The Punter's De-brief: Hatton and Straka close out fine victories

• Hatton stays strong for record-equalling fifth Rolex Series win

• Straka dominant in the Californian desert

• Read Steve's Farmers Insurance Open preview here

Europe's Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald probably enjoyed last week's golf.

A few days after another learning experience at the Team Cup, the Englishman watched on as two of his heroes from the 2023 Rome match closed out victories in fine style on the DP World and PGA Tours.

There were, in fact, rather a lot of similarities in the two wins: both followed solid starts by moving into contention then confirmed the opportunity on Saturday before mopping them up on Sunday.

Let's take a closer look at both in turn.

Market got the Dubai favourites right

Chasing a hat trick of Dubai Desert Classic titles on the Majlis Course at Emirates GC Rory McIlroy was the pre-event favourite and backed at an average of 5.49/2 while the tournament debutant Jon Rahm was an average 8.373/10 with Hatton 11.010/1.

But both McIlroy and Hatton were matched to more or less the same amount - and it was more than was matched on Rahm.

A good start for the market and it worked out for those who trusted the Englishman, not least because Rahm missed the cut and McIlroy looked rusty, only hitting his straps in the final round.

Hatton opened with a 71 to lie six back of the lead in T48 and was backed as high as 34.033/1 but was generally 22.021/1 as the second round got under way. A Friday 65 put him bang in the hunt and from that point on the market was sure he was the biggest threat.

Saturday saw a decisive spell and it also provided the volatility that Sunday perhaps lacked.

Scot Ewen Ferguson was the halfway leader. He'd been backed at 330.0329/1 early in the week and was matched at a low of 4.94/1 but limped home at the weekend with 74-75.

The Kiwi Daniel Hillier - who had been top price 470.0469/1 before the off - turned a one-shot 36-hole deficit into a four-shot advantage early in the third round and was backed as low as 2.56/4. He then stumbled with three back nine bogeys before a closing pair of birdies saw him edge one shot clear.

Hatton made an eagle-2 at the second but then swapped birdies and bogeys but in staying within one shot of Hillier he had done enough to become the clear favourite on 2.0811/10 with 18 holes to play.

A birdie at two for Hatton drew the top pair level in the final round and from that point his price shortened hole by hole, first dipping under 2.01/1 with that birdie and he was down to 1.321/3 after six holes when leading Hillier by two and Laurie Canter and Shaun Norris by four.

Canter was backed as high as 100.099/1 pre-event and to an average of 63.062/1. He got within two shots of Hatton on the back nine and was backed as low as 9.417/2.

But with three holes to play, and just a one shot lead over Hillier, Hatton was still 1.21/5. Market faith was strong and ultimately well-placed as he eased his way to the win.

Tyrrell Hatton's winning formula #HeroDubaiDesertClassic | #RolexSeries

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 20, 2025

Hatton's 2025 LIV Golf schedule will kick in soon with tournaments in Riyadh and Adelaide in February.

He's not a fan of Augusta National but did finish ninth there last year and another grumbler about the Masters venue, Sergio Garcia, won at Emirates the year he slipped on a green jacket. Hatton is 33/134.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook to emulate the Spaniard (and also Danny Willett) in completing the Majlis-Masters double.

Course conundrum cracked

As noted above, over in California at The American Express the market was again shrewd about the state of the leaderboard.

In this case, it was less about assessing the class of those on it than understanding the perils and potential of the field playing three courses before a 54-hole cut.

At halfway there were 13 golfers within four shots of the lead and only two of them were priced in single figures, they were in a tie for third and they had not been among the pre-tournament favourites.

Straka - backed as high at 85.084/1 and to an average of 62.061/1 before the off - was now 4.67/2.

And Mark Hubbard - a general 140.0139/1 shot early in the week - was 7.26/1.

The key was that the pair had, unlike 10 of the other 13 at the top, already played the toughest course on the rota and those 10 had 36 holes of it to come.

Straka took full advantage with a third round 64 to open up a four-shot lead on the field which left him priced 1.674/6.

The veteran Charley Hoffman - backed at an average of 274.0273/1 before the off and down to a low of 6.86/1 in-play - nipped at Straka's heels but the market didn't blink: the Austrian remained an overwhelming favourite.

Justin Thomas was the best of the favourites. He'd been 17.016/1 before the start and was matched at 5.49/2 during play but he was like the others: Straka was bogey-free through 69 holes, building a buffer that kept them all at arm's length even with a clumsy dropped shot at 16.

Dawg mentality pic.twitter.com/XFGVVbKuhm

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 20, 2025

It was the 31-year-old's third PGA Tour title and he's now won in three distinct fashions: the first win in 2022 came with a fine final round 66 on a tough track (PGA National) in tricky conditions and the second at Deere Run in 2023 was courtesy of a sensational 63-65-62 finish.

This was his first experience of a 54-hole lead and he was impressively measured with it.

He was seventh in the 2023 PGA Championship and eighth last year at Quail Hollow which is this year's venue for the second major of the year. Straka is 100/1101.00 with the Sportsbook.

Read Steve's Farmers Insurance Open preview here.

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