The Punter's In-Play Blog: Home hero Lowry four clear at the Irish Open

09:05 - September 13, 2026 - Odds-on Lowry looks unopposable

Rasmus Hojgaard, who was a 40.039/1 shot before the off, was matched at a low of 6.25/1 after a terrific start to his third round at the Irish Open yesterday afternoon but he lost his way badly on the back nine.

The 2024 winner birdied four of his first six holes and he stood on the 11^th tee on -5 for the day but that was as good as it got and he played his last six holes in four-over-par.

Having looked like a real contender, he'll begin the final round trailing by 10 and trading at more than 600/1601.00.

Fellow Dane, Jacob Skov Olesen, who was a 44.043/1 chance before the off, drew alongside the 36-hole leader, Shane Lowry, after nine holes of yesterday's third round and he was matched at a low of 2.89/5 but Lowry reasserted his dominance on the back nine with birdies at 10, 12 and 15.

The pre-event 44.043/1 chance, Olesen, then dropped a shot at the 18^th, so the Irishman, who was a 33/134.00 chance on the Betfair Exchange before the off, heads into today's final round with a four-stroke lead.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 08:50.

Shane Lowry -16 1.241/4
Jacob Skov Olesen -12 7.06/1
Joaquin Niemann -9 29.028/1
Tom McKibbin -7 240.0239/1
Daniel Rodrigues -7 710.0709/1
-6 and 320.0] bar

Spain's Eugenio Chacarra was the last man to lead a DP World Tour event by four strokes with 18 holes to play and he failed to convert at the Indian Open in March but the previous eight players to lead by four all went on to win and over the last 30 years, four-stroke 54-hole leaders on the DP World Tour events have a 70% strike rate.

Those stats would suggest Lowry is fractionally short at just 1.241/4 but that's really not the case.

Olesen is the only player within six strokes of the Irishman and it's very hard to see him getting beat now.

Lowry layers, me included, will cling to the fact that he hasn't won an individual event in four years, and that was a 54-hole event (next week's BMW PGA Championship).

And another reason why I opposed him as early as Friday morning was his finishes at both the Abu Dhabi Championship in 2023 and the Cognizant Classic on the PGA Tour earlier this year

Having been tied for the lead with a round to go in Abu Dhabi, Lowry shot 76 to finish tied for 28^th and leading by three strokes with five holes to play at the Cognizant Classic, Lowry was matched at a low of just 1.031/33 but he lost his way badly late on, eventually losing by two strokes.

"I've never won in front of my four-year old...I only wanted it for her today."

Raw emotions from 54-hole co-leader Shane Lowry after letting a three shot lead slip away @The_Cognizant. pic.twitter.com/0hStLmlTGA

-- PGA Tour (@PGATour) March 1, 2026

That was the fifth time that he'd led or been tied for the lead with 18 to play since he last won so I felt like he was one to take on earlier in the week at a short price but it's very hard to see another late collapse now.

Clearly inspired by the home crowd and having won this event as an amateur in 2009, as well as the Open Championship at Royal Portrush 10 years later, he's going to be very tough to beat today and odds of less than 1/41.25 are still fair.

22:20 - September 11, 2026 - Lowry looking to win his national title for a second time

After a ridiculously slow day one in windy conditions on Thursday, when rounds were lasting in excess of six hours, they've managed to catch up at the Irish Open on Friday and we've reached the halfway stage at the Trump International Golf Links in Doonbeg.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 22:10.

Shane Lowry -11 2.186/5
Jacob Skov Olesen -8 8.07/1
Haotong Li -8 14.527/2
Niklas Norgaard -8 19.537/2
Joaquin Niemann -5 17.533/2
Rasmus Hojgaard -5 27.026/1
Tom McKibbin -5 29.028/1
Ewen Ferguson -5 36.035/1
Kazuma Kobori -5 80.079/1
-4 and 34.033/1 bar

After an eight-under-par 62 on Friday morning, Shane Lowry, who's looking to win the Irish Open for the first time in 17 years and for the first time as a professional, having won the event as an amateur in 2009 at County Louth Golf Club, leads by three at halfway and incredibly, that's the biggest halfway lead he's ever held on any Tour.

This is the 15^th occasion that he's led or been tied for the lead and he's looking to convert for just the fourth time.

He led by two at this stage at County Louth before winning in extra time but the only other time he converted a clear lead was at the Abu Dhabi Championship in 2019, when he led by a stroke.

He's led by one or two strokes on four other occasions but failed to convert.

With a 33% strike rate when holding a clear advantage and a 21% strike rate when leading or tied at halfway, he doesn't have a spectacular record, and neither do three-stroke 36-hole leaders on the DP World Tour over the last 30 years.

The last five to lead by three after two rounds have all been beaten and three-stroke 36-hole leaders on the DP World Tour over the last 30 years have a strike rate of 36.7%.

It's a very odd-looking leaderboard with three men tied for second, three ahead of the group of five tied for fifth so Lowry's actually six clear of all but three of the field but I still think he's too short at less than 5/42.25 given his stats when leading and given the record of three-stroke 36-hole leaders.

Lowry is a vastly experienced multiple winner with a major championship in his homeland on his CV but he's not a player I've ever wanted to chance at short odds and having layed him during the second round at 2.47/5, I was happy to oppose him further at 2.186/5 at halfway.

I may end up looking daft but taking on Lowry now at less than 6/4. Short enough given the tough finish and a very long way to go

-- Steve Rawlings (@SteveThePunter) September 11, 2026

Lowry obviously won't lack for support over the weekend and he may well shoot clear with the crowd encouraging him fervently but he's short enough given how hard it is to back up a low round.

Although still in search of his first victory on the DP World Tour, the market considers Denmark's Jacob Skov Olesen as the man most likely to win should Lowry fail and he's certainly due to get off the mark.

He won the Amateur Championship in foul conditions at Ballyliffin Golf Club just two years ago so it's not surprising to see him in-contention this week, but Haotong Li looks a better value option at around 14/115.00.

Li shot 63 in the final round of the Open Championship to finish third in 2017, and he finished fourth behind Scottie Scheffler at Royal Portrush last year so he has a fine links pedigree and he's also won the Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters at exposed links-like venues.

He looks fractionally big heading into the weekend but I'm happy to just take on the leader and to reassess on Sunday morning.

Bookmark Betting.Betfair for golf betting tips every week