The Punter's In-Play Blog: Leaders look vulnerable on both Tours

• Major winner, Reed, looks dangerous in Germany

• 5/1 Cole the value at the John Deere Classic

• Pan and Stringer also chanced at big prices

10:00 - July 7, 2024

Ewen Ferguson and Jordan Smith are tied at the top of the leaderboard at the BMW International and Davis Thompson leads by two with a round to go at the John Deere Classic. Here are the two 54-hole leaderboards with prices to back at 09:50.

Jordan Smith -14 3.613/5
Ewen Ferguson -14 4.1
Roman Langasque -13 7.06/1
Jens Dantorp -13 13.012/1
Patrick Reed -12 7.613/2
David Micheluzzi -12 21.020/1
Matthew Southgate -12 23.022/1
Rikuya Hoshino -10 44.043/1
-9 and 120.0119/1 bar

Davis Thompson -21 2.021/1
Aaron Rai -19 5.04/1
Eric Cole -19 6.05/1
CT Pan -17 34.033/1
Hayden Springer -17 42.041/1
Luke Clanton -16 50.049/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -16 70.069/1
JJ Spaun -16 90.089/1
-15 and 150.0149/1 bar

This is not the first time that Jordan Smith and Ewen Ferguson have entered the final round of a DP World Tour event tied for the lead.

The two were tied at the top with a round to go at the Open de France in September last year and it didn't end well.

Smith shot 72 to finish tied second, beaten by two, and Ferguson finished tied for 10^th after a sorry 76 on Sunday, and the omens aren't great for the pair today either.

Haotong Li, in 2022, and Viktor Hovland, a year earlier, both converted three stroke leads and Ernie Els was tied for the lead when he won here 11 years ago but this isn't an easy place to convert a 54-hole lead and we've seen winners come from at least three back in four of the last six renewals at Golfclub München Eichenried.

With that in mind, it's worth keeping an eye on the early play. We saw Tom McKibbin matched at as high 1000.0999/1 and as low as 1.061/18 last Sunday when he came from off the pace to get into a playoff at the Italian Open and when Andres Romero won here five years ago, he was matched at 190.0189/1 during round four.

Having backed Ferguson at halfway, I'm going to sit and see how the day pans out but the if forced to pick one out now it would have to be major winner, Patrick Reed, who trails by just two.

Odds in excess of 6/17.00 look fair about the American and he's the one I'll be monitoring the closest later.

Over at the John Deere Classic, pre-event 25.024/1 chance, Davis Thompson, has moved two clear of the field, but he looks short enough at around even money.

The 25-year-old is the seventh man to lead by two through 54 holes at Deere Run this century but only two of the previous six went on to win. Steve Stricker in 2011 and Jordan Spieth in 2015.

On the only previous occasion that Thomspon has held a clear advantage, at the Rex Hospital Open on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022, he went on to win by a stroke but as many as three of the last six winners of this event were trailing by four with a round to go so he does look a bit vulnerable in front.

Thompson is yet to win on the PGA Tour but he did finish second at the American Express in January last year, having been tied for the lead with a round to go.

The market considers Aaron Rai as the man most likely to win should Thomspon fail from the front but he was unimpressive in contention again last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and at a point bigger, I prefer the chances of Eric Cole.

Like Rai and Thompson, Cole is also in search of his first victory on the PGA Tour but he's had his chances to get off the mark.

This is the fourth time he's began the final round in second or tied second, so he's got plenty of experience of being in-contention on the PGA Tour.

He lost a playoff at the Cognizant Classic to Chris Kirk last year and he finished second at the ZOZO Championship and third at the RSM Classic having sat second through 54 holes.

His performances in-the-mix have been regressive so that's a negative, but he can draw upon his previous experiences, and he looks fractionally big at 5/16.00.

The front three could very easily all get nervous playing together in the final three-ball so I'm also happy to play C.T Pan and the first round leader, Hayden Springer, at big prices.

20:25 - July 5, 2024

It looked for much of today that Scotland's Ewen Ferguson would head into the weekend with a huge lead at the BMW International Open.

The 27-year-old was matched at as low as 2.01/1 as he led by five after his extremely impressive eight-under-par 64 this morning, that included a double-bogey, but afternoon starter, Romain Langasque, who was a 70.069/1 chance before the off, ate into his lead as the day wore on.

The Frenchmen went on to post a seven-under 65 to cut the lead to just two. Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 20:15.

