The Punter's In-Play Blog: Three tied at the top in Mexico

• Echavarria still the man to beat

• Eight clear at the top

• Cognizant winner added with a round to go

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09:45 - November 10, 2024

There's just one round to go at the World Wide Technology Championship and with eight players separated by just two strokes, it's a tricky tournament to assess. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:40.

Nico Echavarria -16 5.24/1
Carson Young -16 7.06/1
Justin Lower -16 7.26/1
Max Greyserman -15 6.611/2
Austin Eckroat -15 8.88/1
Joe Highsmith -15 11.010/1
Ben Griffin -14 15.5
Maverick McNealy -14 15.5
-12 and 80.079/1 bar

Nico Echavarria was matched at just 2.89/5 after he'd played his first 12 holes in four-under-par yesterday.

With two par fives to come, he was odds-on to go deeper but he finished the day with a run of six straight pars and the gap he looked like he may open up just didn't materialise. He's still the most likely winner though...

The Colombian finished fifth at the Abierto de Chile on the Latinoamerica Tour in 2018, having been tied for the lead with a round to go but he was impressive when converting from the front at the ZOZO Championship two weeks ago. That was the fourth time he'd held a clear lead with 18 to play and it was the fourth time he'd converted so his record suggests he's one to trust on a Sunday.

Carson Young finished second on the Canadian Tour three years ago having been tied for the lead with a round to go and he won the Panama Championship on the KF Tour two years ago having trailed by one with a round to go so he has a fairly solid record in-contention although he was disappointing at last year's Puerto Rico Open, when he finished only fifth having led by four at halfway.

Justin Lower looks the least likely of the three leaders to take the title. The 35-year-old needs to back up yesterday's 63 (the lowest round of the day), which is never easy and he's yet to win on either the Korn Ferry Tour or PGA Tour.

He's held a clear lead three times previously with a round to go and he's finished second twice on the Korn Ferry Tour and fourth on the PGA Tour and on the only occasion that he's been tied for the lead with 18 to play, at the Utah Championship on the KF Tour in 2019, he finished 28^th!

Of the three players tied for fourth and one off the lead, the halfway favourite, Max Greyserman is the most likely to succeed according to the market and the hot putter may well be happier out of the final three-ball but as highlighted yesterday, he's missed a couple of chances to get off the mark recently and I'm happy to continue to swerve him.

Austin Eckroat was an impressive three-stroke winner of the Cognizant Classic back in March (tied for the lead with a round to go) and he's my idea of the value with a round to go.

The only other man within one of the lead, Joe Highsmith, was disappointing on Sunday at the Black Desert Championship last month when he fell from second to sixth with a lame 71 and he's another I'm happy to ignore.

With two seconds and a third to his name on the PGA Tour and two thirds and a second on the KF Tour, Maverick McNealy should perhaps be known as Maverick McNearly and he's another I'm happy to overlook.

He's contended reasonably well in the past and he may well fall over the line sooner rather than later but I'm happy to have Echavarria, Ben Griffin and now Eckroat onside and see how it all pans out.

Of those outside the top-eight places and as many as four off the lead, Tom Hoge is a big price at three figures but it's highly likely that at least one of the leaders go too low for those that far back to catch them.

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16:10 - November 9, 2024

Having been trading at around 11/43.75 after yesterday's second round of the Abu Dhabi Championship, Paul Waring, who led by five, shortened up to around 2/13.00 by the time he teed off in round three and he hit a low of 2.68/5 after he made a great par save at the first and a birdie at the second but his lead has been cut to just one after he posted a one-over-par 73 and he looks vulnerable in front.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:00.

Paul Waring -18 4.77/2
Niklas Norgaard -17 5.49/2
Tommy Fleetwood -15 8.415/2
Shane Lowry -15 9.617/2
Thorbjorn Olesen -15 14.5
Sebastian Soderberg -15 27.026/1
Tyrrell Hatton -14 16.5
Robert MacIntyre -14 27.026/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -14 30.029/1
Thomas Detry -14 38.037/1
Francesco Laporta -14 60.059/1
Ugo Coussaud -14 100.099/1
Rory McIlroy -13 25.024/1
-13 and 120.0119/1 bar

Waring looked fairly priced at almost 3/14.00 with a five-stroke 36-hole lead, but I'm in no rush to side with him now with a one-stroke advantage with 18 to play.

He won his one and only title, the Nordea Masters in 2018, having been tied for the lead with a round to go but on the two occasions that he's held a clear lead (two strokes), once on the Challenge Tour and once on the DP World Tour, he's finished second and third.

After today's over-par round, the 39-year-old needs to lift himself to go again and at a slightly bigger price, if forced to back one of the front two, I'd plump for the recent British Masters winner, Niklas Norgaard, but I'm more than happy to swerve them both.

We've only had two previous renewals here so the data is limited but should Norgaard go on to take the title, he'd be emulating the first two course winners (Thomas Pieters and Victor Perez) who both trailed by one with a round to go.

