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Lengthy new venue awaits
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Home challenge dominate the market
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van Tonder fancied after improved effort in the Joburg
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Tournament History
Dating all the way back to 1893, the South African Open is the second oldest National Open in the world, with only the Open Championship, which was first staged back to 1860, dating back further.
The South African Open has been co-sanctioned between the Sunshine and DP World Tour since 1997.
Last year's edition was also scheduled to be a co-sanctioned event but due to COVID-19 travel restrictions in place in the UK from South Africa the majority of DP World Tour players withdrew and the event was revised as a sole-sanctioned Sunshine Tour event.
Venue
Blair Atholl Golf & Equestrian Estate, Lanseria, Johannesburg, South Africa
Course Details
Par 72, 8,161 yards
Although it's at altitude, so the ball travels around 10% further, at over 8,000 yards, Blair Atholl is still a very long golf course. In fact, it's the third longest in the world.
Designed by Gary Player, and situated on his estate, the Blair Atholl has Bentgrass greens and water is in play on as many as 11 holes.
Blair Atholl is a brand-new track and it's hosting the South African Open for the first time, but it has been used once before on the Sunshine Tour. The venue hosted the Blair Atholl Championship in October last year which was won by Luke Brown in 12-under-par.
For more on the course at Blair Atholl, please see the hole-by hole guide here on the course's website.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 10:00 on Thursday
Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2021 - Daniel van Tonder -16 32.031/1
2020 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout -18 8.615/2 *
2020 - Branden Grace -21 25.024/1 *
2018 - Louis Oosthuizen - 12 9.08/1
2018 - Chris Paisley -21 400.0399/1
2017 - Graeme Storm -18 (playoff) 180.0179/1
2016 - Branden Stone -14 60.059/1
*Two editions staged in 2020
What Will it Take to Win the South African Open?
As always with a new venue, we're operating in the dark to a certain extent and it's virtually impossible to work out what skillset will be required to win this week.
Given the length of the track, it's only natural to assume that Driving Distance will be a big factor but I'm not totally convinced.
Some of the holes are so long that even the biggest of big hitters are going to struggle to reach the greens in two and the result of the Blair Atholl Championship appears to back that theory up. Here's the top three along with their Driving Distance rankings on the Sunshine Tour for the 2021/22 season.
Luke Brown -12 (ranked 49th for DD)
Neil Schietekat -10 (ranked 77th for DD)
Keagan Thomas -9 (ranked 28th for DD)
Is There an Identikit Winner?
This is a tournament that has changed quite significantly in recent years. It used to be a highly valued prize for the home contingent and between 2002 and 2011, ten of the 11 winners were experienced South Africans.
Trevor Immelman, Tim Clark and Retief Goosen have all won the tournament twice recently and Ernie Els has taken the title five times in total but it's lost some of its gravitas over the last decade or so.
The last four winners have all been well-fancied South Africans but five of the six winners before Louis Oosthuizen in 2019 were from overseas.
Market Leaders
Dean Burmester's very decent recent form figures in his homeland, reading 4-2-1-43-4-2-18-2, include his two fourths in the last two editions of this event and he's been in reasonable form this year with an 11th placed finish in the Open Championship and a fourth in the Sanderson Farms Championship on the PGA Tour the highlights.
His prestigious length off the tee should be an asset this week but his very recent form is a bit disappointing, reading 37-32-MC-54, and I'm happy to swerve him.
Branden Grace, who won the first of the two editions staged in 2020, has been plying his trade on the LIV Tour of late and to some success too.
Grace won the LIV Golf Invitational Portland in July and after a quiet spell he finished inside the top-ten at the Nedbank Challenge last time out in what was his first appearance in his homeland since he won this title almost three years ago.
Charl Schwartzel also plays on the LIV Tour now he too has tasted success, winning the first event staged there - the LIV Golf Invitational London in June.
Schwartzel is still looking to win his national title for the first time but he hasn't played in the last couple of editions of the event either so taking the title can hardly be described as a burning desire.
Grace and Schwartzel add a bit of class to the line-up, but I do wonder if we'd have seen them here if they had the option to play regularly elsewhere.
Thriston Lawrence is the only player anywhere near the top of the market to have played the venue last October. He shot an eight-under-par 64 in round four to finish solo sixth, having sat tied for 25th with a round to go and that was the lowest round of the week.
Lawrence has just enjoyed a terrific first season on the DP World Tour. He won the season opening Joburg Open, an event reduced to just 36 holes, as well as the European Masters and he ended the season in 14th place on the Race to Dubai but he hasn't been in great form of late and his 33rd placed finish when defending last week was a disappointing performance.
Selection
I've got a couple of fancies for the Find Me a 100 Winner column but for now my only selection is the defending champion - Daniel van Tonder.
We haven't seen a successful defence since Trevor Immelman won the event back-to-back in 2003 and 2004 but I was happy to play van Tonder after last week's third in the Joburg, where he putted very nicely.
That was his best finish since last year's success at the Gary Player Country Club and he looked a bit big given his upturn in fortunes.
He's tends to hold his form once he's found it and in 2020 he won four times in six starts so I was happy to chance him at 44.043/1.
Selection:
Daniel van Tonder @ 44.043/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter