The Punter's In-Play Blog: Two tied at the top in Bermuda

• Windy weather forces early start to round four

• Six men within one with 18 to play

• Halfway play Hadwin backed again 

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9:35 - November 16, 2025

With 18 holes to play at the Bermuda Championship, there are six men separated by a single stroke and it won't be long before play starts.

With extremely high winds forecasted, the tee times have been brought forward so the final three-ball kicks off at 13:16 UK time.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:30.

Adam Schenk -12 5.49/2
Braden Thornberry -12 9.08/1
Takumi Kanaya -11 7.06/1
Max McGreevy -11 7.06/1
Chandler Phillips -11 8.88/1
Adam Hadwin -11 9.417/2
Rikuya Hoshino -10 22.021/1
Vince Whaley -9 24.023/1
Seamus Power -9 [25.0}
Noah Goodwin -9 32.031/1
Frankie Capan -9 50.049/1
-8 and 150.0149/1 bar

There have been six previous renewals of the Bermuda Championship and two of the last three winners have been tied for the lead with 18 to play.

Trading at 5.69/2, last year's winner, Rafael Campos, was tied at the top with Andrew Novak, and two years earlier, Seamus Power, had been tied for the lead with Ben Griffin with 18 to play two.

Power was a 6/42.50 shot before round four in 2022, but the other four winners have trailed by between one and four strokes, and they've all been trading at-at least 5/16.00.

Brain Gay, who was tied for fifth and trailing by three in 2020, was as big as 27.026/1 with a round to go and the 2021 winner, Lucas Herbert, was trading at 8.07/1 when he sat sole third and four adrift, but that's the furthest any winner has trailed by with a round to go.

Adam Schenk is the narrow favourite but anyone that watched the third round would be wary of siding with him after his bizarre display of putting.

The routine changed numerous times and as highlighted in the tweet below, he even putted one-handed on occasions.

"I should write down all my putting thoughts so I could look back at them in 10 years and laugh at myself."

Whatever it takes

Fighting to keep his PGA TOUR card, @ACSchenk1 is hitting some putts one-handed @Bermuda_Champ ... and he shares the 54-hole lead. pic.twitter.com/hs1yl0VJLW

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 15, 2025

Vince Whalley, who sits tied for eighth, is the only player inside the top 12 that doesn't have the pressure of getting into the top 100 in the FedEx Cup standings by the end of next week, at the completion of the RSM Classic.

Whalley ranks 86^th so he should be safe, and Max McGreevy, who sits tied third, is also in a good position. He ranks at 100^th in the standings so a high finish will put him in a great position, and he probably doesn't need to win.

Everyone else is under extreme pressure and we're bound to see some nerves so I'm going to double down on yesterday's selection, Adam Hadwin.

Other than the 2022 winner here, Power, who trails by three, the veteran Canadian is the only player in contention that has previously tasted victory on the PGA Tour and he also ranks number one for Putting Average after round three.

He caught a bad break on the 18^th hole yesterday when his ball found a terrible lie in a greenside bunker and having dropped a shot there, the market has dismissed him too heavily.

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20:00 - November 15, 2025

The three-stroke 36-hole leader at the DP World Tour Championship, pre-event pick, Nicolai Hojgaard, set the tone for day three with a bogey at the first.

That was followed by a three-putt par from 17 feet on the par five second and he struggled all day thereafter, eventually posting a one-over-par 73 but he's still only two back with a round to play.

For the second year running, Rory McIlroy will begin the final round tied for the lead and the defending champ is the man to beat. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:50.

Rory McIlroy -13 3.3512/5
Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson -13 10.09/1
Tommy Fleetwood -12 8.615/2
Tyrrell Hatton -12 11.521/2
Matt Fitzpatrick -12 11.521/2
Rasmus Hojgaard -12 15.014/1
Angel Ayora -12 18.535/2
Laurie Canter -12 25.024/1
Ludvig Aberg -11 19.018/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -11 27.026/1
Justin Rose -11 42.041/1
-10 and 50.049/1 bar

There have been 16 previous renewals of the event at the Earth Course and two winners (Nicolai Hojgaard two years ago and Robert Karlsson in 2010) have trailed by three strokes in a tie for fifth place, but that's the furthest any winner has sat with a round to go, and as many as 10 of the 16 winners have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go.