There's a gap of two back to remainder so Waring and Norgaard, who will be accompanied by Shane Lowry in tomorrow's final three-ball, have a little wriggle room, but the 2019 Open Champion is far from the only class act breathing down their necks.

I certainly haven't given up on Tyrrell Hatton, who I backed after round one, and I've now also added Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard, who is desperate for a high finish in order to defend his DP World Tour Championship title next week.

A triple-bogey seven at the 14^th on day one stopped him in his tracks, but he's clawed his way back in to contention nicely after his opening round and the added incentive of a place in the field next week should he climb up into the top-50 in the Race to Dubai standings might just be enough to see him go low enough to win this week.

He's shot 65-66 over the last two days so he's found his groove and I thought he was worth chancing at 30.029/1.

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09:10 - November 9, 2024

We've reached the halfway stage of the World Wide Technology Championship and after a blustery first day, when nobody bettered five-under par, as many as 30 players shot -6 or better on a benign Friday and Carson Young, who now sits in solo third, shot 61, but there's a familiar pair tied at the top on 12-under-par.

Max Greyserman and Nico Echavarria were paired together in the final group at the ZOZO Championship two weeks ago in Japan and they'll be paired together again today.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:00.

Max Greyserman -12 3.39/4
Nico Echavarria -12 5.79/2
Carson Young -11 11.521/2
Dylan Wu -10 28.027/1
Maverick McNealy -9 17.016/1
Austin Eckroat -9 19.018/1
Kelly Kraft -9 80.079/1
-8 and 32.031/1 bar

Greyserman eagled the last to draw alongside Echavarria and he now heads the market but I'm far from convinced the market has got it got it right.

I couldn't have been more impressed by the way Echavarria closed out the ZOZO a fortnight ago after Greyserman had stumbled on the back-nine and that was the second time that the 29-year-old had given up a great chance to get off the mark on the PGA Tour in a matter of months.

Greyserman wobbled at the Wyndham Championship a couple of months ago, when he was matched at just 1.061/18 in-running, and he appeared to get a bit nervous in Japan too.

Greyserman was matched at a low of 1.261/4 when he led by a stroke with just three holes to play at the ZOZO but after Echavarria had birdied the 16^th to draw alongside him, the American hit a poor drive at 17.

To his credit, he got up-and-down nicely from off the green to par the penultimate hole but after the Columbian had nailed his drive down the fairway on the par five finishing hole, Greyserman hit another stray tee-ball to put himself firmly behind the eight ball.

He came agonisingly close to making the birdie at 18 that would have taken the event to extra time, but the bottom line is, he's now twice given up a golden chance to win on the PGA Tour.

"Here we go again ... This is going to be fun."

Two weeks after narrowly missing out on a playoff, @MaxGreyserman will tee it up in the final group once again with @Nicolas_Ech.

They share the lead at 12-under heading into the weekend @WWTChampionship. https://t.co/SWAUkEwLIX pic.twitter.com/uGqISvMz9b

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 9, 2024

In contrast, Echavarria was very impressive in-contention, as he was when winning his first PGA Tour title at the Puerto Rico Open last year, and having backed him yesterday at 32.031/1, I'm tempted to top up at odds in excess of 11/26.50.

The Colombian is no bigger than 5/16.00 on the High Street and nor should he be.

With the wind predicted to stay away over the weekend, it's hard to look too far down the leaderboard.

Scoring is going to be low again over the next two days and it's going to be very hard to make up ground on the leaders.

The first four home last year were all inside the top-five places at halfway and I envisage a similar outcome again this time around although I have had a small wager on Ben Griffin at 28.027/1.

After a slow start, the pre-event 32.031/1 chance is now within four after yesterday's 63 (ten shots better than his opening round!) and I thought he was a fair price given he's no bigger than 22/123.00 elsewhere.

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15:00 - November 8, 2024

As is so often the case on the PGA Tour, day one ended at the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico without the entire field managing to finish their opening rounds.

The final three-ball had a hole to play and Joe Highsmith was tied for 11^th on three-under-par with one to play but with a solitary stroke separating the ten players above him, it's was a tough tournament to gets to grips with.

Play has resumed today but Kevin Streelman, Rico Hoey and Tom Whitney were tied at the top last night after the trio posted five-under-par 67s on a tricky day for scoring yesterday but it's Max Greyserman that narrowly heads the market after his four-under-par 68 yesterday morning.

At 9/110.00, Greyserman is the only man trading at a single-figure price and that shows just how open the tournament is with three rounds to play.

After yesterday's blustering beginning, a benign day is forecasted today so scoring will be much better so anyone within three, four or even more at this early stage, is more than capable of leading at halfway.

The picture will be much clearer tomorrow but the one I like at this stage is the ZOZO Championship winner, Nico Echavarria, who had this to say after yesterday's three-under-par 69.

