 2019.
We've seen winners here this century trailing by five after round one and we've seen players make a playoff having trailed by as many as six, seven and even nine strokes so I certainly haven't given up on my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Martin Laird, who trails by four in a tie for seventh and I've now backed Kelly Kraft, who sits alongside him.
Rank outsiders can and do win here and as highlighted in the preview, we've seen three 1000.0999/1 shots win here in the last 11 years, so I was happy to take a small chance on Kraft at a ludicrous price this morning.
Like the leader, Kraft hit 12 of 14 fairways yesterday (Driving Accuracy is the key stat at Sedgefield) and although the 34-year-old Texan is yet to win on the PGA Tour, he has eight top-five finishes to his name, and he won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2015.
Odds in excess of 300.0299/1 look huge and I was happy to take 16.015/1 about him finishing inside the top-ten.
Other than the Kraft wagers, I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see how Henley fares today in round two.
He wasn't only finding fairways with regularity yesterday, he was finding the right sections of them to attack the flags, and if he can continue to drive the ball so well today, he might just establish a cozy lead again.
Wyndham Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Russell Henley @ 24.023/1
Si Woo Kim @ 27.026/1
Denny McCarthy @ 34.033/1
In-Play Picks:
Kelly Kraft @ 380.0379/1
Kelly Kraft (Top-10) @ 16.015/1
Troy Merritt @ 180.0179/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 u Kevin Yu @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1.5 u Martin Laird @ 210.0209/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1u David Lingmerth @ 280.0279/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
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