That would suggest that Rory is a very fair price at more than 2/13.00 given he went off at around 7/24.50 but it's just too bunched a leaderboard to get stuck into a short priced favourite.

With eight of the world's best players separated by a single stroke and just two shots splitting the top 11, it's very hard to predict the winner with just one round to go.

There'll be much easier 54-hole leaderboards to assess in the future so I'm unwilling to get too involved but I have had a small play on Tyrrell Hatton at 12.011/1.

If Rory has a horror day tomorrow and he finishes worse than tied eighth, Hatton can win the Race to Dubai if he wins tomorrow, so there is a slight risk that he has that on his mind but it's a risk I'm happy to take.

He's twice finished runner-up here and back in 2016 he was matched at odds-on on five separate occasions during round four, hitting a low of 1.132/15, so it's a title he's perhaps due.

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8:30 - November 15, 2025

Play was suspended due to darkness at the Bermuda Championship yesterday, with a few groups yet to finish their second rounds, and playing in the same three-ball, Pierceson Coody and Matthew Riedel, have an opportunity to edge closer to the lead when they return to the course to play the 18^th hole.

Those two currently sit six off the lead in a tie for 15^th but they're the only players yet to finish their second rounds that are within 10 strokes of the lead. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 8:20.

Adam Hadwin -11 5.49/2
Chandler Phillips -10 7.06/1
Braden Thornberry -10 15.014/1
Max McGreevy -9 7.06/1
Noah Goodwin -9 11.010/1
Adam Schenk -8 20.019/1
Zac Blair -7 30.029/1
Harry Higgs -7 44.043/1
Vince Whaley -6 29.028/1
-6 and 40.039/1 bar

The halfway leader, Adam Hadwin, was in front after round one and if he goes on to take the title, he'll be the first winner here to make the early running.

This is the seventh edition of the Bermuda Championship, and all six previous winners have been outside the top 15 places after round one, trailing by between three and seven strokes.

The inaugural winner, Brendon Todd, was tied for the lead at halfway, but the last five winners have all been trailing after 36 holes.

The 2020 winner, Brian Gay, sat tied for 12^th and four back at halfway and Lucas Herbert was also four off the lead at this stage before he won in 2021.

The 2022 winner, Seamus Power, was only two adrift at halfway and the 2023 winner, Camilo Villegas, was three back, but last year's winner, Rafael Campos, trailed by five at halfway and he was trading at 150.0149/1 before a 62 on Saturday saw him tied for the lead with 18 to play.

Hadwin may well be bidding to become the first 18-hole leader to win and the first 36-hole leader to take the title since 2019 but at 38, he's looking to become the sixth winner in seven years to be aged 34 or above and bizarrely, he's looking to become the third winner in-a-row to begin the week ranked at 147^th in the FedEx Cup standings.

It's now eight years since Hadwin won his only PGA Tour title (the Valspar Championship) and the stats suggest it's tough to make the running here but he's just too big to ignore at 9/25.50 given he's generally a 7/24.50 chance on the High Street.

I was happy to chance Hadwin modestly at 5.59/2 but he's not my only halfway play.

Sitting tied for seventh and four off the lead, Harry Higgs is an interesting runner at a generous price.

Higgs led by two here with a round to go in the inaugural edition but his three-under-par 68 on Sunday wasn't enough to beat an in-form Brendon Todd, who had won the week before in Mexico.

He didn't play here for a couple of years, and he missed the cut in both his last two visits, in 2022 and 2023, but he did well to miss out on weekend employment three years ago given he sat eighth and two off the lead after round one. He followed Thursday's 64 with a 75 on Friday!

He's opened up with steady rounds of 68 and 67 this year and if he can keep that trend rolling, he'll be in-contention with 18 to play.

Sitting at 129 in the FedEx Cup Standings, he's going to feel the pressure over the weekend but the same can be said of everyone inside the top eight at halfway.