"It was a good round, good start, bogey-free. A lot of wind for the morning."

It's always tough to go again after a victory so it that was a great start to the week and I thought he looked a fair price at 32.031/1.

Over on the DP World Tour, Paul Waring has shot a course record 11-under-par 61 around the Yas Links in the second round of the Abu Dhabi Championship, finishing with this spectacular approach into the par five 18^th.

Shot of his life
Lowest career round
Course record 61 (-11)
Five shot lead@PaulWaringGolf with a grandstand finish from 250 yards #ADGolfChamps | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/nVvHxDD7a8

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 8, 2024

Waring's 19-under-par total is the lowest 36-hole total on the DP World Tour, and it sees him leading by five! Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 14:50.

Paul Waring -19 3.8514/5
Tommy Fleetwood -14 4.94/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -14 9.417/2
Niklas Norgaard -14 14.013/1
Johannes Veerman -14 17.016/1
Tyrrell Hatton -12 10.09/1
Matt Wallace -12 28.027/1
Laurie Canter -12 50.049/1
Ugo Coussaud -12 150.0149/1
Robert MacIntyre -11 42.041/1
Thriston Lawrence -11 55.054/1
Sebastian Soderberg -11 90.089/1
Francesco Laporta -11 120.0119/1
Rory McIlroy -10 26.025/1
-10 and 170.0169/1 bar

Rory McIlroy was matched at just 5.59/2 when he stood on the 17^th tee but a triple-bogey there stopped him in his tracks, and he now trails by nine with 36 holes to play.

Waring is only the tenth player to lead by five at this stage of a DP World Tour event since 1996 and seven of the previous nine went on to win so it's impossible to make a case for taking him on at almost 3/14.00.

Bizarrely, if we expand that to players that have led by five or more since '96, the strike rate worsens with only 11 of 17 converting but it's still difficult to make a case for laying the Englishman at bigger than 11/43.75.

The 39-year-old, who was a 300.0299/1 shot before the off, can hardly be described as prolific given his sole success came at the Nordea Masters back in 2018, and having to back up today's super-low round is going to be tough, but he has quite a bit of wriggle room if he can keep his head tomorrow.

Having backed Tyrrell Hatton and layed Tommy Fleetwood in the Top 5 Finish market yesterday, I'm going to sit on my hands and see what tomorrow brings but I can't say I wasn't tempted to back the leader at what looks a juicy price.

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18:50 - November 7, 2024

This week's PGA Tour event - the World Wide Technology Championship - is underway in Mexico and I'll take a look at that one tomorrow but for now I'm concentrating on the first of this year's two playoff events on the DP World Tour - the Abu Dhabi Championship - where Tommy Fleetwood shows the way after a course record equalling 10-under-par 62 around the Yas links on day one.

On a day of low scoring, which saw only seven of the field of 70 fail to break par, world number ten, Fleetwood, who was playing in the final three-ball of the day, birdied the par five finishing hole to edge ahead of Thorbjorn Olesen and Johannes Veerman by a stroke.

Up-and-down for birdie at the last for an opening round 62 @TommyFleetwood1 ties the course record at Yas Links. #ADGolfChamps | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/Hhv4jRebzy

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 7, 2024

Fleetwood is now the firm favourite at 3.3512/5 but that looks short to me and I'm happy to oppose him in the win market with Tyrrell Hatton, who shot -8 today and in the Top 5 Finish market at odds-on.

This is only the second time that Fleetwood has held a clear lead after round one of a professional event but he's been tied for the lead seven times, so we've got some data to look at it.

Fleetwood won this event at the old venue - the Abu Dhabi Golf Club - back in 2018, when defending the title, having been tied for the lead after day one but that's the only time he's gone on to win when leading or co-leading any event after the opening round.

He always strikes me as a player that performs better from off the pace than he does when leading and even though he was tied at the top after round one in 2018 before winning, he was trailing by two after round two and three and his finishing positions whenever he's led or co-led read 4-1-9-5-22-57-5-10.

On the only previous occasion he held a clear lead after round one he finished fifth in the Wells Fargo Championship on the PGA Tour in May last year and he looks worth taking on at less than 1/21.50 in the Top 5 Finish market.

As highlighted in the preview, Hatton was someone I like before the event, and he looks a great alternative to Fleetwood at bigger than 11/26.50.

Hatton is generally a 4/15.00 chance on the High Street, so I was happy to take 6.86/1.

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Abu Dhabi Championship In-Play Trades

Tyrrell Hatton backed at 6.86/1 to win
Tommy Fleetwood layed at 1.454/9 to finish inside the top 5
Nicolai Hojgaard backed at 30.029/1

World Wide Technolgy Championship In-Play Pick

Nico Echavarria @ 32.031/1
Ben Griffin @ 28.027/1
Austin Eckroat @ 9.08/1

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World Wide Technology Championship preview

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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