Ewen Ferguson -13 3.211/5
Romain Langasque -11 6.25/1
Patrick Reed -8 11.010/1
Bernd Wiesberger -8 16.015/1
Jordan Smith -8 16.015/1
David Micheluzzi -8 55.054/1
Matthew Southgate -8 60.059/1
-7 and 30.029/1 bar

Ferguson is an industry best 2/13.00 with the Sportsbook and a very fair price at slightly bigger on the exchange.

He won the second of his two DP World Tour titles (the ISPS Handa World Invitational in 2022) on the last occasion he led a DP World Tour event at this stage, and halfway leaders have a good record at this venue.

The 36-hole leader won in each of the three renewals around the turn of the century and in the last 20 years we've seen Miguel Angel Jimenez, Niclas Fasth, Martin Kaymer, Ernie Els and Haotong Li all convert 36-hole leads at this venue.

Since 2000, we've seen 15 men hold a clear lead at halfway at Golfclub München Eichenried and six of them went on to win.

Add in the fact that Langasque is far from prolific (one win on the Challenge Tour and one on the DP World Tour in 227 starts), and that he's not convincing in-contention, and Ferguson starts to look like a value play.

Patrick Reed and Bernd Wiesberger are both dangerous from five back, but all things considered, I was more than happy to back Ferguson at 3.39/4 to win his third title.

Play starts early tomorrow in Germany, presumably because of the threat of poor weather.

Over at the John Deere Classic, C.T Pan and Aaron Rai, have hit the front and they lead by two on -14, but the first-round leader, Hayden Springer, has only just began his second round.

I won't be around at all tomorrow to update the blog but if you're planning to bet in-running in the States at halfway, don't be afraid to play someone from off the pace.

We've seen only three halfway leaders or co-leaders kick on and win since JP Hayes converted from the front in 2002 and as many as four of the last ten winners were outside the top-ten after two rounds.

We've seen three winners come from five back after 36 holes and last year's winner, Sepp Straka, was seven shots off the pace at halfway.

10:45 - July 5, 2024

The second round of the BMW International Open is well underway on the DP World Tour and at the time of writing, pre-event 60.059/1 chance, Ewen Ferguson, leads by three, despite a double-bogey six at the short par four 16^th.

I'll be back this evening with a look at that event at the halfway stage but for now I'm concentrating on this week's PGA Tour event - the John Deere Classic - where Hayden Springer leads by two after an historical first round at Deere Run.

With current form figures reading MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-54-10, Springer was a largely unconsidered 350.0349/1 chance before the off but after becoming the 14^th man in history to break 60 on the PGA Tour, he's now trading at 12.011/1.

An impressive stamp on the resume for his rookie year

Inside Hayden Springer's historic 59 @JDClassic. pic.twitter.com/areZCgBauw

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 4, 2024

JT Poston won the John Deere Classic wire-to-wire two years ago having led by two after round one, but this is a tournament which often goes the way of a slow starter.

Last year's winner, Straka, sat 11 off the lead in a tie for 133^rd after round one and Jordan Spieth trailed by six after day one when he won the title for the first time 11 years ago and he was eight adrift after the opening round when he won it again in 2015.

Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker have both won here recently having trailed by seven after the first round and the 2021 winner, Lucas Glover, was five off the pace after day one.

There are 46 players within seven of Springer and the pre-event favourites, Sepp Straka and Sungjae Im, are amongst the group of 20 players tied for 27^th on -5 but the one I like on that score after the opening round is the recent Myrtle Beach Classic winner, Chris Gotterup, who looks a juicy price at 200.0199/1.

Gotterup went off favourite to win the Barbasol Championship the week after finishing fourth in this event two years ago but he missed the cut there and lost his way a bit after that but his very impressive six-stroke victory in May shows just how talented he is.

Despite missing six of 14 fairways yesterday, Gotterup still hit 16 of 18 greens and he got up-and down successfully on the two occasion the dancefloor was missed.

He finished the round nicely, birdying three of the last six holes, and he might just make a big move today.

JDC In-Play Picks:
Chris Gotterup @ 200.0199/1
Eric Cole @ 6.25/1
C.T Pan @ 36.035/1
Hayden Springer @ 42.041/1

BMW International Pre-event Pick:
Adrian Otaegui @ 75.074/1

In-Play Pick:
Ewen Ferguson @ 3.39/4

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