With the top 100 in the standings after next week's event, the RSM Classic, keeping their cards next year, the heat is on and Max McGreay, who sits tied for fourth, is the only player inside the top eight currently inside the top 100 but he ranks 100^th.

No bigger than 30/131.00 on the Street, I was happy to chance Harry at 46.045/1.

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16:10 - November 14, 2025

The second round of the Bermuda Championship is underway and I'll take a look at that event tomorrow, once they've reached the halfway stage, but for now I'm concentrating on the week's DP World Tour event - the DP World Tour Championship - where my sole pre-event pick, Nicolai Hojgaard, is three clear of the field at halfway. Here's the state of play with prices to back at 16:00.

Nicolai Hojgaard -12 3.929/10
Rory McIlroy -9 4.3100/30
Shane Lowry -9 16.531/2
Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson -9 20.019/1
Justin Rose -9 22.021/1
Daniel Hillier -9 36.035/1
Tommy Fleetwood -8 8.07/1
Robert Macintyre -8 18.535/2
Alex Noren -8 29.028/1
Laurie Canter -8 65.064/1
Tyrrell Hatton -7 38.037/1
Angel Ayora -7 48.047/1
Ludvig Aberg -6 50.049/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -6 50.049/1
-6 and 110.0109/1 bar

Looking back at the first 16 renewals of the tournament, all the stats suggest we need to be concentrating on the leading pack.

The 2023 winner, Nicolai Hojgaard, was two clear at halfway and four of the first five winners here were also in front after 36 holes.

Rory McIlroy sat tied for second and just one off the lead after 36 holes last year and although he was leading after round one, Robert Karlsson, who beat Ian Poulter in a play-off 15 years ago, is the only winner not to be sitting inside the top eight places at halfway. He shot a three-over-par 75 on Friday to drop to 12th, trailing by five, before bouncing back over the weekend.

Karlsson is the only course winner not to be within four strokes of the lead at this stage and Jon Rahm in 2022 and McIlroy ten years ago, are the only other winners not to be within three of the lead.

Since the turn of the century, 90 players have led a 72-hole DP World Tour stroke-play event by three strokes and 35 of them went on to win.

That's a very decent 39% strike rate suggesting the leader, who in two previous visits here has finished fourth and first, is very fairly priced at almost 3/14.00 but there are a few negatives.

Only one of the last 12 men to lead by three at halfway on the DP World Tour went on to win, there's a group of five players tied for second, one of which is the defending champion and three time former winner, Rory, and the last time Nicolai was in front here at halfway, he stuttered on Saturday, shooting a two-under-par 70 that saw him drop form two clear to tied fifth and three off the lead.

That was on a day of very low scoring, so it was quite a stumble given Matt Wallace shot ten strokes less that day and if he shoots a similar score tomorrow, he'll definitely lose the lead.

He bounced back brilliantly with a 64 on Sunday to win by two and up until this week, that was the only time that he's led or even been tied for the lead at halfway.

He clearly loves this track and it's encouraging to see that he's played both nines well.

He started slowly on day one, playing the first nine in one-under and the back nine in four-under and he did the opposite today, starting fast with a birdie at the opening hole and an eagle at two.

Nicolai Højgaard!!!

The 2023 Champion ties the lead after this approach at the second. #DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/VLdd3Cx2Mk

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 14, 2025

He turned for home in 30 and it could easily have been a couple of shots lower, but he only shot one-under on the back nine.

Rory is clearly Nicolai's biggest danger, and he ranks first for Driving Distance and Putting Average at halfway, but he wasn't great from tee-to-green today.

If he irons out the wayward approaches tomorrow, he's bound to go low and we can't rule out the in-form Tommy Fleetwood.

In search of his third win in seven starts, Fleetwood has already been matched at as low as 2/13.00 (tied for the lead after round one) but he was sloppy with the putter today (shot 71) and he looks short enough at 7/18.00 given he trails by four and that there are six men ahead of him.

All things considered, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and see what tomorrow brings. Hojgaard is paired with fellow Dane, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, in round three and that may lead to a nice and relaxed round and some low scores.

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